Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.

Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.

Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)

Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.

Categories: Volcano

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 51 - 101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 — Blog Index

51. PcolaDan 4:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting barbamz: And BBC is following. facepalm http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13752433 But I stop it now. Have to leave til later. I thought if anyone would be using hard data, it would be BBC. Lazy reporting. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

52. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting ILwthrfan: Anyone else think the SPC needs to re-adjust the Meso discussion up to the north of Missouri? That complex of storms in Iowa is still chuggin to the east and would have to almost make a 90 degree south turn to stay west of the Mississippi. I know its riding that 850 mb warmfront to the southeast, but that front looks to be advancing to the east a little quicker than anticipated? At the direction it is headed, they will probably end up issuing another watch for northwestern Illinois, since the MD only covers WW #471. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25957

53. sunlinepr 4:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

55. Patrap 4:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
That is what keeps this place on top of any weather/Global story most the time. Most writers and journalists were snoozing Sunday Evening,,and are now playing catch up. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

56. tropicfreak 4:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting ncstorm: The new GFS run has picked up the storm again off the SC/NC coast this week.. Link Could be one to watch. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

57. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: This is the day 12 200 mb height forecast by the GFS. Notice the high over the Yucatan Peninsula, with great outflow channels ventilating the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. I'm learning from Levi :) Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25957

58. barbamz 4:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Reuters, reading the blogs, at least let us the choice: http://af.reuters.com/article/ethiopiaNews/idAFLD E75C1B820110613 bbl Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 25 Comments: 1896

59. FtMyersgal 4:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Why does there appear to be such confusion on which volcano has erupted? Nabro or Dubbi? Eritrea does not look that big on maps that 5 million people could report which volcano actually erupted.. Are the locations of these that remote? Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1054

60. ILwthrfan 4:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: At the direction it is headed, they will probably end up issuing another watch for northwestern Illinois, since the MD only covers WW #471. They have MCS #1206 up that is referencing to the storms in Iowa but they seem to be off with the WW 471, even though that watch was for the storms earlier they then re-revised it for future storms over Iowa..."AND BUT NEW ACTIVITY EXISTS OVER WRN IA WITH A SMALL MCS. MARGINAL ELEVATED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PROPAGATION ALONG SWRN FLANK." I guess we'll find out on thier next update. Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1094

61. PcolaDan 4:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
SO2 plume from Nabro Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

62. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25957

63. Patrap 4:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Nabro Volcano Climbing, Hiking & Mountaineering * Elevation: 7277 ft * Difficulty: * Best months to climb: * Convenient center: Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

64. PcolaDan 4:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting FtMyersgal: Why does there appear to be such confusion on which volcano has erupted? Nabro or Dubbi? Eritrea does not look that big on maps that 5 million people could report which volcano actually erupted.. Are the locations of these that remote? Very remote. the area in question is the Southern Red Sea Region of Eritrea. Population 203,618 - Surface Area 27,600 km² It is generally considered one of the most inhospitable areas on Earth, except along the coast. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

65. Patrap 4:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Part of the Afar Triangle, the Nabro Volcano is one of many volcanic caldera complexes in the northeasternmost part of the East African Rift valley region. The twin calderas likely formed about during an eruption of about 20 to 100 cubic kilometres consisting of ignimbrite, although the date of their formation is unknown. The subaerial volume of volcanic material within the Nabro Volcanic Range mantle plume is likely on the order of 550 km3. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

66. Patrap 4:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
www.sat24.com Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

68. sunlinepr 4:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is the day 12 200 mb height forecast by the GFS. Notice the high over the Yucatan Peninsula, with great outflow channels ventilating the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. I'm learning from Levi :) Thanks, checking out the model table.... Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

69. FtMyersgal 4:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: Very remote. the area in question is the Southern Red Sea Region of Eritrea. Population 203,618 - Surface Area 27,600 km² It is generally considered one of the most inhospitable areas on Earth, except along the coast. Thank you. I figured it had to be something like that. Looks the concensus is Nabro. Any idea how long before we know how serious this is our could become? Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1054

70. sunlinepr 4:52 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

71. Patrap 4:53 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Clinton cutting short Africa trip because of volcano eruption in Eritrea MATTHEW LEE Associated Press 8:38 a.m. AKDT, June 13, 2011 ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is cutting short a three-nation tour of Africa due to a volcano eruption that has created an ash cloud over parts of East Africa. Clinton was to have spent Monday night in Addis Ababa. But she will now leave the Ethiopian capital immediately because the ash cloud from the explosion in Eritrea is heading toward the city. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

72. Neapolitan 4:56 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Volcano Discovery says it's Nabro, which is undergoing a major (5 out of 5) effusive eruption. Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11303

73. Patrap 4:57 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Lotsa good imagery here from the Irish. Ash Cloud Spreads From Erupting Nabro Volcano In Eritrea By Mark Dunphy - Mon Jun 13, 4:58 pm Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

75. PcolaDan 5:02 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting FtMyersgal: Thank you. I figured it had to be something like that. Looks the concensus is Nabro. Any idea how long before we know how serious this is our could become? Really depends on how long it takes for the experts to figure out what is really happening. Because of the remote location, this could be a while. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

77. SLU 5:05 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
One year ago today ... The infamous invest 92L. Unnamed Tropical Storm? The final count last year should have maxed out at 20 IMO. Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 3052

78. PcolaDan 5:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: Volcano Discovery says it's Nabro, which is undergoing a major (5 out of 5) effusive eruption. Wonder what they are basing this on.I have yet to see a view that shows a major lava flow. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

79. Patrap 5:07 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Eumetsat image, 08:00UTC. Thanks to Eruptions commenter Shérine France for providing the link. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

81. Neapolitan 5:09 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: Wonder what they are basing this on.I have yet to see a view that shows a major magma flow. I'm guessing just historical precedent for other Rift volcanoes; they're almost always of the liquid type, aren't they? Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11303

82. WxTracker15 5:09 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Member Since: May 13, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 145

83. Patrap 5:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Still is spookie seeing one that last went "das BOOM" in the Holocene Period though Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

84. SLU 5:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
20 - 25kt wind surge accompanying the CATL wave. Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 3052

85. aquak9 5:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
post 80 full of trackers- please flag and delete Quoting Syntezon: Alfabob add very good map. IMG style="MAX-WIDTH: 501px" alt="" src="http://www2.clustrmaps.com/stats/maps-no_clus ters/www.magicznerodzenstwo.ownlog.com-thumb.jpg" width=1 height=1 jQuery1307985093395="10"> IMG style="MAX-WIDTH: 501px" alt="" src="http://www2.clustrmaps.com/stats/maps-no_clus ters/www.magicznerodzenstwo.ownlog.com-thumb.jpg" width=1 height=1 jQuery1307985093395="10"> Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

86. Patrap 5:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
"Intruder ALERT" Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

87. CybrTeddy 5:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting SLU: One year ago today ... The infamous invest 92L. Unnamed Tropical Storm? The final count last year should have maxed out at 20 IMO. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

88. FtMyersgal 5:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: I'm guessing just historical precedent for other Rift volcanoes; they're almost always of the liquid type, aren't they? The Articale stated its a stratovolcano like Vesuvus rather than a shield volcano Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1054

89. ncstorm 5:22 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting tropicfreak: Could be one to watch. Yeah..it had it a couple of days ago and dropped it and now it has it back..this thursday looks to be the timeline..we shall see Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8844

90. beell 5:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: I'm guessing just historical precedent for other Rift volcanoes; they're almost always of the liquid type, aren't they? From what I have read of stratovolcanoes, pyroclastic flows are common. And the lava is correction: More viscous. Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 126 Comments: 13069

91. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting alfabob: This wave could get interesting. It moving into an area of confluence aloft (sinking air), so development is not expected. That, and the axis lies to the NW of where you are seeing the convection. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25957

92. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting SLU: One year ago today ... The infamous invest 92L. Unnamed Tropical Storm? The final count last year should have maxed out at 20 IMO. I do not believe that 92L was a tropical storm. Looking at earlier ASCAT passes, the circulation was not well-defined. Winds weren't strong either. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25957

93. SLU 5:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I truly believe that 92L was at least a Tropical Depression. Yeah the NHC made a complete mess with this one. Similar to the way they were super conservative with the pre-Hurricane Tomas tropical wave in the same location which proved to be detrimental to the Antilles as they highly underestimated its maximum intensity as it approached the islands. Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 3052

94. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting SLU: Yeah the NHC made a complete mess with this one. Similar to the way they were super conservative with the pre-Hurricane Tomas tropical wave in the same location which proved to be detrimental to the Antilles as they highly underestimated its maximum intensity as it approached the islands. After looking at ASCAT, I changed my opinion. Now, I do agree about Tomas. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25957

95. SLU 5:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Underestimated pre-Tomas wave. Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 3052

96. PcolaDan 5:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: I'm guessing just historical precedent for other Rift volcanoes; they're almost always of the liquid type, aren't they? Correct, but it is still a supposition. As is the rating of a 5. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

97. jeffs713 5:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR? Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5729

98. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:32 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713: Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR? I don't know, it was one year ago though. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25957

99. SLU 5:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I do not believe that 92L was a tropical storm. Looking at earlier ASCAT passes, the circulation was not well-defined. Winds weren't strong either. That's a respectable looking circulation which appears to be closed if not a little broad. The interesting thing to note is that the following day when the system became less organised it passed just north of the buoy at 14n 46w which reported winds veering from NE - NW - SW - SE and 30 - 35kt sustained winds during the system's passage. It probably was at least a TD. Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 3052

100. RitaEvac 5:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713: Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR? That's how dead the tropics are Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8953

101. HouGalv08 5:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting jeffs713: Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR? Boredom? Carib. and GOM clear as a bell (and heating up more and more) waiting for the right "spark". Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 318

Viewing: 51 - 101

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters