Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
()

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Sorry looked at that wrong just over cat 1 on that scale but then again it does look alittle stronger could just be the convection wrap also
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u guys need rain in texas not tornadoes geez, poor guys can't get break at all down there.
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
Quoting alfabob:

It was to the east of Yucatan but there are a lot of mid-level clouds mixed in with the low so it is difficult to tell. Could be a dissipating mid-level vorticity left over from t-storms, I just saw something spinning and winds were generally converging in that location. Beatriz on the other-hand looks at least like a cat 1 now, maybe getting near high-end cat 1.





Yep it is a High end Cat 1 atleast it is beening shown on this anyway

Link
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Quoting spayandneuter:
Why do the dates on the blog say June 21st? Did I hit a time warp and miss today for some reason??


You may not have set it to your time zone. Bet it says 02:30 UTC also for your post.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
here the low off the east coast!!


purely cold core, no development expected.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Why do the dates on the blog say June 21st? Did I hit a time warp and miss today for some reason??
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565. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory
for the following municipalities...

in Puerto Rico
Bayamon... Toa Alta... Vega Alta... Dorado... Manati... Vega Baja and
Toa Baja

* until 1215 am AST

* at 908 PM AST... Doppler radar estimated heavy rain in the advisory
area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move west along the
north central sections of Puerto Rico. These showers may produce
between 1 to 2 inches of rain before diminish or move away from the
warned area.


Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 1852 6638 1843 6611 1835 6615 1848 6650


EM
Just one day. Just one. Without rain. But no.


Well of course not. This rainy season start has been ridiculous.
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks


Well, cause it's June. Not much is gonna happen in June.
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563. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB...WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 526...

VALID 210202Z - 210300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 526 CONTINUES.

NWD-PROPAGATING PORTION OF 600 MILE LONG QLCS HAS BOWED ACROSS SERN
SD.
..WITH COMMA HEAD CENTERED OVER HUTCHINSON COUNTY. ALTHOUGH
CURRENT PROPAGATION WILL RESULT IN MOVEMENT INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH NRN EXTENT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
DEVELOP N OF WW 526...AND MAY NECESSITATE A WFO WW EXTENSION.

FARTHER S...TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL AXIS JUST E OF BOWING SEGMENT THAT RECENTLY PASSED ALONG AND
N OF THE OMAHA METRO AREA WITH MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LYING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT IN DES MOINES VWP
DATA...GREATEST RELATIVE DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD EVOLVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-80 TO US-20 CORRIDORS IN W-CNTRL IA.

..GRAMS.. 06/21/2011
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a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks
Member Since: February 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
Quoting alfabob:

I've been looking at that, but the outflow hasn't really reached it yet; although it would inhibit the formation of an anti-cyclone in the near future. Obviously anything in that area would need some time to develop though, just something to keep an eye on. CIMSS shows no vorticity what so ever, not a surprise.


Might be seeing this

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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i do not like the red next to the east coast there.

this has been happening for a few weeks, nothing to worry about
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Quoting PcolaDan:
This is UGLY!!!!



That line of storms looks very violent, probably micro burts to hurricane force, maybe 80 mph in isolated spots. At least 60 throughout the whole thing I would think.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
This is UGLY!!!!


Nasty!
I've been lurking all day. And man, the weather in the US is getting nastier every day.

Goodnight.
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The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory
for the following municipalities...

in Puerto Rico
Bayamon... Toa Alta... Vega Alta... Dorado... Manati... Vega Baja and
Toa Baja

* until 1215 am AST

* at 908 PM AST... Doppler radar estimated heavy rain in the advisory
area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move west along the
north central sections of Puerto Rico. These showers may produce
between 1 to 2 inches of rain before diminish or move away from the
warned area.


Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 1852 6638 1843 6611 1835 6615 1848 6650


EM
Just one day. Just one. Without rain. But no.
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This bow echo in SD looks very strong, likely has 70mph + winds.
Link

Eppley Airfield in Omaha reported wind gust of 69mph. Worst went to the north of Cantore.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
This is UGLY!!!!

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Quoting Jedkins01:


That storm warning is overkill, Jim Cantore was live and it was a much lamer storm, at least where he was, then our typical sea breeze storms in Florida. He was right in the Omaha area.

I'm not saying there aren't areas that aren't getting destructive winds, but it sounds like its more widespread and worse than it is.


Like I always say, cold front thunderstorms are usually more bark then bite unless they produce tornadoes. I have had many spring and winter frontal squall lines in Florida that have had dozens of warnings like that and they never live up to the typical summer storm that doesn't get any attention! lol


Like i said, I'm not saying this storm isn't producing some serious winds and could be dangerous if you're in a car or mobile home, or outside, but it sounds worse than it is.

Now you wanna talk a serious storm, that video of a microburst in Norman, OK that Neapolitan posted a few days ago, THAT was a dangerous thunderstorm!


Well the airport reported a gust of 68mph, that sounds pretty serious to me. Cantore missed the worst part of the bow echo, it went to the north side of the city.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting IceCoast:
Take a look at this warning for the storms heading into the Omaha metro area.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
758 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAC085-NEC025-053-055-131-153-155-177-210130-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-110621T0130Z/
HARRISON IA-CASS NE-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-OTOE NE-SARPY NE-SAUNDERS NE-
WASHINGTON NE-
758 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...
EASTERN SAUNDERS...SARPY...NORTH CENTRAL OTOE...DOUGLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...CASS AND SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 756 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
INGLEWOOD TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SPOTTERS ESTIMATED 75 MPH WINDS AT VENICE ALONG HIGHWAY 92.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW!


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...VALLEY...CEDAR CREEK...SPRINGFIELD...MURRAY...WATERLOO...
ELKHORN...MILLARD...ARLINGTON...PLATTSMOUTH...PAPI LLION...LA
VISTA...RALSTON...OFFUTT AFB...BELLEVUE...KENNARD...COUNCIL
BLUFFS...BLAIR...FORT CALHOUN AND CHALCO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS
DOORS. THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DAMAGE TREES AND CAUSE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 9629 4097 9646 4104 9646 4105 9653
4133 9676 4168 9616 4170 9610 4151 9597
4149 9602 4143 9593 4134 9596 4131 9587
4127 9590 4130 9592 4130 9593 4119 9593
4118 9584 4116 9588 4106 9588 4096 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 222DEG 34KT 4144 9651 4095 9607
WIND...HAIL 75MPH 1.00IN


That storm warning is overkill, Jim Cantore was live and it was a much lamer storm, at least where he was, then our typical sea breeze storms in Florida. He was right in the Omaha area.

I'm not saying there aren't areas that aren't getting destructive winds, but it sounds like its more widespread and worse than it is.


Like I always say, cold front thunderstorms are usually more bark then bite unless they produce tornadoes. I have had many spring and winter frontal squall lines in Florida that have had dozens of warnings like that and they never live up to the typical summer storm that don't get any attention! lol


Like i said, I'm not saying this storm isn't producing some serious winds and could be dangerous if you're in a car or mobile home, or outside, but it sounds worse than it is.

Now you wanna talk a serious storm, that video of a microburst in Norman, OK that Neapolitan posted a few days ago, THAT was a dangerous thunderstorm!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
547. fuzed
wow, what a line
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Quoting IFuSAYso:


80% of Marines ar5e REMF's


It's funny how you can be a Marine cook, aircraft mechanic and be a bad ass. Recon out front!
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Quoting Patrap:


80% of Marines ar5e REMF's
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Quoting FrankZapper:
It's sad to say, but the NHC seems to take the consensus of the Computers as their official track. If the Computers don't agree then they just throw up a track and call it "low confidence". Nash never did that. He told you where it was going. We miss you Nash.


At our local NBC affiliate we used to have an excellent meteorologist named "Too Tall" Tom Szymanski and although he used the models a lot, he used them to GUIDE his forecasts, not make the forecasts for him. Sadly they fired him because it was cheaper to hire a talking head who just regurgitated what the models said.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Posted on June 20, 2011 at 5:44 PM

Updated today at 8:01 PM

Scott Satchfield / Eyewitness News

NEW ORLEANS -- When it comes to the current oyster crop, workers at Deanie's Seafood Restaurant like what they're seeing.

"We've been getting some nice, fat oysters and they look good for right now," said general manager Darren Chifici.

But, like others in the seafood industry, Chifici has questions about future supplies.

"The long-term effects of what the oil spill did and also the hurricanes over the years -- destroying the beds,” he said. “So, it's really a long-term outlook of, how long this thing's gonna take to recover, and if they're gonna recover."

The most pressing concern for industry leaders now is just how much damage freshwater moving through the Morganza and Bonnet Carre spillways caused to some of the state's most productive beds.

Monday, the governor's Oyster Advisory Committee met amid positive circumstances, as crews closed the remaining Bonnet Carre floodgates.

"That's good news, but we've already lost a substantial amount of resource in the central part of the state and the far eastern part of the state," said committee member Mike Voisin.

Voisin said the BP oil spill cut the state's oyster production in half, while the recent freshwater infiltration, he estimated, knocked it back at least another 30 percent.

Voisin worries some oystermen may be put out of business.

"My opinion is that this latest flood has created the straw that's broken a few of the camels’ backs,” he said. “I think we're gonna lose some small farmers. It's the first time I've felt that. You know, we've been through Katrina, Rita,
Gustav, Ike, Deepwater Horizon, but this is just one more thing on top of all of that."

But work is underway to help.

Biologists are using new technologies to re-seed oyster beds, deploying more than 100 million larvae and half a
million immature oysters.

For Randy Pausina with the state Wildlife and Fisheries Department, it's a silver lining in a tough situation.

"There's no playbooks on the
shelves for a lot of these things that have been happening to us, so we've learned a lot,
and that's a good thing for us to be able to respond in the future," Pausina
said.

As for what you can expect when ordering oysters in the coming months,
Voisin believes restaurants will continue having access to plenty of Louisiana oysters,
although he expects prices to go up by this fall.


If it ain't in bucktown, it ain't the real deanies
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the way things are beginning to gel, it appears there will be an early start to cape verde season
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Quoting FrankZapper:
It's sad to say, but the NHC seems to take the consensus of the Computers as their official track. If the Computers don't agree then they just throw up a track and call it "low confidence". Nash never did that. He told you where it was going. We miss you Nash.



Most definitely
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the itcz is very active and has started to migrate north, this early part of the season
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<
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Beatriz (EP02) Making a move inland tonight..




Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available
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Quoting alfabob:


An eye will appear within the next few hours, and the National Hurricane Center will upgrade it to a weak Category 1 hurricane, but it does not have much more potential that an 80 mph system.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting Patrap:
They completed the Bonnet Carre Spillway closing this morning Skye.

Posted on June 20, 2011 at 5:44 PM

Updated today at 8:01 PM

Scott Satchfield / Eyewitness News

NEW ORLEANS -- When it comes to the current oyster crop, workers at Deanie's Seafood Restaurant like what they're seeing.

"We've been getting some nice, fat oysters and they look good for right now," said general manager Darren Chifici.

But, like others in the seafood industry, Chifici has questions about future supplies.

"The long-term effects of what the oil spill did and also the hurricanes over the years -- destroying the beds,” he said. “So, it's really a long-term outlook of, how long this thing's gonna take to recover, and if they're gonna recover."

The most pressing concern for industry leaders now is just how much damage freshwater moving through the Morganza and Bonnet Carre spillways caused to some of the state's most productive beds.

Monday, the governor's Oyster Advisory Committee met amid positive circumstances, as crews closed the remaining Bonnet Carre floodgates.

"That's good news, but we've already lost a substantial amount of resource in the central part of the state and the far eastern part of the state," said committee member Mike Voisin.

Voisin said the BP oil spill cut the state's oyster production in half, while the recent freshwater infiltration, he estimated, knocked it back at least another 30 percent.

Voisin worries some oystermen may be put out of business.

"My opinion is that this latest flood has created the straw that's broken a few of the camels’ backs,” he said. “I think we're gonna lose some small farmers. It's the first time I've felt that. You know, we've been through Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike, Deepwater Horizon, but this is just one more thing on top of all of that."

But work is underway to help.

Biologists are using new technologies to re-seed oyster beds, deploying more than 100 million larvae and half a million immature oysters.

For Randy Pausina with the state Wildlife and Fisheries Department, it's a silver lining in a tough situation.

"There's no playbooks on the shelves for a lot of these things that have been happening to us, so we've learned a lot, and that's a good thing for us to be able to respond in the future," Pausina said.

As for what you can expect when ordering oysters in the coming months, Voisin believes restaurants will continue having access to plenty of Louisiana oysters, although he expects prices to go up by this fall.
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Ouch...
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They completed the Bonnet Carre Spillway closing this morning Skye.

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Quoting presslord:
The Marines are coming!!! Hide your daughters...
Link

Cool. I like this line:

CNN is a notorious focal point for Pentagon psyops.
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Quoting Patrap:
Indeed,,the Officers one is swankier than the NCO Enlisted one..


hey always use a "O" sword to cut the cake every Nov 10



my back side is intimately familiar with his swagger stick...which has been banned as an instrument of torture...which, in my case, it was ;-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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