Record flooding in North Dakota forces evacuation of 11,000

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on June 22, 2011

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A 1-in-100 to 1-in-200 year flood is in progress in North Dakota along the Souris River, where flood heights never seen in recorded history are putting unprecedented pressure on the river's levees. The Lake Darling flood control reservoir located about 15 miles upstream from Minot, North Dakota, the state's 4th largest city, is full to overflowing. Record releases of water are occurring to prevent the lake's dam from overtopping. A mandatory evacuation of 11,000 residents from Minot is underway, and must be completed before Thursday morning, when water levels on the Souris River are expected to rise several feet above the previous all-time flood height, set in 1881. Massive rainfall in Canada on Sunday and Monday, combined with very heavy rainfall and snow melt over North Dakota over the past month, are responsible for the record flood. The Souris River Basin near the Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan received four to seven inches of rain Sunday into Monday. Flood heights along the Souris River near the Canadian border upstream from Minot are already almost a foot above the previous all-time highest mark, and all that water will arrive in Minot beginning on Thursday, likely overwhelming the city's levees and flooding large portions of the city for two or more weeks.


Figure 1. Observed (blue line) and forecast (green line) stage of the Souris River in Minot, North Dakota. The river is currently at its 4th highest level on record, and is expected to rise above the record flood stage of 1558' Thursday night. The record was set back in 1881. Image credit: NOAA AHPS.


Figure 2. The Souris River (in pink) is part of the Red River drainage basin. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Heavy rains this week over the neighboring Missouri River watershed forced the Army Corps of Engineers today to increase the flow rate at the key Gavins Point Dam to a record 160,000 cubic feet per second. The dam was already releasing water at more than double the previous record flow rate, and the increased flow is expected to raise flood heights by 0.3 - 0.7 feet along the Missouri River from Omaha to Kansas City. There have already been two levee failures and two places where levees have been overtopped along the Missouri River this month, resulting in large-scale flooding of low-lying farmlands. "This continues to be a very dynamic situation and dangerous at the same time," said Brig. Gen. John McMahon, commander of the Northwestern Division of the Army Corps of Engineers.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, but several models, including the NOGAPS and GFS, are predicting that a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula about seven days from now. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Beatriz is gone, after being torn apart by Mexico's high mountains during landfall. Beatriz is responsible for at least three deaths in Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Touchdown near York, Nebraska (StormTrain)
Tornado touching down less than a 1/2 mile from our location west of York, NE. The storm did miss the farm in this photo, but a few farms were hit and a train was derailed as it moved to the northeast.
Touchdown near York, Nebraska
Bellevue, Nebraska flooding 6/20/11 1 (Greyelf)
Taken 6/20/11 at Haworth Park, which is right along the Missouri River. Note the gazebo on the left 1/3 of the shot that I've made reference to in prior shots (5/28/11 when flooding first started and later shot on 6/13/11). The gazebo now has water in it almost up to it's roof. Of note, when I drove by again this morning on 6/21/11, the water had raised again after last night's rain. I'm never getting back into that gazebo at this rate.
Bellevue, Nebraska flooding 6/20/11 1

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602. Patrap
8:52 PM GMT on June 22, 2011
Quoting presslord:
Id bet a sizable chunk of change that ain't stormtop


Indeed...


But we have "assumes" everywhere, some could even give Miss Cleo a run fer her phone bank


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134747
601. weatherh98
8:52 PM GMT on June 22, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


You sir, are not a kettle-stirrer. Stormtop is just a usual "guest" who loves to stir things up on here.

oh okay gotcha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6541
Quoting Aquaimage13:



Contrails huh?

Since when did Contrails linger and become cloud formations. Keep telling yourselves that, nothing to see folks. DO NOT believe your eyes. They are just CONtrails. No wx mod going on here. Let's all laugh it off and let George Noory handle it.
missing a sarcasm flag, or a couple screws?... Skyepony, that is a pretty cool image, and most certainly shows them well. thanks for sharing :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Id bet a sizable chunk of change that ain't stormtop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
use da google,,all da kids are nowadays..

LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134747
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
where is pre95l going to be!


texas coast probably
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6541
Quoting swlaaggie:


Who is Bob Breck?


That's an even better question! :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10300
593. DEKRE
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Every teen age boy coveted this poster in 1976.



Every teen age boy from 10 to 110
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


what so im atroll???? the name is the give away


You sir, are not a kettle-stirrer. Stormtop is just a usual "guest" who loves to stir things up on here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting swlaaggie:



he is right, a lot
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6541
the spin looks like it will be on windsat strong winds in the area
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6541
Quoting MississippiWx:


Anyway, who cares about Bob Breck?


Who is Bob Breck?
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
Quoting Patrap:


pre-95l??????
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6541
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134747
Quoting TampaSpin:


Really all one has to do is look at the date of the member. Often that is the real giveaway!!


what so im atroll???? the name is the give away
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6541
Quoting TomTaylor:
you'd think people would recognize a troll right away, especially with his name, its a dead give away.



That would require thought..

instead of knee jerk, Jerk reactions to the obvious,,

welcome to Main Blog-itis 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134747
577. You'd think so..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 25160
Quoting seasonbust2011:
well presslord he is very concerned the new people who never experienced a hurricane would listen to the rookies on this site for information and we would have a real catastrophe if we were dealing with a cat 5...he just said we should be limited to what we say on here and he has heard numerous times where people on this site has trashed the NHC because they didnt agree with there analysis...BOB BRECK for that reason alone said this site should be banned from giving out any information to people who live on the gulfcoast...


And he's right. With only 24 posts, we won't listen to you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
you'd think people would recognize a troll right away, especially with his name, its a dead give away.



Really all one has to do is look at the date of the member. Often that is the real giveaway!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20499
Everyone, just to remind you all, there is a function in the bottom left hand corner of each comment called "Ignore User". If you don't want to read someone's comments, then its as simple as clicking "Ignore User" and then you won't have to deal with them.
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History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.

Link
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Quoting TampaTom:


I still do...

:^)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting CybrTeddy:
AGAIN, I must reiterate myself lol..

seasonbust2011 is a TROLL. He is StormTop, Stormkat, whatever his alas is. He doesn't know a hurricane from a frying pan. Ignore him, FLAG him report him to the Admin or Dr. Masters and he'll magically disappear..
you'd think people would recognize a troll right away, especially with his name, its a dead give away.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


+100
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134747
Quoting Tazmanian:
and it will all so help if you dont : Quote them has many of us have them on Ignore


+100
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Aquaimage13:



Contrails huh?

Since when did Contrails linger and become cloud formations. Keep telling yourselves that, nothing to see folks. DO NOT believe your eyes. They are just CONtrails. No wx mod going on here. Let's all laugh it off and let George Noory handle it.


I'm sorry...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seasonbust2011:
bob breck is worried about everyone getting a hurricane...whether it be the texas or n carolina coasts...but his philosophy is if it has to go somewhere then he would rather see it go to texas n carolina or anywhere else then come here...i agree with that 100%...


Bobicus breckicus needs to realize that most of ushave lived through a powerful hurricane or seen the damage i have so idk what he thinks he is talkin about...we know the cost.... 83 billion dollars for katrina.... etc.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6541
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Every teen age boy coveted this poster in 1976.



I still do...
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
and it will all so help if you dont : Quote them has many of us have them on Ignore
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Quoting seasonbust2011:
546. seasonbust2011 4:27 PM EDT on June 22, 2011

Got it. You joined the blog June 16, 2011 and are now an expert on what was said on this blog as well as the hair guy's blog.

TROLL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol..I've been calm the whole time.
well I hope you read the rest of my post (its a little hard to tell from this post since you only responded to the first two words lol) and can understand where I am coming from.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting seasonbust2011:
well presslord he is very concerned the new people who never experienced a hurricane would listen to the rookies on this site for information and we would have a real catastrophe if we were dealing with a cat 5...he just said we should be limited to what we say on here and he has heard numerous times where people on this site has trashed the NHC because they didnt agree with there analysis...BOB BRECK for that reason alone said this site should be banned from giving out any information to people who live on the gulfcoast...


Actually this site is better info before development and as development is forming! Then the wacko's arrive and unless you know the reliable ones then it can be confusing!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20499
Quoting Aquaimage13:



Contrails huh?

Since when did Contrails linger and become cloud formations. Keep telling yourselves that, nothing to see folks. DO NOT believe your eyes. They are just CONtrails. No wx mod going on here. Let's all laugh it off and let George Noory handle it.


"When temperature and moisture conditions, along with stability and wind shear, are favorable for especially persistent contrails, they may linger for some time and in some cases spread out to form extensive cirrus cloud cover, as noted, for example, in a recent paper in Nature at www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimat e1078.html. There is also a nice collection of contrail-related journal articles at www-pm.larc.nasa.gov/sass/sass-ref.html."

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seasonbust2011:
bob breck is worried about everyone getting a hurricane...whether it be the texas or n carolina coasts...but his philosophy is if it has to go somewhere then he would rather see it go to texas n carolina or anywhere else then come here...i agree with that 100%...


Anyway, who cares about Bob Breck?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10300
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Smell of testosterone in here is as strong as a High School locker room before "The Big Game." Hate to imagine what it's going to be like if we get a real storm.


All he-double-l would break loose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
calm down, look I'm sorry this escalated into whatever you want to call it

I'm not saying your prediction of 30-40 knots is absurd, I'm saying that you claiming going by eye looking at sat loops is a better method than using CIMSS products (which I was pretty sure you were implying with the "I don't need a shear map" comment) is absurd.

Huge difference there. Your prediction was not far off at all. I just checked the shear map and was like, this dude is off. Then you tried to tell me I was off and that your method was indeed better, and I got pissy. Sorry


Lol..I've been calm the whole time.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10300
Quoting Tygor:
My rain gauge had a little over 1.25" this morning in San Antonio. Everyone is in such a good mood :)


We had 2.75 here in Metroplex, loving it!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seasonbust2011:
well presslord he is very concerned the new people who never experienced a hurricane would listen to the rookies on this site for information and we would have a real catastrophe if we were dealing with a cat 5...he just said we should be limited to what we say on here and he has heard numerous times where people on this site has trashed the NHC because they didnt agree with there analysis...BOB BRECK for that reason alone said this site should be banned from giving out any information to people who live on the gulfcoast...


To add on to this...

As much as I respect someone like Levi's opinion or Dr. Master's opinion, I will never take their word over the word of the National Hurricane Center when it comes to forecasting landfalls or intensity at landfall. It's nothing personal to either of them. It has to do with the fact that the NHC has way more resources and knowledge than either of them. Any reasonable person, or even unreasonable person, should know the difference.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10300
Quoting Skyepony:
Lotta contrails..



Contrails huh?

Since when did Contrails linger and become cloud formations. Keep telling yourselves that, nothing to see folks. DO NOT believe your eyes. They are just CONtrails. No wx mod going on here. Let's all laugh it off and let George Noory handle it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Explain to me how it is absurd? You, yourself, claimed that it showed 20-25kts on the map once you gave it a closer look. So, with me claiming that it was 30-40kts (which could mean it was 30 on the dot), how is that absurd? I could have possibly missed it by 5kts from using the naked eye and satellite method. Even if I missed it by 15kts, that's not really "absurd."
calm down, look I'm sorry this escalated into whatever you want to call it

I'm not saying your prediction of 30-40 knots is absurd, I'm saying that you claiming going by eye looking at sat loops is a better method than using CIMSS products (which I was pretty sure you were implying with the "I don't need a shear map" comment) is absurd.

Huge difference there. Your prediction was not far off at all. I just checked the shear map and was like, this dude is off. Then you tried to tell me I was off and that your method was indeed better, and I got pissy. Sorry
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Id go a tad further and say anyone quoting someone with such claims needs a screw tightened..

specially from a handle with "2011 Bust" in it and a whopping 24 comments..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134747
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Must be BB's Mom.
...or Him.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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