Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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593. boyzNme
3:09 AM GMT on June 15, 2011
Quoting Tygor:
Glad that some of the Floridian folk are receiving spotted showers. If you aren't one of the lucky ones, just act like a Texan and give up on rain altogether. 103 all week and no rain in sight.


I was so excited to hear that aqua got rain that I had to run right out and see what today's Boca storm brought me. Well, I am glad to report that I received.......................................... .........(building anticipation)...............................

10 drops!!!!

Yes, 10 whole drops were in my rain gauge!! I felt very lucky considering that yesterday I only found 3 drops in there.

Well, I think I will act like a Texan now - at least the lighting was interesting.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 5 Comments: 60
592. TampaTom
3:24 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Wow.. the final Joplin death toll is at 153. CNN even listed them all by name...

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/13/joplin-torna dos-final-death-toll-at-153-city-says/?hpt=hp_t2
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
591. MahFL
2:29 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Smoke visible from the many fires.

Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
590. tatoprweather
2:27 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Hey,

Obama is visiting Puerto Rico today.

Last time we had a President in the island for an official visit was JFK in 1961.

Hopefully he puts an end to the colony.
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
589. hydrus
2:27 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:


so one off NC and one in the GOM..have we ever had that happen before?
Almost, the gulf low is the interesting one. If it were to happen, it would probably hang around awhile.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22312
588. Patrap
2:25 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
..pssssssssst,,NEW BLOG



This drying of the Southern U.S. and increased precipitation in the Northern U.S. is expected to occur because of a fundamental shift in the large scale circulation of the atmosphere. The jet stream will retreat poleward, and rain-bearing storms that travel along the jet will have more moisture to precipitate out, since more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
587. Levi32
2:24 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
The NAEFS also has a break over the gulf, but oriented more towards the northeast. It is formed by a trough-split from an east coast trough that moves down near the north gulf coast and reaches towards an area of low heights in the Bay of Campeche.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
586. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:24 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Oh yeah...

NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
585. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:24 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Kempsey residents ordered to evacuate
Tuesday June 14, 2011 - 19:55 EST

The State Emergency Service has issued an evacuation order for businesses and residents in the Kempsey CBD, as the flood situation worsens.

The Kempsey Bridge is predicted to reach 6.4 metres(21ft) between 1:00am and 3:00am (AEST), which could cause the levee to overtop.

This could lead to inundation of the city centre and residents are being advised to evacuate within the next four hours.


- ABC


You have real problems when your bridge starts to rise. Next thing it will float away.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
584. HurricaneSwirl
2:23 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I know. Just explaining it for the people who didn't...


I guess I misread the nope as disagreeing instead of agreeing. Whoops XD
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
583. todocopan
2:21 PM GMT on June 14, 2011


Well, according to this... we are gonna have fun this week ...
Member Since: April 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
582. ncstorm
2:21 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting hydrus:


so one off NC and one in the GOM..have we ever had that happen before?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
581. Patrap
2:20 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Wu server nervousness?


The blogs use only a fraction of the server Load on a busy day,,

3% on a busy day on avg during a Cane threat.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
580. CybrTeddy
2:20 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Very brief update from me, not much going on.
Watching for Arlene later this month 6/14/11
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
579. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:19 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


..Which is exactly why he/she said "not good".


I know. Just explaining it for the people who didn't...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
578. bohonkweatherman
2:19 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:


Hope
Never lose Hope, when you have gone 10 months with little to know rain that is all you have, hope and faith.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
577. AtHomeInTX
2:19 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Lol. She was probably citing the GFS as well.


Probably so. We're all keeping that "hope" alive. And our fingers crossed. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
576. HurricaneSwirl
2:18 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nope. When the Gulf of Guinea cools, it allows for moisture to work further north (A higher ITCZ) which puts a damper on SAL, ultimately allowing for better defined waves which could develop.


..Which is exactly why he/she said "not good".
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
575. hydrus
2:18 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
The tropical wave near the Antilles shows up well here...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22312
574. AussieStorm
2:15 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I guess this means that when the big quake sends
California sliding "off the edge"
it takes the Wu servers out to sea...

I would of thought there would be back-up servers somewhere else.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
573. RitaEvac
2:15 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I guess this means that when the big quake sends
California sliding "off the edge"
it takes the Wu servers out to sea...


hmmmm...we need to get the servers in Michigan where it belongs
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
571. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:12 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Glad to see you all made it through. Thought we got hit by a late season apocalypse.


I guess this means that when the big quake sends
California sliding "off the edge"
it takes the Wu servers out to sea...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
570. RitaEvac
2:12 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Houston is around 20 or so inches below normal
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
569. Levi32
2:12 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. That answered my question. :)


Lol. She was probably citing the GFS as well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
568. SLU
2:12 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
567. NCWatch
2:10 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Whew, was having severe blog withdrawal there for a while!
Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
566. HurricaneDevo
2:10 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Seems as if Nabro has calmed down. "False Alarm, nothing to see here, move along"

http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2011/06/14/nabro-e ruption-calming-down/
Member Since: April 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 175
565. Patrap
2:09 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
keep Hope..

Alive
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
564. hydrus
2:08 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22312
563. AtHomeInTX
2:07 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
A break in the ridge over Texas continues to show up on the ECMWF ensembles by Day 10. Any moisture available in the southern Gulf of Mexico at that time would be in a position to drift north towards Texas in that pattern.



Lol. That answered my question. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
561. RitaEvac
2:06 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
A break in the ridge over Texas continues to show up on the ECMWF ensembles by Day 10. Any moisture available in the southern Gulf of Mexico at that time would be in a position to drift north towards Texas in that pattern.



Hope
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
560. AtHomeInTX
2:06 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, though it is also fun to try to beat the models to it, and decide whether the GFS scenario could hold water or not. That's why other clues exist besides the GFS.


Not sure what the locals are seeing but I hope they're right!

Dry weather pattern continues...
By Anya Sehgal - bio | email


Forecast Discussion

Tuesday June 14, 2011

High pressure will be the rule of our weather pattern over the next several days. The presence of the high, which science calls a "heat ridge", resulted in very hot temperatures and dry conditions. Many locations in and around the Triangle will be flirting with the 100 degree mark, some breaking records, for each of the next six or seven days.The forecast for SE TX will be unchanged through the next ten days. The computer model outlooks are intolerable for Texas, implying no rain and enough surface moisture to make the heat of the day unbearable.

We are in dire need of rainfall. We are now -18.73 inches below average in terms of yearly rainfall totals. In fact the Climate Predication Center says we need over 15 inches of rainfall to solve our severe drought over SETX. It doesn't look like we are going to see any appreciable rainfall in the short term. However, some of the long-range computer models are indicating that a tropical disturbance will bring our region that badly needed rain until -maybe- June 23 or 24

The tropics are quiet for now, with a disturbance east of the Windward Islands the only feature worth watching by the end of June.

12 News HD Storm Team Meteorologist Ayna Sehgal
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
559. Levi32
2:04 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
A break in the ridge over Texas continues to show up on the ECMWF ensembles by Day 10. Any moisture available in the southern Gulf of Mexico at that time would be in a position to drift north towards Texas in that pattern.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
558. caneswatch
2:04 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting RickWPB:
I got a bit or rain yesterday too (W. Lake Worth, FL), but only about .15". I have a rain barrel set at one of our rain gutter down spouts and know that it takes ~.25" to fill up the 55 gal drum with roof run-off. It's about 2/3 filled. Hopefully we'll get some more today.




Almost an inch fell here in RPB. That was a good storm for us.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
556. AussieStorm
2:04 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Hundreds evacuated as NSW rivers rise



More than 800 residents on the New South Wales mid-north coast are being evacuated tonight as river levels continue to rise.

Many local roads are closed and some upriver communities are already isolated.

The latest town to be affected is Kempsey, where the Macleay River could breach levee banks about 3:00am on Wednesday morning.

State Emergency Service (SES) spokesman David Webber says authorities are keeping an eye on several rivers and are also watching the weather as it moves further south.

"We do have evacuation orders currently in place for Smithtown, Jerseyfield, Chincilla and some streets in the Gladstone area as well as the CBD in Kempsey," he said.

"We do have evacuation centres for those residents. We're also are monitoring the weather system as it moves slowly south.

"We're looking at the central coast and northwards over tomorrow morning and early tomorrow afternoon."

The SES began evacuating residents in the Lower Macleay Valley late this afternoon.

Near Bellingen, about 800 residents remain isolated in the Thora Valley and SES rescue officer Bill Shipp says it will be a while before the river falls.

"It could be a couple of days, because it takes a fair while for the water to come down, that's if the rain stays as it is, but if it gets more rain coming it could take a bit longer," he said.

The wild weather lashing the region , north of Coffs Harbour, this morning.

The Red Rock bowling club lost part of its roof and about 10 homes were also damaged.

More heavy rain is forecast for this evening.

Flood warnings are current for the Bellinger, Nambucca, Orara, Macleay, Hastings and Manning Rivers, with water levels continuing to rise in some areas.

More sections of the Pacific Highway are closed due to widespread flooding.

The Pacific Highway has been closed at Kempsey, between Clybucca and south of Kempsey, and it will remain closed at Corindi, about 50 kilometres south of Grafton, until at least midnight.

Major detour routes in the area are also closed, including the Oxley Highway between Port Macquarie and Walcha and the Orara Way between Coffs Harbour and Grafton.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
555. lhwhelk
2:02 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters
I thought it must be a DOS attack, maybe a disgruntled troll! Thanks for letting us know, Dr. M.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
554. PSLFLCaneVet
2:02 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Happy Flag Day 2011 America



Indeed, Pat.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
553. PSLFLCaneVet
2:01 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
-- can't breathe --

oh! hi everyone! whew. That was KREEPY



Hi, Aqua. Easy now, we can all relax. :)
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
552. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:01 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Hurrykane:
Not good:

CURRENT ANOMALIES


30 DAY FORECAST:


Nope. When the Gulf of Guinea cools, it allows for moisture to work further north (A higher ITCZ) which puts a damper on SAL, ultimately allowing for better defined waves which could develop.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
551. Grothar
2:01 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Not me. hehehe

G'morning.


Glad to see you all made it through. Thought we got hit by a late season apocalypse.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27114
550. RickWPB
1:58 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
I got a bit or rain yesterday too (W. Lake Worth, FL), but only about .15". I have a rain barrel set at one of our rain gutter down spouts and know that it takes ~.25" to fill up the 55 gal drum with roof run-off. It's about 2/3 filled. Hopefully we'll get some more today.


Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 359
549. AussieStorm
1:58 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Kempsey residents ordered to evacuate
Tuesday June 14, 2011 - 19:55 EST

The State Emergency Service has issued an evacuation order for businesses and residents in the Kempsey CBD, as the flood situation worsens.

The Kempsey Bridge is predicted to reach 6.4 metres(21ft) between 1:00am and 3:00am (AEST), which could cause the levee to overtop.

This could lead to inundation of the city centre and residents are being advised to evacuate within the next four hours.

Meanwhile, SES crews are keeping a close eye on river levels in other parts of the mid north coast, as heavy rain continues to fall across the region.

Flood warnings are current for the Bellinger, Nambucca, Orara, Macleay, Hastings and Manning Rivers, with water levels continuing to rise in some areas.

This afternoon the SES began evacuating around 400 residents in villages across the Lower Macleay as a precaution, saying those areas will become isolated later this evening.

Near Bellingen about 800 residents remain isolated in the Thora Valley.

The SES rescue officer Bill Shipp says it will be a while before the river falls.

"It could be a couple of days," he said.

"Because it takes a fair while for the water to come down - that's if the rain stays as it is, but if it gets more rain coming it could take a bit longer."

Further rain is forecast, with the severe weather expected to move slowly south.

The weather bureau is also forecasting dangerous surf conditions for coastal activities, such as swimming, surfing and rock fishing.


- ABC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
546. aquak9
1:54 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
-- can't breathe --

oh! hi everyone! whew. That was KREEPY
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
545. Patrap
1:54 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Happy Flag Day 2011 America
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
544. Levi32
1:53 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What is important to follow is if other models join the GFS scenario in next runs. If that occurs, then we have game on!


Yes, though it is also fun to try to beat the models to it, and decide whether the GFS scenario could hold water or not. That's why other clues exist besides the GFS.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
543. RitaEvac
1:52 PM GMT on June 14, 2011
Quoting Patrap:



...its hard to find a mechanic in SF at 5am.


Especially a fiber cable specialist
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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