Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
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Quoting Grothar:


Some of us work, you know. We can't all be like hydrus, and post maps every two minutes. We have important things to do. :)
What ever happened with having repect for other peoples thoughts and interests?...whimper, cry, sniffle...
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723. Skyepony (Mod)
That monster mid-country is just beginning to to tap the tropical moisture. Click pic to loop.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36085
No fireworks this AM offshore in the Gulf, whommmmmmpp, whommmmppp
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
Quoting Grothar:


Some of us work, you know. We can't all be like hydrus, and post maps every two minutes. We have important things to do. :)




you are so noted on that we can not all ways be on here



+1 for that
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720. Skyepony (Mod)
Happy Solstice all.


Checking out some celebrations on You Tube, it was hard not to notice the tin foil hatters are freaked out about the New Madrid fault line.

Most times when it gets a good flood the weight alone tends to wake it up a bit.


CA is latest state to catch a big fire.

Hundreds of firefighters continue to battle a wildfire on Monday in Central California that has burned nearly eight square miles of grassland. The fire started at the McDonald-Anticline Oil Field in Kern County on Sunday morning and quickly spread to a remote area of eastern San Luis Obispo County. No one has been hurt, but an 1800s-era Kern County cattle branding camp was destroyed. The fire is 20 percent contained. There is no estimate for full containment. Some 600 firefighters from as far away as Sacramento and San Diego were on the fire lines, Kern County fire spokesman Leland Davis said. Four air tankers and five helicopters made sorties with retardant and water drops.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36085
Quoting BobinTampa:
wow, blog was busier at 3:00 a.m. than it is now.



Some of us work, you know. We can't all be like hydrus, and post maps every two minutes. We have important things to do. :)
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717. Jax82
Looking better for the south.

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NOGAPS..
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GFS...
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wow, blog was busier at 3:00 a.m. than it is now.

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CMC precip accum. 7 day..
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712. SLU
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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711. SLU
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Western Pacific is getting busier...
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Good Morning All.....Yup....The ITCZ has been very active for about a month now and spawned the two E-Pac storms including Beatrice. Only a matter of time until it rises North and starts sending waves squarely through the Caribbean going into July-August as the sheer in the MDR starts to drop....Gonna be an interesting Cape Verde season this year.
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705. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes,there is plenty of convection ESE of you with a wave and ITCZ stuff that will add to those 10.

yes indeed
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The waves show up well here...
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Quoting DDR:

wow,nice...
i'm at 10 inches,expecting 3-4 over the next 2-3 days.


Yes,there is plenty of convection ESE of you with a wave and ITCZ stuff that will add to those 10.
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most interesting feature today is the system offshore cape hatteras speaking of donuts
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
...CENTER OF BEATRIZ RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...
5:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 21
Location: 19.4°N 105.0°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
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699. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.

wow,nice...
i'm at 10 inches,expecting 3-4 over the next 2-3 days.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Wait, what?


Look at the structure, look at how the CDO has become elongated from what it was. Here's an IR to prove that. Heavy land interaction.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.
More than I have received in 13 months
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks!

Good evening, Ron. I hope you don't mind if I call you that?


Don't mind at all.....been buzy savin the world!! How is the hurricanader doin??
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Beatriz is defiantly not going annular.

Maintaining strength, maybe even weakening.

Wait, what?
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Beatriz is defiantly not going annular.

Maintaining strength, maybe even weakening.
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character just pulling your feathers speaking of annular there was a donut that made landfall in new jersey back in the 50 or 60s
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.
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Quoting alfabob:

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.

It's not becoming annular. The spiral rainbands should be gone.
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that trof up north does seem to have some uuuummmph
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Quoting alfabob:

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.


Beatriz is not even close to an annular storm
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so Beatriz is inland and still on the nnw course? whats anyone picking... dissapation over land or gonna go with official NHC forecast?
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Current day 1 outlook: Mushroom.
Current day 2 outlook: Triangular flag placed sideways.
Current day 3 outlook: Small, half eaten mushroom.
Lurk mode activating....
Lurk mode activated.
Lurk Cam booting....
Lurk cam booted.
Starting Lurk XP...
Lurk XP started.
Now lurking.
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Quoting alfabob:

I would say that the chances are very slim, mountains and whatnot would make it difficult for the convection to make it that far.



I don't know about that. Meet Hurricane Rosa 1994. I remember this flood. We were in the process of moving into our brand new house. It was a mess to say the least! Rita moved us out 11 years later. Sigh. ;)



United States

Rosa sent moisture into the United States, which, in combination with humidity drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico, caused heavy thunderstorms and flooding in parts of thirty eight Texas counties on October 15 to 19. The flooding was worst around the San Jacinto and Trinity River basins, and in coastal areas. Rainfall totals ranged from 8 in (200 mm) to more than 28 in (710 mm).[14] The rain levels caused 100-year floods at nineteen stations. Several records were broken, some of which had stood since 1940. In the case of the Lavaca River near Edna, it broke a record set in 1936.[15] The flooding destroyed 3069 homes, heavily damaged 6560, and damaged 6148 others. Railbeds and roads sustained damage, while broken gas and oil pipelines caused spills and environmental damage in the Lower San Jacinto River and Galveston Bay. Twenty-two people died due to effects from the storm. In total, the flooding in southeastern Texas caused 700 million (1995 USD) in damage.[14] On October 18, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declared the worst-affected areas a disaster area.[16] After the declaration, FEMA received 26,000 applications for disaster assistance and approved 54 million (1995 USD) in aid.[14]
[edit] Lack of retirement
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie, 99W is just trying to develop east of the Philippines.

I was already watching that LPA. looks interesting.
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210838
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A
SHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM
TAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF
90 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE
COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/10. BEATRIZ IS HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BEATRIZ. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
LEFT...WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED BY 48 HR.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS TURN OCCURS...THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO PASS
OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO
CORRIENTES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND
THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS
WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF LAND
INTERACTION AND A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL NOT CAUSE A RAPID
DISINTEGRATION...WITH THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DYING OUT OVER THE
COLDER WATER WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
THAT THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION IS SERIOUSLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...BEATRIZ WOULD WEAKEN FASTER
AND DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 19.5N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 20.4N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 20.7N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.9N 109.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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616 alfabob "Probably the worst case scenario for Mexico right now; its following the path NHC has up, which is not moving inland."

Probably the best case scenario for Mexico right now. Most of Mexico has been in a Texas-style drought.

"About 40 percent of Mexico's territory has been experiencing the worst drought in seven decades, President Felipe Calderon said. Mexico experienced its second worst drought in 60 years in 2009, while 2010 was the rainiest year on record...
There are areas in Mexico where it has not rained since September..."

As is, HurricaneBeatriz is reported to be dropping precipitation as far east as MexicoCity... as well as wetting the formerly dry air flowing into the Gulf of Campeche. Which is good news inregard to future tropical development leading toward rainfall for both Texas and easternMexico.

In the near term, the best case scenario would be for TropicalStormBeatriz to turn northnorthwestward to continue following the coastline up through the center of the Gulf of California (Sea of Cortez) all the way to Yuma*Arizona, then head east as it breaks up.
Not likely given the NHC's predicted path westward (or given the SSTs and atmospheric conditions), but one can always wishcast.

* 138feet(~42metres) above sea-level, inland 62miles(~100kilometres) north of the Sea of Cortez
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Tornado Warning
2011-06-21 03:47:00 EDT until
2011-06-21 04:30:00 EDT

247 am CDT Tue Jun 21 2011

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northern Coleman County in north central Texas...

* until 330 am CDT

* at 245 am CDT...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was 4 miles east of Glen Cove...or 10 miles west of
Coleman...moving southeast at 25 mph
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677. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FALCON
11:00 PM PhST June 21 2011
======================================

The Low Pressure Area east of Visayas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "FALCON"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Falcon located at 11.7°N 132.3°E or 670 km east of Borongan, Easter Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
TD "Falcon" and TD "Egay" are expected to bring occasional rains over the country becoming widespread over the western section of Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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676. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (T1104)
15:00 PM JST June 21 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Northern South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haima (996 hPa) located at 19.1N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.5N 113.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.0N 110.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.