Missouri River flood hits unprecedented flow rates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on June 17, 2011

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The most expensive tornado/severe weather disaster in American history is the great May 21 - 26, 2011 storm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado. According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, insured damages from that storm will amount to $4 - $7 billion, the greatest damages ever for a spring severe weather outbreak. However, the damages from the huge, slow-moving low pressure system that spawned the Joplin tornado have not yet been fully realized. The powerful storm pumped huge quantities of warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwestwards into Montana, where the moisture condensed into record-breaking heavy rain and snow. In portions of eastern Montana, the storm brought a year's worth of precipitation in a week, swelling the tributaries of the Missouri River to unprecedented heights. Billings, Montana recorded 9.54" of precipitation in May, its single wettest month on record, and not far from its annual average precipitation of 14.5". A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 30' today (June 17), two feet above the record crest set in 1912. Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the North Platte River in Nebraska, are also flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and 2 - 5" of rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating an even more dangerous flood.

Flooding along the Missouri River has already broken two levees and closed two portions of I-29, a key trucking route that extends from Kansas City through Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota to the Canadian border. A 20-mile stretch between Council Bluffs and the Missouri Valley area is closed, as well as a 22-mile section in southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri, causing significant disruptions to the trucking industry.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the spiraling low pressure system that caused the Joplin tornado drew large quantities of Gulf of Mexico air into Montana, creating record-breaking rains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.



Figure 2. Levee breach along the Missouri River levee L-575 near Hamburg, Iowa, on June 14, 2011. The town of Hamburg is being protected by a new temporary levee. So far, only farmland has flooded. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Army Corps cranks up water releases on Missouri River dams to double the previous record
Six flood control dams lie on the Missouri River between eastern Montana and Sioux City, Iowa; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. As water from this spring's record precipitation have flowed into the Missouri River basin, the reservoirs behind these dams have risen to record levels. On May 31, the Army Corps of Engineers was forced to open the the spillway gates on the massive Garrison Dam, 50 miles northwest of Bismark, North Dakota. It was the first time since the dam was built in 1955 that the spillway gates were opened. (Remarkably, during 2007 and early 2008, Lake Sakakawea water levels behind Garrison Dam were the lowest since the dam was built--46 feet below the current level--thanks to a decade-long drought.) On June 3, as the record flood progressed downstream, the spillway gates on the Big Bend Dam opened for the first time since that dam was completed in 1964. This week, the Army Corps of Engineers increased water flowing through all six dams to more than double the previous highs set during the floods of 1975 and 1997. The flow rates are now a massive 150,000 cubic feet per second, 1.5 times greater than the typical flow of Niagara Falls. These extreme flow rates will need to be maintained into at least mid-August, and are expected to severely strain levees on the Missouri River as it flows through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. According to a press conference put on by NWS and the Army Corps last week, the Missouri River flood control system is based on an 1881 estimate of the maximum amount of water an extreme flood season could generate--40 million acre-feet of water during the spring and summer flood season. However, this year's flood is expected to pump 42 - 43 million acre feet of water into the system, stressing it beyond its designed limits. In May alone, the Missouri River basin just upstream from Sioux City, Iowa, received 10.2 million acre feet of water, more than 25% above the previous May record of 7.2 million acre feet set in 1995. Additional levee failures along the Missouri are likely this summer, particularly if widespread heavy summer rains occur.


Figure 3. The Oahe Reservoir Stilling Basin north of Pierre, S.D., on June 5, 2011. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers increased the water releases from the Oahe Dam into the stilling basin to a record 147,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water release on June 8. The previous record was 59,000 cfs in 1997. Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/ Carlos J. Lazo

Four-day period of critical fire conditions expected in the Southwest
Powerful southwest winds of 20 - 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph will continue through Saturday in Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, making progress containing the region's severe fires difficult. Even worse conditions are begin predicted for Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts forecasts that wind gusts up to 50 mph will occur. With hot conditions and humidity values below 10%, these are likely to be among the worst fire conditions the region has seen this year.

While the exceptional drought gripping Arizona is largely to blame for terrible fire conditions this year, unusually windy and dry weather has also been a significant factor. These windy and dry conditions have been caused, in part, by a stronger-than-average jet stream over the region. According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, the period April-May 2011 was the 11th windiest and had the 6th lowest average relative humidity value on record in Phoenix. Combined, it was the 3rd windiest-driest April-May on record.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post on The Worst Wild Fires in World History. Arizona's Wallow Fire, at 750 square miles, has a long way to go before matching the largest fire in U.S. history, the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871. That fire burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Tallahassee hits 105°, their hottest day on record
On Wednesday June 15 at 307 PM EDT, the Tallahassee Regional Airport in Florida recorded a high temperature of 105 degrees. This temperature breaks the previous all time high temperature record for Tallahassee of 104 degrees, set most recently on June 20th 1933. The period of record for Tallahassee dates back to 1892.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models. However, the GFS model predicts that moisture will begin increasing early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical disturbance could form next week in the Gulf, bringing much-needed rains to the coast of Texas. Droughts of the magnitude of the current Texas drought are hard to break, though, so I'd like to see more support from the models before believing in this forecast.

Have a great weekend everyone! I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

ABANDONED For Wetland Project in Flood (BEME)
Another old farmstead,within the wetlands 'project'..near Highway 2 [to Nebraska City,Nebraska]..Water's getting higher. [photo taken Wednesday afternoon]
ABANDONED For Wetland Project in Flood
Won't be Open Much Longer (Nikongranny)
Highway 2 east of Nebraska City will be closing very soon.
Won't be Open Much Longer
Trying to Keep Ahead (Nikongranny)
of the approaching water. Crews working frantically building this earth berm to keep the advancing Missouri River out of Hamburg.
Trying to Keep Ahead

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797. srada
11:12 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Severe thunderstorms in NC..I hope it holds together by the time it hits the coast as it is moving really fast..

Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
796. CosmicEvents
11:12 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
There's an odd liquid substance falling from the skies here in SEFL. It's been going on now for 4 minutes....it's slowing down now and ending. Wonder what that was?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5557
795. Hurricanes101
11:11 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
To me the area in the NW Caribbean does not look very impressive at this time

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7475
794. KoritheMan
11:11 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like 92E is getting some good inflow. By tomorrow, the conditions appear favorable for much more development of this system.




Should be a depression by tomorrow.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20337
793. weatherh98
11:11 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like 92E is getting some good inflow. By tomorrow, the conditions appear favorable for much more development of this system.




Hey grothar, what are the pressures in 92E????? I'm thinking that the wave is moving NNW.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
792. Grothar
11:09 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
So has anybody decided. Is this moving WNW NW or N?


Link



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
791. largeeyes
11:09 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting floodzonenc:
Question for anyone who wants to forecast... will the precip in central NC hold together long enough to reach Greenville NC? Like most of the SE, we are dry.

Our forecast has our chances at 20%... didn't think our atmosphere was especially stable enough to kill these storms...

Any takers? Thanks!


I guarantee it rains here. I lit some charcoal.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
790. charlottefl
11:08 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Finally a little rain:


Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
789. msphar
11:05 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Outflow boundaries in the Gulf!
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
788. Grothar
11:03 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Looks like 92E is getting some good inflow. By tomorrow, the conditions appear favorable for much more development of this system.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
787. Pensa2woodtx
11:00 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Well...haven't been on here for a while...just reading....miss lefty,storm w and StormKat..by the way StormKat said the trough is heading to N.O. LOL..be safe....been on here since 2004....
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
785. Barefootontherocks
10:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting HarryMc:


If you really want to blow someone's mind, think about the real way to convert (gets stranger than you'd think):

... Now, wasn't that fun?


Yes.

Quoting Levi32:


Well, I think it's wrong, because 8678 feet is nothing close to the 500mb level at 20C surface temperature...



Um. Okay.

Thanks, you two!
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18530
784. ElConando
10:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
The Southern half of Miami Dade has been getting a good amount of rain today which is good. Hopefully Northern half can get some rain soon!
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3711
783. Chicklit
10:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
633 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

FLC127-182300-/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z- 110618T2300Z/VOLUSIA-633 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 631 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MAYTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OAK HILL...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...TURTLE MOUND...EDGEWATER AND APOLLO BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 2908 8091 2906 8089 2900 8086 2894 8082
2894 8081 2883 8075 2884 8078 2887 8080
2885 8081 2886 8082 2882 8081 2875 8106
2880 8106 2882 8110 2910 8091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 243DEG 9KT 2881 8101

$$

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11267
782. Chicklit
10:42 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
2800 lightening strikes with the storm coming through ECFL that is colliding with the sea breeze.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
618 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT.

* AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY...OR NEAR LAKE JESSUP...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... OSTEEN. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO DETECTED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&& LAT...LON 2882 8128 2895 8115 2880 8106 2879 8097
2861 8097 2861 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 201DEG 4KT 2877 8118

$$


KELLY






------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11267
780. emcf30
10:39 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
779. weatherh98
10:38 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
98 F and dewpoints in the 70's, they mustve made air conditioning for SE LA.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
778. Neapolitan
10:35 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
From the Wallow Fire 90 minutes ago:

"The Wallow Fire has jumped containment lines along US180. The town of Luna, New Mexico is under evacuation orders as of 3:15p.m."

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13505
777. largeeyes
10:33 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
I can't complain TOO much..it did rain for 15 minutes yesterday. Still severe drought and I think all it did was shoot humidity through the roof. We have a Underwear-sticking-to-your-bottom warning.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
776. blsealevel
10:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Ok; wayyy over my head, thats why we watch those videos you make their levi, cause i had it at -900,29453.00 lol
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
775. largeeyes
10:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting RobDaHood:
NWS getting radar upgrades is all well and good, but I think they need to spend some $$$ building some redundancy into their network. Last night I couldn't get ANY http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/ site to update for about 2 hours. In the last hour I have noticed serious deficiencies as well. Like not seeing anything on Tampa or Melbourne sites about tornado warnings until 15 minutes after I saw it here. The best technology in the world is no good if it cannot be accessed.

I know...we have WU radar available, but only a small percentage of folks come here...The .gov sites NEED to work.


Looks like the Morehead City radar as been acting up this whole week. I noticed numerous times nothing available, and it looks like it's down again.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
774. PRZEDCASTER
10:31 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting largeeyes:


Woah, one right down the road. Kewl...now I can watch even better radar pictures of rain that misses my house!


OH THE FEELING ~!
773. largeeyes
10:27 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


I know! I can't wait.


Woah, one right down the road. Kewl...now I can watch even better radar pictures of rain that misses my house!
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
772. Levi32
10:25 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting HarryMc:


If you really want to blow someone's mind, think about the real way to convert (gets stranger than you'd think):

To be "correct" you need the temparature to compensate for air density. Then, convert the temperature to Celcius.

Add 273.15 to the C temp (converts to Kelvin).

Take the pressure you're after, 500 mb for example, and multiply by 100.

Divide that by 101,325 (don't ask, just do) then take the log of that result (log is -.306747 for 500mb).

Multiply the log by degrees Kelvin. Multiply that by the gas constant, 287.053 Joules per kilogram Kelvin.

Multiply that by -1 or just change the negative sign to a positive sign (you're working with a negative number before doing this).

Divide your answer by the acceleration of gravity in meters per second squared, which is 9.80

If you started with a temperature, being summer, of 20 degrees C, the result should be something like 2644 meters for 500 mb. That would be 8678 feet above sea level.

Now, wasn't that fun?






Well, I think it's wrong, because 8678 feet is nothing close to the 500mb level at 20C surface temperature.

I think your first problem was multiplying 500 hectopascals by 100, getting units of 10^6 pascals, when what you seemed to want was the pressure in standard atmospheres, since you divided by 101325 pascals, which is 1 atm.

Your units don't make sense either. You end up with a number in units of Joules second squared per meter kilogram. That's not a unit of height.

Furthermore, you would need to somehow integrate the compressibility of air up through the entire atmosphere (not just the troposphere), and then factor in the lapse rate of the atmosphere to properly calculate the height of a geopotential surface.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26585
771. blsealevel
10:21 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
This is a fun radar site for florida
could post so i just linked it.

Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
770. weatherh98
10:20 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:


Umm I'll just look at pictures


Agreed
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
769. Ylee
10:16 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Re. 763: There's no money in PhD's or MA's in mindless idle banter, you have to do it in the private sector, such as late night radio, or cable TV.
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15536
768. emcf30
10:15 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
KRDO Verie Carlson

Live Stream Tornado warned storm. had streaming video of tornado on ground.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
767. Chicklit
10:11 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on June 18, 2011
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 630 PM EDT for central Volusia County...

At 558 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to detect a tornado. This tornado was located near Lake Ashby and State Route 415... or 6 miles east of Lake Helen... moving east at 15 mph.

The tornado will otherwise remain over mainly rural areas of the indicated County.

Lat... Lon 2893 8116 2902 8116 2901 8100 2892 8098
time... Mot... loc 2159z 004deg 13kt 2900 8113


Guseman

Kaboom!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11267
765. Chicklit
10:09 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Just got really dark outside. The rain is starting to get here.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
556 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.

* AT 554 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...PONCE INLET...EDGEWATER...BETHUNE BEACH...OAK HILL AND APOLLO BEACH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO DETECTED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2894 8082 2894 8081 2893 8081 2878 8073
2879 8075 2887 8080 2885 8081 2886 8082
2885 8082 2879 8078 2878 8079 2879 8106
2894 8115 2911 8108 2912 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 297DEG 18KT 2896 8102

$$

GUSEMAN

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11267
764. blsealevel
10:09 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting HarryMc:


If you really want to blow someone's mind, think about the real way to convert (gets stranger than you'd think):

To be "correct" you need the temparature to compensate for air density. Then, convert the temperature to Celcius.

Add 273.15 to the C temp (converts to Kelvin).

Take the pressure you're after, 500 mb for example, and multiply by 100.

Divide that by 101,325 (don't ask, just do) then take the log of that result (log is -.306747 for 500mb).

Multiply the log by degrees Kelvin. Multiply that by the gas constant, 287.053 Joules per kilogram Kelvin.

Multiply that by -1 or just change the negative sign to a positive sign (you're working with a negative number before doing this).

Divide your answer by the acceleration of gravity in meters per second squared, which is 9.80

If you started with a temperature, being summer, of 20 degrees C, the result should be something like 2644 meters for 500 mb. That would be 8678 feet above sea level.

Now, wasn't that fun?






Umm I'll just look at pictures
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
763. PlazaRed
10:04 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Bet you write it up right and you can get a Sociology Phd. out of it.


Hurry Folks:-
Become a Doctor in mindless idle banter broadcasting, with a masters in trivia.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
762. RobDaHood
9:56 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
NWS getting radar upgrades is all well and good, but I think they need to spend some $$$ building some redundancy into their network. Last night I couldn't get ANY http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/ site to update for about 2 hours. In the last hour I have noticed serious deficiencies as well. Like not seeing anything on Tampa or Melbourne sites about tornado warnings until 15 minutes after I saw it here. The best technology in the world is no good if it cannot be accessed.

I know...we have WU radar available, but only a small percentage of folks come here...The .gov sites NEED to work.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31859
761. blsealevel
9:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting alfabob:

23:19UTC from yesterday, images can be up to 22 hours old.


Yea didnt look at the dates takes awhile for the sat to make its rounds.

Thanks alfabob and Levi
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
760. HarryMc
9:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

The same model run will show both 850 and 500. Levels is the difference. 850 closer to surface, 500 midlevel.

N by NW, just Mt. Rushmore. The Iowa cornfield scene was the best.
:)


If you really want to blow someone's mind, think about the real way to convert (gets stranger than you'd think):

To be "correct" you need the temparature to compensate for air density. Then, convert the temperature to Celcius.

Add 273.15 to the C temp (converts to Kelvin).

Take the pressure you're after, 500 mb for example, and multiply by 100.

Divide that by 101,325 (don't ask, just do) then take the log of that result (log is -.306747 for 500mb).

Multiply the log by degrees Kelvin. Multiply that by the gas constant, 287.053 Joules per kilogram Kelvin.

Multiply that by -1 or just change the negative sign to a positive sign (you're working with a negative number before doing this).

Divide your answer by the acceleration of gravity in meters per second squared, which is 9.80

If you started with a temperature, being summer, of 20 degrees C, the result should be something like 2644 meters for 500 mb. That would be 8678 feet above sea level.

Now, wasn't that fun?




Member Since: March 30, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 339
759. blsealevel
9:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2011

Currently, the TPW products are available from various sensors/satellites. However, these products carry different biases and sampling errors due to the difference in algorithms, instruments, and also temporal and spatial sampling resolutions. What would be helpful, especially to forecasters, is a unified, meteorologically significant TPW field, which merges all available TPW products, with a non-gap global coverage.

CIRA has developed such a product through blending AMSU, SSM/I and GPS TPW together. This product has being used by forecasters and satellite analysts for years, and approved its value on helping forecasters to analysis and forecast heavy rain and flooding, and also the transfer of moisture from ocean to land.




Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
758. PRZEDCASTER
9:48 PM GMT on June 18, 2011


50 PERCENT WEATHER CHANNEL 20 PERCENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND , 0 PERCENT PRZEDCASTER .

I don't think it's gonna rain SE Fl .
757. ShenValleyFlyFish
9:47 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting aspectre:
Only in that mindless idle banter can be published as if it were a real research paper.
Bet you write it up right and you can get a Sociology Phd. out of it.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
756. PcolaDan
9:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
They don't teach that anymore it's not on the No Kid Left Behind testing curriculum.


My wife now likes you. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
755. Hurricanes101
9:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:


looks my bowl of Fruity Pebbles this morning lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7475
754. ShenValleyFlyFish
9:42 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Doesn't sound like a looming gap to me. That's a delay of 18 months with a 24-month fuel buffer. It's not like the thing is going to fall apart on the last day of the 5th year. It would be nice to have a 2-year buffer rather than a 6-month buffer, but the US is in quite dire straights financially.
Plenty of money to throw missiles down Mid-East/North African spider holes.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
753. Levi32
9:42 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:


This is the more recent WindSat pass, though still old:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26585
751. fatlady99
9:41 PM GMT on June 18, 2011
testing...
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410
There's a new tropical wave SSW of the Cape Verde Islands:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26585
The big picture:

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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting Tazmanian:
what week dos lader day weekend fall on?



is it the 1st week of SEP or the last week of SEP?
Taz, it's easier to figure out if, like me and like Grothar, you are old enough to remember that school used not to start until AFTER Labor Day! And it ended BEFORE Memorial Day. Those were the days, my friend. This year, September 5.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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