Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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Quoting Patrap:



...its hard to find a mechanic in SF at 5am.


Especially a fiber cable specialist
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Levi32:
The long-range GFS obviously shouldn't be taken too seriously. However, it has proven to be a useful tool in the past when it is very consistent on a specific pattern in the long range. That kind of a hint can cue a forecaster into other things that may result in some kind of outcome. The goal is to find that outcome. The GFS is only one piece to the puzzle, and we very well may lose that piece if the model suddenly becomes inconsistent, which happens a lot.


What is important to follow is if other models join the GFS scenario in next runs. If that occurs, then we have game on!
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7.6% done hurricane season :)
0-0-0
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters

I thought there was something wrong with my net or the connection between Australia and USA.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters



Thank you, Dr. M. We appreciate the info.
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GFS still consistent with an area of high pressure ballooning on the Yucatan Peninsula. This is a very good set-up for TC's to develop, if all other pieces of the puzzle fit.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32254
Quoting aquak9:
Ike?

Approx 1.3 inches.

Good morning and good day, wherever/whenever you might be.

Isn't it a little too early to be seeing triple digits?

Good Evening.

Sodden state to get even wetter as rains continue
NSW is coping a battering from the elements, with rain and heavy winds expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

The NSW mid-north coast is coping the worst of it, with Red Rock's Bowling Club losing most of its roof in a wild storm this morning.

The Daily Examiner reports that residents up to half a kilometre away heard a large explosion as iron from the roof cut the town's power supply.

Grinspoon bassist Joe Hansen was one of the locals who heard the roof come off, which woke him up.

He said it sounded like a "super loud bang", which was over in just seconds.

"A twister or something like that had come through...it was pretty full on," he said.
A Corindi SES spokesperson said a large weather system and strong winds ripped through the town and caused damage at Corindi and nearby Red Rock where the local bowling club lost some of its roof.

The SES has received 330 requests for assistance, with 86 per cent of these now complete, since the event began on Monday.

Most of the calls have been for leaking roofs, roof damage and sandbagging requests as well as trees down.

The Central Coast and the Hunter have been the areas with the hardest hit, although emergency services workers will today shift their focus the mid north coast.

Rain is continuing to batter the mid-north coast today and is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

According to BOM up to 115mm(4.53in) of rain has fallen during the past 48 hours to 9 am today. However, the rain intensity has increased during the past nine hours, with 50mm falling during this period.

Further heavy rain is forecast for the next 6 to 12 hours.

This rain is expected to cause minor to moderate flooding along the Macleay River at Georges Creek, Bellbrook and Kempsey from this afternoon onwards.

The flood warning for Bellinger River has been upgraded to moderate with up to 100mm(3.94in) of rain forecasted for the next 12 hours.

Although rain has eased since 6am today, further heavy rain in the order of 50 to 100 millimetres is forecast for the next 12 hours.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) a broad low pressure system is deepening on the northern coast of New South Wales.

A line of continuous heavy showers and thunderstorms is tracking in from the east in the Coffs Harbour/Woolgoolga area focusing some of the highest falls in this area for the next few hours, but homes have not been inundated at this stage.

Over the next 24 hours, BOM said the heaviest rain would remain south of this low centre over the Mid North Coast, Hunter Valley and eastern parts of the Northern Tablelands.

Further south there are about 50 rural properties isolated west of Kempsey and Port Macquarie due to closure of country roads.

There is widespread flooding on the Pacific Highway between Grafton and Kempsey and the potential for flash flooding in northern parts of the state.

Since 9am yesterday Wooli Creek has received 170mm of rain, Bellingen 159mm(6.26in), Yamba 155mm(6.10in) and Coffs Harbour 123mm(4.84in).

There are flood warnings for a number of rivers including the Hastings Manning, Orara and Nambucca.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters


Thank you for letting us know what occured.
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Try this link- http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/earthquakes volcanos/ash-cloud-spreads-as-african-volcano-erup tion-eases/20074.html
Quoting Waltanater:
Does anyone from the committee know the status on the volcano on Naboo?

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Fiber cut, happens quiet often in the refineries. Causes pandomonium when people's internet and email go down.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters


Thanks Dr. Masters.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
It's so hot the wunderground site was shut down for 2 hrs



...its hard to find a mechanic in SF at 5am.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
The long-range GFS obviously shouldn't be taken too seriously. However, it has proven to be a useful tool in the past when it is very consistent on a specific pattern in the long range. That kind of a hint can cue a forecaster into other things that may result in some kind of outcome. The goal is to find that outcome. The GFS is only one piece to the puzzle, and we very well may lose that piece if the model suddenly becomes inconsistent, which happens a lot.
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530. JeffMasters (Admin)
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters
Ooooops....
WU
musta been way too far underground for a couple of hours...

...or perhaps
the WU Fiber wasn't far enough underground
heh heh
see below
||
\/
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Good morning! If you haven't seen it, check out this video:
The Hurricanes Of 2004 From An Emergency Management Perspective
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That was a big blog hole.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Better chances for rain on the East side of the peninsula today... waiting for the magic.


I got rain yesterday, the drops almost covered the hoods on the vehicles.
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It's so hot the wunderground site was shut down for 2 hrs
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Grothar:
Well, I finally got on. Who else made it through??



Not me. hehehe

G'morning.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
me
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Sites back up
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
According to WFTV there are 30 different wildfires burning in my county. (Volusia)
Reposting this because WUGround is not behaving like its normal site this morning.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
They should have just asked Grothar. I'm sure he still remembers how to speak it from his childhood years.

A dictionary of the extinct language of ancient Mesopotamia has been completed after 90 years of work.



They could have had my copy and saved all that work.
Back then we used to call those people,(संस्कृतम्. Served then right.
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Looking forward to every GFS dissection on that WAVE
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
517. IKE
Testing.
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Morning All

Good drenching in Jupiter yesterday :-)

This from the Miami NWS

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN TURN, THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME EAST NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
,
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND PERHAPS
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS.
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Woke up to the smell of smoke outside this morning, emcf.
VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. -- Fire crews are monitoring 30 different wildfires burning in Volusia County. WFTV learned that residents are going to be dealing with all of these fires for months to come.

No matter how many tractors or thousands of gallons of water, officials said it could be months before thick smoke and flames go away for good.

"This is a mother nature thing that is going to take us inches of rain to get us out of this,” said an official....


I hear someone fiddling.
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Well, I finally got on. Who else made it through??
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Does anyone from the committee know the status on the volcano on Naboo?
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Quoting emcf30:
Scott declares wildfire, drought emergency in Fla.

The Associated Press

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in Florida due to wildfires and drought conditions.

The declaration Monday puts the state Division of Emergency Management in charge of the situation.

That includes deploying personnel and resources of the Florida National Guard and other state and local government agencies.

The order notes extreme to exceptional drought conditions are expanding across southeastern and north Florida. They are expected to worsen in the new few weeks.

More than 300 active wildfires were burning on about 115,583 acres across the state Monday.

A small brush fire in Brevard County that was contained from last week flared up on Monday and jumped the fire lines. The fire moved into Volusia County and quickly consumed over 1200 acres burning at-least 10 homes and 38 hunting camps. The fire is 0% contained.

too late thankfully its starting to rain no way does this compare with the big fire yr that yr it did not rain to july its been beautiful here in e. fl. this yr yesterday got to a high about 89 heard it reached 100f in orlando
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509. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.

oh great, that'll give the kids something to argue about this weekend.
lol
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Scott declares wildfire, drought emergency in Fla.

The Associated Press

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in Florida due to wildfires and drought conditions.

The declaration Monday puts the state Division of Emergency Management in charge of the situation.

That includes deploying personnel and resources of the Florida National Guard and other state and local government agencies.

The order notes extreme to exceptional drought conditions are expanding across southeastern and north Florida. They are expected to worsen in the new few weeks.

More than 300 active wildfires were burning on about 115,583 acres across the state Monday.

A small brush fire in Brevard County that was contained from last week flared up on Monday and jumped the fire lines. The fire moved into Volusia County and quickly consumed over 1200 acres burning at-least 10 homes and 38 hunting camps. The fire is 0% contained.

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Morning ya'll.... the Twaves that r still not getting props in the WAtl and the CAR r finding more than acceptable conditions in the EPac.... will be interesting to see if a second June EPac storm will spin up to a major....



What's left of the Twave my local wxman was watching late last week....
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506. MahFL
Quoting aquak9:
yeah-boy...figured ya might've read back and seen the media announcement.

Ouch on your weather, major ouch. We're only a coupla degrees off that here, and our little icon for today is SMOKE.


Good morning Aqua, I went tubing yesterday at Ichetucknee Springs, was good fun. On the rain front we had about .75 inches.
Smoke is as you say forcast for today. Last night before the storms the smell of smoke was the highest I've experienced this year.

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Good morning to all. A Tropical wave is moving thru the Eastern Caribbean today and it will likely cause the all time June record of rainfall in San Juan to be broken.

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2011 IS JUST 0.40 INCH(ES) AWAY FROM BECOMING THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. THE 10.56 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JUNE ON RECORD. JUNE 1965 WAS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD
WITH A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 10.96 INCHES.
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A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.

oh great, that'll give the kids something to argue about this weekend.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26042
502. IKE
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ALONG 27N ANCHORED BY 1017 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
26.5N87W WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 25N WED THEN WILL MOVE BACK N TO
ALONG 28N BY FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.
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501. IKE
I got .06 inches of rain yesterday.

Looks like another east-PAC system @ 114 hours on the 6Z GFS....


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yeah-boy...figured ya might've read back and seen the media announcement.

Ouch on your weather, major ouch. We're only a coupla degrees off that here, and our little icon for today is SMOKE.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26042
499. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Ike?

Approx 1.3 inches.

Good morning and good day, wherever/whenever you might be.

Isn't it a little too early to be seeing triple digits?
1.3 inches...congrats to you!
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Ike?

Approx 1.3 inches.

Good morning and good day, wherever/whenever you might be.

Isn't it a little too early to be seeing triple digits?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26042
497. IKE
Key West....

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING A
MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE KEYS ON
FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TYPE OF REGIME IS TYPICALLY
NOT A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR RAINFALL IN THE
KEYS...AND WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THE WEEKEND...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO BRING A TROPICAL WAVE (APPARENTLY THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN) AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WOULD LIKELY
BE A WETTER REGIME FOR THE KEYS...AND THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES OF THE
MEX MOS HAVE CRANKED OUT 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE EXTREME DIFFICULTY WE HAVE HAD IN GETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE KEYS DURING OUR DROUGHT OF THE PAST FEW MONTHS...WILL
NOT RAISE POPS AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL NUDGE UP TO LOW CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
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496. IKE
Warm weather anyone?

Today: Sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Heat index values as high as 107. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 74. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: A
20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny and
hot, with a high near 102. Heat index values as high as 109. West
northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: A
20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly
cloudy, with a low around 76. West southwest wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: A
30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny
and hot, with a high near 99. West southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

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Quoting alfabob:

There are positive and negative feedbacks which can influence the direction of climate change, but there is no ideal climate. We live on a large rock floating through space, and we adapt to what mother nature throws at us; things can become very hostile under the right circumstances.

The only connection I could see between vulcanism and a warmer climate is something I am currently researching. It has to do with the excess heat modifying the gravitational potential; examples are polar ice, overall water temperature (density and spatial distribution) and about 0.01%-0.1% due to the atmospheric temperature/water vapor concentration. The Earth is composed of a bunch of plates mashing into each other, some regions on these plates are very sensitive. So when something like the Arctic loses 10000 cubic km of ice over 30 years, or temperatures slowly begin increasing over time; there is bound to be more activity.
agreed. Nice post
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


True, but there is absolutely no correlation between air temperatures and volcano eruptions.
there may not be any correlation, but that could just be due to a lack of sufficient, accurate, data.

(Keep in mind I am talking about true climate extremes from here on out (say a good 20c warmer or cooler than the present global average))

Two things would change (amongst a sea of the thousands other this which would change) if Earth experienced extreme global warming/cooling, first, the density of the earth's crust, and second, the pressure pushing down on earth's crust as a result of the presence of significant amounts of ice or lack thereof.

These two variables have a big impact on plate activity, as well as earthquakes and volcanoes.

So just a reminder, don't be so quick to say a dramatically altered climate would have no affect on volcanic activity.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Its pretty clear I think, a 5.0m earthquake hit further south at 19:20utc causing the stress that caused the 5.7m earthquake that hit at 21:03utc and allowing the volcano to blow.


OR built up pressure from gases and magma trying to push through the crust caused an earthquake, which may have made the cracks in the crust weaker, ultimately allowing the volcano to go off.

Both ideas presented in your post and my post may be correct, so I wouldn't be so quick to settle on one.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.