Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.

Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.

Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)

Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.

Categories: Volcano

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151. HurricaneDevo 6:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Looking at the latest SAT24 images, it seems the eruption has stopped? Member Since: April 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 116

152. tropicfreak 6:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Unscramble those troll handle names. I don't know why, just bored. tkaormst mosrtpto folrdaifjv ruhrtak Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

154. Bitmap7 6:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDevo: Looking at the latest SAT24 images, it seems the eruption has stopped? No its still there ongoing. Look at the southern tip of that small country above ethiopia, that is where its located. Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

155. NRAamy 6:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
I wouldn't mind if a volcano spewed lava in downtown Los Angeles.... it would actually be an improvement.... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

156. jeffs713 6:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Bitmap7: No VEI6 and VEI7 are more on the scale of super volcanoes. This one is more likely a VEI5 imo. VEI 8 is super-volcano level. Mt. Pinatubo was a VEI 6. VEI6 is defined as 10-100 km3 of ejecta. VEI7 is defined as >100 km3 of ejecta. VEI8 is defined as >1000 km3 of ejecta. Nabro's last eruption is estimated as ejecting 20-100 km3, which is a solid VEI 6. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

157. Bitmap7 6:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Just heard a short mention of the volcano on cnn. Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

158. emcf30 6:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDevo: Looking at the latest SAT24 images, it seems the eruption has stopped? Still going Devo Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

159. ncstorm 6:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting pottery: Just another one of my Assumptions... I would be surprised if there isnt one though. Have you looked? I have not. well I am heading over to the volcano blog, maybe they are talking about tropical weather over there.. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8418

161. Bitmap7 6:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713: VEI 8 is super-volcano level. Mt. Pinatubo was a VEI 6. VEI6 is defined as 10-100 km3 of ejecta. VEI7 is defined as >100 km3 of ejecta. VEI8 is defined as >1000 km3 of ejecta. Nabro's last eruption is estimated as ejecting 20-100 km3, which is a solid VEI 6. Ok Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

162. Waltanater 6:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting NRAamy: I wouldn't mind if a volcano spewed lava in downtown Los Angeles.... it would actually be an improvement.... I'm all for that!...wait a minute, don't people live there? What about those named Jeff?! eh, go ahead...improve it! Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 918

163. Waltanater 6:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting ncstorm: well I am heading over to the volcano blog, maybe they are talking about tropical weather over there.. come back and let us know. Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 918

164. aspectre 6:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Except for satellite photos and ash charts, darn all of the information found in news articles originated as blog chatter. And it's still mostly speculative as near as I can tell. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

165. NRAamy 6:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
dewey, yes that was "Dante's Peak".... and it was awful... but not as bad as "2012".... I say bring on the lava....Los Angeles needs a good scrubbing anyways.... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

166. PcolaDan 6:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater: 125. jeffs713 6:08 PM GMT on June 13, 2011 Quoting Waltanater: Actually, there is a new volcano erupting on the other side of the globe spewing ash all over insignificant Middle East countries! Supposedly it is the "talk of the town!" People still live in those countries, ya know. Even if they aren't named Walt, or are part of the US, they still exist. Also, major eruptions can have a significant impact upon the climate - especially when near the equator. If us talking about a major volcanic eruption bothers you... DONT READ THE BLOG. OH IM SORRY! I was just answering her question. She wanted to know what else was new. Since she was talking about a WEAK LOW PRESSURE system on this blog, I thought I would fill her in on the more IMPORTANT discussion at hand. I never really said that it bothered me, JEFF. You have made it quite clear how you feel. And since your short term memory seems to have failed you, here is a reminder. ----------------------------------------------- 2114. Waltanater 9:42 AM CDT on June 13, 2011 ...and I'm still reading them. 2113. Waltanater 9:41 AM CDT on June 13, 2011 2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011 Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense. 2088. Waltanater 9:27 AM CDT on June 13, 2011 2085. AussieStorm 2:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011 Quoting Waltanater: We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East. We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt. Maybe in a different BLOG, yes. 102. Waltanater 12:37 PM CDT on June 13, 2011 Quoting jeffs713: Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR? Because they just realized that volcanic discussions are BORING! Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

167. Tropicsweatherpr 6:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
If you look closely,there is a circulation embedded with that convection in West Africa. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8160

168. HurricaneDevo 6:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: If you look closely,there is a circulation embedded with that convection in West Africa. would be something if that held up as it came off the continent. Member Since: April 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 116

170. NRAamy 6:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
166. PcolaDan thank you! Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

171. NRAamy 6:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
169. FLdewey 6:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2011 I just want to see that big donut ablaze. MMMMmmmm.... donuts. hahahahahahaha!!!!! :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

172. Chicklit 6:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Here is another good volcano blog (besides Erik Klemetti's; got the link from his). Link Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

174. NRAamy 6:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Dashboard cowman rocks.... :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

175. jeffs713 6:53 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: You have made it quite clear how you feel. And since your short term memory seems to have failed you, here is a reminder. ----------------------------------------------- 2114. Waltanater 9:42 AM CDT on June 13, 2011 ...and I'm still reading them. 2113. Waltanater 9:41 AM CDT on June 13, 2011 2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011 Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense. 2088. Waltanater 9:27 AM CDT on June 13, 2011 2085. AussieStorm 2:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011 Quoting Waltanater: We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East. We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt. Maybe in a different BLOG, yes. 102. Waltanater 12:37 PM CDT on June 13, 2011 Quoting jeffs713: Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR? Because they just realized that volcanic discussions are BORING! Thank you! I chose not to respond to his last post, due to the mocking attitude and general disrespect towards just about everyone, but I'm happy that someone called him out. Thank you, Dashboard Cowman! Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

176. NRAamy 6:54 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
I told you he rocks.... :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

177. PcolaDan 6:56 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
In my best baritone voice. "Thank you, thank you very much" Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

178. NRAamy 6:57 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
hahahaha!! :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

179. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: If you look closely,there is a circulation embedded with that convection in West Africa. Levi believes that wave may interact with moisture flow from the Pacific in about 10-15 days, creating what could be Arlene. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25289

181. PcolaDan 7:02 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
from the Eritrean government Volcanic Eruption Witnessed In The Tip Of Southern Red Sea Region Assab, 13 June 2011 -A volcanic eruption was witnessed in the tip of the Southern Red Sea region at 9 p.m. yesterday. Reports indicated that the eruption that took place in 4 different areas around Afambo, Nebro and Sireru causing a 5.7 rector scale earth tremor. The ensuing dust is covering hundreds of kilometers in the area, and that the quake has been heard in the greater portion of the region as a whole, according to reports. The Southern regional Administration disclosed that the Government has moved the inhabitants in the area to a safe place, in addition to providing them with the necessary care. No damage has so far been inflicted to human life , the Administration added. Although similar earthquake incidents were witnessed from time to time in previous years, yesterday’s tremor was of higher scale that led to volcanic eruption. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

182. HurricaneDevo 7:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: I just want to see that big donut ablaze. MMMMmmmm.... donuts. Member Since: April 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 116

183. Waltanater 7:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
PcolaDan = PANHANDLE, sorry about that. Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 918

184. ProgressivePulse 7:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Let the fun begin. <-----Praying to be one of the 40% today Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

185. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:09 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater: Actually it is NOT clear to you or to anyone else that doesn't quite understand. In the original blog I never mentioned anything about me disliking the topic being discussed. I only complained about the NUMBER of posts in the blog and that they should create a NEW blog. Since you take such accurate notes on my comments, you should have known that. I know what I said, remember it and I stand by it. I think you need to retract what you said about disrespecting "just about everyone" because I HAVE NOT! In fact I feel that certain people here have enganged in PERSONAL attacks and bickering towards me and I will not tolerate that. I think you and PANHANDLE should apologize to me. Are you STILL happy now? For your sake, I would just leave things as they are. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25289

188. Neapolitan 7:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
I see that Meteo France's Volcano Ash Advisor Center (VAAC) finally has the correct volcano: Link Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11153

189. FtMyersgal 7:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting NRAamy: I told you he rocks.... :) Yes he dones NRAamy +100 Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 991

190. NRAamy 7:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
LMAO... you really CAN find anything on the interweb and most of it would get us all banned for life from this blog..... ;) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

192. NRAamy 7:15 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Ignore and move on... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

193. PcolaDan 7:15 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: I see that Meteo France's Volcano Ash Advisor Center (VAAC) finally has the correct volcano: Link Was just about to post that. Interesting that the ash curls north over Egypt but clouds continue on westward. I can only assume it's because of altitude. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

194. PcolaDan 7:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater: By the way, just like your comments to me, Elvis is dead! OOOHHHH The inhumanity!!!!!! Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

195. Bitmap7 7:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Home Accueil VA ADVISORY DTG: 20110613/1800Z VAAC: TOULOUSE VOLCANO: NABRO 0201-101 PSN: N1322E04142 AREA: AFRICA-E SUMMIT ELEV: 2218M ADVISORY NR: 2011/01 INFO SOURCE: METEOSAT IMAGERY (DUST) AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL ERUPTION DETAILS: CONTINUOUS EMISSION SINCE 12/2100Z OBS VA DTG: 20110613/1800Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 N1235 E04310 - N1435 E04225 - N1330 E03625 - N0720 E03530 - N0500 E04120 - N0720 E04815 - N1125 E04815 - N1235 E04310 FL200/350 N1355 E04300 - N1545 E03920 - N2335 E03310 - N2125 E02905 - N1140 E02845 - N0650 E03510 - N0650 E04440 - N1355 E04300 FL350/450 N1435 E04245 - N1905 E03555 - N2550 E03415 - N2210 E02810 - N1415 E02750 - N0630 E03540 - N1000 E04215 - N1435 E04245 FCST VA CLD + 6H: 14/0000Z SFC/FL200 N1320 E04215 - N1135 E05050 - N0555 E04910 - N0405 E04025 - N0945 E03150 - N1525 E03455 - N1320 E04215 FL200/350 N1330 E04215 - N1630 E03425 - N2425 E03435 - N2400 E03025 - N1105 E02645 - N0440 E04015 - N0830 E04435 - N1330 E04215 FL350/450 N1440 E04140 - N1850 E03530 - N2800 E03635 - N2540 E03010 - N1425 E02635 - N0710 E03225 - N0830 E03910 - N1440 E04140 FCST VA CLD + 12H: 14/0600Z SFC/FL200 N1350 E04215 - N1050 E04425 - N1320 E05035 - N0615 E05040 - N0320 E04045 - N0755 E03015 - N1425 E03205 - N1350 E04215 FL200/350 N1425 E04250 - N1730 E03400 - N2840 E04050 - N3010 E03730 - N2145 E02715 - N0850 E02550 - N0440 E04155 - N1425 E04250 FL350/450 N1340 E04310 - N2010 E03330 - N3110 E04120 - N3245 E03755 - N2045 E02540 - N0900 E02415 - N0710 E03510 - N1340 E04310 FCST VA CLD + 18H: 14/1200Z SFC/FL200 N1415 E04150 - N1425 E05135 - N0500 E05035 - N0330 E03950 - N0815 E02810 - N1330 E02800 - N1415 E04150 FL200/350 N1340 E04250 - N1830 E03350 - N3425 E04815 - N3555 E04530 - N2350 E02740 - N1000 E02245 - N0415 E03950 - N1340 E04250 FL350/450 N1415 E04320 - N2145 E03320 - N3710 E04850 - N3830 E04540 - N2415 E02615 - N1105 E02035 - N0625 E03930 - N1415 E04320 RMK: CONCENTRATION CHARTS AVAILABLE WWW.METEO.FR/VAAC FOR THIS ERUPTION, THE VOLCANO NAME IS NABRO AND NOT DUBBI PLEASE CHECK SIGMET FOR CURRENT WARNINGS. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN 20110614/0000Z Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

197. jeffs713 7:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: That's a stretch Walty... cricket sound The only thing dead right now is my visibility of certain posts. I'm not missing them... Thanks again all who backed me up. (especially Dashboard Cowman!) Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

198. emcf30 7:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: That's a stretch Walty... cricket sound Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

199. NRAamy 7:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
we love you too, jeff! :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

200. Neapolitan 7:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Speaking of plumes of stuff climbing high into the atmosphere and going to distant lands: Hawaii Monitoring Stations Detect Spike in Fukushima Radiation. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11153

201. NRAamy 7:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
post 198..... awesome... ;) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

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