Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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Quoting emcf30:

Thats not scheduled to blow until 2012
You and the Mayans are starting to bum me out.:(
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Evening everybody!
Thanks to Atmoaggie for that chart of the droughts, it make things very clear to ''we who do not know,''
I have been following for the last 24 hours on and off the volcano comments and thanks to Dr.Masters for his valued interest and inclusions here on this blog.
Today I got an e-mail from a man in Oregon who stated that there might be interference in the geophysics/climate of earth by some sort of planetoid/''brown star, thingie,''He said it will affect quakes volcano's and climate etc?
As I have not heard a dickey bird of this I said so and he sent me this link which he says came from NASA warning its employees to beware of disasters. I know little of these kinds of things but can there be anything in this?
''NASA Emails ALL Employees to PREPARE! June 10, 2011''
He added this ''U tube'' link!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZUPGw7p9I0&feature =youtu.be
Some really good comments on here today!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
Quoting beell:


Not quite a large as Pinatubo at 5 km/3
(3 km/3)

Is my math correct?

1 km^3 -> 1.0*10^9 m^3 so 0.3 cubic km so far, but it does have about 130 km^3 of volume; so it could keep going for a while or erupt again.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I just hope the Yellowstone caldera doesn't wakeup.

At the heart of Yellowstone's past, present, and future lies volcanism. Catastrophic eruptions occurred here about 2 million years ago, then 1.2 million years ago, and then 600,000 years a go. The latest eruption spewed out nearly 240 cubic miles of debris. What is now the park's central portion then collapsed, forming a 28- by 47- mile caldera (or basin).

Thats not scheduled to blow until 2012
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1950
289. beell
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I just hope the Yellowstone caldera doesn't wakeup.

At the heart of Yellowstone's past, present, and future lies volcanism. Catastrophic eruptions occurred here about 2 million years ago, then 1.2 million years ago, and then 600,000 years a go. The latest eruption spewed out nearly 240 cubic miles of debris. What is now the park's central portion then collapsed, forming a 28- by 47- mile caldera (or basin).


No sh...kidding. A game ender.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16856
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Humidity is up because it was raining this morning....positively muggy around here.


Ah! We haven't had more than a couple hundredths of an inch of precip over the past couple weeks, but our streams and rivers are darn-near completely full with snowmelt. A decent storm in the right spot could cause some impressive flooding. We have a slight chance of storms today, but it looks like everything's staying out on the plains for now.

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
The total volume of magma erupted from the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field since 2.5 million years ago probably approaches 6,000 cubic kilometers.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting beell:


Not quite a large as Pinatubo at 5 km/3
(3 km/3)

Is my math correct?


I just hope the Yellowstone caldera doesn't wakeup.

At the heart of Yellowstone's past, present, and future lies volcanism. Catastrophic eruptions occurred here about 2 million years ago, then 1.2 million years ago, and then 600,000 years a go. The latest eruption spewed out nearly 240 cubic miles of debris. What is now the park's central portion then collapsed, forming a 28- by 47- mile caldera (or basin).
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 613 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WELLINGTON... AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT... WELLINGTON... ROYAL PALM BEACH... THE ACREAGE... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

Rain baby rain!!!
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284. beell
how bout circles?

clickable
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16856
Is my math correct?

graph it on the chalkboard, please...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
282. beell
Quoting PcolaDan:


Not quite a large as Pinatubo at 5 km³
(3 km³)

Is my math correct?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16856
Quoting MrMixon:


Not bad (IMHO). Pretty much the same as what we've got in the Colorado foothills today except our humidity is about half that (30%).


Humidity is up because it was raining this morning....positively muggy around here.

Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1128 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN IDAHO...

PORTNEUF RIVER AT POCATELLO AFFECTING BANNOCK COUNTY

HENRYS FORK NEAR REXBURG AFFECTING FREMONT AND MADISON COUNTIES

SNAKE RIVER AT BLACKFOOT AFFECTING BINGHAM COUNTY

.ONGOING SNOWMELT COUPLED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS WITH FLOODING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIALLY COOL AND WET
PERIOD OF WEATHER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF HIGH RIVER
LEVELS.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH)
Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449
Last Update on 13 Jun 14:53 MDT


Mostly Cloudy

64°F(18°C) Humidity: 58 %
Wind Speed: W 15 G 22 MPH

Barometer: 30.03 in (1014.00 mb)
Dewpoint: 49°F (9°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles




Not bad (IMHO). Pretty much the same as what we've got in the Colorado foothills today except our humidity is about half that (30%).
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
from a tweet

Giant barricades up, pumps removed at shell station in Percival, Iowa. Flood Coming !!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


LOLOL, I've misspelled everyone's name today....I'll blame that on the heat, too :P


At least you weren't trying to spell Ichetucknee springs like scooster67 did. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH)
Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449
Last Update on 13 Jun 14:53 MDT


Mostly Cloudy

64°F(18°C) Humidity: 58 %
Wind Speed: W 15 G 22 MPH

Barometer: 30.03 in (1014.00 mb)
Dewpoint: 49°F (9°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles


Park City was nice last week.

Now:

Was about the same, then.
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Quoting MrMixon:
I know #238 was a joke, but I'm having trouble deciding if #241 was one as well...
....(not a joke).....;^)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey EYES!

Oh, I'm not DAMe - that's my cousin, DontAnnoyMeEither ;-)


LOLOL, I've misspelled everyone's name today....I'll blame that on the heat, too :P
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Quoting MrMixon:
I know #238 was a joke, but I'm having trouble deciding if #241 was one as well...


Judging by the name of his handle I'd say its a possibility it wasn't lol!
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TX state climatologist (and one of my profs) says that as of the end of May, the TX drought is the 3rd worst on record (by applying the Palmer index).


(Click for full size)


From his blog here: http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2011/06/texas- drought-update-third-with-a-bullet/
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Huge fire breakout in Volusia County near the Brevard County line. Homes reported burnt to ground in the Olsteen area. This is on of 32 active fires in Volusia ( Daytona Beach area ) most due to lightning.

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1950
Anyone else get blessed with this North Florida rain? We got 3/4 of an inch. This doubles what We have had the last 120 days in south Columbia county, Ft. White, Ichetucknee springs.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Quoting MrMixon:


Howdy back atcha. I can sympathize with the heat getting to a person. I'm not gonna complain since our spring weather has been pretty seasonable so far here in the Northern Front Range, but it's close to 85F in Louisville, CO today and I have been REALLY tempted to start whining about the heat... I'm not going to... because I know it's much worse elsewhere... but I'm tempted.

It's only 65F up at home at the moment (Nederland, CO)... and I can hardly wait to get back to it.

(For the record, the normal temperature gradient between home and work is about 5-10 degrees, so the 20 degree differential today is somewhat unusual... but heavy clouds over the mountains and mostly clear skies over the plains explains it).


Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport (KPIH)
Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449
Last Update on 13 Jun 14:53 MDT


Mostly Cloudy

64°F(18°C) Humidity: 58 %
Wind Speed: W 15 G 22 MPH

Barometer: 30.03 in (1014.00 mb)
Dewpoint: 49°F (9°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles


Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting EYEStoSEA:



A hello to DAMe and Mr Mixon.....heats getting to me~~~~~~~;P


Hey EYES!

Oh, I'm not DAMe - that's my cousin, DontAnnoyMeEither ;-)
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268. beell
263. AtHomeInTX 9:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

YW!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16856
no lactose intolerance here.... bring on the milk..... and the lava....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting EYEStoSEA:



A hello to DAMe and Mr Mixon.....heats getting to me~~~~~~~;P










Howdy back atcha. I can sympathize with the heat getting to a person. I'm not gonna complain since our spring weather has been pretty seasonable so far here in the Northern Front Range, but it's close to 85F in Louisville, CO today and I have been REALLY tempted to start whining about the heat... I'm not going to... because I know it's much worse elsewhere... but I'm tempted.

It's only 65F up at home at the moment (Nederland, CO)... and I can hardly wait to get back to it.

(For the record, the normal temperature gradient between home and work is about 5-10 degrees, so the 20 degree differential today is somewhat unusual... but heavy clouds over the mountains and mostly clear skies over the plains explains it).
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting tropicfreak:
Interesting feature near Panama, emerging into the quiet Caribbean, could be something to watch.




Sure hope so....need a whirl or twirl to watch...
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Quoting beell:


: - )


Thanks for the laughs and the Lyle. :) Never heard that before. I'm not from Texas but I like it anyway. Lol.
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Interesting feature near Panama, emerging into the quiet Caribbean, could be something to watch.


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Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
There is NRAamy...a hello to you, too.
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thanks, todd.... now where's the air freshener?
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946



A hello to DAMe and Mr Mixon.....heats getting to me~~~~~~~;P








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better to poof than poot....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Nah, just giving Spuds a hard time.


:)

Thanks for the clarification... I'm too distracted by work today (I know, I know - won't happen again) to catch everything...
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting beell:


Careful, EYES, I may have to poof you!



LOL...please dont, I may never recover, ...btw, our locals just found the weather in n Ms....have ya ever~~~~~
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253. beell
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hey Beele, does that mean that Ms "cracked the ridge"...?...lol


Careful, EYES, I may have to poof you!
)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16856
Quoting MrMixon:
I know #238 was a joke, but I'm having trouble deciding if #241 was one as well...


Nah, just giving Spuds a hard time.
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Quoting beell:
Storm Prediction Center has been watching the MCS moving S into MS pretty closely-from the time it crested the ridge and started heading south early this morning.

MCD 1203
MCD 1204
MCD 1205
MCD 1206
MCD 1207


Hey Beele, does that mean that Ms "cracked the ridge"...?...lol
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A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts
between 45 and 55 mph and small hail over Volusia County...

* until 600 PM EDT.

At 458 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a strong storm capable of producing strong winds and small hail moving into Volusia County... moving southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Areas
affected include Ormond by the Sea. Additional storms may strengthen farther south along the coast as they hit the East Coast sea breeze.

...it's so darned hot it won't rain until the cells reach the water.
Lat... Lon 2925 8100 2915 8096 2902 8087 2895 8084
2898 8087 2898 8089 2895 8086 2893 8087
2883 8122 2917 8147 2927 8135 2927 8116
2941 8116 2943 8110
time... Mot... loc 2056z 299deg 6kt 2902 8118





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248. beell
Quoting MrMixon:
I know #238 was a joke, but I'm having trouble deciding if #241 was one as well...


Made me laugh!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16856
Not looking good for wild fires in Floria

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1950
I know #238 was a joke, but I'm having trouble deciding if #241 was one as well...
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
another days work done now it sit back and enjoy the evening hope there is no trolls here cause iam not to troll friendly at the moment
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gotta love spudsly....

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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