Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
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Quoting Tygor:


You should know better than to wish for rain in Texas, because it isn't coming here. All kidding aside half the state should see at least 1/4" this week.

Yea you are right. I should know better but I am getting desperate. ALL of my gardens are dying and I have just gave up on most of them. I it just too hot here!
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Quoting weatherganny:
Okay... I am confused ...I thought we were supposed to have some "action" in the SW gulf that was going to move North into Texas. I need rain bad...but dont want to wish toohard because I ONLY want rain.


Maybe tomorrow it will surely look better than this!
Looking pretty puny right now....

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621. Tygor
Quoting weatherganny:
Okay... I am confused ...I thought we were supposed to have some "action" in the SW gulf that was going to move North into Texas. I need rain bad...but dont want to wish toohard because I ONLY want rain.


You should know better than to wish for rain in Texas, because it isn't coming here. All kidding aside half the state should see at least 1/4" this week.
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Okay... I am confused ...I thought we were supposed to have some "action" in the SW gulf that was going to move North into Texas. I need rain bad...but dont want to wish toohard because I ONLY want rain.
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617. DDR
we are really waterlogged,won't take much for a big flood event here.
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615. DDR
The last 3 days have yielded more than 4 inches of rain @ my location in Trinidad,yet another 3-4 inches from the 0z gfs.
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Quoting JRRP:
wao!! another hurricane

Where???? Oh I see it

No I don't
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610. JRRP
wao!! another hurricane
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie, 99W is just trying to develop east of the Philippines.

Yep
Tropical Disturbance 99W (Pre-FALCON)








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605. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Aussie, 99W is just trying to develop east of the Philippines.
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603. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION BOB02-2011
5:30 AM IST June 21 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over East Madhya Pradesh & Adjoining East Uttar Pradesh And Chhattisgarh.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2011 over southeast Uttar Pradesh and adjoining east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand moved northwestwards and lays centered over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, or about 100 km southwest of Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh) and 120 km east of Riwa (Madhya Pradesh).

The system would move west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.
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Headed towards Reno/Boyd/Decatur
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Quoting alfabob:

I would say that the chances are very slim, mountains and whatnot would make it difficult for the convection to make it that far.

From that image i can see the outflow is already in the BOC/W GOM
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST June 21 2011
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Can't believe that's still around, it's one ugly TD.
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02E/H/B/C1
NEAR LANDFALL
MARK
18.51N/104.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54315
597. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST June 21 2011
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots
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02E has already made landfall or will do so very soon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54315
Quoting sunlinepr:


The storm has gone Rasta. (580) And Beatriz is in the psychedelic phase. (585)
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Whats the chances of Beatriz or her remnants making it to the BOC? Could the moisture from Beatriz give Tx a good soaking?
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Second volcanic ash cloud forces Qantas, Jetstar, Virgin and Tiger flight cancellations in Sydney, Melbourne and across Australia


A VOLCANIC ash cloud from Chile is causing even more disruption on its second lap of the world with Australian airlines cancelling hundreds of flights in and out of Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne.

Denser and larger, the cloud has wrapped around a low pressure system moving across the country’s south-east posing a real safety risk for airline operation.

Jetstar and Virgin Australia have extended flight cancellations after morning risk assessment meetings and advice from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Jetstar will not fly in or out of Sydney and Newcastle from 3pm today and Virgin Australia has cancelled all Sydney and Melbourne services from 4pm.
Qantas has also suspended all of its Canberra flights from midday and Sydney from 3pm, in addition to all Adelaide services.

Travellers through Brisbane are urged to stay in touch with their airlines, with anticipated cancellations this afternoon.

International services to and from Sydney are currently under review.

QF1 from Sydney to Bangkok and London, QF5 from Sydney to Singapore and Frankfurt and QF31 from Sydney to Singapore and London will all depart from Sydney at 2.15pm today as planned.

Johannesburg destined services will operate with a refuelling stop in Perth and Buenos Aires services destined for Sydney may be subject to a refuelling stop in Papeete.

Tiger Airways, whose aircraft are currently hangared in Melbourne and Adelaide, is not flying at all today and will make a decision about tomorrow’s services later this afternoon.

Spokeswoman Vanessa Regan said they had taken the difficult decision not to fly any services in Australia today because of the ash cloud.

“Our risk assessment team has just finished its morning meeting and we’ve decided to cancel all services today. We sincerely regret any inconvenience to passengers but safety must come first,” said Ms Regan.

The impact of the ash cloud is expected to be even greater than last week, when flights to and from Melbourne and Hobart were disrupted and to a lesser extent those to Adelaide and Perth.
Bus company Greyhound Australia is cashing in on the aviation chaos, tripling the number of services running out of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra.

Chief Operating Officer Tony Hopkins said extra services will run from all affected areas until the ash plume passes.

“We have had an extraordinary amount of calls from people needing to travel so we have put extra services on,” Mr Hopkins said.

“We are monitoring the situation every 15 minutes and are putting on extra services to meet the demand.”

Airservices Australia is monitoring the new ash cloud, which it says has the potential to impact air travel in southeast Australia over the next 48 hours.

The latest Airservices Australia updates here.

The Puyehue volcano in Chile began erupting on 4 June and ash is now passing over Australia for a second time.

The new cloud is denser and larger than the cloud that halted Australian flights last week, and is expected to linger longer than its predecessor.

It is spread in a large band below Australia and is tipped to move to the northeast and east over the next few days, according to Airservices.

A Qantas spokesman said the airline put on five early flights before 6.30am and was trying to contact passengers last night.

"The Qantas approach to flying is a high standard of safety and we put safety before schedule," he said.

The head of the Bureau of Meteorology's Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) in Darwin , Andrew Tupper, said he expected the ash would cause disruption.

"It will obviously prevent aircraft flying at the altitude of the cloud . . . how they cope with that is their decision," he said.

"It's not like we have got masses of ash coming over to blanket the continent at lower levels. It is just a high level cloud that happens to be at an inconvenient level for flying."

Last week the ash cloud forced Qantas and Jetstar to cancel flights from Adelaide but Virgin continued to fly.

Virgin Group executive of operations Sean Donohue said the decision followed the latest advice from the VAAC.

"The current forecast suggests the ash plume will be below 20,000 feet over Adelaide and Mildura tomorrow. With this in mind we are suspending these services tomorrow," Mr Donohue said.

Adelaide Airport manager John McArdle said he did not expect international flights to be cancelled and the airport was doing its best to deal with the airlines' decisions.

"There is always room for improvement, but we learned some lessons from last time," he said.

An estimated 40,000 travellers in Australia were affected by the delays last week.

YOUR FLIGHTS AT A GLANCE

Qantas

All flights to and from Adelaide and Port Lincoln have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Canberra will be cancelled from 12pm (AEST).

All domestic flights to and from Sydney will be cancelled from 3pm.

The status of Melbourne flights still to be confirmed.



Jet Star

All flights to and from Adelaide have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Sydney and Newcastle will be cancelled from 3pm.

A flight between Melbourne to Perth at 1.45pm and a flight from Perth to Melbourne at 1.20pm (AWST) have both been cancelled.



Virgin Australia

All flights to and from Adelaide and Mildura have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Sydney and Melbourne will be cancelled from 4pm.

Flights cancelled to and from NSW regional centres of Newcastle, Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour.

Tiger Airways

No flights



It's going to be a quiet night here in Sydney, No air traffic at all. Only flights out will be selected international flights. Sydney is one of the most busiest airports in the southern hemisphere. Melbourne is a close 2nd.
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks

yep thats it nuttin
nuttin at all
move along
nuttin to see here


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Quoting alfabob:
Where is the NHC pulling these #'s from? There is no way this is a borderline cat 1, watching it wrap that convection around on rainbow indicates at least a moderate to high cat 1. No way it only gained 5mph with that much structural improvement, it is physically impossible.


They recognized that the system is much better organized
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I'm calling it a night, later gators.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you all didn't know, Hurricane Beatriz is affecting the Mexican coastline at this time. :)

...BEATRIZ BECOMES A HURRICANE...CENTER VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.0�N 103.5�W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb


Yes it is, I know its pushing some water on the coast hope it don't get to bad for them even a cat 1 can cause damage depending on the Terran.
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iowa, nebraska, minnesota, south dakota that is some kinda front what a sin.I thought those types of convective systems only blossomed up from the day time heating boy was i wrong.If my neice ever saw a warning come up on the tv like that to grab pillows matreses etc she would be no good.She would probably pee her pants then you would have to physically pick her up and take her to the basement.I am stunned that wasn't there earlier today its just plain huge.
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The part where the guy sounds like he is gagging on somethng needs to have a mean looking eye wall showing not some weak tropical storm
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If you all didn't know, Hurricane Beatriz is affecting the Mexican coastline at this time. :)

...BEATRIZ BECOMES A HURRICANE...CENTER VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.0%uFFFDN 103.5%uFFFDW
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

Should peak either here at 75 mph, or maybe 80 mph, but no Category 2 definitely.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:


Im sorry but that music needs to put with a much stronger storm like wilma or ivan.........
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Quoting alfabob:

Wow that took off fast, 0z analysis also which was right before it expanded into it's current self; so if its based on imagery then it should be going higher on the next update.


Depends on how far inland it goes i just dont see it getting much stronger being that close to the land
Then again i was never very good at forcasting these things.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.