Tropical Storm Arlene hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on June 30, 2011

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Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall on the northeast coast of Mexico south of Tampico at 5am EDT this morning as an intensifying tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Wind gusts as high as 46 mph were recorded in Tampico last night, and intermittent heavy rain and winds gusting up to 34 mph have affected Brownsville, Texas today. The Brownsville Airport picked up 1.31" of rain as of 10am EDT, and Arlene has dropped rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches over extreme South Texas so far, according to radar-estimates of rainfall from the Brownsville radar. As Arlene pushes inland today, heavy rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches are likely over portions of Mexico, which will probably cause several million dollars in flooding damage. However, Arlene's rains are likely to provide a benefit to agriculture in the tens of millions of dollars, since the region of Mexico affected is experiencing their worst drought in over 50 years. It's fortunate that Arlene ran out of room in the Gulf of Mexico when it did; microwave satellite images of the storm at landfall show that Arlene was well on its way to establishing a complete eyewall, and would have likely become a hurricane if it had had another twelve hours over water.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Arlene at landfall: 4:45am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts from Tropical Storm Arlene as estimated by the Brownsville, Texas radar. The radar is not able to see far enough to the south to capture the main rain areas from Arlene.

No additional action expected in the Atlantic over the coming week
There are no other areas of concern in the Atlantic today, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the coming seven days. We've gotten our first storm of the season a bit on the early side; the typical first storm does not occur until July 9 in the Atlantic. High wind shear of 20 - 50 knots rules the Caribbean and the surrounding waters that tend to breed early season storms, which will make formation of an early July storm difficult.

Jeff Masters

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1003. MrNatural
3:28 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
OTHERWISE...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID/UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT RIDGE
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A SECOND RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DESERT STATES AND EXPAND WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE QUICK
REPLACEMENT OF THE FIRST RIDGE WILL LEAVE NO OPPORTUNITY FOR A
DISCERNIBLE PATTERN CHANGE. LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS.
SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGES THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA-BREEZE/DIURNAL HEATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CHANCES AND COVERAGE ARE
LOW SO HAVE GONE WITH 10 POPS AT BEST.

What is strange about this drought is that the Coastal areas of Texas usually have sea-breeze showers, this past year there have been very few of those I guess that is due to High pressure also.



I know the feeling. This drought has been brutal in Austin. But to answer your question, the strength of the high pressure just to the north of us is so strong and dominant, that it is capping even the sea breeze storms that you talk about.
Member Since: July 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 267
1002. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:27 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
1001. BobinTampa
3:26 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In the Pacific...

- Adrian
- Beatriz
- Calvin


it would be awesome if the 'H' storm was Hobbes.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
1000. VAbeachhurricanes
3:25 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In the Pacific...

- Adrian
- Beatriz
- Calvin


yeah I caught that, sorry haha
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6667
998. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:23 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


We havent even had our B storm yet...


In the Pacific...

- Adrian
- Beatriz
- Calvin
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
997. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:23 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
996. VAbeachhurricanes
3:22 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
look like hurricane calvin on Canadian.
Interesting...


Oh talking about pacific, my bad
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6667
995. PRweathercenter
3:16 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
What ever happened to weather456? He was featured Blogger from st.Kitts.
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
994. HurricaneDean07
3:09 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
look like hurricane calvin on Canadian.
Interesting...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
993. EYEStoSEA
3:08 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
992. Thundercloud01221991
3:05 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sydney don't get snow, but the mountains west of Sydney have had snow 3 times so far this winter, Down near my parents place, where i am going on Tuesday, there is a 28in base of snow and expecting more snow on Tuesday.


then you cant call it mid winter... more like mid-between fall and spring time
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
991. EYEStoSEA
3:03 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
990. HurricaneDean07
3:01 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting miguel617:
Mexican news reported last night that at least one death will be attributed to Arlene, a 54 year old man who stepped on a downed powerline in the city of Tampico.


Ouch! i hate when that happens. well... umm... err... no comment.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
989. AussieStorm
2:54 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
I'm out, getting cold here, Goodnight all, Stay safe
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
988. hydrus
2:49 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting MrstormX:
Oddly enough the RUC recognizes a weak low pressure and spin in the NE Gulf within 24 hours. Doesn't that coincide with the CMC and UKMET?

Either way, it will be interesting to watch. Water temps are plenty warm, and conditions are not to hostile for some kind of slow development...Persistence and pressure drops over those buoys will tell us whats up..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21729
986. NRAamy
2:45 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
961. HurricaneHunterJoe 6:53 AM PDT on July 01, 2011
Good day from Soooooo Cal everybody


how many hurricanes you hunted in So Cal?
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
985. TampaTom
2:42 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting TampaTom:


Nope... that seems to be the way they are headed...


Oh, you betcha.... They're gonna try to figure out why my coffee is cold...
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
984. bohonkweatherman
2:38 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
OTHERWISE...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID/UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT RIDGE
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A SECOND RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DESERT STATES AND EXPAND WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE QUICK
REPLACEMENT OF THE FIRST RIDGE WILL LEAVE NO OPPORTUNITY FOR A
DISCERNIBLE PATTERN CHANGE. LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS.
SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGES THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA-BREEZE/DIURNAL HEATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...CHANCES AND COVERAGE ARE
LOW SO HAVE GONE WITH 10 POPS AT BEST.

What is strange about this drought is that the Coastal areas of Texas usually have sea-breeze showers, this past year there have been very few of those I guess that is due to High pressure also.

Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
983. TropicalTracker2011
2:37 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning guys, working on my July 2011 Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic at this time.

Wind shear across the Atlantic basin is high right now, but the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a big pattern shift, and if I knew how to post the GFS shear forecast from here (Maps and radar --> Model maps), I would. It shows low wind shear across the entire Atlantic basin with the exception of an ULL in the Central Caribbean. Does not look good for late July and on.

Hey, Sometimes the GFS could show ULL but in about a week check it again because it might not be there on the run. Let me know when you post your July Tropical Outlook ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 96
982. bigwes6844
2:33 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
It is hinting at a gulf low off S.W.Florida...Here is link....Link
thank you i was asking if somebody had that link towards the local news had said that something may develop
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2749
981. MrstormX
2:32 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Oddly enough the RUC recognizes a weak low pressure and spin in the NE Gulf within 24 hours. Doesn't that coincide with the CMC and UKMET?

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
980. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:32 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Good morning guys, working on my July 2011 Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic at this time.

Wind shear across the Atlantic basin is high right now, but the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a big pattern shift, and if I knew how to post the GFS shear forecast from here (Maps and radar --> Model maps), I would. It shows low wind shear across the entire Atlantic basin with the exception of an ULL in the Central Caribbean. Does not look good for late July and on.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
979. MrstormX
2:27 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
It is hinting at a gulf low off S.W.Florida... Here is link....Link


thx for the link, bookmarked it
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
978. MrstormX
2:27 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Something *could develop in here, but as Teddy pointed out there is no consistency yet established for such a scenario.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
977. caneswatch
2:26 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



One can only hope. We've been getting good soaking rains the past week in Jupiter. However, a country mile more is needed.


Morning All.


Morning Progressive.

It'd definitely be nice to get that here in south Florida.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
976. hydrus
2:25 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting MrstormX:
My link to the UKMET isn't responding, anybody know what it's forecasting?
It is hinting at a gulf low off S.W.Florida...Here is link....Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21729
975. hurricane23
2:24 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



One can only hope. We've been getting good soaking rains the past week in Jupiter. However, a country mile more is needed.


Morning All.


South Florida atmospheric sounding is very unstable this morning...Should be another wild afternoon.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
974. Vincent4989
2:23 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
3 days till 4th of July!
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
973. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:22 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
If you've done nothing wrong then you've got nothing to worry about.
Yep, what they said in Nazzi Germany and Soviet Union just to name 2 out of many.

"The price of freedom is eternal vigilance."
-- Thomas Jefferson

*****
Martin Niemoller:

"First they came for the Communists, but I was not a Communist so I did not speak out.
Then they came for the Socialists and the Trade Unionists, but I was neither, so I did not speak out.
Then they came for the Jews, but I was not a Jew so I did not speak out.
And when they came for me, there was no one left to speak out for me."
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
972. islander101010
2:22 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
seven days is a long time in a forecasted active yr. tropical wave s of puerto rico is fighting shear now but in a few days that might change.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4862
971. weathermanwannabe
2:20 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Good Morning and Everyone Have a Happy 4th of July Weekend. High pressure settling in again across the Gulf Region so it's gonna be hot for the 4th so keep hydrated (with your drink of choice). Started the weekend last night with some good Cajun cusine and Cold ones. Enjoy model watching over the next few weeks; Central-Atlantic MDR sheer hostile so maybe something closer to home in a few weeks...Ya Never Know.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9317
970. miguel617
2:19 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Mexican news reported last night that at least one death will be attributed to Arlene, a 54 year old man who stepped on a downed powerline in the city of Tampico.
Member Since: January 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
969. ProgressivePulse
2:17 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

MOISTURE LVLS MAY INCREASE FARTHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE
LESSER ANTILLES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EAST FLOW WILL BE DEEPER BY
THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHWARD.
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE,
BUT STORMS MAY BE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE IN PLACE
AS THE WAVE PASSES.



One can only hope. We've been getting good soaking rains the past week in Jupiter. However, a country mile more is needed.


Morning All.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
968. MrstormX
2:13 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
My link to the UKMET isn't responding, anybody know what it's forecasting?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
967. AussieStorm
2:10 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


no snow???


how could it be mid winter without snow

Sydney don't get snow, but the mountains west of Sydney have had snow 3 times so far this winter, Down near my parents place, where i am going on Tuesday, there is a 28in base of snow and expecting more snow on Tuesday.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
966. MrstormX
2:08 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW - GFS shows a trough split next week, CMC shows one over the weekend. No model support behind either solution. ECMWF & NOGAPS are about dead as could be. We're in for a dull week.


I hate dull weeks...
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
965. TropicalTracker2011
2:04 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW - GFS shows a trough split next week, CMC shows one over the weekend. No model support behind either solution. ECMWF & NOGAPS are about dead as could be. We're in for a dull week.Actually bro shear is supposed to be weak in the carribean as the trough leaves and if say a wave got into the carribean it would have a good environment for developing and its fine if the models dont pick up on it. give it till monday. by then the models should pick up on something
Member Since: June 30, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 96
964. Thundercloud01221991
2:03 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all, How goes it with the weather 9000miles away from me. Here, typical mid winter, cold and wet, next month should be nice and dry but more colder.


no snow???


how could it be mid winter without snow
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
963. CybrTeddy
1:54 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
FWIW - GFS shows a trough split next week, CMC shows one over the weekend. No model support behind either solution. ECMWF & NOGAPS are about dead as could be. We're in for a dull week.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24456
962. RIDGES
1:54 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting Guysgal:


More oil in your backyard.
Member Since: December 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1064
961. HurricaneHunterJoe
1:53 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Good day from Soooooo Cal everybody
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
960. DARPAsockpuppet
1:53 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
If you've done nothing wrong then you've got nothing to worry about.
Member Since: March 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
959. Guysgal
1:49 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting Jax82:
A serious eddy about to break off, just a matter of time.


so what will it mean if the eddy does break off?
Member Since: May 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 218
958. AussieStorm
1:44 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting BobinTampa:



there are clouds moving in different directions off florida. Other than that, nobody is really helping me kill off these last 7.5 hours before the long weekend.

I'm trying to be totally unproductive here people! A little help?

I'm way past beer o'clock here and your not even close, hahahaha. Bad thing is, I am not allowed to drink, grrrrrr, I hope ya have a sunny long weekend, I'm hoping for a snowy week next week when i am down at the snow fields with my family.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
957. bigwes6844
1:44 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
I saw early this morning on the local weather that a disturbance could formed in the central GOM by this weekend going towards the fourth of july. Anybody got any runs about that?
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2749
956. AllBoardedUp
1:38 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Big Bro been watching for a loooong time. Just a different set of eyes.
Very true.

On a different note, I just spent 1600 dollars on plumbing for natural gas leaks. The one in the yard was from both a rusty line and a shifting ground from lack of rain. The plumber found leaks in the attic as well. So I guess I was lucky in that regard.

The neighbor has 2 or 3 water leaks in his yard in the past 3 or 4 months. Lucky they were on the city side of his meter, but he has a lot of clunks of mud where St. Augustine grass once stood.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
955. RipplinH2O
1:38 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Interesting math trivia: this blog entry showed 842 posts when I came on this morning yet we were at post #954 at the time meaning 112 posts have been removed. Gonna be a long season if that becomes a trend...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
954. BobinTampa
1:35 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Quoting Pipejazz:
strangest thing. since I set that troll on ignore, half the posts are now invisible of others including kelly, tomtaylor, ncstorm, privateidaho,mraamy and others. What's up??


go up to the blue bar right before the comments section begins. right underneath that, there is a filter dropdown. Put it on 'show all'.

of course, maybe you can't see this. That would be ironic.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
953. Pipejazz
1:32 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
strangest thing. since I set that troll on ignore, half the posts are now invisible of others including kelly, tomtaylor, ncstorm, privateidaho,mraamy and others. What's up??
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 182

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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