Floods overwhelm North Dakota levees; floods kill 175 in China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 23, 2011

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Flood waters from North Dakota's Souris River are pouring over the levees protecting Minot, North Dakota today, and flood heights are expected to rise to the highest levels in recorded history tonight. The Lake Darling flood control reservoir located about 15 miles upstream from Minot is full to overflowing, and record releases of water are occurring to prevent the lake's dam from over-topping. By this weekend, the Army Corps of Engineers will open the dam's flood gates to a maximum flow rate of 20,000 cubic feet per second, which is roughly double the flow rate that the levees in Minot can handle. Water began flowing over the levees yesterday, forcing the mandatory evacuation of 12,000 residents. By Sunday, water levels on the Souris River are expected to peak at four feet above the previous all-time flood height, set in 1881. Torrential rainfall in Canada on Sunday and Monday, combined with very heavy rainfall and snow melt over North Dakota over the past month, are responsible for the record flood. The Souris River Basin near the Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan received four to seven inches of rain Sunday into Monday. Flood heights along the Souris River near the Canadian border upstream from Minot are already two feet above the previous all-time highest mark, and that pulse of water is now arriving in Minot. The unprecedented flood is expected to keep much of Minot underwater for at least two weeks. Fortunately, no new heavy rains are expected over the next five days, though up to 1/2" of rain could fall over portions of the Souris River watershed.


Figure 1. Still frame from a Youtube video of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota flowing over the levees in that town. The video was shot on Wednesday June 22, 2011, from a North Dakota National Guard helicopter.


Figure 2. Observed (blue line) and forecast (green line) stage of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota. The river is currently at its 3rd highest level on record, and is expected to rise above the record flood stage of 1558' tonight. The record was set back in 1881. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.

Record rains in China kill 175, do $5 billion in damage
Torrential rains triggered severe flooding in eastern China this week, with the death toll for June floods now standing at 175, with 86 people missing. Ironically, the same region experienced severe drought at the beginning of June. The estimated $5 billion in damage from the floods would make 2011 the third most expensive year for floods in China in the past decade. This year is the second consecutive year floods have caused exceptional damage in China. Last year, Western China saw summer precipitation more than 200% above average, and torrential monsoon rains triggered catastrophic landslides that killed 2137 people and did $759 million in damage. Monsoon floods in China killed an additional 1911 people, affected 134 million, and did $18 billion in damage in 2010, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This was the 2nd most expensive flooding disaster in Chinese history, behind the $30 billion price tag of the 1998 floods that killed 3656 people. China had floods in 1915, 1931, and 1959 that killed 3 million, 3.7 million, and 2 million people, respectively, but no damage estimates are available for these floods. During the period 2000 - 2009, China averaged $3.7 billion in damage and 674 deaths per year due to floods and landslides, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. This does not include the toll from typhoons. Speaking of typhoons, Tropical Storm Meari, currently located a few hundred miles east of the Philippines' Luzon Island, is expected to track north-northwestwards towards China today and Friday. By Saturday, Meari is expected to be a Category 1 typhoon, and will spread heavy rains over eastern China, worsening the flooding situation there--though the heaviest rains will likely remain offshore.



Figure 3. Rainfall amounts in excess of 18 inches (450 mm) fell in Eastern China southeast of Shanghai in a 1-week period, June 13 -19, 2011. A China Daily report from June 18 described the rains in parts of Zhejiang Province as unprecedented. High waters broke 100-meter (300-foot) holes in levees, inundating nearby villages. Some homes were buried in 3 meters (10 feet) of water. This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Image credit: NASA.



Figure 4. Visitors watch as water gushes out from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the Yellow River in Central China's Henan province, June 22, 2011. Image credit: Xinhua.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday or Wednesday. There will be a strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf next week, which would tend to keep any storm that might form far to the south, with impacts limited to Mexico and perhaps South Texas.

Jeff Masters

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Thanks everyone who answered . I hope it doesn't get too strong but brings some rain my way. Had a little from 94L but only about 6.5" for the year so far.
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325. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Pressure at San Andres,Colombia is 1007mb and yesterday at this time was at 1009mb. Is something trying to spin up in that area ?


That's the tropical wave the models want to spin up just east & along the coast of Central America into the BOC.
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Quoting NRAamy:
it is a word, Taz....

:)




the card was not a winner
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Pressure at San Andres,Colombia is 1007mb and yesterday at this time was at 1009mb. Is something trying to spin up in that area ?


It's located near the monsoonal low down there. That low will interact with the wave in the central Caribbean either tomorrow or Saturday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32825
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


guess the nhc is still smoking something LOL *rolls eyes*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


That will likely change within the next 48-72 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32825
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
it's raining in Crestview Fl right now. Wow, so that what it looks like. I almost forgot what rain looked and sounded like! Rain baby rain! Florida Panhandle love ya! :)


Had about 1.75" since yesterday here, until about 1/2 hour ago. Now have had over 3" total. Haven't seen rain that hard in a loooooong time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Louisiana Hurricane History
David Roth
National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
it's raining in Crestview Fl right now. Wow, so that what it looks like. I almost forgot what rain looked and sounded like! Rain baby rain! Florida Panhandle love ya! :)


Congrats....we takes what we gets...hopefully that stuff coming in around Panama City will hold together and make it up our way!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Pressure at San Andres,Colombia is 1007mb and yesterday at this time was at 1009mb. Is something trying to spin up in that area ?
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315. Skyepony (Mod)
A downpour hit Beijing Thursday afternoon, partially paralyzing road traffic and disrupting subway transportation during the evening rush hour. Heavy rains pounded most parts of the Chinese capital, and the city received 35 millimeters of precipitation by 5 p.m., according to a statement issued by the Beijing Meteorological Bureau. "Precipitation in the Shijingshan district reached 165 millimeters by 5:30 p.m.," said Sun Jisong, chief engineer of the bureau. According to Sun, the heavy downpour may stop around 8 p.m., while light rains are expected to continue into Thursday night and Friday morning. Waterlogged roads have slowed and even suspended traffic in some downtown areas, said Tian Yin, a spokesman with the city's municipal traffic management bureau. "The water in a low-lying section of the southern Third Ring Road is knee-deep," said a Beijing resident surnamed Wang. Wang said she saw a dozen cars suffer from engine failures as a result of the flooded roads, with drivers having to push their cars forward with their bare hands.

A driver surnamed Cao said it took her nearly an hour and a half to reach a destination just a few kilometers away, due to the gridlocked roads. More than 7,000 traffic policemen are working to ease the gridlock, according to the traffic management bureau. A Xinhua reporter saw more than 200 people queuing up to wait for taxis near the Changchunjie subway station. The rain also wreaked havoc on the operation of the city's Line 1, Line 13 and Yizhuang Line subways, according to the Beijing Subway Operation Corporation. Transportation on parts of Line 1 and Line 13 was temporarily halted, as some of the stations on those lines experienced minor flooding. Transportation was fully resumed on both of the lines by 8 p.m. Parts of the Yizhuang Line are still closed, as high winds blew off part of a roof in one of the line's stations. As of 8:30 p.m., over 220 flights into and out of Beijing have been delayed for more than an hour or canceled due to the adverse weather, according to a statement posted on the Beijing Capital International Airport's website.
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Wow! Today must be my lucky day! Another downpour. But...I wish it would go to Texas and Florida, they need it worse than we here do.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32825
it's raining in Crestview Fl right now. Wow, so that what it looks like. I almost forgot what rain looked and sounded like! Rain baby rain! Florida Panhandle love ya! :)
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2011 NOAA Extreme Weather Information Sheets

View or Print the 2011 NEWIS
Alabama
Florida
Florida Central
Florida East Central
Florida North Central
Florida Northwest
Florida South
Florida Southwest
Florida West Central

Louisiana
Louisiana Southeast
Louisiana Southwest

Mississippi
Texas

Atlantic States
Georgia
North Carolina
North Carolina East Central
North Carolina Northeast
North Carolina Southeast

South Carolina
South Carolina East Central
South Carolina Northeast
South Carolina Southeast

U.S. Caribbean Territories
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Link
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311. Skyepony (Mod)
Ring of fire is alive & shaking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
Model analysis shows that we could be dealing with a strong system in the gulf next week. All interests along the Northern Gulf should pay attention and prepare for possible hurricane force winds in the next 7-10 days.


Where are you seeing this? The models indicate that large scale troughing will be concentrated well to the north, with the ridge remaining strong so that landfall over northeast Mexico/south Texas (but more so Mexico) is likely.
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Darker purples developing in the SW Carib
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting NRAamy:
you're on early tonite


Actually usually never check from Home but we'z tryin to figure the weather out here locally to see if we gonna go camp at z river tonight....looks like a big fat NO!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
you're on early tonite
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
haha!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
Cartman!!!!!!!!!

:)


I'm not FAT.....I'm Big BONED!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
Cartman!!!!!!!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
For sure Jason that water is warm but not as warm this time over the last couple years well in gom anyway which was huge for the gulf coast.
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301. traumaboyy
11:11 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
Model analysis shows that we could be dealing with a strong system in the gulf next week. All interests along the Northern Gulf should pay attention and prepare for possible hurricane force winds in the next 7-10 days.


Will be keeping an eye on that one!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2265
298. Tazmanian
10:59 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting NRAamy:
it is a word, Taz....

:)



holy we cow thanks for helping me won $30 by telling me that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
296. MrMixon
10:59 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
plzs tell me that ought is a word am playing crssword 5$


"ought" is, indeed, a word. A judgmental, parental word... but a word nonetheless.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
295. NRAamy
10:58 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
it is a word, Taz....

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
294. FrankZapper
10:56 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Model analysis shows that we could be dealing with a strong system in the gulf next week. All interests along the Northern Gulf should pay attention and prepare for possible hurricane force winds in the next 7-10 days.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
293. beell
10:54 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


A bit irreverent, don't you think Beell? I mean come on, you can't refuse to bow down to God's Forecast System.


LMAO, Levi.

You never miss an opportunity to ding a model that is beyond your willingness to dig into its deep dark secrets!

: - )
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:53 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
its only june look how warm the water is!!
just updated those on my blog page to show jun 23 temps
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
290. Tazmanian
10:49 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
plzs tell me that ought is a word am playing crssword 5$
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:49 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
23.65N/93.85W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
288. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:48 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
15.75n/72.25w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
285. Patrap
10:43 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Eastern U. S. - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
284. Levi32
10:41 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting alfabob:

I think the way I phrased it made sense, but what I'm saying is that we started off with the equatorial cold anomaly. Because this anomaly existed, it is creating a positive feedback mechanism in which the rate of cooling is much greater than the usual or seasonal amount. So the GOG may usually cool at this time, but the anomalies are increasing at a rate which is not normal (cold anomalies). If it went with the seasons usual speed of cooling than the anomalies would be constant, regardless of the initial temperatures.


Ok, I think I see what you meant. I don't see how the anomalies have anything much to do with the gradual net cooling associated with the southern hemisphere winter though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
283. j2008
10:37 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
The area in the GOM looks a little worse than it did earlier, but it is still a very interesting area. It looked like it might have tryed to gather a rotation.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
281. Levi32
10:37 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting beell:


Cool. We'll see how it goes.

No particular allegiance to any model. The GFS is good for sketching! Maybe looking something like this.

Valid next Monday.

Photobucket



A bit irreverent, don't you think Beell? I mean come on, you can't refuse to bow down to God's Forecast System.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
279. beell
10:32 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting NRAamy:
I can't help it, beel.... for some reason, yours is one the most intriging avatars on here....

the problem is, I think of all the outfits you could put on it....

hey, maybe you could get Cyclone's hurricane suit...

;)



Lucky for all of us my artistic skills are limited. I do have a couple of variations on the theme donated by a couple of folks!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
278. Levi32
10:30 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting alfabob:

Yea that is the normal fluctuations because the GOG usually cools around this time, the problem is that it isn't just cooling but the anomaly is drastically increasing (because there was an equatorial anomaly to begin with causing the feedback mechanism to intensify).


If that statement were true, there would be no cold anomaly. It would be normal, and thus show up as a neutral anomaly.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
277. CarolinaBeachGirl
10:22 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Not a drop of rain here so far:(
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
276. srada
10:20 PM GMT on June 23, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I live here in southern Pender, we had winds at least up to 50 mph. But we got rain ;)


Yeah, you are more inland than I am which the storms are always stronger..I am in Castle Hayne so keep safe!
Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 774

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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