Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods overwhelm North Dakota levees; floods kill 175 in China

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:33 PM GMT on June 23, 2011

Flood waters from North Dakota's Souris River are pouring over the levees protecting Minot, North Dakota today, and flood heights are expected to rise to the highest levels in recorded history tonight. The Lake Darling flood control reservoir located about 15 miles upstream from Minot is full to overflowing, and record releases of water are occurring to prevent the lake's dam from over-topping. By this weekend, the Army Corps of Engineers will open the dam's flood gates to a maximum flow rate of 20,000 cubic feet per second, which is roughly double the flow rate that the levees in Minot can handle. Water began flowing over the levees yesterday, forcing the mandatory evacuation of 12,000 residents. By Sunday, water levels on the Souris River are expected to peak at four feet above the previous all-time flood height, set in 1881. Torrential rainfall in Canada on Sunday and Monday, combined with very heavy rainfall and snow melt over North Dakota over the past month, are responsible for the record flood. The Souris River Basin near the Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan received four to seven inches of rain Sunday into Monday. Flood heights along the Souris River near the Canadian border upstream from Minot are already two feet above the previous all-time highest mark, and that pulse of water is now arriving in Minot. The unprecedented flood is expected to keep much of Minot underwater for at least two weeks. Fortunately, no new heavy rains are expected over the next five days, though up to 1/2" of rain could fall over portions of the Souris River watershed.

Figure 1. Still frame from a Youtube video of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota flowing over the levees in that town. The video was shot on Wednesday June 22, 2011, from a North Dakota National Guard helicopter.

Figure 2. Observed (blue line) and forecast (green line) stage of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota. The river is currently at its 3rd highest level on record, and is expected to rise above the record flood stage of 1558' tonight. The record was set back in 1881. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.

Record rains in China kill 175, do $5 billion in damage
Torrential rains triggered severe flooding in eastern China this week, with the death toll for June floods now standing at 175, with 86 people missing. Ironically, the same region experienced severe drought at the beginning of June. The estimated $5 billion in damage from the floods would make 2011 the third most expensive year for floods in China in the past decade. This year is the second consecutive year floods have caused exceptional damage in China. Last year, Western China saw summer precipitation more than 200% above average, and torrential monsoon rains triggered catastrophic landslides that killed 2137 people and did $759 million in damage. Monsoon floods in China killed an additional 1911 people, affected 134 million, and did $18 billion in damage in 2010, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This was the 2nd most expensive flooding disaster in Chinese history, behind the $30 billion price tag of the 1998 floods that killed 3656 people. China had floods in 1915, 1931, and 1959 that killed 3 million, 3.7 million, and 2 million people, respectively, but no damage estimates are available for these floods. During the period 2000 - 2009, China averaged $3.7 billion in damage and 674 deaths per year due to floods and landslides, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. This does not include the toll from typhoons. Speaking of typhoons, Tropical Storm Meari, currently located a few hundred miles east of the Philippines' Luzon Island, is expected to track north-northwestwards towards China today and Friday. By Saturday, Meari is expected to be a Category 1 typhoon, and will spread heavy rains over eastern China, worsening the flooding situation there--though the heaviest rains will likely remain offshore.

Figure 3. Rainfall amounts in excess of 18 inches (450 mm) fell in Eastern China southeast of Shanghai in a 1-week period, June 13 -19, 2011. A China Daily report from June 18 described the rains in parts of Zhejiang Province as unprecedented. High waters broke 100-meter (300-foot) holes in levees, inundating nearby villages. Some homes were buried in 3 meters (10 feet) of water. This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 4. Visitors watch as water gushes out from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the Yellow River in Central China's Henan province, June 22, 2011. Image credit: Xinhua.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday or Wednesday. There will be a strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf next week, which would tend to keep any storm that might form far to the south, with impacts limited to Mexico and perhaps South Texas.

Jeff Masters

Sandbagging the Railroad (Nikongranny)

Massive sandbagging effort along railroad tracks through Pacific Junction, Iowa. Can't comprehend the amount of white plastic used in these efforts.

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551. Grothar 1:19 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac: Grother, we are thinking the same thing... Too bad it can't move back over you and give Texas a little rain. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19515

552. trHUrrIXC5MMX 1:19 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
GFS takes it a little further south now Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7880

553. blsealevel 1:20 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Link Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

554. RitaEvac 1:21 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
First off, you don't care what models are saying when a system doesn't exist yet, a low level center has to form first and where that starts is the key to where it goes Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8894

555. Grothar 1:23 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Facts from Wiki: Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane: 16 hours - 70 mph to 155 mph - Hurricane Wilma 2005 Maximum pressure drop in 12 hours: 90+mb - Wilma 2005 Maximum pressure drop in 24 hours: 98mb - Wilma 2005 - 1200 UTC October 18 to October 19 Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane: 12 hours - Lorenzo 2007 Fastest Intensification from a Depression to a Category Five Hurricane: 51 Hours - Felix 2007 Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19515

556. ShenValleyFlyFish 1:24 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: Imminent rainage in Florida today... woop woop. Probably just enough rain to make it humid, and just enough lightning to spark massive fires... but hey, we have to think on the bright side. Badgers badgers badgers badgers badgers badgers badgers... Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

557. RukusBoondocks 1:25 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
carribean is looking sexy!! Member Since: February 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294

558. Levi32 1:26 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Good morning. Blog update: Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 24th, with Video Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

559. Grothar 1:32 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Any system should be watched at this time of year. Miami was hit by a system that wasn't even a depression and dropped about 15 inches of rain which caused massive flooding in Dade and Broward Counties. The NWS put out advisories early in the day and most people were sent home. Still thousands of people were stranded in their vehicles (including old Grothar) Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19515

560. TampaSpin 1:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

561. KeysieLife 1:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Good morning. Blog update: Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 24th, with Video Thanks Levi! How are things in the great AK? Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 353

562. TampaSpin 1:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Could end up being a Pacific System possibly! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

563. Some1Has2BtheRookie 1:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting Grothar: Facts from Wiki: Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane: 16 hours - 70 mph to 155 mph - Hurricane Wilma 2005 Maximum pressure drop in 12 hours: 90+mb - Wilma 2005 Maximum pressure drop in 24 hours: 98mb - Wilma 2005 - 1200 UTC October 18 to October 19 Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane: 12 hours - Lorenzo 2007 Fastest Intensification from a Depression to a Category Five Hurricane: 51 Hours - Felix 2007 Let us hope that Wilma retains her records for a considerable time into the future. Good morning, Grothar and fellow blogites. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

564. RitaEvac 1:36 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
TampaSpin, if those models pan out, this event wont even be an event, wont even be worth watching, mind as well say...NEXT Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8894

565. Some1Has2BtheRookie 1:36 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting Grothar: Any system should be watched at this time of year. Miami was hit by a system that wasn't even a depression and dropped about 15 inches of rain which caused massive flooding in Dade and Broward Counties. The NWS put out advisories early in the day and most people were sent home. Still thousands of people were stranded in there vehicles (including old Grothar) That is so sad when a chariot drowns out. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

566. Patrap 1:37 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
why ya'll still in this old entry? Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111297

567. Some1Has2BtheRookie 1:38 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting Patrap: why ya'll still in this old entry? Pat, I never knew you had any issues with "old". Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

568. TampaSpin 1:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac: TampaSpin, if those models pan out, this event wont even be an event, wont even be worth watching, mind as well say...NEXT Yep it sure appears that way. As bad as Texas needs moisture, sure would have been nice to have had a small Depression move into central Texas to have covered the State! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

569. KeysieLife 1:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting Patrap: why ya'll still in this old entry? Ha! We are the left overs...New Blog... Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 353

570. belizeit 1:41 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Good Morning Levi did you feel the earth quake Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 789

571. jpsb 1:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting TampaSpin: Yep it sure appears that way. As bad as Texas needs moisture, sure would have been nice to have had a small Depression move into central Texas to have covered the State! I am not giving up hope yet, that blob in the GoM right off the Texas coast might either move inland into Texas or help pull the TW into Texas. Ok, not likely but one can always hope. Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578

572. portcharlotte 1:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
We are seeing the same pattern as last year...The ridge is in the right place at the right time forcing all the systems westward. Last year it was all Mexico and no systems could move north into the Gulf. Rain is needed from these systems. Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703

573. blsealevel 1:49 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Good morning. Blog update: Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 24th, with Video Thanks Levi32 nice job. Quoting TampaSpin: Could end up being a Pacific System possibly! Good point Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

574. JBirdFireMedic 1:58 PM GMT on June 24, 2011
NEW BLOG!!!! Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

576. davidzimm 2:19 AM GMT on June 28, 2011
My parents were living in Dakota Dunes, SD- a few blocks from the flooding Missouri. They were evacuated a few weeks ago. My mother reported that the Dam in Yankton, SD- just up river- now has 33% more water flowing through it than the Niagara Falls. I cannot confirm this information. David Member Since: June 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

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