Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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Quoting Grothar:



You rang?

Si, Estamos aqui con una problema de piedras en el universo, Y nadia tenies un idea que va a pasa dentro de 3 meses, mas o menos.

{we are here with a problem of rocks in the universe and nobody has any idea what will come of all this inside 3 months?}

every body is divided into at least 2 camps! Is this normal when the end of the world is in the balance?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2189
342. txjac
I'll keep my fingers crossed ...thanks to the three of you, Levi, Tropical13 and Beel for the update.
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The CMC ensembles continue to look rather fishy as well, hinting at low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico by Day 13:



A stream of moisture gushes out of the SSW across the Gulf of Mexico during Days 11-15:

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Quoting Levi32:
Good evening.

The 12z ECMWF ensembles continue to hint at a break in the ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico by Day 10. I have been talking for several days now about the possibility of tropical mischief, or at least moisture, making its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico or the western Caribbean during the last week of June. It is possible that some of this moisture could follow the western periphery of the ridge northward and give Texas some drought relief, but it is still too far out to know for sure.



Good Evening Levi.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
339. beell
Quoting txjac:
Tropical 13 and Beel

Does this mean some rain for Texas soon? Tired of the 100 degree days ...heck, some cloud cover would even be good.


Gosh I hope so! At least a model showing some moisture in the Gulf approaching the TX coast. Something we have not seen much of.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16923
Good evening.

The 12z ECMWF ensembles continue to hint at a break in the ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico by Day 10. I have been talking for several days now about the possibility of tropical mischief, or at least moisture, making its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico or the western Caribbean during the last week of June. It is possible that some of this moisture could follow the western periphery of the ridge northward and give Texas some drought relief, but it is still too far out to know for sure.

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Silly conspiracy. Elenin is most likely a regular small comet that will make a naked-eye appearance this October and is more of an interest to amateur astronomers than it is worth any speculation about Nibiru/Planet X. Link


So Elenin and 2005-YU55 are one and the same?
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
Quoting txjac:
Tropical 13 and Beel

Does this mean some rain for Texas soon? Tired of the 100 degree days ...heck, some cloud cover would even be good.


A pattern similar to this would result in an invasion of moisture from the Pacific, which could mean rain for Texas. However, the GFS model has shown an area of low pressure moving into Louisiana, which is where the heaviest rains would end up.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
335. txjac
Tropical 13 and Beel

Does this mean some rain for Texas soon? Tired of the 100 degree days ...heck, some cloud cover would even be good.
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Quoting PlazaRed:
I only asked an open question!

I claim diplomatic or doldrum! immunity or whatever you want to call it but the masses will be swayed and I don't know who's Rocking the Boat this time? Maybe we should ask elder, Heir Grother to adjudicate on rumor matters being even a bit older than me!

It might not be the small mass that matters, it might be the position of the mass as in the massive ship being steered by the insignificantly small rudder situated in just the right place with only a child's hand on the tiller!

Peace by superior firepower said an American chappie a while back but then there are also amibos!



You rang?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It is entering an area of confluence (sinking air) aloft, and it likely will not develop as it enters the Eastern Caribbean. Wind shear and dry air are too high to allow for it. Additionally, the TW axis is already removed from the convection around 50W 10N.


Thanks, appreciate the feed back!
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332. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
18Z GFS is still consistent with an area of high pressure over the Yucatan developing and providing great outflow channels in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. This is what you like to see for development, and it will need to be watched very closely over the next several days. The GFS has been advertising this since day 15, and it has worked its way down to day 10, so there is at least consistence.



Add this 700mb chart showing a wave and or a monsoonal circulation to the anticylone from your post and it looks pretty good.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16923
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is down from yesterday, but fluctuations in quantity can be expected this early in the season.

TCHP from yesterday:



TCHP today:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting emcf30:
Plaza, that's some scary crap. Especially the alignment with Earth, Sun, and Elenin YU55. Comes between the Earth and the Moon. WOW. A must see video.
This was a click on video in the original video.



Silly conspiracy. Elenin is most likely a regular small comet that will make a naked-eye appearance this October and is more of an interest to amateur astronomers than it is worth any speculation about Nibiru/Planet X. Link
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I only asked an open question!

I claim diplomatic or doldrum! immunity or whatever you want to call it but the masses will be swayed and I don't know who's Rocking the Boat this time? Maybe we should ask elder, Heir Grother to adjudicate on rumor matters being even a bit older than me!

It might not be the small mass that matters, it might be the position of the mass as in the massive ship being steered by the insignificantly small rudder situated in just the right place with only a child's hand on the tiller!

Peace by superior firepower said an American chappie a while back but then there are also amibos!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2189
18Z GFS is still consistent with an area of high pressure over the Yucatan developing and providing great outflow channels in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. This is what you like to see for development, and it will need to be watched very closely over the next several days. The GFS has been advertising this since day 15, and it has worked its way down to day 10, so there is at least consistence.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Again, I try to be open-minded about new and unconventional theories

Alright.... bring on the tunnels!!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
324. PcolaDan 11:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting txjac:


Your poker is going to get you in trouble one day PDan ...lol

My name is NOT Weiner. ;)



OMG!!!!!! TMI!!!!!

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
I'm not sure I understand how the alignment of the sun and the earth with a tiny comet out in the depths of space is supposed to trigger massive earthquakes. I'm open-minded, but Elenin is not even very large by cometary standards. The change in forces on the earth's crust due to weather systems moving around masses of ocean water are FAR greater than the influence of Elenin or any other small, galactic body.

The geothermal engine of the earth supplies all the mechanisms it needs to generate earthquakes without interference from distant galactic objects. I'm not saying earthquakes cannot be influenced by galactic objects, I'm just skeptical of Elenin's claimed influence, considering it's small size and it's great distance from Earth during the alignments.

Again, I try to be open-minded about new and unconventional theories and I am not scoffing at anyone who might find these theories plausible, but I'm certainly not convinced that I should worry about Elenin based on the scant evidence I've seen thus far...
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting txjac:


Your poker is going to get you in trouble one day PDan ...lol


My name is NOT Weiner. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Jax82:
Getting some nice storms here in Jax, not bad for 30% chance today.


Ran out to check the gauge and was surprised to smell so much smoke. .61 here. May be able to squeeze out another .10. Disappointed it wasn't more but thankful for what I received.
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Quoting PcolaDan:




Oh so relaxing... LOL
My son just came in and told me to turn that crap down.

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
321. txjac
Quoting PcolaDan:


I know it's spelled right. I was poking fun at (forget who) having trouble spelling. Would never had gotten this one right.


Your poker is going to get you in trouble one day PDan ...lol
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Quoting scooster67:
Look it up if you think I spelled it wrong!


I know it's spelled right. I was poking fun at (forget who) having trouble spelling. Would never had gotten this one right.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting stormpetrol:
Large tropical wave approaching the Windwards, anything on this I lost my links to all the models


It is entering an area of confluence (sinking air) aloft, and it likely will not develop as it enters the Eastern Caribbean. Wind shear and dry air are too high to allow for it. Additionally, the TW axis is already removed from the convection around 50W 10N.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Large tropical wave approaching the Windwards, anything on this I lost my links to all the models
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blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Not to mention a more massive object's gravitational field makes it easier to detect, not harder. Not going to waste anymore brain cells on this goofy subject.


the amount of mass required to create gravitational lensing of the magnitude described would be the entire milky way compressed to the size of an atom. then i can see gravitational lensing distorting light behind an object within the solar system.

gravitational lensification owes its effects to not just mass but distance as well. like i said it would trake a very massive object compressed to incredibly small purportions to cause that much warping of space in that short of distance. also earth would have been flung out of its orbit around the sun waaaay long before the object itself becomes an issue for us.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


At least you weren't trying to spell Ichetucknee springs like scooster67 did. ;)
Look it up if you think I spelled it wrong!
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Quoting PlazaRed:


Thanks for acknowledging that note of mine, I at first thought I was going a bit crazy looking at that and/or I had been spoofed, or was a victim of ''trollisums?''


YU55 does exist. Just researched it a bit. 200,000 miles is not that far for a object of this size coming close to Earth. It will be fun to watch. Hope they have their distance estimations right. Can you imagine watching it from the ISS.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
Quoting brendanjames:


watched video/made drawn out counter argument... comment waiting approval... argh !!!!

well here is what i wrote the youtube video's author. do you really know what a brown dwarf is? its a failed star... essentially something jupiter sized and larger... what the hell is a dark star? 1000s of years is a day in the lifetime of a brown dwarf, because brown dwarfs dont house nuclear FUSION eg the namesake brown dwarf... we cant see them brown dwards like the fussion cousins red dwarfs are likely incredibly old. why is the object releasing protons? that would be nuclear FISSION. completely contradictory to known star formation/lifespan ect.. you may be confusing protons for photons.


Not to mention a more massive object's gravitational field makes it easier to detect, not harder. Not going to waste anymore brain cells on this goofy subject.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Haven't looked at radar, but it is storming like heck here in Lake Worth. Conforting to hear.




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310. beell
Quoting beell:


Is not 3E 8 (from PcolaDan's DRE graph) 3*10^8 or 300,000,000 cubic meters or 3 km³?


NM, i can't count to 8...
.3 it is
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16923
Quoting PlazaRed:
Evening everybody!
Thanks to Atmoaggie for that chart of the droughts, it make things very clear to ''we who do not know,''
I have been following for the last 24 hours on and off the volcano comments and thanks to Dr.Masters for his valued interest and inclusions here on this blog.
Today I got an e-mail from a man in Oregon who stated that there might be interference in the geophysics/climate of earth by some sort of planetoid/''brown star, thingie,''He said it will affect quakes volcano's and climate etc?
As I have not heard a dickey bird of this I said so and he sent me this link which he says came from NASA warning its employees to beware of disasters. I know little of these kinds of things but can there be anything in this?
''NASA Emails ALL Employees to PREPARE! June 10, 2011''
He added this ''U tube'' link!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZUPGw7p9I0&feature =youtu.be
Some really good comments on here today!


watched video/made drawn out counter argument... comment waiting approval... argh !!!!

well here is what i wrote the youtube video's author. do you really know what a brown dwarf is? its a failed star... essentially something jupiter sized and larger... what the hell is a dark star? 1000s of years is a day in the lifetime of a brown dwarf, because brown dwarfs dont house nuclear FUSION eg the namesake brown dwarf... we cant see them. brown dwarfs like the fussion cousins red dwarfs are likely incredibly old. why is the object releasing protons? that would be nuclear FISSION. completely contradictory to known star formation/lifespan ect.. you may be confusing protons for photons.
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Quoting emcf30:
Plaza, that's some scary crap. Especially the alignment with Earth, Sun, and Elenin YU55. Comes between the Earth and the Moon. WOW. A must see video.
This was a click on video in the original video.



Thanks for acknowledging that note of mine, I at first thought I was going a bit crazy looking at that and/or I had been spoofed, or was a victim of ''trollisums?''
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2189
307. beell
Quoting alfabob:

1 km^3 -> 1.0*10^9 m^3 so 0.3 cubic km so far, but it does have about 130 km^3 of volume; so it could keep going for a while or erupt again.


Is not 3E+8 (from PcolaDan's DRE graph) 3*10^8 or 300,000,000 cubic meters or 3 km³?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16923
Haven't looked at radar, but it is storming like heck here in Lake Worth. Conforting to hear.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Why isnt the mainstream media following the eruption?


Probably because of its location, after all in that part of Africa there is a lot of desert and very few people.
Interesting comment last night about its close proximity to the Red Sea and the oil/cargo lanes but I looked on the main news stations and nothing much there, if it gets much worse they will sit up but the public in most of the world are not very aware of the goings on around the horn of Africa except for ship pirate activities.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2189
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
You and the Mayans are starting to bum me out.:(


Then you better not watch the video I just posted.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Why isnt the mainstream media following the eruption?

They're starting to come around, though as usual they're a little slow on the draw; many outlets are still saying "VAAC says Dubbi Volcano..." even though VAAC switched to Nabro five hours ago. The ash cloud is expected to affect flights into and out of the Middle East, then eventually parts of the Mediterranean, so I imagine coverage will pick up a bit.

Too, with the Iceland volcano, we had thousands of beautiful pictures highlighting the drama of a through-glacier eruption. With the Chilean volcano, we saw thousands of images of huge billowing clouds and intsense lightning. But with Nabro, we so far have just a handful of fuzzy satellite images--and news these days loves art. :-\
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Plaza, that's some scary crap. Especially the alignment with Earth, Sun, and Elenin YU55. Comes between the Earth and the Moon. WOW. A must see video.
This was a click on video in the original video.

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
301. Cotillion
10:50 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Why isnt the mainstream media following the eruption?


It seems they've only picked upon it - and that's due to Hilary Clinton cutting short her African trip due to fears over the ash cloud.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
300. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:50 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
1006MB LOW!!


That's a permanent feature, nothing to worry about.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
299. Thundercloud01221991
10:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Why isnt the mainstream media following the eruption?
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
297. Cotillion
10:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Not seen anything to suggest the Nabro eruption was bigger than the Grimsvotn one earlier this year yet.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
296. 1900hurricane
10:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
TX state climatologist (and one of my profs) says that as of the end of May, the TX drought is the 3rd worst on record (by applying the Palmer index).


(Click for full size)


From his blog here: http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2011/06/texas- drought-update-third-with-a-bullet/

He's one of my professors too! Kinda strange being here in College Station this summer and not seeing him since the end of the school year. Must be a consequence of not taking any summer classes.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
295. MrMixon
10:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting beell:


No sh...kidding. A game ender.
Quoting emcf30:

Thats not scheduled to blow until 2012


I wonder if I'll have enough time to snap a couple of pictures of the plume and upload them to wunderground before I'm buried in ash?
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
294. PcolaDan
10:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting beell:


Not quite a large as Pinatubo at 5 km/3
(3 km/3)

Is my math correct?


yes
and i get a feeling they have over estimated too
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
293. PrivateIdaho
10:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting emcf30:

Thats not scheduled to blow until 2012
You and the Mayans are starting to bum me out.:(
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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