Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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Quoting Neapolitan:
I see that Meteo France's Volcano Ash Advisor Center (VAAC) finally has the correct volcano:

Link

Was just about to post that. Interesting that the ash curls north over Egypt but clouds continue on westward. I can only assume it's because of altitude.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Ignore and move on...
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LMAO... you really CAN find anything on the interweb

and most of it would get us all banned for life from this blog.....

;)

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Quoting NRAamy:
I told you he rocks....

:)

Yes he dones NRAamy
+100
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I see that Meteo France's Volcano Ash Advisor Center (VAAC) finally has the correct volcano:

Link
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Quoting Waltanater:
Actually it is NOT clear to you or to anyone else that doesn't quite understand. In the original blog I never mentioned anything about me disliking the topic being discussed. I only complained about the NUMBER of posts in the blog and that they should create a NEW blog. Since you take such accurate notes on my comments, you should have known that. I know what I said, remember it and I stand by it. I think you need to retract what you said about disrespecting "just about everyone" because I HAVE NOT! In fact I feel that certain people here have enganged in PERSONAL attacks and bickering towards me and I will not tolerate that. I think you and PANHANDLE should apologize to me. Are you STILL happy now?


For your sake, I would just leave things as they are.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
Let the fun begin.

<-----Praying to be one of the 40% today

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PcolaDan = PANHANDLE, sorry about that.
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Quoting FLdewey:
I just want to see that big donut ablaze.

MMMMmmmm.... donuts.

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from the Eritrean government

Volcanic Eruption Witnessed In The Tip Of Southern Red Sea Region
Assab, 13 June 2011 -A volcanic eruption was witnessed in the tip of the Southern Red Sea region at 9 p.m. yesterday.
Reports indicated that the eruption that took place in 4 different areas around Afambo, Nebro and Sireru causing a 5.7 rector scale earth tremor.
The ensuing dust is covering hundreds of kilometers in the area, and that the quake has been heard in the greater portion of the region as a whole, according to reports.
The Southern regional Administration disclosed that the Government has moved the inhabitants in the area to a safe place, in addition to providing them with the necessary care. No damage has so far been inflicted to human life , the Administration added.
Although similar earthquake incidents were witnessed from time to time in previous years, yesterday’s tremor was of higher scale that led to volcanic eruption.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If you look closely,there is a circulation embedded with that convection in West Africa.



Levi believes that wave may interact with moisture flow from the Pacific in about 10-15 days, creating what could be Arlene.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32829
hahahaha!!

:)

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In my best baritone voice.
"Thank you, thank you very much"

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I told you he rocks....

:)
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Quoting PcolaDan:

You have made it quite clear how you feel. And since your short term memory seems to have failed you, here is a reminder.

-----------------------------------------------

2114. Waltanater 9:42 AM CDT on June 13, 2011
...and I'm still reading them.

2113. Waltanater 9:41 AM CDT on June 13, 2011
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.

2088. Waltanater 9:27 AM CDT on June 13, 2011
2085. AussieStorm 2:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt.


Maybe in a different BLOG, yes.

102. Waltanater 12:37 PM CDT on June 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?


Because they just realized that volcanic discussions are BORING!

Thank you!

I chose not to respond to his last post, due to the mocking attitude and general disrespect towards just about everyone, but I'm happy that someone called him out.

Thank you, Dashboard Cowman!
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Dashboard cowman rocks....

:)
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Here is another good volcano blog (besides Erik Klemetti's; got the link from his).

Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
169. FLdewey 6:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
I just want to see that big donut ablaze.

MMMMmmmm.... donuts.


hahahahahahaha!!!!!

:)
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166. PcolaDan

thank you!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If you look closely,there is a circulation embedded with that convection in West Africa.



would be something if that held up as it came off the continent.
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If you look closely,there is a circulation embedded with that convection in West Africa.

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Quoting Waltanater:
125. jeffs713 6:08 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
Actually, there is a new volcano erupting on the other side of the globe spewing ash all over insignificant Middle East countries! Supposedly it is the "talk of the town!"
People still live in those countries, ya know. Even if they aren't named Walt, or are part of the US, they still exist. Also, major eruptions can have a significant impact upon the climate - especially when near the equator.

If us talking about a major volcanic eruption bothers you... DONT READ THE BLOG.

OH IM SORRY! I was just answering her question. She wanted to know what else was new. Since she was talking about a WEAK LOW PRESSURE system on this blog, I thought I would fill her in on the more IMPORTANT discussion at hand. I never really said that it bothered me, JEFF.

You have made it quite clear how you feel. And since your short term memory seems to have failed you, here is a reminder.

-----------------------------------------------

2114. Waltanater 9:42 AM CDT on June 13, 2011
...and I'm still reading them.

2113. Waltanater 9:41 AM CDT on June 13, 2011
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.

2088. Waltanater 9:27 AM CDT on June 13, 2011
2085. AussieStorm 2:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt.


Maybe in a different BLOG, yes.

102. Waltanater 12:37 PM CDT on June 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?


Because they just realized that volcanic discussions are BORING!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
dewey, yes that was "Dante's Peak".... and it was awful... but not as bad as "2012"....

I say bring on the lava....Los Angeles needs a good scrubbing anyways....

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Except for satellite photos and ash charts, darn all of the information found in news articles originated as blog chatter. And it's still mostly speculative as near as I can tell.
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Quoting ncstorm:



well I am heading over to the volcano blog, maybe they are talking about tropical weather over there..
come back and let us know.
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Quoting NRAamy:
I wouldn't mind if a volcano spewed lava in downtown Los Angeles.... it would actually be an improvement....


I'm all for that!...wait a minute, don't people live there? What about those named Jeff?! eh, go ahead...improve it!
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Quoting jeffs713:
VEI 8 is super-volcano level. Mt. Pinatubo was a VEI 6.

VEI6 is defined as 10-100 km3 of ejecta.
VEI7 is defined as >100 km3 of ejecta.
VEI8 is defined as >1000 km3 of ejecta.

Nabro's last eruption is estimated as ejecting 20-100 km3, which is a solid VEI 6.


Ok
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Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Looking at the latest SAT24 images, it seems the eruption has stopped?


Still going Devo

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Just heard a short mention of the volcano on cnn.
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Quoting Bitmap7:


No VEI6 and VEI7 are more on the scale of super volcanoes. This one is more likely a VEI5 imo.
VEI 8 is super-volcano level. Mt. Pinatubo was a VEI 6.

VEI6 is defined as 10-100 km3 of ejecta.
VEI7 is defined as >100 km3 of ejecta.
VEI8 is defined as >1000 km3 of ejecta.

Nabro's last eruption is estimated as ejecting 20-100 km3, which is a solid VEI 6.
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I wouldn't mind if a volcano spewed lava in downtown Los Angeles.... it would actually be an improvement....
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Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Looking at the latest SAT24 images, it seems the eruption has stopped?


No its still there ongoing. Look at the southern tip of that small country above ethiopia, that is where its located.
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Unscramble those troll handle names. I don't know why, just bored.

tkaormst
mosrtpto
folrdaifjv
ruhrtak
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Looking at the latest SAT24 images, it seems the eruption has stopped?
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my blog is the Volcano blog....

no, wait a minute... my blog is the total waste of time, space and energy blog....

I got confused....
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Quoting Bitmap7:


There is a volcano blog?


This one's good (Erik Klemetti):

This is the Link

Sorry I initially typed it wrong since I got it from my other computer.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting jeffs713:


Nabro has a fairly sizeable crater, and geological evidence of fissuring, so it could be from a fissure, or somewhere else within the crater. Also, as a note, the LAST eruption of Nabro, according to geologic evidence, was 20-100km3... which is VEI6 or VEI7 territory.

VEI scale info

Edit: VEI scale


No VEI6 and VEI7 are more on the scale of super volcanoes. This one is more likely a VEI5 imo.
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*Yawns*
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Quoting HurricaneDevo:


You should tell us what you really think.


Yeah..... I should.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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