Floods overwhelm North Dakota levees; floods kill 175 in China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 23, 2011

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Flood waters from North Dakota's Souris River are pouring over the levees protecting Minot, North Dakota today, and flood heights are expected to rise to the highest levels in recorded history tonight. The Lake Darling flood control reservoir located about 15 miles upstream from Minot is full to overflowing, and record releases of water are occurring to prevent the lake's dam from over-topping. By this weekend, the Army Corps of Engineers will open the dam's flood gates to a maximum flow rate of 20,000 cubic feet per second, which is roughly double the flow rate that the levees in Minot can handle. Water began flowing over the levees yesterday, forcing the mandatory evacuation of 12,000 residents. By Sunday, water levels on the Souris River are expected to peak at four feet above the previous all-time flood height, set in 1881. Torrential rainfall in Canada on Sunday and Monday, combined with very heavy rainfall and snow melt over North Dakota over the past month, are responsible for the record flood. The Souris River Basin near the Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan received four to seven inches of rain Sunday into Monday. Flood heights along the Souris River near the Canadian border upstream from Minot are already two feet above the previous all-time highest mark, and that pulse of water is now arriving in Minot. The unprecedented flood is expected to keep much of Minot underwater for at least two weeks. Fortunately, no new heavy rains are expected over the next five days, though up to 1/2" of rain could fall over portions of the Souris River watershed.


Figure 1. Still frame from a Youtube video of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota flowing over the levees in that town. The video was shot on Wednesday June 22, 2011, from a North Dakota National Guard helicopter.


Figure 2. Observed (blue line) and forecast (green line) stage of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota. The river is currently at its 3rd highest level on record, and is expected to rise above the record flood stage of 1558' tonight. The record was set back in 1881. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.

Record rains in China kill 175, do $5 billion in damage
Torrential rains triggered severe flooding in eastern China this week, with the death toll for June floods now standing at 175, with 86 people missing. Ironically, the same region experienced severe drought at the beginning of June. The estimated $5 billion in damage from the floods would make 2011 the third most expensive year for floods in China in the past decade. This year is the second consecutive year floods have caused exceptional damage in China. Last year, Western China saw summer precipitation more than 200% above average, and torrential monsoon rains triggered catastrophic landslides that killed 2137 people and did $759 million in damage. Monsoon floods in China killed an additional 1911 people, affected 134 million, and did $18 billion in damage in 2010, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This was the 2nd most expensive flooding disaster in Chinese history, behind the $30 billion price tag of the 1998 floods that killed 3656 people. China had floods in 1915, 1931, and 1959 that killed 3 million, 3.7 million, and 2 million people, respectively, but no damage estimates are available for these floods. During the period 2000 - 2009, China averaged $3.7 billion in damage and 674 deaths per year due to floods and landslides, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. This does not include the toll from typhoons. Speaking of typhoons, Tropical Storm Meari, currently located a few hundred miles east of the Philippines' Luzon Island, is expected to track north-northwestwards towards China today and Friday. By Saturday, Meari is expected to be a Category 1 typhoon, and will spread heavy rains over eastern China, worsening the flooding situation there--though the heaviest rains will likely remain offshore.



Figure 3. Rainfall amounts in excess of 18 inches (450 mm) fell in Eastern China southeast of Shanghai in a 1-week period, June 13 -19, 2011. A China Daily report from June 18 described the rains in parts of Zhejiang Province as unprecedented. High waters broke 100-meter (300-foot) holes in levees, inundating nearby villages. Some homes were buried in 3 meters (10 feet) of water. This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Image credit: NASA.



Figure 4. Visitors watch as water gushes out from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the Yellow River in Central China's Henan province, June 22, 2011. Image credit: Xinhua.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday or Wednesday. There will be a strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf next week, which would tend to keep any storm that might form far to the south, with impacts limited to Mexico and perhaps South Texas.

Jeff Masters

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Cantore tweets

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
AT 921PMCDT...A LEVEE ON THE MISSOURI RIVER FAILED 3 MILES NORTH OF BROWNVILLE, NEBRASKA...CAUSING FLASH FLOODING (cont..)

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
...(cont) PERSONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 IN ATCHISON COUNTY MISSOURI NEED TO EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
425. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Any blogger would like to save this sat. picture or select one any other day with less clouds, where you can observe the amount of ilumination we generate.... If it happens that we are hit by a hurricane this season, you bloggers will be able to compare (with an aftermath picture), how much electrical power is lost during the first weeks, months... We won't be able here in PR, to do so for a while, maybe due to lost Internet and electrical power....

the link is

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi? B ASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Lat est�I ON=Volcanoes&SECTOR=Soufriere_Hills&PRODUC T=vis_ir _background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&SIZE=Full& ;PATH=CONUS/ focus_regions/Volcanoes/Soufriere_Hills/vis_ir_bac kground/goes&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TY PE=Insta nt




Considering how our (censored word) governor has been wasting the electric company's money on advertising instead of maintenance if we do get hit by a hurricane we should be ready to use logs and fire.
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424. j2008
Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all. Just cracked the 60F mark here in Sydney. Anyone care to send me some warm weather?

Evening Aussie. I got pleanty of heat to send you. It reached 111 at my house today, I would be very glad to send you some of it.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all. Just cracked the 60F mark here in Sydney. Anyone care to send me some warm weather?


You can trade with me. We've had low to upper 90s and sometimes low to mid 100s here for several weeks now. I'd love 50s and 60s, and the fact that I like cooler weather naturally makes it even better. :)
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A mi gente in PR....

Not looking forward to seeing another here in Nassau anytime soon... our last one was 2004, and we didn't even get the worst - Grand Bahama and Abaco did.

I was in San Juan in 2000 and saw some of the damage left over from George... I wonder if that big hotel ever reopened...
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Any blogger would like to save this sat. picture or select one any other day with less clouds, where you can observe the amount of ilumination we generate.... If it happens that we are hit by a hurricane this season, you bloggers will be able to compare (with an aftermath picture), how much electrical power is lost during the first weeks, months... We won't be able here in PR, to do so for a while, maybe due to lost Internet and electrical power....

the link is Link




It'd be interesting to see that, but it would come at the cost of getting hit by a hurricane.
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Afternoon all. Just cracked the 60F mark here in Sydney. Anyone care to send me some warm weather?
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah. Seen only one hurricane in my lifetime, lucky considering we live on an island in the middle of the ocean in the middle of the tropics.


Any blogger would like to save this sat. picture or select one any other day with less clouds, where you can observe the amount of ilumination we generate.... If it happens that we are hit by a hurricane this season, you bloggers will be able to compare (with an aftermath picture), how much electrical power is lost during the first weeks, months... We won't be able here in PR, to do so for a while, maybe due to lost Internet and electrical power....

the link is

Link


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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
417. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:

So you are of the Jeane and George's hurricane generation...


Yeah. Seen only one hurricane in my lifetime, lucky considering we live on an island in the middle of the ocean in the middle of the tropics.
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Quoting MTWX:

That actually tomorrow! The time on the right is since may 29th


Oh ok, Keep an eye out for earthquakes in the coming day's don't ask just theory.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting JLPR2:


Been without those since Hugo, in other words before I existed.(LOL) Maybe I should consider getting new ones too.

So you are of the Jeane and George's hurricane generation...
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BTW, anybody remember where I can find the analysis of mean [monthly] location / height of the AB high? I have a link to these charts, but on my other computer...
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413. MTWX
Quoting blsealevel:
Looks like around 27 - 28 days were going to get nailed by some gamma radiation am i reading that right?

That actually tomorrow! The time on the right is since may 29th
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412. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


I'm seriously taking in consideration acquiring the missing "tormenteras" for 4 windows in the house... Imagine a San Felipe, or another Hugo... Even Isabel, that passed north of us with that gigantic eye wall..

Like Levi posted and some bloggers have discussed - the Sea of Guinea temp. effect, looks like an active CV season...



Been without those since Hugo, in other words before I existed.(LOL) Maybe I should consider getting new ones too.
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ITS RAINING!!!!
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Looks like around 27 - 28 days were going to get nailed by some gamma radiation am i reading that right?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting KoritheMan:


One needs to do a lot of averaging in this field, for sure.
Yes it took me a while,and that's why my brain hurts.But I think it's a good prediction.
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Quoting JLPR2:


And if our current steering pattern holds PR might break its 13 year break. :\

Hoping for a quiet Cave Verde Season.


I'm seriously taking in consideration acquiring the missing "tormenteras" for 4 windows in the house... Imagine a San Felipe, or another Hugo... Even Isabel, that passed north of us with that gigantic eye wall..

Like Levi posted and some bloggers have discussed - the Gulf of Guinea temp. gradient effect, looks like an active CV season...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


All of what solutions?
Well some of the models were forecasting a strong cyclone.Some were forecasting a moderate cyclone.Others were forecasting a weak system.So I added it all up and then divided and came up with the mean.
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Quoting bappit:

I hear it is a replica. Merriam-Webster: "a copy exact in all details". Are you suggesting they built it and advertised it as a replica for the money?


Money money by the pound... seems like that's in some people's minds in these days... Though the Ark is a beautiful masterpiece...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Check out this solar storm model. Earth is the yellow dot..

Impact is expected on June 24th at 0700 UT plus or minus 7 hours.


That is one of the coolest things I've ever seen!!!
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Evening all.

Getting a few pop-up showers and some thunder and lightning from this lone cell. I wonder if this is a harbinger of things to come later this weekend....



It was very hot and humid here today. Even the easterlies we had most of the day were just a lot of hot wind....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I see people are still talking about the subject that I left off.Interesting indeed.Now anywayyy the models are still consistant on developing that system.I think a 50-60 mph storm is at best.I adding on the solutions up and came out with the average.And the average is right around the 50-60 mark.


All of what solutions?
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401. beell
Quoting Skyepony:
Check out this solar storm model. Earth is the yellow dot..

Impact is expected on June 24th at 0700 UT plus or minus 7 hours.


That link just got saved. Thanks.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16924
400. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:

Quite warm SSTs east of the Leward Islannds.... Add to that a possible active CV season... and... We'll see...



And if our current steering pattern holds PR might break its 13 year break. :\

Hoping for a quiet Cave Verde Season.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I see people are still talking about the subject that I left off.Interesting indeed.Now anywayyy the models are still consistant on developing that system.I think a 50-60 mph storm is at best.I adding on the solutions up and came out with the average.And the average is right around the 50-60 mark.


One needs to do a lot of averaging in this field, for sure.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, models can be consistent for a while, then diverge, its still so very far out. It could happen of course though, something to watch for at least anyway.


Yes, but as I said, even if we do not get a tropical cyclone from this system (which is still possible), at least we are cognizant of what it is they are latching onto.

Sometimes we see ghost storms within the models. This time, they are actually wanting to develop something that is conspicuous.
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397. Skyepony (Mod)
Check out this solar storm model. Earth is the yellow dot..

Impact is expected on June 24th at 0700 UT plus or minus 7 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
396. beell
Minot, ND Updated Evacuation Map (1564.5 MSL) 06/23 5PM CDT

City of Minot, ND Website
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16924
Quoting sunlinepr:


Face recognition computer report...



yes...I am a Marxist...
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394. j2008
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, models can be consistent for a while, then diverge, its still so very far out. It could happen of course though, something to watch for at least anyway.

This storm should help us see how accurate the forcast modles will be this year.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Well, lets get ready for the next flood event....

Man building full-scale Noah's ark
Yahoo headlines... Link



100,00 visitors for break-even.... Money???

I hear it is a replica. Merriam-Webster: "a copy exact in all details". Are you suggesting they built it and advertised it as a replica for the money?
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Quoting Tazmanian:


they cant afford a drought...no pun intended...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see people are still talking about the subject that I left off.Interesting indeed.Now anywayyy the models are still consistant on developing that system.I think a 50-60 mph storm is at best.I adding on the solutions up and came out with the average.And the average is right around the 50-60 mark.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
390. Skyepony (Mod)
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2011 ; e-View
doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-10-05021.1

Raman Lidar Profiling of Tropospheric Water Vapor over Kangerlussuaq, Greenland

Ryan Reynolds Neely, III*
University of Colorado Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Boulder, CO

Jeffrey P. Thayer
University of Colorado Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, Boulder, CO

Abstract
A new measurement capability has been implemented in the Arctic Lidar Technology (AR-CLITE) system at the Sondrestrom upper atmosphere research facility near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland (67.0° N, 50.9° W), enabling estimates of atmospheric water vapor through the troposphere. A balloon campaign was simultaneously conducted to calibrate and validate the new lidar water vapor measurements. Initial results show that height-resolved profiles up to 10 km with better than 10% error are obtained with 30-minute integration and 250-m height resolution. Comparison of the lidar observations with water vapor profiles retrieved by the AIRS instrument on board the AQUA satellite agree within the error associated with each measurement. These new observations offer more routine measurements of water vapor in the Arctic to complement measurements related to the Arctic's hydrologic cycle.
*Corresponding author: Ryan Reynolds Neely, III, ATOC, UCB 311, University of Colorado Boulder, CO 80309-0311. e-mail: Ryan.Neely@colorado.edu

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH -D-10-05021.1
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I kindly disagree. When the models are so consistent on development prior to seven days, even if we do not see a tropical cyclone, we should at least see some heavy rains move into the southwest Gulf.


Well, models can be consistent for a while, then diverge, its still so very far out. It could happen of course though, something to watch for at least anyway.
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Well, lets get ready for the next flood event....

Man building full-scale Noah's ark
Yahoo headlines... Link



100,00 visitors for break-even.... Money???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
Keep in mind guys, we are talking about a potential tropical cyclone that doesn't even exist yet, lets not be so sure one will form, and that it will bring much needed rain to Texas, heck its so early, North Carlina has about the same risk as Texas, lol.

As much as it would be nice if it did, that's a massive if at this point.


I kindly disagree. When the models are so consistent on development prior to seven days, even if we do not see a tropical cyclone, we should at least see some heavy rains move into the southwest Gulf.
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Hush! It has already been analyzed as Alex or Arlene(?).
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Keep in mind guys, we are talking about a potential tropical cyclone that doesn't even exist yet, lets not be so sure one will form, and that it will bring much needed rain to Texas, heck its so early, North Carlina has about the same risk as Texas, lol.

As much as it would be nice if it did, that's a massive if at this point.
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Quoting Grothar:


Enjoy


Link

Mmmmmm ... there's always room for Jello.

Looks like a jello plot!
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The good news about this whole thing is, there looks to be a trough in the west by the time the system is supposed to make landfall in Mexico. This should allow for the mid-level circulation to get shot northeast, giving Texas some much-needed rainfall, as tropical moisture is drawn northward from the Gulf via the mid-level center. Not to mention that anytime a tropical system interacts with a front (provided their respective orientations are harmonious), heavy rainfall results downstream of the circulation center.

18z GFS:



Also, I would like to note that, despite the most likely landfall locale being northeast Mexico, south Texas still isn't out of the woods yet. I'd say there is at least a 20% chance they could see a landfall from this.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
at last look oh i found with a dress on its Presslord!



Face recognition computer report...

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June Climatology:

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Quoting KoritheMan:


I've been keeping an eye on them for sure. I see no reason why we will not see our first named storm, and possibly even first hurricane.


True. I doubt it will be able to reach Hurricane Alex's strength primarily due to Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential.

June 22, 2011:



June 22, 2010:



It has more heat potential right before the Yucatan than Alex did, but last year had more TCHP at this time in the Gulf of Mexico.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Like Levi mentioned, the setup is very similar to Hurricane Alex. I found that interesting, normally you have systems drawn northward by troughs in June into the US instead of being forced into Mexico for the 2nd year in a row.


Climatology does get defied on occasion.
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Quoting presslord:


What a hot girl!!!




LOL thats you LOL
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Quoting TomTaylor:
yea, too lazy to do an analysis of it all, but just look at the MDR and Caribbean has anomolously warmed some what as well


Enjoy


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Tazmanian:
at last look oh i found warhing a dress a prsslode



What a hot girl!!!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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