Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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393. Skyepony (Mod)
It rained on me in Melbourne, FL today. Only .01" but I'll take anything. Earlier a car wrecked near by & caused a transformer to blow, setting the woods on fire, knocking out power for more than 3 hrs in the heat of the day. At one point, noticed the outside temp was 103.6ºF.

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I "heard a rumor" that the brownies taste "smokey" this evening...
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Quoting Chicklit:
What is also interesting is this volcano has not erupted since the Holocene period. When there way, by the way, global warming. This is not necessarily a "natural" event, instead an event which occurs in response to a warming planet. The term "trigger" may be appropriate to use in the situation that a warming planet would cause Nabro to erupt.

More:



LinkWiki
lock and load
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting Chicklit:
What is also interesting is this volcano has not erupted since the Holocene period. When there way, by the way, global warming. This is not necessarily a "natural" event, instead an event which occurs in response to a warming planet. The term "trigger" may be appropriate to use in the situation that a warming planet would cause Nabro to erupt.

More:



LinkWiki


stop it... you cant be serious?
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Quoting twincomanche:
Who calls it a accident please?


meteo france
it should read

Incident volcanic explosion or eruption
has or is occurring
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
What is also interesting is this volcano has not erupted since the Holocene period. When there was, by the way, a dramatic rise in global temperatures. The current eruption of Nabro may be an event which occurs in response to a warming planet. Additionally, the term "trigger" may be appropriate to use in the situation that a warming planet would cause Nabro to erupt.

More:



LinkWiki

p.s. those of you who are familiar with WUground know I am neither a scientist nor a climatologist or meteorologist and have only limited understanding of the technical side of these disciplines. I am merely stating the last time this volcano erupted was during this period, when there was a sharp rise in the global temperatures; you are of course free to draw your own conclusions. But this I found interesting.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390

ash cloud circling the globe
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Meteofrance, in the graphic in 381.
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Quoting bappit:

Probably because no video or pics.
yep move along nothing to see here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting PcolaDan:
Interesting the different direction the ash went at various altitudes.





I never understood why they call it an accident...
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Interesting the different direction the ash went at various altitudes.



Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
AUSTRALIA Darwin Ash Volcanic Advisory Centre

BOM tracks the ash-cloud progress. Apparently, there is only a 18 hour window to get the backlog of flights up to speed, before the next ash cloud closes down New Zealand and Australia flights again.

Some good pics of the Chilean volcano are at
Link


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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i like Levi32 he know his tropical weather a lot.
yes, he certainly does

We are very fortunate to have him on this blog

thanks Levi for all your time and effort
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376. beell
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Not gona happen maybe an upgrade to moderate for winds but if it was for hail or tornado's there would be a hatched area


There are no probabilistic's given for specific types of severe (hail, wind, tornado) on the Day 2 or Day 3 products. Just "Any Severe Weather" probabilities.

SPC Products

Cap looks pretty strong again tomorrow at this point.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwestern Tennessee in a 30% area for tomorrow. This may end up being upgraded to a moderate risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds gusts.


Not gona happen maybe an upgrade to moderate for winds but if it was for hail or tornado's there would be a hatched area
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Quoting Jax82:


Wunderground currently says for my location 76 degrees, 'Thunderstorm Smoke', thats a first.

06/13/2011 0750 PM

Jacksonville Intl , Duval County.

Downburst, reported by ASOS.


A downburst wind gust of 57 mph was measured at the
Jacksonville International Airport. The downburst dropped
directly over the Airport complex

Lucky it was not on the glidepath approach....
difficult to bring an aircraft out of that, if you only have 200 feet to play with and throttles laid back....
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Quoting RMuller:


The GFS is consistently inconsistent and more than that is consistently inaccurate. I can't remember a time that the GFS has been accurate in a forecast for a period over about four days after the cyclone has already formed.
Is there any statistics out there showing, historically which models are the most accurate?
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This photo below shows ash cloud from Nabro reaching Khartoum (Red dot)

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1952
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

Wow. Can't believe pple are still in hospital because of that tornado... much less dying.... :o( And this is the tornado some politicians scoffed at and told people they should only get help if they give rich people tax breaks...

I took some time to read through the rest of the posts and was impressed by the amount of information available on the Nabro eruption. It's pretty much a remote area there, but I was still hoping we'd get some pictures back by now.... however, it seems we'll have to wait a bit longer.

On the ATL Twave approaching the lesser Antilles [not the one over them right now] I'm holding out hopes is will hold together enough to bring some rain to that part of the Caribbean. I'm actually surprised it's still hanging together as well as it is and as far north as it is. However, I'm sure the dead zone on the other side of the Antilles will do it in.... at least enough to keep it dormant until it crosses into the EPac.



I have only seen one picture. Not too impressive, could be a dust storm as far as I know. (I'm not doubting the person mind you, but I wouldn't know the difference.)

"UPDATE 13/06 – 19:20 UTC : We got the following report out of Logia, Afar, Ethiopia : I’m an exploration geologist currently based in a camp near Logia, in the Afar desert in Ethiopia. We are approximately 200 km south-southwest of the volcano. We’ve been sat in the ash cloud since yesterday evening."
See also his picture of the ash graying the sky and the horizon
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting FLdewey:
Why would the media follow the eruption? Jeez an eruption in Hawaii with HD video of houses being burned only gets 10 seconds on the news... this eruption won't get a mention until it starts significantly messing with air travel.
I think somebody's earlier comment about lack of imagery is also true. [Nea?] I'm sure that photos or video would be pretty dramatic, but that satellite imagery is not going to get the average member of the public going....
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Evening all.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Two more of those injured in the Joplin tornado have died, raising the toll to 153. Incredible.

If the Woodward tornado family is excluded--as it is by some tallies--the Joplin twister is the sixth most deadly one in U.S. history. (Number five is the 1936 Gainesville, Georgia, tornado that killed 203.)
Wow. Can't believe pple are still in hospital because of that tornado... much less dying.... :o( And this is the tornado some politicians scoffed at and told people they should only get help if they give rich people tax breaks...

I took some time to read through the rest of the posts and was impressed by the amount of information available on the Nabro eruption. It's pretty much a remote area there, but I was still hoping we'd get some pictures back by now.... however, it seems we'll have to wait a bit longer.

On the ATL Twave approaching the lesser Antilles [not the one over them right now] I'm holding out hopes is will hold together enough to bring some rain to that part of the Caribbean. I'm actually surprised it's still hanging together as well as it is and as far north as it is. However, I'm sure the dead zone on the other side of the Antilles will do it in.... at least enough to keep it dormant until it crosses into the EPac.

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The 00:00 UTC advisory and graphics of Nabro Volcano.

Link
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Quoting Hurrykane:


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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Why isnt the mainstream media following the eruption?

Probably because no video or pics.
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Quoting emcf30:


I was referencing to:
2005 YU55, also written as 2005 YU55, is a potentially hazardous object[2] that is 400 meters in diameter.[3] It was discovered on 28 December 2005 by Robert S. McMillan at Steward Observatory, Kitt Peak.[1]

In February 2010 it was rated 1 on the Torino Scale. On 19 April 2010, highly accurate radar targeting by the Arecibo radio telescope reduced uncertainties about the orbit by 50 percent.[4] This improvement eliminated any possibility of an impact with the Earth for the next 100 years.[4] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 22 April 2010.[5]

On 8 November 2011 at 23:28 UT, the asteroid will safely pass within 0.85 lunar distances of the Earth.[3] A lunar distance of 0.85 is also 0.00217 AU (325,000 km; 202,000 mi).[3] On 9 November 2011 at 07:13 UT, the asteroid will pass 0.00160 AU (239,000 km; 149,000 mi) from the moon.


I was referencing to
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C%2F2010%20 X1;orb=1;cad=1;cov=0;log=0#cad

(not worked in IE9, but works fine in Firefox, Opera)
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Thanks to everybody for a splendid night and all the input for our friend in Oregon.
8/c here in Northern England, near full moon, mackerel skies in its light 1.30am. Wish I was back in Spain! Night Night everybody.
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwestern Tennessee in a 30% area for tomorrow. This may end up being upgraded to a moderate risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds gusts.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
The 12z NAEFS ensemble spread on Day 13 shows variance in the Gulf of Mexico which came out of the Bay of Campeche, indicating that at least a few members are showing low pressure there.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, in other words, Tropical Development is not a given in W Caribbean/BOC if I read your analysis right?


Nothing is a given 10-15 days out. The idea is to pick out the clues as to what may happen, and then start to hone in on it as the possible event gets closer.
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Quoting Alexpvf:


from JPL

C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
Classification: Hyperbolic Comet SPK-ID: 1003113

Close-Approach Data ..
Date/Time (TDB)
2011-Oct-16 19:52

Time Uncertainty
(days_HH:MM)
< 00:01

Nominal Distance (AU)
0.233851037758309
Minimum Distance (AU)
0.233828080545107
Maximum Distance (AU)
0.233873995123551

Modified
2011-Jun-12 14:00

1AU = 149597870 km = 92956000 mi



too far from Earth


I was referencing to:
2005 YU55, also written as 2005 YU55, is a potentially hazardous object[2] that is 400 meters in diameter.[3] It was discovered on 28 December 2005 by Robert S. McMillan at Steward Observatory, Kitt Peak.[1]

In February 2010 it was rated 1 on the Torino Scale. On 19 April 2010, highly accurate radar targeting by the Arecibo radio telescope reduced uncertainties about the orbit by 50 percent.[4] This improvement eliminated any possibility of an impact with the Earth for the next 100 years.[4] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 22 April 2010.[5]

On 8 November 2011 at 23:28 UT, the asteroid will safely pass within 0.85 lunar distances of the Earth.[3] A lunar distance of 0.85 is also 0.00217 AU (325,000 km; 202,000 mi).[3] On 9 November 2011 at 07:13 UT, the asteroid will pass 0.00160 AU (239,000 km; 149,000 mi) from the moon.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1952
Levi, in other words, Tropical Development is not a given in W Caribbean/BOC if I read your analysis right?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


My mistake. I remember seeing it once, and for some reason, it popped into my head that the GFS was being consistent with it.


It's ok. I've done the same thing lots of times lol.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


So, should we warn NRAamy and have her lock and load? ;>)


Not yet. Let's wait another couple of days first before pulling the alarm. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting Levi32:


It's not consistent with that solution. I've seen it maybe twice. Most of the runs keep the low in the Bay of Campeche or don't develop it fully at all and keep it south. However, a drift northeastward looks very possible with that pattern. We will have to see.


My mistake. I remember seeing it once, and for some reason, it popped into my head that the GFS was being consistent with it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting emcf30:
Plaza, that's some scary crap. Especially the alignment with Earth, Sun, and Elenin YU55. Comes between the Earth and the Moon. WOW. A must see video.
This was a click on video in the original video.



from JPL

C/2010 X1 (Elenin)
Classification: Hyperbolic Comet SPK-ID: 1003113

Close-Approach Data ..
Date/Time (TDB)
2011-Oct-16 19:52

Time Uncertainty
(days_HH:MM)
< 00:01

Nominal Distance (AU)
0.233851037758309
Minimum Distance (AU)
0.233828080545107
Maximum Distance (AU)
0.233873995123551

Modified
2011-Jun-12 14:00

1AU = 149597870 km = 92956000 mi



too far from Earth
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AGAIN, I'm surrounded. But it's moving south so I have a chance.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


A pattern similar to this would result in an invasion of moisture from the Pacific, which could mean rain for Texas. However, the GFS model is also consistent in bringing an area of low pressure into Louisiana, which is where the heaviest rains would end up.


So, should we warn NRAamy and have her lock and load? ;>)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


A pattern similar to this would result in an invasion of moisture from the Pacific, which could mean rain for Texas. However, the GFS model is also consistent in bringing an area of low pressure into Louisiana, which is where the heaviest rains would end up.


It's not consistent with that solution. I've seen it maybe twice. Most of the runs keep the low in the Bay of Campeche or don't develop it fully at all and keep it south. However, a drift northeastward looks very possible with that pattern. We will have to see.
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Quoting Grothar:



You rang?

Si, Estamos aqui con una problema de piedras en el universo, Y nadia tenies un idea que va a pasa dentro de 3 meses, mas o menos.

{we are here with a problem of rocks in the universe and nobody has any idea what will come of all this inside 3 months?}

every body is divided into at least 2 camps! Is this normal when the end of the world is in the balance?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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