Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 93 - 43

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

93. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I truly believe that 92L was at least a Tropical Depression.


Yeah the NHC made a complete mess with this one. Similar to the way they were super conservative with the pre-Hurricane Tomas tropical wave in the same location which proved to be detrimental to the Antilles as they highly underestimated its maximum intensity as it approached the islands.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
One year ago today ...

The infamous invest 92L. Unnamed Tropical Storm?

The final count last year should have maxed out at 20 IMO.



I do not believe that 92L was a tropical storm. Looking at earlier ASCAT passes, the circulation was not well-defined. Winds weren't strong either.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting alfabob:
This wave could get interesting.


It moving into an area of confluence aloft (sinking air), so development is not expected. That, and the axis lies to the NW of where you are seeing the convection.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm guessing just historical precedent for other Rift volcanoes; they're almost always of the liquid type, aren't they?


From what I have read of stratovolcanoes, pyroclastic flows are common. And the lava is correction: More viscous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Could be one to watch.


Yeah..it had it a couple of days ago and dropped it and now it has it back..this thursday looks to be the timeline..we shall see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm guessing just historical precedent for other Rift volcanoes; they're almost always of the liquid type, aren't they?

The Articale stated its a stratovolcano like Vesuvus rather than a shield volcano
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
One year ago today ...

The infamous invest 92L. Unnamed Tropical Storm?

The final count last year should have maxed out at 20 IMO.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Intruder ALERT"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
post 80 full of trackers- please flag and delete

Quoting Syntezon:
Alfabob add very good map.


IMG style="MAX-WIDTH: 501px" alt="" src="http://www2.clustrmaps.com/stats/maps-no_clus ters/www.magicznerodzenstwo.ownlog.com-thumb.jpg" width=1 height=1 jQuery1307985093395="10">



IMG style="MAX-WIDTH: 501px" alt="" src="http://www2.clustrmaps.com/stats/maps-no_clus ters/www.magicznerodzenstwo.ownlog.com-thumb.jpg" width=1 height=1 jQuery1307985093395="10">



Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26066
84. SLU
20 - 25kt wind surge accompanying the CATL wave.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still is spookie seeing one that last went "das BOOM" in the Holocene Period though
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Wonder what they are basing this on.I have yet to see a view that shows a major magma flow.

I'm guessing just historical precedent for other Rift volcanoes; they're almost always of the liquid type, aren't they?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Eumetsat image, 08:00UTC. Thanks to Eruptions commenter Shérine France for providing the link.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Neapolitan:
Volcano Discovery says it's Nabro, which is undergoing a major (5 out of 5) effusive eruption.


Wonder what they are basing this on.I have yet to see a view that shows a major lava flow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77. SLU
One year ago today ...

The infamous invest 92L. Unnamed Tropical Storm?

The final count last year should have maxed out at 20 IMO.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FtMyersgal:

Thank you. I figured it had to be something like that. Looks the concensus is Nabro. Any idea how long before we know how serious this is our could become?


Really depends on how long it takes for the experts to figure out what is really happening. Because of the remote location, this could be a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lotsa good imagery here from the Irish.

Ash Cloud Spreads From Erupting Nabro Volcano In Eritrea



By Mark Dunphy - Mon Jun 13, 4:58 pm

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Volcano Discovery says it's Nabro, which is undergoing a major (5 out of 5) effusive eruption.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Clinton cutting short Africa trip because of volcano eruption in Eritrea

MATTHEW LEE Associated Press

8:38 a.m. AKDT, June 13, 2011
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is cutting short a three-nation tour of Africa due to a volcano eruption that has created an ash cloud over parts of East Africa.

Clinton was to have spent Monday night in Addis Ababa. But she will now leave the Ethiopian capital immediately because the ash cloud from the explosion in Eritrea is heading toward the city.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Very remote. the area in question is the Southern Red Sea Region of Eritrea. Population 203,618 - Surface Area 27,600 km²

It is generally considered one of the most inhospitable areas on Earth, except along the coast.

Thank you. I figured it had to be something like that. Looks the concensus is Nabro. Any idea how long before we know how serious this is our could become?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


This is the day 12 200 mb height forecast by the GFS. Notice the high over the Yucatan Peninsula, with great outflow channels ventilating the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.



I'm learning from Levi :)


Thanks, checking out the model table....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
www.sat24.com


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Why does there appear to be such confusion on which volcano has erupted? Nabro or Dubbi? Eritrea does not look that big on maps that 5 million people could report which volcano actually erupted.. Are the locations of these that remote?


Very remote. the area in question is the Southern Red Sea Region of Eritrea. Population 203,618 - Surface Area 27,600 km²

It is generally considered one of the most inhospitable areas on Earth, except along the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Nabro Volcano Climbing, Hiking & Mountaineering


* Elevation: 7277 ft
* Difficulty:
* Best months to climb:
* Convenient center:

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
SO2 plume from Nabro

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


At the direction it is headed, they will probably end up issuing another watch for northwestern Illinois, since the MD only covers WW #471.


They have MCS #1206 up that is referencing to the storms in Iowa but they seem to be off with the WW 471, even though that watch was for the storms earlier they then re-revised it for future storms over Iowa..."AND BUT NEW ACTIVITY EXISTS OVER WRN IA WITH A SMALL MCS. MARGINAL ELEVATED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PROPAGATION ALONG SWRN FLANK."

I guess we'll find out on thier next update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why does there appear to be such confusion on which volcano has erupted? Nabro or Dubbi? Eritrea does not look that big on maps that 5 million people could report which volcano actually erupted.. Are the locations of these that remote?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reuters, reading the blogs, at least let us the choice:
http://af.reuters.com/article/ethiopiaNews/idAFLD E75C1B820110613
bbl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


This is the day 12 200 mb height forecast by the GFS. Notice the high over the Yucatan Peninsula, with great outflow channels ventilating the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.



I'm learning from Levi :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting ncstorm:
The new GFS run has picked up the storm again off the SC/NC coast this week..

Link


Could be one to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That is what keeps this place on top of any weather/Global story most the time.


Most writers and journalists were snoozing Sunday Evening,,and are now playing catch up.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyone else think the SPC needs to re-adjust the Meso discussion up to the north of Missouri? That complex of storms in Iowa is still chuggin to the east and would have to almost make a 90 degree south turn to stay west of the Mississippi. I know its riding that 850 mb warmfront to the southeast, but that front looks to be advancing to the east a little quicker than anticipated?


At the direction it is headed, they will probably end up issuing another watch for northwestern Illinois, since the MD only covers WW #471.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting barbamz:
And BBC is following. *facepalm*
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13752433
But I stop it now. Have to leave til later.

I thought if anyone would be using hard data, it would be BBC. Lazy reporting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
The new GFS run has picked up the storm again off the SC/NC coast this week..

Link


Been showing that the past several runs, may need to watch it.

What I am much more concerned about is the pattern 10-15 days from now in primarily the Western Caribbean. GFS has been advertising a spectacular set-up for Arlene to develop, and it will need to be watched very closely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Anyone else think the SPC needs to re-adjust the Meso discussion up to the north of Missouri? That complex of storms in Iowa is still chuggin to the east and would have to almost make a 90 degree south turn to stay west of the Mississippi. I know its riding that 850 mb warmfront to the southeast, but that front looks to be advancing to the east a little quicker than anticipated?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And BBC is following. *facepalm*
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13752433
But I stop it now. Have to leave til later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From last blog:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Link says they know the volcano that erupted.
Link


It is really a moot point, which one it is. This whole region (Afar Triangle) is one big active area, the continuation of the Red Sea and part of the Great Rift, where Africa is breaking apart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:



My subjective impression is that Australia has had more extreme droughts and floods in the past decade, mostly coinciding with ENSO events.

Could be Australia is the meteorological 'coal mine canary', showing us what much of the rest of the world can expect as climate change progresses.
We are getting back into a more normal climate here, It was normal to have a cold wet start to winter and a cold dry finish to winter. Our summer was abnormally wet on the east coast and on the west coast it was abnormally dry.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting yonzabam:



My subjective impression is that Australia has had more extreme droughts and floods in the past decade, mostly coinciding with ENSO events.

Could be Australia is the meteorological 'coal mine canary', showing us what much of the rest of the world can expect as climate change progresses.


Sad thing is the canary died a time long ago and we're still chuggin away in the mines.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As I've said above: Now The Washington Post got the News from AP with the wrong volcano (Dubbi instead of Nabro). Very interesting to watch how the international news production is working - and with much delay and error!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/airlin es-watching-ash-cloud-in-east-africa-after-volcano -erupts-in-tiny-country-of-eritrea/2011/06/13/AGbh p8SH_story.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 93 - 43

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
63 °F
Scattered Clouds