Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Its pretty clear I think, a 5.0m earthquake hit further south at 19:20utc causing the stress that caused the 5.7m earthquake that hit at 21:03utc and allowing the volcano to blow.


OR built up pressure from gases and magma trying to push through the crust caused an earthquake, which may have made the cracks in the crust weaker, ultimately allowing the volcano to go off.

Both ideas presented in your post and my post may be correct, so I wouldn't be so quick to settle on one.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

What job, if I may ask?


I'll be job hunting - probably - first weeks of July. Looking for IT-related stuff.
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Quoting serialteg:


Of course, if I don't land that job in NYC.
What job, if I may ask?
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Also, for those of you who would like to have the 2005 Season,
Good Night...



Lookin' forward to blogging incessantly, as per hurricane season in Puerto Rico, and counting with my fellow countrymen. Of course, if I don't land that job in NYC.

Edit: I guess I'll still come in if I'm outside the cone.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Of course, there are always uncertainties.


Understatement of the day.
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The global models are developing another tropical cyclone in a similar location to Adrian during the Sunday/Monday (June 19 - 20) time frame. In particular, the GFS and ECMWF show a fairly deep system, and while the remainder of the global models are less aggressive, they too indicate at least some sort of development in the region. The GFS has been persistent in developing this system. The likely candidate is a tropical wave currently moving through the eastern Caribbean.

As of now, the models show a large threat to southwestern Mexico as a persistent trough dominants the western United States. Of course, there are always uncertainties.
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where did ev1 go
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Also, for those of you who would like to have the 2005 Season,
Good Night...

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Take a look at 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season in just 4:27 minutes...



Summary in that youtube Video:
The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream's position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.


thank you, i loved the video
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Quoting 1992Andrew:



Thanks for the link. Video on 2010 hurricane season was enjoyable and enlightening. For sure, the yucatan peninsula region suffered most from the north atlantic 2010 hurricane season.
I also enjoyed that video and also had the opportunity to observe why here in PR we had a record rainy season... Now I'm looking for the individual videos (time lapse) of every month (somewhere there in Youtube).. they are worth for collecting them and comparing the atmospheric behaviour of every month and year... If you use Mozilla Firefox you can download the videos using an add on called downloadHelper...
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Take a look at 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season in just 4:27 minutes...



Summary in that youtube Video:
The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream's position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.



Thanks for the link. Video on 2010 hurricane season was enjoyable and enlightening. For sure, the yucatan peninsula region suffered most from the north atlantic 2010 hurricane season.
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Quoting aquak9:
Thank you all and I am not bragging- I did a big rain prayer to God yesterday, held up the corn stalks and thanked Him, then asked Him to PLEASE send rain so that things would still grow.

And I prayed for everyone- Texas too- probably so loud that the neighbors heard me.

Then...it became so very hot and smokey, I had to give up gardening and go inside- but I had FAITH, I always have FAITH-

And it RAINED!!

ok, returning ya'll to your regularly scheduled programming...


Since you're a praying person, why don't you pray I get the severe thunderstorm I've been yearning for? Nature keeps teasing me. :)
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480. VTG
Saw a lot of reports on WEAR FB page about it. North of I10 out towards Pine Forest road. Lot of power outages still.

I heard about the outages on the news. Fortunately I didn't lose power at my house, but some trees around here fell down (probably a good thing, since they died way back during Ivan and Dennis).
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Take a look at 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season in just 4:27 minutes...



Summary in that youtube Video:
The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream's position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
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It may be better to be more specific...Like, instead of asking for rain, ask for a certain amount of rain, like 2 inches or something.

I would never be one to specify my prayers, I leave that part up to Him. I am just so very grateful.

Tropical wave? Go baby go!!
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Quoting spathy:


Yes!
But Grothar seems to be silent on the subject. :O)
Are we talking about the chicken that crossed the road or the egg that rolled off the barn roof?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have a new Tropical Wave in the surface charts at 00z around 20W.



This tropical wave will come into play with possible development 10 days or so from now.
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Quoting aquak9:
Thank you all and I am not bragging- I did a big rain prayer to God yesterday, held up the corn stalks and thanked Him, then asked Him to PLEASE send rain so that things would still grow.

And I prayed for everyone- Texas too- probably so loud that the neighbors heard me.

Then...it became so very hot and smokey, I had to give up gardening and go inside- but I had FAITH, I always have FAITH-

And it RAINED!!

ok, returning ya'll to your regularly scheduled programming...


It may be better to be more specific...Like, instead of asking for rain, ask for a certain amount of rain, like 2 inches or something.

It's nice to actually get it anyways though isn't it?
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We have a new Tropical Wave in the surface charts at 00z around 20W.

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Quoting aquak9:
Thank you all and I am not bragging- I did a big rain prayer to God yesterday, held up the corn stalks and thanked Him, then asked Him to PLEASE send rain so that things would still grow.

And I prayed for everyone- Texas too- probably so loud that the neighbors heard me.

Then...it became so very hot and smokey, I had to give up gardening and go inside- but I had FAITH, I always have FAITH-

And it RAINED!!

ok, returning ya'll to your regularly scheduled programming...



Ohhh what good news....I am so glad :)
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Thank you all and I am not bragging- I did a big rain prayer to God yesterday, held up the corn stalks and thanked Him, then asked Him to PLEASE send rain so that things would still grow.

And I prayed for everyone- Texas too- probably so loud that the neighbors heard me.

Then...it became so very hot and smokey, I had to give up gardening and go inside- but I had FAITH, I always have FAITH-

And it RAINED!!

ok, returning ya'll to your regularly scheduled programming...
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Quoting VTG:
There was an amazing wind/hail storm a little north of Pensacola today. I'll try to upload some pictures later.


Saw a lot of reports on WEAR FB page about it. North of I10 out towards Pine Forest road. Lot of power outages still.
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Quoting southernbell72:
whats sounds weird. I like reading levi's tidbits on here and that is what he calls them .

Hmmmm, "an info shot ... injected directly into your skull" would have more pizazz, but that's been used already by the Tech Bytes show on KPFT, Houston. See http://www.geekradio.com/.

Peter Hughes--voted best radio sidekick for Houston in 2001--I think came up with that phrase.
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Been looking over some of Levi's tropical tidbits from Alex of last year, and it appears we'll see a very similar pattern in around 10 days from now, right when Alex was developing.

What a coincidence.
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Quoting southernbell72:
whats sounds weird. I like reading levi's tidbits on here and that is what he calls them .


I'm sure it was meant in jest. His Tropical Tidbits are quite popular among many of us. It's just been a weird night here. :)
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NASA Data Show Earthquakes May Quickly Boost Regional Volcanoes


The Merapi and Semeru volcanoes released plumes of ash and steam on June 8, 2006. The plumes (gray) with Merapi (left) and Semeru (right) are mixed with clouds (white). “Hot spots" (red outlines), where surface temperatures are much hotter than the surroundings, are also shown in this image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite. (Credit: NASA)

ScienceDaily (Apr. 12, 2007) — Scientists using NASA satellite data have found strong evidence that a major earthquake can lead to a nearly immediate increase in regional volcanic activity. The intensity of two ongoing volcanic eruptions on Indonesia's Java Island increased sharply three days following a powerful, 6.4-magnitude earthquake on the island in May 2006. The increased volcanic activity persisted for about nine days. ...

Link
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464. VTG
There was an amazing wind/hail storm a little north of Pensacola today. I'll try to upload some pictures later.
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Lordy, wind damage all over Mississippi this afternoon. There were two deaths from a falling tree. The power outages are unreal. So many of the trees in Ms were weakened by Katrina and with 60 mph winds,they fall like matchsticks. Winds at my home were 55mph, but thankfully we took out most of our damaged trees 2 years ago and didnt lose any today. Both my sons lost trees today and will be without power for a day or more. It was a bad storm with front line winds,...just wasnt expecting this...

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Quoting aquak9:
It rained here! We got ~1.2 inches!!!


braggart
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I gotta go to bed... got to be up by 4:30 a.m. 2morrow and not likin' it either way.... So much interesting and good stuff tonight. Thanks all for the input!

Good night!
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Quoting aquak9:
It rained here! We got ~1.2 inches!!!


proud of you!
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They should have just asked Grothar. I'm sure he still remembers how to speak it from his childhood years.

A dictionary of the extinct language of ancient Mesopotamia has been completed after 90 years of work.
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Large Earthquakes Trigger A Surge In Volcanic Eruptions

ScienceDaily (Jan. 12, 2009) -New evidence showing that very large earthquakes can trigger an increase in activity at nearby volcanoes has been uncovered by Oxford University scientists.. An analysis of records in southern Chile has shown that up to four times as many volcanic eruptions occur during the year following very large earthquakes than in other years. This -volcanic surge- can affect volcanoes up to at least 500 km away from an earthquake's epicentre.......

Link
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It rained here! We got ~1.2 inches!!!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
So potentially, at least, a theory could be posited whereby vulcanism acts as a thermostatic kind of mechanism which increases when world temperatures become too high or low to maintain life of a certain type on the planet.....

This could be a very interesting idea if spun the right way.....

Thanks 4 the input / idea, all.....


GAIA James Lovelock. I recommend it to everyone. It's a small book and I find it to be indispensable.
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Hmmm.... just took a look at recent imagery from Sat24, and it looks like there r now 2 small plumes instead of the one larger one.... weird....
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whats sounds weird. I like reading levi's tidbits on here and that is what he calls them .
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from CNN

(CNN) -- Fire forced the sudden closing of Carlsbad Caverns in New Mexico late Monday afternoon, the National Forest Service said.
Carlsbad Caverns National Park was closed and at least 200 visitors were evacuated from the caverns as the second-largest fire in Arizona history spread across the border to New Mexico, officials said. Crews were battling a 3,000-acre wildfire inside the park.
The park, located in the southeast corner of New Mexico, boasts a number of natural wonders, most famously its deep caverns.
The fire had consumed about 706 square miles earlier Monday in Arizona and was about 10% contained there, fire officials said.
Fire was reported at the park about 4:20 p.m. and led the park to close about an hour later.
"It got so bad they brought people up from underground," said Joel Arnwine, emergency manager for Eddy County, New Mexico.
It took park officials about an hour to evacuate 200 to 250 visitors from inside the caves, officials said.
Twenty-two structures in the park were threatened, including the visitors center. No injuries were immediately reported.
Six air tankers, nine fire engines and three hand crews were fighting the fire and officials were calling for assistance.
CNN's Dave Alsup contributed to this story.
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Oscillating 'Plug' of Magma Causes Tremors That Forecast Volcanic Eruptions


The UBC model illustrates how, as the center 'plug' of dense magma rises, it simply oscillates, or 'wags,' against the cushion of gas bubbles, generating tremors at a consistent range of frequencies observed around the world. (Credit: Mark Jellinek, UBC)

ScienceDaily (Feb. 24, 2011) - University of British Columbia geophysicists are offering a new explanation for seismic tremors accompanying volcanic eruptions that could advance forecasting of explosive eruptions such as recent events at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, Chaiten Volcano in Chile, and Mount St. Helens in Washington State.

All explosive volcanic eruptions are preceded and accompanied by tremors that last from hours to weeks, and a remarkably consistent range of tremor frequencies has been observed by scientists before and during volcanic eruptions around the world.

However, the underlying mechanism for these long-lived volcanic earthquakes has never been determined. Most proposed explanations are dependent upon the shape of the volcanic conduit -- the 'vent' or 'pipe' through which lava passes through -- or the gas content of the erupting magma, characteristics that vary greatly from volcano to volcano and are impossible to determine during or after volcanic activity.


Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, that's the kind of thing I'm thinking about. An interesting premise for an "alternate world" kind of sci-fi....


It actually makes sense, there should be simple way to study that in a controlled environment.
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Quoting southernbell72:
Did Levi do a tidbit for the day

That just sounds weird.
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448. beell
Quoting shoreacres:


Watch it. Some of us remember that chicken and that egg! ;-)


"shhh", said the rooster...
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Quoting southernbell72:
Did Levi do a tidbit for the day


yes
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Quoting southernbell72:
Did Levi do a tidbit for the day
think he did it early today.... he was working later.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats actually a good theory, wood cool the earth down by blocking the sun, but if the earth gets to a certain temperature the gas has more effect as a greenhouse gas? that's what you are saying?
Yeah, that's the kind of thing I'm thinking about. An interesting premise for an "alternate world" kind of sci-fi....
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Did Levi do a tidbit for the day
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Quoting shoreacres:


Watch it. Some of us remember that chicken and that egg! ;-)


Don't make fun off Grothar and press like that...
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.