U.S. had most extreme spring on record for precipitation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on June 14, 2011

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Nature's fury reached new extremes in the U.S. during the spring of 2011, as a punishing series of billion-dollar disasters brought the greatest flood in recorded history to the Lower Mississippi River, an astonishingly deadly tornado season, the worst drought in Texas history, and the worst fire season in recorded history. There's never been a spring this extreme for combined wet and dry extremes in the U.S. since record keeping began over a century ago, statistics released last week by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reveal. Their Climate Extremes Index (CEI) looks at the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top 10% or bottom 10% monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, monthly drought, and daily precipitation. During the spring period of March, April, and May 2011, 46% of the nation had abnormally (top 10%) wet or dry conditions--the greatest such area during the 102-year period of record. On average, just 21% of the country has exceptionally wet conditions or exceptionally dry conditions during spring. In addition, heavy 1-day precipitation events--the kind that cause the worst flooding--were also at an all-time high in the spring of 2011. However, temperatures during spring 2011 were not as extreme as in several previous springs over the past 102 years, so spring 2011 ranked as the 5th most extreme spring in the past 102 years when factoring in both temperature and precipitation.


Figure 1. Nine states in the U.S. saw their heaviest precipitation in the 117-year record during spring 2011, with record-breaking precipitation concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and along the Ohio River. Seven other states had top-ten wettest springs. Texas had its driest spring on record, and New Mexico and Louisiana had top-ten driest springs. When compared with Figure 2, we see that this is a classic winter La Niña pattern, but at extreme amplitude. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. La Niña events since 1950 have brought wetter than average conditions to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio River Valley in winter, and drier than average conditions to the South in both winter and spring. Spring 2011 (Figure 1) had a pattern very similar to the classic winter La Niña pattern (left image in Figure 2.) Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


Figure 3. The percent area of the Contiguous U.S. experiencing much above average heavy 1-day precipitation events in spring 2011 hit a record high, nearly 16%. The 102-year average is 9%. The previous record of 15.5% was set in 1964. Heavy springtime 1-day precipitation events in the U.S. have been increasing since 1960, in line with measured increases in water vapor over the U.S. due to a warming climate. See also Figure 4 below. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 4. Percent increase in the amount falling in heavy precipitation events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2007, for each region of the U.S. There are clear trends toward more very heavy precipitation events for the nation as a whole, and particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Climate models predict that precipitation will increasingly fall in very heavy events, similar to the trend that has been observed over the past 50 years in the U.S. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program. Figure updated from Groisman, P.Ya., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004: Contemporary changes of the hydro-logical cycle over the contiguous United States, trends derived from in situ observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5(1), 64-85.

What caused this spring's extremes?
During a La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, when the equatorial waters cool to several degrees below average, abnormally dry winter weather usually occurs in the southern U.S., and abnormally wet weather in the Midwest. This occurs because La Niña alters the path of the jet stream, making the predominant storm track in winter traverse the Midwest and avoid the South. Cold, Canadian air stays north of the jet stream, and warm subtropical air lies to the south of the jet, bringing drought to the southern tier of states. La Niña's influence on the jet stream and U.S. weather typically fades in springtime, with precipitation patterns returning closer to normal. However, in 2011, the La Niña influence on U.S. weather stayed strong throughout spring. The jet stream remained farther south than usual over the Pacific Northwest and Midwest, and blew more strongly, with wind speeds more typical of winter than spring. The positioning of the jet stream brought a much colder than average spring to the Pacific Northwest, with Washington and Oregon recording top-five coldest springs. Spring was not as cold in the Midwest, because a series of strong storms moved along the jet stream and pulled up warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air, which mixed with the cold air spilling south from Canada. The air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico was much warmer than usual, because weaker winds than average blew over the Gulf of Mexico during February and March. This reduced the amount of mixing of cold ocean waters from the depths, and allowed the surface waters to heat up. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico warmed to 1°C (1.8°F) above average during April--the third warmest temperatures in over a century of record keeping (SST anomalies were a bit cooler in May, about 0.4°C above average, due to stronger winds over the Gulf.) These unusually warm surface waters allowed much more moisture than usual to evaporate into the air, resulting in unprecedented rains over the Midwest when the warm, moist air swirled into the unusually cold air spilling southwards from Canada. With the jet stream at exceptional winter-like strengths, the stage was also set for massive tornado outbreaks.


Figure 5. A La Niña-like positioning of the jet stream, more typical of winter than spring, brought much colder air than normal to the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest during the spring of 2011. Washington and Oregon had top-five coldest springs, and near-record snowfalls and snow packs were recorded in portions of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. South of the mean position of the jet stream, top-ten warmest springs were recorded in Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Was climate change involved?
Whenever an unprecedented series of extreme weather events hit, it is natural to ask how climate change may be affecting the odds of these events, since our climate is undergoing unprecedented changes. This spring's unusual precipitation pattern--wet in the Northern U.S., and dry in the South--does fit what we'd expect from a natural but unusually long-lived winter La Niña pattern (Figure 2). However, it also fits the type of precipitation pattern climate models expect to occur over the U.S. by the end of the century due to human-caused warming of the climate (though shifted a few hundred miles to the south, Figure 6.) This drying of the Southern U.S. and increased precipitation in the Northern U.S. is expected to occur because of a fundamental shift in the large scale circulation of the atmosphere. The jet stream will retreat poleward, and rain-bearing storms that travel along the jet will have more moisture to precipitate out, since more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere. The desert regions will expand towards the poles, and the Southern U.S. will experience a climate more like the desert regions of Mexico have now, with sinking air that discourages precipitation. A hotter climate will dry out the soil more, making record intensity droughts like this year's in Texas more probable. So, is it possible that the record extremes of drought and wetness this spring in the U.S. were due to a combination of La Niña and climate change. It is difficult to disentangle the two effects without doing detailed modelling studies, which typically take years complete and publish. One weakness in the climate change influence argument is that climate models predict the jet stream should retreat northwards and weaken due to climate change. Indeed, globally the jet stream retreated 270 miles poleward and weakened during the period 1970 - 2001, in line with climate model expectations. Thus, a stronger and more southerly jet stream over the U.S. during the spring is something we should expect to see less and less of during coming decades.


Figure 6. The future: simulated change in precipitation during winter and spring for the years 2089 - 2099 as predicted by fifteen climate models, assuming we continue high emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide. Confidence is highest in the hatched areas. Compare with Figure 7, the observed change in precipitation over the past 50 years. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program.


Figure 7. U.S. annual average precipitation has increased by about 5% over the past 50 years, but there has been pronounced drying over the Southeast and Southwest U.S. Even in these dryer regions, though, heavy precipitation events have increased (see Figure 4.) Thus, rainfall tends to fall in a few very heavy events, and the light and moderate events decrease in number. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program. Data plotted from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushc n/.

Keep in mind, though, that climate models are best at describing the future global average conditions, and not at predicting how climate change might affect individual continents--or at predicting how rare extreme events might change. Major continent-scale changes in atmospheric circulation are likely to result over the coming few decades due to climate change, and I expect the jet stream will shift farther to the south in certain preferred regions during some combination of seasons and of the natural atmospheric patterns like La Niña, El Niño, and the Arctic Oscillation. For example, there has been research published linking recent record Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes in the Arctic Oscillation that encourage a southwards dip of the jet stream over Eastern North America and Western Europe during late fall and winter. Until we have many more years of data and more research results, we won't be able to say if climate change is likely to bring more springs with a circulation pattern like this year's.

One thing we can say is that since global ocean temperatures have warmed about 0.6°C (1°F) over the past 40 years, there is more moisture in the air to generate record flooding rains. The near-record warm Gulf of Mexico SSTs this April that led to record Ohio Valley rainfalls and the 100-year $5 billion+ flood on the Mississippi River would have been much harder to realize without global warming.

I'll have a new post by Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
Here is an interesting excerpt from CROWN WEATHER:

In the latest model forecast by the GFS model, it forecasts that a tropical cyclone may pop up out of a monsoonal weather pattern across the western Caribbean around June 24th or June 25th and track into the northern Gulf Coast by about June 27th. Now, it should be pointed out that a tropical wave will track off of the coast of Africa within the next 24 hours and this particular tropical wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean right around June 24th or June 25th and this would add heat and energy to the western Caribbean and gives some credence to the long range GFS model forecast.



BRING IT ON!..just what I want for my vacation - a tropical system!..lol
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....Han Solo: Traveling through hyperspace ain't like dusting crops, farm boy! Ever try navigating a jump? Well, it's no mean trick. Without precise calculations we could fly right through a star, or bounce too close to a black hole; that'd end your trip real quick, wouldn't it?
Luke: [notices a flashing light] ... What does that mean? What's happening?
Han Solo: [noticing it as well] Uh-oh, we're losing a deflector shield. Everybody get strapped in, we're ready to make the jump!
[And so they do]
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Quoting Grothar:
Here is an interesting excerpt from CROWN WEATHER:

In the latest model forecast by the GFS model, it forecasts that a tropical cyclone may pop up out of a monsoonal weather pattern across the western Caribbean around June 24th or June 25th and track into the northern Gulf Coast by about June 27th. Now, it should be pointed out that a tropical wave will track off of the coast of Africa within the next 24 hours and this particular tropical wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean right around June 24th or June 25th and this would add heat and energy to the western Caribbean and gives some credence to the long range GFS model forecast.



Very interesting. Thanks Grothar!
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Quoting Grothar:
Here is an interesting excerpt from CROWN WEATHER:

In the latest model forecast by the GFS model, it forecasts that a tropical cyclone may pop up out of a monsoonal weather pattern across the western Caribbean around June 24th or June 25th and track into the northern Gulf Coast by about June 27th. Now, it should be pointed out that a tropical wave will track off of the coast of Africa within the next 24 hours and this particular tropical wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean right around June 24th or June 25th and this would add heat and energy to the western Caribbean and gives some credence to the long range GFS model forecast.



Sounds like they were reading me a couple days ago.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Here is an interesting excerpt from CROWN WEATHER:

In the latest model forecast by the GFS model, it forecasts that a tropical cyclone may pop up out of a monsoonal weather pattern across the western Caribbean around June 24th or June 25th and track into the northern Gulf Coast by about June 27th. Now, it should be pointed out that a tropical wave will track off of the coast of Africa within the next 24 hours and this particular tropical wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean right around June 24th or June 25th and this would add heat and energy to the western Caribbean and gives some credence to the long range GFS model forecast.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
It should be noted that the sun just come out of a long period of very low activity, yet the atmosphere and ocean continued to warm all through that period.
Clearly you are assuming that the effect of solar changes is instantly realized in the atmosphere at or near the surface.
I don't know otherwise, but would like to consider the notion that there is a delay in between changes in solar output and sensible warmth in the lower atmosphere. (Rather than some ocean heat content storage and the change takes decades to manifest itself in the form of lower atmospheric temperature).

Anyone know if there exists a lag or not? Link?

Where is Oss?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
658. SLU
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
SLU - great post. Thanks!

:D
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Note my member date,,as I upgraded to the 40 frame Radar for Cindy,when I became a member.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Another day another fire.



Large fire burning in Mid-County

June 14, 2011 1:32 PM
Scott Lawrence

JEFFERSON COUNTY - The Nederland Fire Department along with a number of other departments and the Texas Forest Service are fighting a large fire in the 19 hundred block of Twin City Highway near Spurlock.

The fire was reported at about 11:45 a.m. Tuesday just north of Sun Marine, near the old landfill.

No one has been hurt and a dispatcher told KFDM News there are no homes in the immediate area.

The Texas Forest Service is using a helicopter to help fight the fire. Crews are making water drops on a pipeline running through the fire zone.


That must be in that one undeveloped area in between Sunoco and the Goodyear (?) plant. (Both of those might have changed hands and be named something else by now; my knowledge of the area is dated.)

Either way, that would be a good one to get under control rather quickly.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463




On June 24 a vigorous tropical wave moved off the African coast and quickly west across the Atlantic without developing. The wave gradually became more organized as it crossed the Caribbean and late on July 3 it strengthened into Tropical Depression Three about 80 miles (130 km) east of Chetumal, Mexico.[1] The models initially had difficulty predicting the track of the depression and the forecasts from the National Hurricane Center reflected this, indicating that the depression would move towards Texas. The depression developed quickly before making landfall on Yucat%uFFFDn Peninsula early on July 4 with 35 mph (55 km/h) winds and began to lose its circulation overland.

A new center of circulation began forming later on July 4, over the Gulf of Mexico, to the north of the original center. This reformation caused a significant alteration in the forecast models, which now indicated a landfall in Louisiana. The depression moved northwards into the Gulf of Mexico and became a Tropical Storm Cindy early on July 5. Weakened shear allowed Cindy to strengthen further as it approached Louisiana and the storm was a minimal hurricane with 75 mph (120 km/h) winds when it made landfall near Grand Isle late on July 5. Initially it was felt that Cindy did not reach hurricane strength, but post-season reanalysis confirmed the upgrade.

Hurricane Cindy weakened back into a tropical storm as it crossed over extreme southeastern Louisiana and Breton Sound before making a second landfall near Waveland, Mississippi with 50 mph (85 km/h) winds on July 6. Cindy moved to the northeast over Mississippi and Alabama, weakening to a tropical depression that day. The depression became extratropical over the "Carolinas" on July 7 and moved to the northeast dissipating in the Gulf of St Lawrence on July 9.



Collapsed building at the Atlanta Motor Speedway as a result of a tornado spawned by Cindy.

Impact
See also: Hurricane Cindy (2005) tornado outbreak

Five deaths were attributed to Cindy, none of them near the storm's landfall. Two people were killed in Georgia, one in Alabama and two in Maryland.Approximately 300,000 homes and businesses in southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast lost electrical power and a storm surge of 4%u20136 feet (1.2-1.8 m) affected the same area, causing some beach erosion near Grand Isle, Louisiana. Hurricane Cindy's total damage was estimated to be US$320 million.

In New Orleans, Louisiana, wind gusts reached 70 mph (110 km/h), many trees were damaged or uprooted and scattered street flooding was reported.

As thousands lost electrical power, the city experienced its worst blackout since Hurricane Betsy 40 years earlier. Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded. Many people in the New Orleans metropolitan area expected minimal effects from the storm, but were cleaning up debris and were without power for days after Cindy's passage. In Louisiana, 260,000 residences were left without power.


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654. SLU
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Not disagreeing with your general observations or with the issue of similar trends and just noting some "x" factors which can affect the numbers and tracks.....But for the ultimate A-B position last year, there was a 26% higher probablility of an East Coast strike (from FL/GA border up) when compared to other El Nino seasons pursuant to some of the scholarly articles but it did not happen last year....Likewise in 1992, we only had 4 hurricanes all season (under the early season analog numbers) but Andrew was all she wrote....This is a tough business........ :)


Yep. You're right. The position of the A/B high has the final say as to how bad the season end up being for the US and the Caribbean.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Does the recent record breaking heat in south florida contribute to the stronger afternoon thunderstorms/hail storms?


See:

Quoting caneswatch:


More rain here in RPB again. These storms the past two days have been extremely strong. This unusually hot weather is helping out a lot, but the rain is needed.


The heat helps build up the thunderstorms, and since it's hotter-than-normal, that's the reason why these storms have been severe.
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Quoting SLU:


True. But there are noticeable trends one can see when analysing analog years. I'll do an analysis on the 2010 season and compare it with it's analog years if there were silimarities.


Not disagreeing with your general observations or with the issue of similar trends and just noting some "x" factors which can affect the numbers and tracks.....But for the ultimate A-B position last year, there was a 26% higher probablility of an East Coast strike (from FL/GA border up) when compared to other El Nino seasons pursuant to some of the scholarly articles but it did not happen last year....Likewise in 1992, we only had 4 hurricanes all season (under the early season analog numbers) but Andrew was all she wrote....This is a tough business........ :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9413
Does the recent record breaking heat in south florida contribute to the stronger afternoon thunderstorms/hail storms?
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Quoting Levi32:
Here is the tropical wave I have been talking about for a couple of days now. It has just recently left Africa, and will be trekking across the entire Atlantic, eventually reaching the western Caribbean in 9-11 days. As I've mentioned before, although quite a far out prospect, it will be interesting to see if this wave interacts with a conducive pattern in the western Caribbean and/or southern Gulf of Mexico as the monsoon trough tries to lift north during the last week of June.

Levi, I think we will need a "Tid Bit" on this ASAP! LOL!
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SLU - great post. Thanks!
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2 different outlooks. But both seeing rain. Maybe. I hope so. It might happen... Lol

KBMT TV

Hot & dry through next Monday...
Posted: Jun 14, 2011 7:21 PM CDT Updated: Jun 14, 2011 7:21 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn -

Upper level high pressure will break down Wednesday and Thursday. The high will then rebuild across the region this weekend. No rainfall is forecasted through the weekend.

A tropical wave, just entering the Caribbean, is forecasted to move into the Northwest Gulf of Mexico around June 22 or 23. This is our best hope for rainfall during the next ten days.

Otherwise, temperatures will continue to run above-normal the next seven days. Afternoon highs will be in the middle-90's in the Triangle to 100 in the Lakes area. Morning lows will be in the middle-seventies...again a few degrees above-normal.

With no rainfall today, our rainfall deficit is now around nineteen inches below-normal for the year.


Lake Charles NWS

LONG TERM...THERE MAY BE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TYPICALLY THIS ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST
A CLIMO OR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EURO MODEL EXPLOITS THIS WEAKNESS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND HINTS AT EVEN BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE
NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
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Quoting ElConando:


The Hurricane force winds aren't. Don't see very strong winds with Severe Thunderstorms in SFla I mean in excess of 60mph.


True, but hurricane force thunderstorm winds are always isolated, my point was, strong thunderstorms instead of dry, empty radar screens.

We do get them more often than in Central Florida though I guess, I have experienced brief wind gust that high from thunderstorms several times before. Ive had been caught in a few serious wet microbursts.

Sometimes they pulse up so fast they don't have warnings, I got caught in a storm that blew a roof off a Toys R Us and took down some trees and power lines. The part that hit me wasn't as bad because there wasn't damage around me, but still, it was scary, my car got rocked around real bad, I got home shocked to see damage on camera for Bay News 9 but no warning was issued.
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645. SLU
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
624. SLU 8:34 PM EDT on June 14, 2011

Very well thought out analysis in terms of general numbers and possibilies but I agree with a statement made by a Blogger a few days ago that "analog" years are just that and the every season is uniquely different. Last year is a perfect example; NHC/Gray/Dr. Masters etc., looked at the "set-up" at the beginning of the season and threw out some analog comparisons (with some of the major factors tied in to early season SST indicators and ENSO cycle) and while the "numbers" matched analog years, no one could have accurately predicted the untimate position of the A-B high, and trof frquency, during the CV season where-in the heart of the seaon resulted in numerous fish storms that never threatened the US.....As such, there is no such thing as an idential season in terms of untimate tracks and landfall locations.


True. But there are noticeable trends one can see when analysing analog years. I'll do an analysis on the 2010 season and compare it with it's analog years if there were silimarities.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
837 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

FLC011-099-150115-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110615T0115Z/
BROWARD FL-PALM BEACH FL-
837 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH AND NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 834 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MISSION
BAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM!
TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2656 8021 2643 8006 2626 8007 2624 8008
2612 8010 2640 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 313DEG 30KT 2636 8020

$$


Very strong thunderstorm ongoing near Ft. Lauderdale. more typical of Florida then the dry weather as of late...


The Hurricane force winds aren't. Don't see very strong winds with Severe Thunderstorms in SFla I mean in excess of 60mph.
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Rain in Boca Raton FL, Finally!!! Ahh, the sound of rain and a good wind blowing it hard against the windows!!!
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
talk about extreme! Look at the heavy thunderstorm activity over southern Central America! GRAY area in the infrared. I hate it for the folks under that cause it is probably raining like all hell is breaking loose.

Link



I spent a lot of time in Central America, they may not get the shear there for tornadoes like here, but they get storms that can be a lot stronger. Probably the biggest adrenaline rush Ive ever had was going through a very severe storm in the mountains of Guatemala. Incredible lightning like Ive never seen, and easily hurricane force wind gusts and incredibly heavy rain.
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624. SLU 8:34 PM EDT on June 14, 2011

Very well thought out analysis in terms of general numbers and possibilies but I agree with a statement made by a Blogger a few days ago that "analog" years are just that and the every season is uniquely different. Last year is a perfect example; NHC/Gray/Dr. Masters etc., looked at the "set-up" at the beginning of the season and threw out some analog comparisons (with some of the major factors tied in to early season SST indicators and ENSO cycle) and while the "numbers" matched analog years, no one could have accurately predicted the untimate position of the A-B high, and trof frquency, during the CV season where-in the heart of the seaon resulted in numerous fish storms that never threatened the US.....As such, there is no such thing as an idential season in terms of untimate tracks and landfall locations.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9413
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
837 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

FLC011-099-150115-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110615T0115Z/
BROWARD FL-PALM BEACH FL-
837 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH AND NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 834 PM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MISSION
BAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM!
TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2656 8021 2643 8006 2626 8007 2624 8008
2612 8010 2640 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 313DEG 30KT 2636 8020

$$


Very strong thunderstorm ongoing near Ft. Lauderdale. more typical of Florida then the dry weather as of late...
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talk about extreme! Look at the heavy thunderstorm activity over southern Central America! GRAY area in the infrared. I hate it for the folks under that cause it is probably raining like all hell is breaking loose.

Link

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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Possible Tornado at loxahatchee national refuge/ west of 441 near delray beach!! Lightning storm outside of my window here in central west palm beach. No rain fell here sadly



... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 915 PM EDT
for southeastern Palm Beach and northeastern Broward counties...

At 834 PM EDT... Doppler weather radar continued to indicate a storm
capable of producing Golf Ball size hail... and destructive hurricane
force winds in excess of 75 mph. This storm was located near Mission
Bay... moving southeast at 35 mph. This is a very dangerous storm!
Take cover immediately!
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Tropical---Hey, our Pains Bay fire shows up there at #44 :)
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The eruption at Nabro Volcano is on the wane. Apparently there's very litte ash being ejected; it's mostly now just clouds of steam and sulfur dioxide. And this 36-hour animation shows that most of the erupted material was picked up and shot to the northeast, keeping it out of the MDR. IOW, unless it erupts again, we're likely to see little if any climatic change from Nabro.

Nabro
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5.0 mag earthquake off the coast of New Zealand, 19 miles ESE of Christchurch, 1.0 km down, thats only .6 of a mile down. Any news on damage anywhere?

Wed Jun 15 0:18:44 UTC 2011


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 2.5 2011/06/14 20:49:39 36.557 -121.058 8.9 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.3 2011/06/14 19:05:28 36.669 -121.293 6.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 5.0 2011/06/14 18:27:22 -43.701 173.014 1.0 OFF EAST COAST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, N.Z.
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Pretty...
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Quoting txjac:


you better poke in every once and a while and let us know how you are


I'll do that just to check on my house in NC and make sure no Cat 5's are headed that way.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Possible Tornado at loxahatchee national refuge/ west of 441 near delray beach!! Lightning storm outside of my window here in central west palm beach. No rain fell here sadly


More rain here in RPB again. These storms the past two days have been extremely strong. This unusually hot weather is helping out a lot, but the rain is needed.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Plan on going to any beaches?


I'm renting out the house I own in NC. I was at the beach last weekend :)
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Posted on an eruption blog water vapor image of Nabro.Shows SO2 traveling all the way across Iran to the Caspian Sea.Link
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Possible Tornado at loxahatchee national refuge/ west of 441 near delray beach!! Lightning storm outside of my window here in central west palm beach. No rain fell here sadly
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Quoting NRAamy:
Solar forecast hints at a big chill

sorry, that does not fit in with the Climate Change/Global Warming theory....


LOL
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Quoting naviguesser:
Interesting article on MSNBC - Solar forecast hints at a big chill, by Alan Boyle- Synopsis: after solar max in 2013, prolonged decrease forecast. Similar period may have been "Little Ice Age" in the late 1600's. Haven't checked facts on it. After everyone runs from FL because of the drought, they may be running right back...

Link


Thanks for posting that. Very interesting.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Probably got a little bit to do with $$.
absolutely
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624. SLU
Here is a very interesting observation that I made about the ongoing 2011 Atlantic hurricane season:

The analog years for 2011 are 1951, 1981, 1989, 1996 and 2008. Analog years are years with similar atmospheric patterns as the current year and they can be used to give an insight as to what to expect during the current hurricane season.

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Image showing the tracks of all 62 tropical cyclones in the analog years for 2011 indicating a heavy bias towards development in the main development region (MDR).

Storm tracks for the analog years:

1951 featured 8 hurricanes including category 3 Hurricane Able in May which is still the most powerful hurricane to develop outside the hurricane season, category 4 Hurricane Charlie which blasted through the Caribbean along a path similar to that of Dean in 2007, another Caribbean major hurricane called Dog and a rare category 5 Hurricane Easy in the south-western Atlantic.



1981 featured another May cyclone in Tropical Storm Arlene in early May and a series of four powerful September hurricanes that brushed the north eastern Caribbean and recurved harmlessly out to sea without affecting the US.



1989 featured 4 named storms by August 1st and a very active Cape Verde season in which two long-tracked classical Cape Verde-type major hurricanes formed. Category 5 Hurricane Hugo levelled the north eastern Caribbean and also caused great damage in the Carolinas and category 4 Hurricane Gabrielle which became one of the largest hurricanes to ever form in the Atlantic.



1996 was also a very active Cape Verde season which had 6 major hurricanes which is a record bettered by only the 1950, 1961 and 2005 seasons. The north eastern Caribbean and the east coast of the US took a battering. Hurricane Bertha was a rare July Cape Verde hurricane which was later followed by powerful hurricanes Edouard, Fran and Hortense.



In 2008, we saw the formation of major hurricanes in each month from July to November which was the 1st time this had ever been observed, four named storms by August 1st and a battering for the Caribbean and the US coastline.



There are several similarities with each of these seasons:

1. All of the seasons had a very early start with 1951 and 1981 having tropical cyclones in May.

2. Hurricane Able of 1951 was the most powerful hurricane ever in May.

3. Hurricane Bertha of 1996 was the easternmost forming tropical storm, hurricane and major hurricane in the Atlantic before August 1st.

4. Hurricane Bertha of 2008 broke the records for the longest-lived July Atlantic tropical cyclone at 17 days, the easternmost forming tropical storm at 24.7°W, easternmost forming hurricane at 50.2°W, and easternmost-forming pre-August major hurricane at 52.1°W (records all previously held by 1996's Bertha). Bertha is also the sixth strongest pre-August Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and was the third strongest July storm on record, behind Dennis and Emily of 2005.

5. Pre-August 1st named storm days south of 25N, east of 75W is a major indicator of an active hurricane season. The only analog year not to feature this is 1951 which did have a category 3 hurricane in May in the sub-tropical Atlantic.

6. All of the analog years had very active Cape Verde seasons with an average of 5.6 named storms forming east of 60W.

7. Twenty-eight out of the total of sixty-two named storms in these 5 seasons (or 45%) formed east of 60W.

8. The northern Caribbean, the US east coast and the Gulf coast west of New Orleans have been the most severely affected areas in these analog years.

9. The analog years produced an average of 2.8 named storms, 1.0 hurricanes and 0.6 major hurricanes by August 1st.

Based on that information, I believe we may see the follow this year:

1. An early start to the season.

2. Between 2 – 4 named storms, 1 – 2 hurricanes and probably a 60% chance of a major hurricane by August 1st.

3. A very active Cape Verde season with about 6 – 8 named storms east of 60W as a result of the above average SSTs.

4. Pre-August 1st named storm days east of 75W and south of 25N.

5. The north eastern Caribbean and US east coast may be at high risk for multiple landfalling tropical cyclones.

6. The likelihood of a long tracked Cape Verde hurricane staying far enough to the south to enter the Caribbean and affect the US.
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The East Pacific is still primed for tropical development right now, warm SSTs and a moist environment. The storms on the ITCZ just need to gain a little bit more latitude...

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NOAA satellites proved critical in forecasts of tornado outbreak


Five days before a powerful storm system unleashed a barrage of deadly tornadoes that tore through six states, NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites helped forecasters at the agency's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) know of the impending danger.

According to the latest SPC figures, there were a total of 312 tornado reports during the entire outbreak, from 8 a.m. EDT on April 25 to 8 a.m. on April 28. NOAA's National Weather Service forecast offices had a 27-minute average warning lead time for the tornado touchdowns.
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Quoting naviguesser:
Interesting article on MSNBC - Solar forecast hints at a big chill, by Alan Boyle- Synopsis: after solar max in 2013, prolonged decrease forecast. Similar period may have been "Little Ice Age" in the late 1600's. Haven't checked facts on it. After everyone runs from FL because of the drought, they may be running right back...

Link

Thanks for posting the link.

That's an interesting story, to be sure, but as pointed out in the article, the greenhouse warming effects brought on by CO2 are roughly 10 times as great as any cooling (or slowdown in the warming) a quieter sun could bring about: "Climate scientists say the swings in solar activity that they've studied so far have had little or no impact on temperatures or other climate indicators — and they don't expect to see a big impact even if the sun goes quiet for a decade or longer."

(As for the Maunder Minimum and the so-called "Little Ice Age", this was a period of increased volcanic activity--and, perhaps more importantly, the levels of C02 in the atmosphere were far lower then than they are now.)

It should be noted that the sun just come out of a long period of very low activity, yet the atmosphere and ocean continued to warm all through that period. As stated more than once here today: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and we humans are pumping 80 millions metric tons of the stuff into the atmosphere every single day. There are bound to be repercussions for such things.

Read this for a different perspective: Stanford Scientists Predict Warmer Days Ahead
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Quoting sarahjola:
i was just looking at a model here on wu and it has a nice storm hitting louisiana on the 25th and 26th. anybody know anything about that and how good are the models on wu? tia
Good evening all, Could someone be so kind as to direct me to the models mentioned above? I've searched the site and can't find where the "maybe-this-could-happen models" are located, esp. when there are no systems out there. Thanks..
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Occurrences of ENSO could typically occur every 2-7 years.



"...stayed in relatively the same state for 7 or so years"
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Levi32:


I'm unsure of where you're getting 7 years....neutral has a few 4-year periods but neutral does not count as an ENSO "episode." Multi-year La Ninas have also occurred during the cold PDO and can last up to 3 years, but no longer. A typical warm or cold ENSO event is 6-18 months before reversing back to neutral or the opposite phase. Just look at it.

Also, ENSO cycles are obviously not identical. One cannot expect 2011's La Nina to fade exactly the same way 2008's did. Expecting a month to month correlation is unrealistic, and it means nothing if 2011 differs from one year. It differs somewhat from just about every year since 1950. No two ENSO events are exactly alike.


Occurrences of ENSO could typically take place every 2-7 years.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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