Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011 +6
Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke
Categories: Volcano
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401. PcolaDan 2:33 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I never understood why they call it an accident...


I noticed that too. Interesting thing, go to Google translate and look and LISTEN to the translations of accident and incident. They sound very similar in French. Wonder if they have similar meanings in French!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
402. VAbeachhurricanes 2:34 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting beell:


Extremely localized increases in temperature have been noted very near erupting volcanoes.


Yes i'm sure due to the fact most things volcanos eject are thousands of degrees. Volcano's still went off when we were in what was called "snowball earth" That's how the planet recovered by creating an atmosphere.
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404. VAbeachhurricanes 2:35 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting PcolaDan:


I noticed that too. Interesting thing, go to Google translate and look and LISTEN to the translations of accident and incident. They sound very similar in French. Wonder if they have similar meanings in French!


True looked at etymology, and it states that it used to mean "an unexpected happening or event" so that probably why.
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405. PcolaDan 2:36 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting barrygilmour:

ash cloud circling the globe


Kind of amazing the effect it's having after so much time and distance.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
406. VAbeachhurricanes 2:38 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting PcolaDan:


Kind of amazing the effect it's having after so much time and distance.


plus blocks the sun just that tad bit, reducing incoming radiation.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797
407. PcolaDan 2:42 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It was caused by the 5.7m earthquake that hit the area.


A chicken and egg thing. Did the earthquake cause a crack to allow magma and gases to move, or did the magma and gases push through a weak area creating a crack which ultimately ended in an eruption?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
408. Chicklit 2:45 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
After a year of unprecedented flooding, fires, tornadoes and droughts, it is reassuring somehow that a volcano that has not erupted in 11,000 plus years would belch its contents into the atmosphere in perhaps Mother Earth's attempt to cool the planet.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10240
409. VAbeachhurricanes 2:46 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting PcolaDan:


A chicken and egg thing. Did the earthquake cause a crack to allow magma and gases to move, or did the magma and gases push through a weak area creating a crack which ultimately ended in an eruption?


Its pretty clear I think, a 5.0m earthquake hit further south at 19:20utc causing the stress that caused the 5.7m earthquake that hit at 21:03utc and allowing the volcano to blow.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797
410. spathy 2:47 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Hummm?
If I were to summarize this blog after a quick perusing?
I think I would be banned.
But WT Heck.
Here goes
Why would the media ignore an eruption in Africa?
Answer#1:
Remember Sudan?
Answer #2: Possible eruption watch ongoing in New York.
Twitter Snicker.:O(

Armageddon possibilities.
Alignment of planets is preposterous.
But rise in sea levels, melting of Ice caps,and runoff from deforestation is more than a logical cause of Earthquakes and resulting volcanic eruptions.

Tropics watch is as usual.
The models may be predicting ETC....
But "it" wont happen until it happens ,tropically speaking.

Gosh I love this place.
If I have offended any here this evening.
Its all in fun and keep up the good work.
I would not have it any other way.
Questions,Answers,Speculations,Theories,Humor.
The best of WU today.
The worst of WU today.
To WU or not to WU?

There is no question.
WU on Folks and be happy.

Spathy just having fun.


Warm Summer rain wishes to all those that are drought stricken.

Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10474
412. BahaHurican 2:54 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting Chicklit:
What is also interesting is this volcano has not erupted since the Holocene period. When there was, by the way, a dramatic rise in global temperatures. The current eruption of Nabro may be an event which occurs in response to a warming planet. Additionally, the term "trigger" may be appropriate to use in the situation that a warming planet would cause Nabro to erupt.

More:



LinkWiki

p.s. those of you who are familiar with WUground know I am neither a scientist nor a climatologist or meteorologist and have only limited understanding of the technical side of these disciplines. I am merely stating the last time this volcano erupted was during this period, when there was a sharp rise in the global temperatures; you are of course free to draw your own conclusions. But this I found interesting.
Chick, I guess it would be called a correlation... and an interesting one it is at that... very interesting indeed the idea that vulcanic eruptions might be responding to subtle temperature gradients in overall earth temperature...

Quoting PcolaDan:


I noticed that too. Interesting thing, go to Google translate and look and LISTEN to the translations of accident and incident. They sound very similar in French. Wonder if they have similar meanings in French!
Was about to say there is probably some similarity in meaning in French.... like in spanish "aventura" doesn't translate to "adventure" or "embarazada" doesn't mean "embarrassed".... words looking similar don't automatically mean the same thing.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
413. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:54 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It was caused by the 5.7m earthquake that hit the area.
the 5.7 was the eruption at four points or areas within the crater there is no know history of this volcano eruption type and this may only be a lead time to a more violent event yet to come this could be anything we simply do not know as always we wait watch see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40383
414. beell 2:54 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
FAQs - Earthquake Myths
« Previous FAQ | All FAQ's | Next FAQ »

Q: Do earthquakes cause volcanoes?
A:

No, there are different earth processes responsible for volcanoes. Earthquakes may occur in an area before, during, and after a volcanic eruption, but they are the result of the active forces connected with the eruption, and not the cause of volcanic activity.
USGS Earthquake Myths
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12838
415. Chicklit 2:55 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Its pretty clear I think, a 5.0m earthquake hit further south at 19:20utc causing the stress that caused the 5.7m earthquake that hit at 21:03utc and allowing the volcano to blow.

The variables are far too complex to attribute a simple causality.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10240
416. PcolaDan 2:57 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Its pretty clear I think, a 5.0m earthquake hit further south at 19:20utc causing the stress that caused the 5.7m earthquake that hit at 21:03utc and allowing the volcano to blow.

I disagree. While my chicken egg thing was meant to show the common argument, most earthquakes associated with volcano are the result of the forces connected with the eruption, but do not actually cause the eruption.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
417. BahaHurican 2:57 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
hey, u science guys out there heckling Chicklet.... nobody said run out and get a grant. It's an interesting speculation... with enough of a scientific "sound" to it to make quite good science fiction with one or two adjustments.... hmmm.....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
418. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:57 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting Levi32:




I wonder, if by the end of the month, TCHP will rival, or even surpass that of last years.

That would not be good thing with potential development in that time frame.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25151
419. VAbeachhurricanes 2:58 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting beell:
FAQs - Earthquake Myths
« Previous FAQ | All FAQ's | Next FAQ »

Q: Do earthquakes cause volcanoes?
A:

No, there are different earth processes responsible for volcanoes. Earthquakes may occur in an area before, during, and after a volcanic eruption, but they are the result of the active forces connected with the eruption, and not the cause of volcanic activity.
USGS Earthquake Myths


They can, they just mean an earthquake isn't going to open a hole and lava come out of it. The earthquake can weaken the land which is holding down the lava dome which is pushing up on it. The earthquake weakens it, and allows the pressure of the magma to overwhelm the land on top and start an eruption.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797
420. Chicklit 2:59 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
I am reminded of Plato's Cave.
Anyway, goodnight all.
No hard feelings.
Love the World.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10240
421. Tygor 3:00 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Glad that some of the Floridian folk are receiving spotted showers. If you aren't one of the lucky ones, just act like a Texan and give up on rain altogether. 103 all week and no rain in sight.
Member Since: May 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
422. VAbeachhurricanes 3:00 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting Chicklit:
I am reminded of Plato's Cave.
Anyway, goodnight all.
No hard feelings.
Love the World.

of course not, night chicklit
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797
423. BahaHurican 3:01 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Question: would volcanicism in a snow-bound earth be more likely to increase or decrease temperatures [I'm thinking globally, not locally]?

I'm not nitpicking; I'm now curious about the impacts. I understand the potential for cooling from a certain amount / extent of volcanic activity in a particular location. Now Chicklet's speculation has made me wonder about the converse.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
424. beell 3:01 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


They can, they just mean an earthquake isn't going to open a hole and lava come out of it. The earthquake can weaken the land which is holding down the lava dome which is pushing up on it. The earthquake weakens it, and allows the pressure of the magma to overwhelm the land on top and start an eruption.


Gee, sounds kinda like the chicken/egg thing.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12838
425. VAbeachhurricanes 3:03 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Question: would volcanicism in a snow-bound earth be more likely to increase or decrease temperatures [I'm thinking globally, not locally]?

I'm not nitpicking; I'm now curious about the impacts. I understand the potential for cooling from a certain amount / extent of volcanic activity in a particular location. Now Chicklet's speculation has made me wonder about the converse.


Well they know that volcano's were what allowed the earth to create another atmosphere during Snowball Earth.

Edit :Or allowed the greenhouse effect to start again. Not create another atmosphere. misworded.
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426. Chicklit 3:04 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:

of course not, night chicklit

night VA.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10240
427. spathy 3:04 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Geesh tough crowd tonight.

Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10474
428. VAbeachhurricanes 3:05 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting spathy:
Geesh tough crowd tonight.



Sorry Spathy, we are in serious GW talk mode :p
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797
430. BahaHurican 3:06 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
I think the earthquake / volcano thing will always be conflated to a certain extent because they are both the outcome of plate techtonics. Well it appears that way to me.... both occur at plate boundaries, and the processes that relate to the movement of plates seem to result in earthquakes, vulcanism, or both...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
431. spathy 3:07 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Sorry Spathy, we are in serious GW talk mode :p


I know :O)
Just looked like an icebreaker was needed.
Thanks for acknowledging my dry humor.
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10474
432. midgulfmom 3:08 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting Chicklit:
After a year of unprecedented flooding, fires, tornadoes and droughts, it is reassuring somehow that a volcano that has not erupted in 11,000 plus years would belch its contents into the atmosphere in perhaps Mother Earth's attempt to cool the planet.
Evening... nice post. You're a good writer.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002
433. VAbeachhurricanes 3:08 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting spathy:


I know :O)
Just looked like an icebreaker was needed.
Thanks for acknowledging my dry humor.


Always my pleasure. having a good evening?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797
434. PcolaDan 3:09 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


They can, they just mean an earthquake isn't going to open a hole and lava come out of it. The earthquake can weaken the land which is holding down the lava dome which is pushing up on it. The earthquake weakens it, and allows the pressure of the magma to overwhelm the land on top and start an eruption.


Lava domes generally erupt because of buildup of gases which eventually break through the crust. The seismicity involved is normally a result of the gases and liquid moving through venting chambers.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
435. shoreacres 3:10 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting beell:


Gee, sounds kinda like the chicken/egg thing.


Watch it. Some of us remember that chicken and that egg! ;-)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 195 Comments: 14790
436. BahaHurican 3:10 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
So potentially, at least, a theory could be posited whereby vulcanism acts as a thermostatic kind of mechanism which increases when world temperatures become too high or low to maintain life of a certain type on the planet.....

This could be a very interesting idea if spun the right way.....

Thanks 4 the input / idea, all.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
437. PcolaDan 3:12 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting spathy:


I know :O)
Just looked like an icebreaker was needed.
Thanks for acknowledging my dry humor.


crap
Just what we need now, someone coming in and chipping away at the lone iceberg still intact here. ;>)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
439. VAbeachhurricanes 3:12 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting BahaHurican:
So potentially, at least, a theory could be posited whereby vulcanism acts as a thermostatic kind of mechanism which increases when world temperatures become too high or low to maintain life of a certain type on the planet.....

This could be a very interesting idea if spun the right way.....

Thanks 4 the input / idea, all.....


Thats actually a good theory, wood cool the earth down by blocking the sun, but if the earth gets to a certain temperature the gas has more effect as a greenhouse gas? that's what you are saying?
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440. BahaHurican 3:12 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
U guys do realize that iceberg is nowhere near TX, or the GoM, even....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
441. bappit 3:13 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
www.earthquake-report.com has the scoop--as much as anybody knows. emcf30 posted a great audio report with pics and maps on the previous blog.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4356
442. spathy 3:13 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting shoreacres:


Watch it. Some of us remember that chicken and that egg! ;-)


Yes!
But Grothar seems to be silent on the subject. :O)
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10474
443. VAbeachhurricanes 3:13 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting shoreacres:


Watch it. Some of us remember that chicken and that egg! ;-)


Don't make fun off Grothar and press like that...
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444. southernbell72 3:13 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Did Levi do a tidbit for the day
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445. BahaHurican 3:14 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats actually a good theory, wood cool the earth down by blocking the sun, but if the earth gets to a certain temperature the gas has more effect as a greenhouse gas? that's what you are saying?
Yeah, that's the kind of thing I'm thinking about. An interesting premise for an "alternate world" kind of sci-fi....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
446. BahaHurican 3:16 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting southernbell72:
Did Levi do a tidbit for the day
think he did it early today.... he was working later.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588
447. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:16 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting southernbell72:
Did Levi do a tidbit for the day


yes
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25151
448. beell 3:20 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting shoreacres:


Watch it. Some of us remember that chicken and that egg! ;-)


"shhh", said the rooster...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12838
449. bappit 3:20 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting southernbell72:
Did Levi do a tidbit for the day

That just sounds weird.
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450. VAbeachhurricanes 3:22 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, that's the kind of thing I'm thinking about. An interesting premise for an "alternate world" kind of sci-fi....


It actually makes sense, there should be simple way to study that in a controlled environment.
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451. sunlinepr 3:23 AM GMT on June 14, 2011    
Oscillating 'Plug' of Magma Causes Tremors That Forecast Volcanic Eruptions


The UBC model illustrates how, as the center 'plug' of dense magma rises, it simply oscillates, or 'wags,' against the cushion of gas bubbles, generating tremors at a consistent range of frequencies observed around the world. (Credit: Mark Jellinek, UBC)

ScienceDaily (Feb. 24, 2011) - University of British Columbia geophysicists are offering a new explanation for seismic tremors accompanying volcanic eruptions that could advance forecasting of explosive eruptions such as recent events at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, Chaiten Volcano in Chile, and Mount St. Helens in Washington State.

All explosive volcanic eruptions are preceded and accompanied by tremors that last from hours to weeks, and a remarkably consistent range of tremor frequencies has been observed by scientists before and during volcanic eruptions around the world.

However, the underlying mechanism for these long-lived volcanic earthquakes has never been determined. Most proposed explanations are dependent upon the shape of the volcanic conduit -- the 'vent' or 'pipe' through which lava passes through -- or the gas content of the erupting magma, characteristics that vary greatly from volcano to volcano and are impossible to determine during or after volcanic activity.


Link
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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