Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
()

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so as of the timeline my numbers from that are:
17 Storms
9 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting DestinJeff:
I just scrolled through and saw the discussion about activity ... or lack thereof for the Atlantic so far.

I also noticed a glaring omission from the arguments.

Allow me:

The Chart



Sanity is back! How dare you!
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Link
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAhJqNkNcC0

Above link is the media coverage surrounding Hurricane Andrew. Good work (shows brian norcross in the bunker). Interesting to note, it seems Hurricane Andrew was a simple storm to forecast. High pressure caught the storm and swung it due west for hundreds of miles to south florida. How would wunderground handle an approaching hurricane like Andrew? EPIC

So yeah, I'm watching this now. :)
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469. ackee
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Beatriz is not as well organized as it was a few hours ago, the core has become ragged due to interaction with land.
DO u think he centre will make land form ?
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Key:
Normal: Tropical Storm
Hurricane: Bold
Major Hurricane: Bold, Italics
July; Arlene, Bret
August; Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin
September; Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee
October; Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Phillipe
November; Rina
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Beatriz is not as well organized as it was a few hours ago, the core has become ragged due to interaction with land.
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Quoting ackee:
WHEN DO u guys think we see our first name storms ?


A JUNE
B JULY
C AUG
D SEP


B
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Quoting Tazmanian:



JFV?
THIS?.NOT THIS AGAIN.It doesn't matter just flag and ignore.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Some said the same about Nash with his majic marker and board. He was old fashioned, quaint and out of touch. But he was always Right. He didn't think a lot about these preseason forecasts either.


I liked Mr. Roberts best we had at the time not a lot of people had computers back then at least we didn't, we had to be old school about some of this stuff.
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we got 2.4 minutes of rain today!!! alllriiiight!!!! i guess anything is better than nothing.
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459. ackee
Quoting Tazmanian:




D
I think late july we see first name storms
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Yep, I know you watch the patterns closely....what you seeing?
Well the high is backing off that was over the southeast almost all June.And then you have the ITCZ moving up north.And also the shear is dropping around much of the basin.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125455
yup



no longer thinking it will be come a hurricane in fac it looks like its geting sheared a part
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
Quoting Patrap:
A weakened Storm this evening in the Eat Pac





Proximity to land is to blame for this
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453. MZT
North Carolina had been under a bad drought in 1985, with water restrictions in place in Greensboro. I remember Juan bringing much needed rain.
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A weakened Storm this evening in the East Pac





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125455
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 202333
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
500 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
Quoting weatherh98:


Ik he always is right about that and his weird theories aren't weird after he's right
Some said the same about Nash with his majic marker and board. He was old fashioned, quaint and out of touch. But he was always Right. He didn't think a lot about these preseason forecasts either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
WHEN DO u guys think we see our first name storms ?


A JUNE
B JULY
C AUG
D SEP




D
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
448. beell
Quoting MrMixon:


Excellent. I was sure there must be a gridded/contoured product out there somewhere.

So much information to assimilate... such a tiny brain to assimilate it...


No problem, MrMixon. But you didn't have to insult me...
; -)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15297
447. ackee
WHEN DO u guys think we see our first name storms ?


A JUNE
B JULY
C AUG
D SEP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Impact

Hurricane Juan caused US$1.5 billion ($3.06 billion 2011 USD), in damage most of it from crop damage. At the time, Juan was the 8th costliest hurricane in history, and is currently the 24th. It later caused extensive flooding across the Mid-Atlantic states as a partial remnant, causing an additional $1.3 billion and 50 deaths not included in its final effects.


Gulf of Mexico

Early in its lifetime, Juan caused 25 to 35 foot (7.5 to 10.5 meter) swells, damaging several offshore oil platforms and overturning two. High winds prior to the storm's development encumbered evacuation efforts. Because of this, 9 people died, either from toppled oil rigs or from drowning while being transported from the rigs. The oil industry suffered greatly from the hurricane, both due to the lack of production and from lost oil rigs.


Northern Gulf Coast


Because the hurricane looped twice near the coastline, Hurricane Juan brought extensive rainfall along the northern Gulf Coast, particularly across Louisiana and Texas. Deweyville, Texas received a maximum of 8.7 inches (220 mm) and Mobile, Alabama reached a total of 11.9 inches (302 mm), while Louisiana reported over to 10 inches (254 mm), with a storm maximum of 17.78 inches (452 mm) of rain in Galliano according to information compiled from the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. Storm surge was moderate, peaking at 8.2 feet (2.5 m) on the southern portion of Louisiana, though tides returned to below normal levels when offshore winds forced the surge out to sea. A few small tornadoes were reported along Juan's outer edges, though little damage was reported.

Severe coastal flooding resulted in significant crop damage and loss of livestock in southern Louisiana. Thousands of houses were flooded and destroyed, mainly around Lake Pontchartrain, though property damage was seen from Texas through the Florida Panhandle, albeit much less than Louisiana. 2 people drowned from the flood waters in Louisiana, and 1 person died in a boating accident of the Texas coast. There were 1,357 injuries reported by FEMA, though most were minor. Total damage from Hurricane Juan amounted to $1.5 billion (1985 USD), making it one of the costliest hurricanes at the time and making it the costliest non-retired hurricane name.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125455
Quoting Patrap:


Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985








I lost a house in that one due to flooding at the time.
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Quoting beell:


Another one:

SPC Mesoanalysis Pages

Pick your sector of interest.
"Precipitable Water" is under the "Heavy Rain" menu. Auto-updates at least hourly.

The latest:
click to open in new window



Excellent. I was sure there must be a gridded/contoured product out there somewhere.

So much information to assimilate... such a tiny brain to assimilate it...
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting FrankZapper:
Why are we referring to him as if he were a zoology speciment. But you are right, B. Breckicus is usually right when he comes up with these quirky theories. He has also been right, so far, when he states SELA is pretty much in the all clear from major hurricanes after Oct 1.


Ik he always is right about that and his weird theories aren't weird after he's right
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Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125455
I know it is a little early, but...



This is for the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hehe it's good to speak to someone of here.Now while all the tools are arguing over the atlantic being active this year or not I been studying the weather weather patterns.And some seem to be changing that might open the door for tropical activity.


Yep, I know you watch the patterns closely....what you seeing?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


based on how weather patterns are every signle year, my 8-year old nephew could figure out that TX and LA are pretty much in the clear after October 1st.

So to me, that is not such an amazing theory.
Yes that is a good point. People like BB and myself are just trying to let the people know that it IS NOT written that this year will be an active one. Many undiscovered factors and cycles are at play.
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Quoting sarahjola:

no theory can be proven. that is why it is called a theory. and bob breck is right way more than half the time. he is about as right as anyone else who tries to predict mother nature, something that can not be predicted. i think the theory is interesting. you are right as well. what happens in june has no impact on the rest of the season. we can have a storm in june and have no more for the rest of the season. we can also have a storm in june and have a very active season to follow. its all just a big guessing game. mother nature does whatever she wants when she wants. she will go against all normality and pull a complete shocker on you. she is my kind of mother, lol!
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I know..j/k....just wanted to speak to ya :)
Hehe it's good to speak to someone of here.Now while all the tools are arguing over the atlantic being active this year or not I been studying the weather weather patterns.And some seem to be changing that might open the door for tropical activity.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


but again last year had 4 named storms in June in the EPAC; its clear your leading argument is that since the EPAC is active so far; the Atlantic will have a slow start. There is no way to prove that theory.

the Atlantic did not start slow; I think some need to quit thinking that a slow start is no storms in June; when that is completely normal, even for above average seasons.

no theory can be proven. that is why it is called a theory. and bob breck is right way more than half the time. he is about as right as anyone else who tries to predict mother nature, something that can not be predicted. i think the theory is interesting. you are right as well. what happens in june has no impact on the rest of the season. we can have a storm in june and have no more for the rest of the season. we can also have a storm in june and have a very active season to follow. its all just a big guessing game. mother nature does whatever she wants when she wants. she will go against all normality and pull a complete shocker on you. she is my kind of mother, lol!
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Quoting beell:


You mean I can turn it off?
(j/k)


haha.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting washingtonian115:
I've been good.I belive the chances of seeing a June storm are low.


I know..j/k....just wanted to speak to ya :)
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Why are we referring to him as if he were a zoology speciment. But you are right, B. Breckicus is usually right when he comes up with these quirky theories. He has also been right, so far, when he states SELA is pretty much in the all clear from major hurricanes after Oct 1.


based on how weather patterns are every signle year, my 8-year old nephew could figure out that TX and LA are pretty much in the clear after October 1st.

So to me, that is not such an amazing theory.
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431. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your sarcasm flag is on right?


You mean I can turn it off?
(j/k)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15297
Quoting beell:


Gettin' there, Taz, lol. Long way from a pinhole though!



LOL LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
429. beell
Quoting Tazmanian:




is that a eye lol


Gettin' there, Taz, lol. Long way from a pinhole though!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15297
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Come on now, W115....June is not over yet...lol..How ya been?
I've been good.I belive the chances of seeing a June storm are low.
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Quoting beell:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST NEB...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OUTLOOK AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY SLOT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.



Now, if I could only find the dry slot.


Your sarcasm flag is on right?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
426. beell
Quoting MrMixon:


Thanks!


Another one:

SPC Mesoanalysis Pages

Pick your sector of interest.
"Precipitable Water" is under the "Heavy Rain" menu. Auto-updates at least hourly.

The latest:
click to open in new window

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15297
Quoting weatherh98:


Listen to the Bobicus Breckicus, he is right about this stuff. if he says theres a coorilation theres a coorilation.
Why are we referring to him as if he were a zoology speciment. But you are right, B. Breckicus is usually right when he comes up with these quirky theories. He has also been right, so far, when he states SELA is pretty much in the all clear from major hurricanes after Oct 1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST NEB...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OUTLOOK AREAS. HOWEVER...AREAS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY SLOT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.



Now, if I could only find the dry slot.




is that a eye lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.