Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
()

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 374 - 324

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Quoting NRAamy:
Bring on THE CHART!!!!





whats not and say we did
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
I'M BLIND!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No circulation seen yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vincent4989:

THE CHART!!!!!! is already here!
Everybody here is so pressed over that chart.I won't even glance at it this season.I'll know when the season has reached it's peak when the most storms form in that particular week or period...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149
Quoting MrMixon:


Where did you go to look at the moisture content? Thanks!


You can go here.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Only 102 today at my house in Texas instead of 106, did have clouds this morning for first time in a month, sun did not come out until 11:30. Slight chance of a storm Tuesday night? Seeing clouds was a nice change. 22 days straight of over 100, Wednesday it may only hit 99 according to forecast? The temps have been running about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than have been forecasted. It will take something tropical to bring Texas the rain this state needs, maybe late June or early July? I will keep praying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Bring on THE CHART!!!!

THE CHART!!!!!! is already here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:

Hence... THE CHART.

Thanks KOTG.

Whew.
no problem dewey and if interested the chart can be always found at anytime during the season on my blog page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Based on analysis of moisture content in the atmosphere over that area, that is an environment that we call dry air down here, so my guess is, I'm sure rainfall amounts are pretty heavy from persistent thunderstorms, but chances are the radar is overestimating how heavy the rain is to some degree.


Likewise in an atmosphere with very deep tropical moisture, the radar often underestimates rainfall intensity.


Where did you go to look at the moisture content? Thanks!
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting FLdewey:
So far the season is a Particularly Boring Situation!

Cue the chart.

THE CHART!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
THE CHART!!!!!!
I see screw the chart and look with your eyyyessss!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
jun is not done yet and besides we are about to fire up the ultra-zonic atmospheric wave generation device soon


:)
Waves should startcoming more robust in July,and the ITCZ should be pulling upward.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149
Quoting washingtonian115:
Eh nothing going on in the atlantic right now.Should be quite until July.Who knows maybe nothing forms in July.
jun is not done yet and besides we are about to fire up the ultra-zonic atmospheric wave generation device soon


:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Eh nothing going on in the atlantic right now.Should be quite until July.Who knows maybe nothing forms in July.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey Gro, where is the globe at? Not been posted in a long time, you've been slacking.


Wanted to wait until Miami09 comes back on. Gives him something to do. Sunlinerpr has been posting it without our permission. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
02E/H/B/C1
MARK
16.51N/102.53W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, beel. Got to get the blog going on something.


Hey Gro, where is the globe at? Not been posted in a long time, you've been slacking.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32336
Quoting alfabob:

Remember Adrian? I don't see how mountains inland will mess with development. Maybe creating a more intense 700mb circulation from upwards motion, but it seems to be doing just fine right now. Very compact hurricane just like the last but it won't be annular; I can see a more rapid rotation in the red blob and it is throwing large amounts of convection around which usually indicates that intensity will be increasing soon. Also rapid motion of the convection like that can make it seem like dry-air issues just like the last.


But this is different from Adrian. When Adrian had the dry air trouble, its eyewall was very tight and strong. However, with Beatriz, the storm hasn't even finished building it yet, making it more susceptible to dry air than what Hurricane Adrian was. That's another difference, Adrian was a major hurricane at the time, when Beatriz is only a 70 mph tropical storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32336
Quoting beell:


Don't even start that carp, Gro!


Hey, beel. Got to get the blog going on something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Atlantic basin should be prime for development by the first week of July...Already improving in the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean at this time.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32336
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
has anyone seen the strongest Tropical wave of the season in the central atlantic?
no threat to develop. (For now, Possibly)
Has decent surface vorticity and a anticyclone over it, i can confidently say that its the strongest tropical wave of the year so far... looking good...
I say it possibly has a chance to develop becuase of the models hinting at possible development in the western caribbean(southern gulf in some models) right when this tropical wave comes into that area, so at minimal if the models are correct then the tropical wave would aid that development.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32336
516

URPN12 KNHC 202029

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022011

A. 20/20:01:10Z

B. 16 deg 51 min N

102 deg 59 min W

C. 850 mb 1337 m

D. 62 kt

E. 255 deg 24 nm

F. 359 deg 63 kt

G. 257 deg 8 nm

H. 989 mb

I. 17 C / 1527 m

J. 22 C / 1522 m

K. 14 C / NA

L. OPEN N

M. C16

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 4 nm

P. AF302 0102E BEATRIZ OB 16

MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 18:03:20Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 20:06:00Z

MAX FL TEMP 24 C 053 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR

FIXED ALONG SW EDGE OF THIN INNER EYE ON RADAR

SECONDARY BROKEN BAND CIRCULAR 28 NM OPEN NE

;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alfabob:

Its going to be over warm water until Wednesday and is already at 70mph (with estimated winds of 75-80mph from recon), structure is also starting to look better. I would say 100mph on the low end, maybe 120mph peak.


The system is very close to land at the present time, which will hinder development of its Northeast side, ultimately messing with the development of the whole system all together. Plus, dry air lies just to the northwest and it will not build up like Adrian did to fight the dry air as much as Adrian did. I could possibly see 100 mph, but 120 mph is just absurd. Water Vapor imagery shows that mid-level dry air could already be messing with the system.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32336
Quoting MrMixon:
An impressive swath of southwestern Nebraska is showing more than 6" of rain so far (and storms are still boiling up in this area).





Based on analysis of moisture content in the atmosphere over that area, that is an environment that we call dry air down here, so my guess is, I'm sure rainfall amounts are pretty heavy from persistent thunderstorms, but chances are the radar is overestimating how heavy the rain is to some degree.


Likewise in an atmosphere with very deep tropical moisture, the radar often underestimates rainfall intensity.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7680
RE: post 290
.
Is that a shot of Hurricane Igor pumping the ridge?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weaverwxman:
Thank you was trying to decipher.I have never seen that before.


Here's another, today:

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 523
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder why they did it


Because the threat for Wind/Hail is very high, but the tornado threat is low/very low.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32336
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder why they did it


Because severe thunderstorms can be particularly dangerous! Don't need a 'nader to take down trees, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you was trying to decipher.I have never seen that before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weaverwxman:
excuse my ignorance but what is a PDS


Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32336
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It has to have been a very long time because I didn't even know they issued those. Wow, cool.



i wounder why they did it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
excuse my ignorance but what is a PDS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
has anyone seen the strongest Tropical wave of the season in the central atlantic?
no threat to develop. (For now, Possibly)
Has decent surface vorticity and a anticyclone over it, i can confidently say that its the strongest tropical wave of the year so far... looking good...
I say it possibly has a chance to develop becuase of the models hinting at possible development in the western caribbean(southern gulf in some models) right when this tropical wave comes into that area, so at minimal if the models are correct then the tropical wave would aid that development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
An impressive swath of southwestern Nebraska is showing more than 6" of rain so far (and storms are still boiling up in this area).



Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting Tazmanian:
there is now a PDS severe t-storm watch out have not seen one of them in a long time


It has to have been a very long time because I didn't even know they issued those. Wow, cool.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32336
Quoting MississippiWx:


Not sure if I've ever seen a PDS issued for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I'd be watching out for huge hail and wind gusts approaching 95-100mph with some of these storms.




we get them from time too time but they are vary rare
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252

Viewing: 374 - 324

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
58 °F
Overcast