Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Not sure if I've ever seen a PDS issued for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I'd be watching out for huge hail and wind gusts approaching 95-100mph with some of these storms.




we get them from time too time but they are vary rare
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241


Not sure if I've ever seen a PDS issued for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I'd be watching out for huge hail and wind gusts approaching 95-100mph with some of these storms.
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I think my first guess on Beatriz will actually come true...Called for a peak around 85/90 mph. Doesn't appear it will become much more than that, and it may peak somewhere below that...always a possibility.
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there is now a PDS severe t-storm watch out have not seen one of them in a long time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
hmmm noaa a 989 mb pressure reading with Beatriz, so anyone know when the next offical update for beatriz will be, i'm atlantic time here where i live
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319. j2008
Quoting skycycle:
with the warm water and possible quick round of intensification (especially if she brushes the coast before a landfall) Beatriz has a lot of (bad) potential if you ask me... looks like a significantly bigger wind field with this last update as well...

It sure does, but then again doesnt every storm have deadly potential?? I hope everyone down there has got a worse case senario plan casue even if its only cat 1 or cat 2 the flooding it causes could be catastrophic.
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and away it goes
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with the warm water and possible quick round of intensification (especially if she brushes the coast before a landfall) Beatriz has a lot of (bad) potential if you ask me... looks like a significantly bigger wind field with this last update as well...
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I think someone hooked it up and doesnt know it's going and anybody can see!
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Quoting beell:


Dyslexics untie!


LOL...So wrong. Sort of like the person who created the word "lisp"...A person with a lisp can't even say what problem they have without showing it. :-)
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Woo hoo! Go Florida!


More rain, less 95-100 degree heat.

About time!

In the meanwhile, a nice, strong thunderstorm is still going through Central PBC, with lots of heavy rain. It's been going for the past 90 minutes, and it doesn't look like it's going to stop.
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Michael Ratliff has a tornado on the ground on TVN
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I was looking at my local weather site, and was scrolling thru the video pics of nearby PWS and came across this!!

You gotta be freaking kidding me!



LOL. Looks nice and cozy in there. I bet the temp is about 72 degrees and calm winds. Wonder if she knows she is on camera?
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308. beell
Quoting MississippiWx:


Isn't that a type of fish? What is Grothar going to do with that? :-)


Dyslexics untie!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
I was looking at my local weather site, and was scrolling thru the video pics of nearby PWS and came across this!!

You gotta be freaking kidding me!

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Quoting beell:


Don't even start that carp, gro!


Isn't that a type of fish? What is Grothar going to do with that? :-)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
by the way firefox 5 is now out of testing


Link


Hopefully it fixed the horrible memory leaks of version 4. Chrome seems a bit better as does version 3.6.x
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Woo hoo! Go Florida!


Yes! It looks like a classic wet season drench pattern is setting up, exactly what Florida needs, and no hurricanes!
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303. beell
Quoting Grothar:


Pat, do you see what Beatriz it trying to do?

Link


Don't even start that carp, Gro!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
@291

NWS Jax has been optimistic about the pattern change starting Thursday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM AND THURSDAY TRANSITIONS TO A WETTER
PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING
THURS MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY (60-70%) POPS IN THE AFTN ACRS
THE ENTIRE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
MOVE INTO THE AREA. BESIDES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO WIPE AWAY SOME
OF THE SMOKE...TEMPS WILL DROP A LITTLE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. A MOIST SWLY FLOW ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY AS SEABREEZES MOVE INLAND.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO.
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Up and away in warm juicy sst's





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Tazmanian:




no no no all rain has too go too me FL get none of it unless you pay me for it LOL




this kinding


That's mean, Taz. However, I'm sure Florida would gladly pay you for it at this point. Lol.
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299. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST June 21 2011
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11N 135E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots
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Quoting Patrap:


Pat, do you see what Beatriz it trying to do?

Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Woo hoo! Go Florida!




no no no all rain has too go too me FL get none of it unless you pay me for it LOL




this kinding
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
296. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
3:00 AM JST June 21 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Northern South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 19.1N 116.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.8N 114.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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295. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
DEPRESSION BOB02-2011
17:30 PM IST June 20 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2011 over Jharkhand and adjoining area of Chhattisgarh moved northwestwards and lays centered over southeast Uttar Pradesh & adjoining Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand, about 100 km east-southeast of Sidhi (Madhya Pradesh) and 150 km south of Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh).

The system would move west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST COMING UP AS COMPLEX SERIES OF EVENTS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CLOUDY WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF RAINS.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EDGING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOMES INVOLVED WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVES EAST...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD FLORIDA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THIS
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BRING 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE TROUGH MAY LIFT
OUT ENOUGH BY SUNDAY TO BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT.

THE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THAT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE APPROACHING...WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE MID AND UPPER
90S OF LATE.


Woo hoo! Go Florida!
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by the way firefox 5 is now out of testing


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Huh, there is no warning on the northern storm, i wonder why there is still some decent rotation on it.
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LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST COMING UP AS COMPLEX SERIES OF EVENTS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CLOUDY WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF RAINS.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EDGING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOMES INVOLVED WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVES EAST...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD FLORIDA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THIS
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BRING 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE TROUGH MAY LIFT
OUT ENOUGH BY SUNDAY TO BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT.

THE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THAT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE APPROACHING...WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE MID AND UPPER
90S OF LATE.
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View from aircraft 6-19-11 showing 20,000 ft Pyro-Cloud above the Grimes County, TX fire and downstream dense smoke plume.

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Quoting Tazmanian:




you this now noted it lol

Yah lol i did not know how that managed to slip pass me
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There is a live feed to the storm just south of the super cell that was producing tornado's, just got nader warned and has a fast rotating wall cloud.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
huh, some how i did not notice that this watch was a PDS, the on in Neb.




you this now noted it lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
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huh, some how i did not notice that this watch was a PDS, the on in Neb.
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a whole bunch of spin seen on the Hastings Nexrad station loop.. can see the noise channeling in towards that powerful supercell, also rotating with tornado reported on ground.

edit: the supercell totally fell apart after i posted this, but one north absorbed the energy and spin it seems...
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280. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There have been eight reported tornadoes today, seven in Kansas, one in North Dakota.


How many are from the same tornado?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
Pressure dropped below 985mb as that cell passed over Norton, KS...

They also lost all of their day's heating in less than 2 hours.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam good just taking a break before i finish todays shift


You mean the "blog shift" or your real work? Be specific there Keep. If I can ever help between shifts, let me know.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the storms so far today have been in the Slight risk area. Conditions are a lot more favorable for the development of tornadoes in the Moderate risk area. Indications are that storms should begin to fire in the MDT risk area within the next 1-3 hours, just in time for peak daytime heating.



Low pressure system supporting these thunderstorms is abnormally strong for this time of the year...992 mb.


Yeah, this system is just getting started... storms don't normally bother my dog, but he was a total stress case last night and demanded to sleep at the foot of the bed (he usually stays in the living room where he can guard the front door and stretch out...).
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An 87-year old record was broken today here in Southeastern North Carolina, in Wilmington North Carolina, where the temperature hit 101 °F.

It hit 105 °F here today...Heat that is usually unheard of here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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