Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
()

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Quoting beell:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST NEB...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OUTLOOK AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY SLOT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.



Now, if I could only find the dry slot.




is that a eye lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe July will be active?


Come on now, W115....June is not over yet...lol..How ya been?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where is DontAnnoyMe?.Havn't seen him in a minute.And havn't seen category5 either.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
Quoting scott39:
Its only June 20th! No one can go off of just 2 TCs in the E-Pac, to predict a slow or active Atlantic Hurricane Season.


It happens EVERY year, no matter how many times they are wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe July will be active?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
its start to get busy here


Wave train!!!! im excited alreadynow we need to see what the bobicus breckicus thinks
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Its only June 20th! No one can go off of just 2 TCs in the E-Pac, to predict a slow or active Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
416. beell
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST NEB...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OUTLOOK AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY SLOT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.



Now, if I could only find the dry slot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2008 featured no storms developing in June, while Arthur developed in May. 2004 also had no storms in June.

2006 had a storm in June and it was an average year.


1968 had 3 storms in June and only ended up with like 8

The atmosphere is way to complicated to make some blanket rule about the comparison of storms between the 2 basins and have it apply to every year or even most years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StAugustineFL:


You can go here.

Link


Thanks!
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but again last year had 4 named storms in June in the EPAC

the Atlantic did not start slow; I think some need to quit thinking that a slow start is no storms in June; when that is completely normal, even for above average seasons.


Listen to the Bobicus Breckicus, he is right about this stuff. if he says theres a coorilation theres a coorilation.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but again last year had 4 named storms in June in the EPAC

the Atlantic did not start slow; I think some need to quit thinking that a slow start is no storms in June; when that is completely normal, even for above average seasons.


2008 featured no storms developing in June, while Arthur developed in May. 2004 also had no storms in June.

2006 had a storm in June and it was an average year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I didn't say it works EVERY year but often enough for it to be more than coincidence. There is a connection and I suspect we will see a slower Atlantic season this year at the expense of an ACTIVE EPAC season.


but again last year had 4 named storms in June in the EPAC; its clear your leading argument is that since the EPAC is active so far; the Atlantic will have a slow start. There is no way to prove that theory.

the Atlantic did not start slow; I think some need to quit thinking that a slow start is no storms in June; when that is completely normal, even for above average seasons.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I didn't say it works EVERY year but often enough for it to be more than coincidence. There is a connection and I suspect we will see a slower Atlantic season this year at the expense of an ACTIVE EPAC season.


Like I added at the end - of course when there is an El Nino the activity in the EPAC is going to be more active, and vice versa with a La Nina but in neutral years both seasons tend to be active or atleast normal. This year is a neutral year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
Quoting MrMixon:


Where did you go to look at the moisture content? Thanks!


There's a lot of sites, the SPC has one, as well as some tropical forecasting sites.

What you want to do, is to look for Precipitable Water maps
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
Some bloggers who live in SELA may have watched Bob Breck confirm my theory today with his graphics. He stated as I have been saying for the past 2 weeks that there appears to be a connection between BUSY EPAC seasons and Quiet Atlantic seasons. 2006 and 2009 were 2 such years.. There were only 2 seasons where both basins were busy. It looks like this year may be one of these cyclical years, to the chagrin of some bloggers.


The totally rare bobicus breckicus,only found on tv in new orleans, at least he is right half the time hhmmhhmm another nola news channel isnt.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not really, again you forget that last year June featured A-D, including a Category 5 and a Category 3. 2008 featured an above average EPAC season too, and 2008 in the Atlantic was above average. 2004 in the EPAC was an El Nino too, only 12 which is 3 below the average of 15. 2003 had 16, 1 above the average of 15.. the Atlantic was active. 2002 also, average year even though an El Nino was strong and 2002 in the Atlantic was active. Point being, your theory is totally incorrect.
I didn't say it works EVERY year but often enough for it to be more than coincidence. There is a connection and I suspect we will see a slower Atlantic season this year at the expense of an ACTIVE EPAC season.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Hastings radar is having a busy day:

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not really, again you forget that last year June featured A-D, including a Category 5 and a Category 3. 2008 featured an above average EPAC season too, and 2008 in the Atlantic was above average. 2004 in the EPAC was an El Nino too, only 12 which is 3 below the average of 15. 2003 had 16, 1 above the average of 15.. the Atlantic was active. 2002 also, average year even though an El Nino was strong and 2002 in the Atlantic was active. Point being, your theory is totally incorrect other than the obvious - El Nino increases activity in the EPAC while suppressing it in the Atlantic and vice versa with a La Nina.


Exactly, he can throw that theory right out the window.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
401. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:00 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:



what is rader showing for winds and what town is in line for this powerfull nado


Not many towns are in the few, only a handful. Nebraska is fairly rural, which in this case, is a very good thing.

As for winds, radar estimates are in the EF-3/EF-4 range.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
400. CybrTeddy
10:58 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
Some bloggers who live in SELA may have watched Bob Breck confirm my theory today with his graphics. He stated as I have been saying for the past 2 weeks that there appears to be a connection between BUSY EPAC seasons and Quiet Atlantic seasons. 2006 and 2009 were 2 such years.. There were only 2 seasons where both basins were busy. It looks like this year may be one of these cyclical years, to the chagrin of some bloggers.


Not really, again you forget that last year June featured A-D, including a Category 5 and a Category 3. 2008 featured an above average EPAC season too, and 2008 in the Atlantic was above average. 2004 in the EPAC was an El Nino too, only 12 which is 3 below the average of 15. 2003 had 16, 1 above the average of 15.. the Atlantic was active. 2002 also, average year even though an El Nino was strong and 2002 in the Atlantic was active. Point being, your theory is totally incorrect other than the obvious - El Nino increases activity in the EPAC while suppressing it in the Atlantic and vice versa with a La Nina.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
399. washingtonian115
10:56 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper:
Some bloggers who live in SELA may have watched Bob Breck confirm my theory today with his graphics. He stated as I have been saying for the past 2 weeks that there appears to be a connection between BUSY EPAC seasons and Quiet Atlantic seasons. 2006 and 2009 were 2 such years.. There were only 2 seasons where both basins were busy. It looks like this year may be one of these cyclical years, to the chagrin of some bloggers.
I've been noticed that.It's been quite evident.Hello?2010.Active atlantic dead pacific.When the east pacific was active in the beginning of the year the atlantic was quite when the atlantic was active the pacific was dead.Only 2008 had a even amount of storms.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
398. Tazmanian
10:49 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Very strong tornado according to radar. Look at the debris ball! Additionally, there is a lot of peak in the storm that is not hail, but indeed debris that is being thrown at least 10,000 ft. into the air.



what is rader showing for winds and what town is in line for this powerfull nado
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
397. FrankZapper
10:49 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Some bloggers who live in SELA may have watched Bob Breck confirm my theory today with his graphics. He stated as I have been saying for the past 2 weeks that there appears to be a connection between BUSY EPAC seasons and Quiet Atlantic seasons. 2006 and 2009 were 2 such years.. There were only 2 seasons where both basins were busy. It looks like this year may be one of these cyclical years, to the chagrin of some bloggers.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
396. weatherh98
10:49 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Stop talking about THE CHART ba ba ba baaaaaa


i was gonna upload THE CHART but i didnt know howi belong in the 18th century
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
394. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:45 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
NEC081-185-202245-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110620T2245Z/
HAMILTON NE-YORK NE-
534 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN YORK AND EAST
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAMPTON...OR 17 MILES WEST OF YORK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YORK...HAMPTON AND BRADSHAW.

RESIDENT IN AND NEAR HAMPTON TAKE COVER NOW!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND
. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.


Very strong tornado according to radar. Look at the debris ball! Additionally, there is a lot of peak in the storm that is not hail, but indeed debris that is being thrown at least 10,000 ft. into the air.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
393. washingtonian115
10:45 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting midgulfmom:
Poppin' in for a sec..hahahah...THE CURTAIN! brings back memories...thanks for that!
Brings back unwanted things for me.I hate seeing that becuase the guy is old news.He must be the most famous blogger on the site.Some people on the other sites were even talking about him.Sad.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
392. midgulfmom
10:40 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
curtains boxes and charts what a season we got ahead
signs of things to come... LOL
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
391. Tazmanian
10:39 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
NEC081-185-202245-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110620T2245Z/
HAMILTON NE-YORK NE-
534 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN YORK AND EAST
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAMPTON...OR 17 MILES WEST OF YORK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YORK...HAMPTON AND BRADSHAW.

RESIDENT IN AND NEAR HAMPTON TAKE COVER NOW!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND
. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
390. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:36 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
curtains boxes and charts what a season we got ahead
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
389. Tazmanian
10:35 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989:

I can block that.



LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
388. midgulfmom
10:34 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Poppin' in for a sec..hahahah...THE CURTAIN! brings back memories...thanks for that!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
387. washingtonian115
10:34 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:

Bwaaaahahahahahaaaa.... ahhh there goes sweet tea all over the screen again

*choke

*gasp
Speaking of sweet tea I'm drinking some now.By swiss.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
386. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
This would support the idea of tropical cyclone landfalls in the July-September period.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
385. Vincent4989
10:32 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
the sun ?



here it is



I can block that.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
382. Tazmanian
10:29 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
the sun ?



here it is


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
380. washingtonian115
10:28 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting NRAamy:
I'M BLIND!!!!!!!
Here I'm sending you a stick right now in the mail.Would you like a see dog with that?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
379. Vincent4989
10:27 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting NRAamy:
I'M BLIND!!!!!!!

I told you, don't look at the sun!
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
378. NRAamy
10:27 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
OMG taz!!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
377. Tazmanian
10:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
would any one like too take a shower with me


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
376. washingtonian115
10:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Only 102 today at my house in Texas instead of 106, did have clouds this morning for first time in a month, sun did not come out until 11:30. Slight chance of a storm Tuesday night? Seeing clouds was a nice change. 22 days straight of over 100, Wednesday it may only hit 99 according to forecast? The temps have been running about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than have been forecasted. It will take something tropical to bring Texas the rain this state needs, maybe late June or early July? I will keep praying.
I had a bing wash out this morning.It rain steady or hard this morning.The sun is out now and it's in it's 70's.What better weather could you ask for.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17657
375. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:25 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
The chart is bringing some action to the blog... hmmm

Let's try an exercise.





You dare post the shower curtain?!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32715
374. Tazmanian
10:24 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
Quoting NRAamy:
Bring on THE CHART!!!!





whats not and say we did
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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