Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
()

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649

URPN12 KNHC 201826

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022011

A. 20/18:07:20Z

B. 16 deg 37 min N

102 deg 53 min W

C. 850 mb 1342 m

D. 70 kt

E. 144 deg 14 nm

F. 245 deg 74 kt

G. 143 deg 13 nm

H. 991 mb

I. 17 C / 1518 m

J. 22 C / 1520 m

K. 11 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm

P. AF302 0102E BEATRIZ OB 09

MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 18:03:20Z

CURVED BAND S THRU NW

;
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WP992011 - INVEST

A classic forming Cyclone in the West Pac.

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Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.62N 102.92W
Splash Time: 18:09Z

991mb (Surface) 25° (from the NNE) 23 knots (26 mph)
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Time: 18:03:00Z
Coordinates: 16.4333N 102.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,441 meters (~ 4,728 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.0 mb (~ 29.41 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 247° at 69 knots (From the WSW at ~ 79.3 mph)
Air Temp: 15.2°C (~ 59.4°F)
Dew Pt: 9.9°C (~ 49.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 74 knots (~ 85.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 70 knots (~ 80.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 25 mm/hr (~ 0.98 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting Levi32:


Still morning for me lol. Can't stay as it's just break.

Beatriz's core doesn't yet look all that great, and there's stable air just to the northwest. Outflow has improved to the north due to a trough digging into the ridge, which will likely help her become a hurricane, but anything beyond Cat 1 seems pretty unlikely, much less a major. No need to scare the people on the Mexican coast.


I think there is a good chance that Beatriz will become a Category 2 hurricane sometime within the next 48 hours. If you look at CIMSS Wind Shear analysis, it shows low wind shear of 5-10 knots atop the systems circulation. There is dry air to the northwest of the tropical storm, but if it can build up its eyewall (Looks like 65-75% complete) before the dry air can interfere with it, it may be better off, like we saw with Adrian.

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Quoting alfabob:
Mexico is going to be in trouble with this, most likely going to be near cat 3 while also near landfall.
I think it will reach cat 2. But I don't think it will be a strong cat 2 and I doubt cat 3. For one it doesn't have much more than a day before reaching its peak due to cooler waters and its increasing proximity to land.

As of right now, the system still has organizing to do and its a fairly large system (at least compared to Adrian). Organization in the last day or so has been impressive, but not extraordinarily quick.

For these reasons I think it will peak at cat 2. If it can slow down and keep off of land then it may have a shot of high end cat 2 and maybe, just maybe low end cat 3.
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With this front in play stalled out and the moisture surge coming in from the Gulf, this has GOT to bring heavy downpours for some of us tomm into Wed.

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160. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 6:20 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
..it will get to cat 2 status by daybreak tommorow then slowly spin down from there

Nah!

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Quoting Levi32:


Still morning for me lol. Can't stay as it's just break.

Beatriz's core doesn't yet look all that great, and there's stable air just to the northwest. Outflow has improved to the north due to a trough digging into the ridge, which will likely help her become a hurricane, but anything beyond Cat 1 seems pretty unlikely, much less a major. No need to scare the people on the Mexican coast.
it will get to cat 2 status by daybreak tommorow then slowly spin down from there
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For whatever reason my forecast on Beatriz on my blog got cut out. :-/
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24183
Quoting alfabob:

What's the link for that? All I can find is the NHC page, trying to find the one with all of the data and google maps link.


I'm using it in Google Earth, so if you have it, just save the link, go to open, and click on wherever you saved it.

Link
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It won't matter to "Speedy Gonzalez"...he can evacuate quickly!
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Anyone read this from the NWS Houston Discussion this morning?

"WEEKEND LOOKING DRIER AS UPPER
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER N TX PER ECMWF BUT WHAT MAY BE THE FIRST
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN JUNE TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
"

I have only looked at the GFS and it showed nothing when I looked. EURO/CMC showing something else?


Neither of them show any development.
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000
URPN15 KNHC 201811
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 29 20110620
180100 1620N 10242W 8430 01470 9986 +168 +111 246058 061 058 004 00
180130 1621N 10243W 8422 01471 9979 +164 +108 249064 066 058 001 00
180200 1623N 10244W 8434 01451 9970 +167 +105 245063 066 062 007 00
180230 1624N 10244W 8432 01442 9965 +159 +102 249067 069 066 022 00
180300 1626N 10245W 8430 01441 9960 +152 +099 247069 074 070 025 00
180330 1628N 10245W 8426 01435 9950 +153 +096 248062 071 065 025 00
180400 1629N 10246W 8432 01424 9939 +158 +095 247035 045 057 020 03
180430 1631N 10246W 8422 01426 9922 +180 +093 236032 035 037 003 00
180500 1632N 10247W 8434 01415 9918 +190 +094 235029 031 032 003 03
180530 1633N 10248W 8427 01417 9912 +192 +098 226025 027 029 001 03
180600 1635N 10249W 8435 01407 9909 +194 +102 223018 022 025 000 00
180630 1636N 10251W 8430 01411 9907 +195 +106 203011 013 024 000 00
180700 1637N 10252W 8424 01418 9898 +213 +109 184008 010 024 001 03
180730 1638N 10254W 8430 01409 9895 +216 +113 112006 009 029 002 03
180800 1638N 10255W 8430 01412 9902 +205 +119 045013 018 038 002 00
180830 1639N 10257W 8425 01420 9911 +193 +124 015024 027 043 000 03
180900 1640N 10258W 8429 01418 9919 +182 +127 019032 033 049 001 03
180930 1641N 10259W 8426 01426 9924 +182 +128 027036 039 053 002 00
181000 1642N 10300W 8432 01423 9929 +184 +128 030047 049 057 003 00
181030 1643N 10301W 8432 01432 9936 +183 +128 031056 058 058 001 00
$$
;


Close to hurricane strength winds, 989.5 mb
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NWS New Orleans

Tomorrow things will really start to transition to a wetter pattern
and could transition rather quickly. Moisture will increase through
the night Monday and by Tuesday morning precipitable waters along the coast will be near 2"
and possibly greater. At the same time the middle level ridge will be
well east of the area with short wave flow in place. In the upper levels we
may be in rrq of a weak speed maximum in the subtropical jet and even if
we arent...we will still have divergence aloft. In the ll the surface
high will still be in place over the eastern Gulf while a developing surface
low over the Central Plains will move into the upper MO/MS valley
leading to moderate srly flow from the surface to 10k feet. This should
allow convection and more so the seabreeze to activate pretty
quickly in the morning with nocturnal activity over the Gulf likely
ongoing at sunrise. With srly flow throughout the ll and reaching
into the middle levels the seabreeze will likely push north rather
quickly and this is both beneficial and a detriment from a rain
standpoint. The biggest drawback will be convection will likely
push north of the coast rather quickly likely leading to rather low
quantitative precipitation forecast amounts along the coast. On the other hand with the seabreeze
likely penetrating well inland it should get at least some rain
across a majority of the County Warning Area with locations along and north of the
10/12 corridor seeing the greatest chance of a decent downpour
during the midday and afternoon hours. The seabreeze will likely push all
the way through the County Warning Area by middle/late afternoon likely leading to mostly
isolated convection late in the afternoon but it should help to keep things
cooler than we have seen for the past 3-4 weeks...that said lower
90s are still likely. From a strong/severe aspect...we will have
unstable conditions in place but we generally always do...that said
middle level hghts arent going to drop significantly and therefore the
lapse rates and Vermont arent rather impressive. However...initially
there may still be enough middle level dry air to allow for a few strong
to severe storms early before there area gets contaminated from
convection. After all that said the best news is that Tuesday is not the
greatest chance for rain...Wednesday will be.
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Nevermind...This is the highest so far today.

Time: 18:00:30Z
Coordinates: 16.3N 102.7W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,473 meters (~ 4,833 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.8 mb (~ 29.49 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 238° at 53 knots (From the WSW at ~ 60.9 mph)
Air Temp: 17.2°C (~ 63.0°F)
Dew Pt: 11.2°C (~ 52.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 54 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots* (~ 65.5 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Anyone read this from the NWS Houston Discussion this morning?

"WEEKEND LOOKING DRIER AS UPPER
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER N TX PER ECMWF BUT WHAT MAY BE THE FIRST
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN JUNE TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
"

I have only looked at the GFS and it showed nothing when I looked. EURO/CMC showing something else?
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Quoting NRAamy:
71. DisasterResponder 4:43 PM GMT on June 20, 2011
The Horseshoe Two fire in AZ had sustained winds of 40-45 mph and a wind gust of 81 mph yesterday. It ripped the door off of a water tanker. Firefighters spent most of yesterday in "safety zones" and everyone is doing fine.


thank you for the update.

Any time. My dad and several friends are there. I have been keeping a close watch on it. I figured a hurricane force wind gust might be nice to mention.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's always possible, especially if Beatriz undergoes rapid intensification. I doubt it, but it isn't impossible.

Good Evening Levi.


Still morning for me lol. Can't stay as it's just break.

Beatriz's core doesn't yet look all that great, and there's stable air just to the northwest. Outflow has improved to the north due to a trough digging into the ridge, which will likely help her become a hurricane, but anything beyond Cat 1 seems pretty unlikely, much less a major. No need to scare the people on the Mexican coast.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes.


I see says the blind man!
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Highest so far.

Time: 17:59:00Z
Coordinates: 16.2333N 102.6667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.4 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,479 meters (~ 4,852 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: Missing
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 245° at 45 knots (From the WSW at ~ 51.7 mph)
Air Temp: 19.3°C (~ 66.7°F)
Dew Pt: 11.0°C (~ 51.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots* (~ 63.2 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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T.C.F.W.
02E/H/B/C1
MARK
15.83N/103.86W
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Lengthy blog update, I'd suggest checking it out while its quiet! :)
So what does a quiet June mean for Hurricane season? TS Beatriz 6/20/11
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Yeah, I doubt it too. It won't go thru rapid intensification.
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Quoting blsealevel:


Ok were talking about the wave that is following paralel with it right?


Yes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Beatriz is helping to bring the Mosoon trough northward, which ultimately will lead to an increase in moisture in the Gulf of Mexico, yes, but not now. The tropical wave from the SW Caribbean is what would be causing any moisture in the GOMEX at the current time.


Ok were talking about the wave that is following paralel with it right?
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Quoting Levi32:


I very highly doubt that.


It's always possible, especially if Beatriz undergoes rapid intensification. I doubt it, but it isn't impossible.

Good Evening Levi.
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What's a "Mosoon trough?"
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Quoting alfabob:
Mexico is going to be in trouble with this, most likely going to be near cat 3 while also near landfall.


I very highly doubt that.
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201741
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTERS APPROACHING THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 103.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
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Glad you guys in TX are finally going to get some much needed rain. Been hoping for that and hoping for the rest of the drought-stricken South to get a bunch of rain in the next few weeks.

Too bad the tropics aren't looking to cooperate anytime soon. Our best relief would obviously be a tropical storm. The longer we wait for a tropical system, the worse that system could be when it made it to our shores. We need one to hit now while conditions aren't ripe for hurricanes. Keep your fingers crossed the next few weeks!
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Quoting blsealevel:
Link



Beatriz is helping to bring the Mosoon trough northward, which ultimately will lead to an increase in moisture in the Gulf of Mexico, yes, but not now. The tropical wave from the SW Caribbean is what would be causing any moisture in the GOMEX at the current time.
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Link

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Quoting blsealevel:
From the looks of this it seems to be disrupting the dry air in the GOMEX some, any chance that this could pull more mosture in that area? because it looks like thats what its doing, are am i looking at it wrong again?


Forgot to link

Link
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From the looks of this it seems to be disrupting the dry air in the GOMEX some, any chance that this could pull more mosture in that area? because it looks like thats what its doing, are am i looking at it wrong again?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like a Category 1 hurricane at the present time.


Yeah, just below CAT 1. Will be moving into colder waters though.
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Should be seeing Tropical Storm force winds in the recon data very soon...Approaching 60 miles away from the center.
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Quoting alfabob:
Mexico is going to be in trouble with this, most likely going to be near cat 3 while also near landfall.


Looks like a Category 1 hurricane at the present time.

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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
water getting very warm fast!!
Gulf Stream too!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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