Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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gotta love spudsly....

;)
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The worst part is the place is full of Texans!

OMG!!!!!!

;)
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


The worst part is the place is full of Texans!


Reported.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Dry, burning heat

Western Hills, Del Rio, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
110.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.86 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 111 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1007 ft



The only blessing there is the low humidity. Not a hint of a breeze! We had back to back 105 F here in Houston a week ago and the humidity to go with it. We did have some good winds to keep the steam from settling in one place. Steam, the only form of moisture we get these days. Our crabs are already steamed right out of the water!
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110.4 yikes that is hot who needs a barbeque to cook there lol.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Gosh, I really do feel for everyone....dont know which is worse...hot and dry..or hot and humid...ugh!!


The worst part is the place is full of Texans!
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237. JRRP
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236. beell
Storm Prediction Center has been watching the MCS moving S into MS pretty closely-from the time it crested the ridge and started heading south early this morning.

MCD 1203
MCD 1204
MCD 1205
MCD 1206
MCD 1207
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16217
RPGs, bazookas, machine guns, dope, and dead guys flying around the border 24/7.

So come on down! good ol' Mexico and have a good time with family on vacation
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Quoting RitaEvac:
It's HELL to be in Texas folks. Gotta be tough to live it out here


Gosh, I really do feel for everyone....dont know which is worse...hot and dry..or hot and humid...ugh!!
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Probably little browner, (vegetation wise)and (population wise) and not a lot of anything going on except trying to stay alive from the heat, and bullets flying over the border


Used to cross the river at Laredo and Eagle Pass with my cousin all the time when we visited there. Was that safe then (60's).
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hey emc...it's like forecast as it happens around here....just keep moving the watch boxes as needed...


I heard that
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
It's HELL to be in Texas folks. Gotta be tough to live it out here
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Del Rio - ugh
been there
been over 30 years though
maybe it changed


Probably little browner, (vegetation wise)and (population wise) and not a lot of anything going on except trying to stay alive from the heat, and bullets flying over the border
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Rise and shine folks....gonna be another scorcher out there. This is the theme along the gulf coast from now on until the end of time
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Dry, burning heat

Western Hills, Del Rio, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
110.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.86 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 111 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1007 ft



Del Rio - ugh
been there
been over 30 years though
maybe it changed
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting emcf30:




Hey emc...it's like forecast as it happens around here....just keep moving the watch boxes as needed...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Dry, burning heat

Western Hills, Del Rio, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
110.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.86 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 111 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1007 ft



Now thats HOT
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Dry, burning heat

Western Hills, Del Rio, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
110.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.86 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 111 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1007 ft

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daily pop-ups.....kinda strange seeing these in north Ms....moving due south....locals didnt mention this ..if I recall...some bad winds involved..

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A bit warm today in the Metro Orlando area including the coast. Next couple days going to be warmer according to local mets
Dubsdread Golf Course
Temperature: 101 °F
Dew Point: 60 °F
Humidity: 26%
Wind: W at 3mph
Pressure: 29.65in
Precipitation: 0.00in
Daily Precip.: 0.00in

KFLORLAN52

Lockmar
Temperature: 100 °F
Dew Point: 53 °F
Humidity: 21%
Wind: S at 1mph
Pressure: 29.83in
Precipitation: 0.00in
Daily Precip.: 0.00in

South Chase Downs
Temperature: 103 °F
Dew Point: 33 °F
Humidity: 9%
Wind: WSW at 3mph
Pressure: 29.73in
Precipitation: 0.00in
Daily Precip.: 0.00in
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Look along the west coast on that satellite picture. Not a cloud in the sky. I'm looking out my window and there isn't a cloud to be seen. We are in the middle of June aren't we?

It was in the mid and high nineties here at the beach in ECFL and yet no showers this afternoon or any other afternoon for as long as I can remember.

Although... A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph and small hail over Northeast Lake County...Volusia County...

* until 500 PM EDT.

At 402 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated scattered storms capable of producing strong winds over Northeast Lake and northwestern Volusia County... moving southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Areas affected include Umatilla... Lake George... Pierson and
Barberville.

The primary threat will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph... which can cause unsecured objects to blow around... snap tree limbs or cause power outages. Heavy rainfall
will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the storm passes.

Lat... Lon 2915 8096 2884 8077 2887 8080 2886 8082
2884 8082 2882 8096 2882 8123 2884 8135
2887 8136 2882 8141 2882 8175 2896 8188
2897 8166 2929 8165 2933 8167 2940 8142
2927 8140 2927 8116 2941 8116 2943 8109
time... Mot... loc 2002z 299deg 6kt 2896 8170l

will believe it when i see it



Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11176
Quoting Jax82:


...then we should invest in Deer Creek and Zephyrhills?


If that's the only way they'll get it.

I changed my post to a link, if you wanna read it.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
217. Jax82
Quoting caneswatch:
According to West Palm Beach, they only have 22 days of drinking water left down here. If we don't get rain soon....


...then we should invest in Deer Creek and Zephyrhills?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Cantore tweet

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:58 PM CDT -- olive branch airport. wind damage to hangers and planes overturned.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting BA:
we are bone dry here in Texas



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212. BA
we are bone dry here in Texas

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The difficulty and dangers involved with getting information in the Afir Rift area.

from the Afir Rift Consortium

How do volcanologists find out if a volcano erupts in the desert when no one is around to see it? By using satellites. Volcanic eruptions produce lots of very hot material that generates infrared light. This light is detected by satellites and information on the latitude and longitude of the source is sent out to volcanologists across the globe.

Volcanologists visit the site of the eruption to collect rock samples. In the Afar Depression, the volcanoes are difficult to access and can only be reached by 4x4, trekking with camels or by helicopter. It can also be dangerous as volcanic gasses can poison and asphyxiate, the lava may be at temperatures of several hundred degrees and there is the risk of being caught in explosions and flying debris. Thermal cameras are used to assess the temperature of the lava flow.
Once the samples have been collected they are taken back to the laboratory for analysis. This is a complicated process that can take many months. The chemical composition of the erupted lava tells us about the depth of the magma chamber below the surface and how it is changing, and may also give hints about future activity.

Day in the life of volcanologist
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Neapolitan:
Two more of those injured in the Joplin tornado have died, raising the toll to 153. Incredible.

If the Woodward tornado family is excluded--as it is by some tallies--the Joplin twister is the sixth most deadly one in U.S. history. (Number five is the 1936 Gainesville, Georgia, tornado that killed 203.)


We've had severe drought, extreme flooding, record-breaking tornadoes, etc.

It is really sad to see people having to endure this.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Two more of those injured in the Joplin tornado have died, raising the toll to 153. Incredible.

If the Woodward tornado family is excluded--as it is by some tallies--the Joplin twister is the sixth most deadly one in U.S. history. (Number five is the 1936 Gainesville, Georgia, tornado that killed 203.)
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Now, everyone is trying to get into the act! A grasshopper imitating a cricket sound. He does a pretty good job too! Rich Little's class of 1986?

lol
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
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Quoting emcf30:





Now, everyone is trying to get into the act! A grasshopper imitating a cricket sound. He does a pretty good job too! Rich Little's class of 1986?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
oh ya'll are so awesome for me, stuck at work, too smokey to see the ground from the 8th floor, but I am laughing m'self silly

thank you
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Missouri River levee breach near Iowa.

Link
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post 198..... awesome...

;)
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Speaking of plumes of stuff climbing high into the atmosphere and going to distant lands: Hawaii Monitoring Stations Detect Spike in Fukushima Radiation.
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we love you too, jeff!

:)
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Quoting FLdewey:
That's a stretch Walty...

*cricket sound*


Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting FLdewey:
That's a stretch Walty...

*cricket sound*
The only thing dead right now is my visibility of certain posts. I'm not missing them...

Thanks again all who backed me up. (especially Dashboard Cowman!)
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Home Accueil
VA ADVISORY

DTG: 20110613/1800Z

VAAC: TOULOUSE

VOLCANO: NABRO 0201-101

PSN: N1322E04142

AREA: AFRICA-E

SUMMIT ELEV: 2218M

ADVISORY NR: 2011/01

INFO SOURCE: METEOSAT IMAGERY (DUST)

AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL

ERUPTION DETAILS: CONTINUOUS EMISSION SINCE 12/2100Z

OBS VA DTG: 20110613/1800Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 N1235 E04310 - N1435 E04225 - N1330 E03625 -

N0720 E03530 - N0500 E04120 - N0720 E04815 - N1125 E04815 - N1235

E04310 FL200/350 N1355 E04300 - N1545 E03920 - N2335 E03310 - N2125

E02905 - N1140 E02845 - N0650 E03510 - N0650 E04440 - N1355 E04300

FL350/450 N1435 E04245 - N1905 E03555 - N2550 E03415 - N2210 E02810 -

N1415 E02750 - N0630 E03540 - N1000 E04215 - N1435 E04245

FCST VA CLD + 6H: 14/0000Z SFC/FL200 N1320 E04215 - N1135 E05050 -

N0555 E04910 - N0405 E04025 - N0945 E03150 - N1525 E03455 - N1320

E04215 FL200/350 N1330 E04215 - N1630 E03425 - N2425 E03435 - N2400

E03025 - N1105 E02645 - N0440 E04015 - N0830 E04435 - N1330 E04215

FL350/450 N1440 E04140 - N1850 E03530 - N2800 E03635 - N2540 E03010 -

N1425 E02635 - N0710 E03225 - N0830 E03910 - N1440 E04140

FCST VA CLD + 12H: 14/0600Z SFC/FL200 N1350 E04215 - N1050 E04425 -

N1320 E05035 - N0615 E05040 - N0320 E04045 - N0755 E03015 - N1425

E03205 - N1350 E04215 FL200/350 N1425 E04250 - N1730 E03400 - N2840

E04050 - N3010 E03730 - N2145 E02715 - N0850 E02550 - N0440 E04155 -

N1425 E04250 FL350/450 N1340 E04310 - N2010 E03330 - N3110 E04120 -

N3245 E03755 - N2045 E02540 - N0900 E02415 - N0710 E03510 - N1340

E04310

FCST VA CLD + 18H: 14/1200Z SFC/FL200 N1415 E04150 - N1425 E05135 -

N0500 E05035 - N0330 E03950 - N0815 E02810 - N1330 E02800 - N1415

E04150 FL200/350 N1340 E04250 - N1830 E03350 - N3425 E04815 - N3555

E04530 - N2350 E02740 - N1000 E02245 - N0415 E03950 - N1340 E04250

FL350/450 N1415 E04320 - N2145 E03320 - N3710 E04850 - N3830 E04540 -

N2415 E02615 - N1105 E02035 - N0625 E03930 - N1415 E04320

RMK: CONCENTRATION CHARTS AVAILABLE WWW.METEO.FR/VAAC FOR THIS

ERUPTION, THE VOLCANO NAME IS NABRO AND NOT DUBBI PLEASE CHECK

SIGMET FOR CURRENT WARNINGS.

NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN 20110614/0000Z
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Quoting Waltanater:
By the way, just like your comments to me, Elvis is dead!


OOOHHHH The inhumanity!!!!!!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see that Meteo France's Volcano Ash Advisor Center (VAAC) finally has the correct volcano:

Link

Was just about to post that. Interesting that the ash curls north over Egypt but clouds continue on westward. I can only assume it's because of altitude.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.