Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

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Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Horseshoe 2 fire smoke (rixx)
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke

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143. Jax82
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Well that kinda sucks.


You should tell us what you really think.
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looks to be extratropical if its develop off the NC coast on thursday..

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3:30 AM MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WARRANTS FEW CHANGES THIS
MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS TRENDS REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS REMAIN HIGHEST
THURSDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL
CYCLES NOW.
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125. jeffs713 6:08 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
Actually, there is a new volcano erupting on the other side of the globe spewing ash all over insignificant Middle East countries! Supposedly it is the "talk of the town!"
People still live in those countries, ya know. Even if they aren't named Walt, or are part of the US, they still exist. Also, major eruptions can have a significant impact upon the climate - especially when near the equator.

If us talking about a major volcanic eruption bothers you... DONT READ THE BLOG.

OH IM SORRY! I was just answering her question. She wanted to know what else was new. Since she was talking about a WEAK LOW PRESSURE system on this blog, I thought I would fill her in on the more IMPORTANT discussion at hand. I never really said that it bothered me, JEFF.
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Quoting Hurrykane:


Pottery, you want that in check, money order, or cash?

Trying to get rid of me, are you?? LOL
But cash would be best, thanks!

How you doing, Hurry?
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Quoting Bitmap7:


There is a volcano blog?

Just another one of my Assumptions...

I would be surprised if there isnt one though.
Have you looked? I have not.
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If us talking about a major volcanic eruption bothers you... DONT READ THE BLOG.

amen.
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Heat index at 104 here in west palm, no clouds in sight, about a 40% chance of rain everyday which is complete rubbish in response to random rain showers that form during the summer in florida.
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Quoting pottery:

I did not think that there was anywhere on Earth that you could be without SOME kind of connectivity...

just shows what I know.


I guess you still have satellite phones
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Quoting Bitmap7:
From another blog:
Jip, now it starts affecting airliners; they HAVE to take notice.

Nabro does not have a 'history'
Nabro is a lot more serious threatening than Dubbi
Nabro and Dubbi are only 23 km apart; easy to confuse.
Lastly: It just might be neither - just maybe a new vent opened up kind of between the two though still closer to Nabro.

I noticed on sat photos joined into video there seems to be multiple explosive eruptions during past 12 hours. Now IR on SAT24 shows plume now blowing South West; also seems to originate a little further East than this morning.
On that latest sat it would rather look like Dubbi.
Kind of like pulses. Somebody have access to seismograph or acoustics that could reflect these pulses?

Guess we will have to wait for Ground troops to reach and report. Problem - they will need to get back to city before they can make reports; there in the boendoes are no communication towers like mobile phones.

Now I am going to sleep!


Nabro has a fairly sizeable crater, and geological evidence of fissuring, so it could be from a fissure, or somewhere else within the crater. Also, as a note, the LAST eruption of Nabro, according to geologic evidence, was 20-100km3... which is VEI6 or VEI7 territory.

VEI scale info

Edit: VEI scale
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LOL, I tell my kids this all the time... We have enough new stuff to fight about... Don't bring up last year's fight so we can fight again...

I was briefly confused by the graphical TWO with 60% development LOL.
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Quoting Bitmap7:
From another blog:
Jip, now it starts affecting airliners; they HAVE to take notice.

Nabro does not have a 'history'
Nabro is a lot more serious threatening than Dubbi
Nabro and Dubbi are only 23 km apart; easy to confuse.
Lastly: It just might be neither - just maybe a new vent opened up kind of between the two though still closer to Nabro.

I noticed on sat photos joined into video there seems to be multiple explosive eruptions during past 12 hours. Now IR on SAT24 shows plume now blowing South West; also seems to originate a little further East than this morning.
On that latest sat it would rather look like Dubbi.
Kind of like pulses. Somebody have access to seismograph or acoustics that could reflect these pulses?

Guess we will have to wait for Ground troops to reach and report. Problem - they will need to get back to city before they can make reports; there in the boendoes are no communication towers like mobile phones.

Now I am going to sleep!

I did not think that there was anywhere on Earth that you could be without SOME kind of connectivity...

just shows what I know.
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Quoting jeffs713:

People still live in those countries, ya know. Even if they aren't named Walt, or are part of the US, they still exist. Also, major eruptions can have a significant impact upon the climate - especially when near the equator.

If us talking about a major volcanic eruption bothers you... DONT READ THE BLOG.


+1000
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Quoting Chicklit:
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SE FROM THE CAROLINAS TUE PUSHING ACROSS THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI.

So what else is new?

Calling Presslord...
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Quoting Waltanater:
Actually, there is a new volcano erupting on the other side of the globe spewing ash all over insignificant Middle East countries! Supposedly it is the "talk of the town!"

People still live in those countries, ya know. Even if they aren't named Walt, or are part of the US, they still exist. Also, major eruptions can have a significant impact upon the climate - especially when near the equator.

If us talking about a major volcanic eruption bothers you... DONT READ THE BLOG.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Season is a Complete Bust!
I want my money back...

may as well head over to the Volcan Blog where all the action is!

:):))


There is a volcano blog?
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From another blog:
Jip, now it starts affecting airliners; they HAVE to take notice.

Nabro does not have a 'history'
Nabro is a lot more serious threatening than Dubbi
Nabro and Dubbi are only 23 km apart; easy to confuse.
Lastly: It just might be neither - just maybe a new vent opened up kind of between the two though still closer to Nabro.

I noticed on sat photos joined into video there seems to be multiple explosive eruptions during past 12 hours. Now IR on SAT24 shows plume now blowing South West; also seems to originate a little further East than this morning.
On that latest sat it would rather look like Dubbi.
Kind of like pulses. Somebody have access to seismograph or acoustics that could reflect these pulses?

Guess we will have to wait for Ground troops to reach and report. Problem - they will need to get back to city before they can make reports; there in the boendoes are no communication towers like mobile phones.

Now I am going to sleep!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Well that kinda sucks.

Season is a Complete Bust!
I want my money back...

may as well head over to the Volcan Blog where all the action is!

:):))
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LEACHVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARAWAY...
KEISER...LEACHVILLE...LEPANTO...MANILA...MONETTE AND OSCEOLA.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SE FROM THE CAROLINAS TUE PUSHING ACROSS THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI.

So what else is new?

Actually, there is a new volcano erupting on the other side of the globe spewing ash all over insignificant Middle East countries! Supposedly it is the "talk of the town!"
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It moving into an area of confluence aloft (sinking air), so development is not expected. That, and the axis lies to the NW of where you are seeing the convection.


Well that kinda sucks.
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A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SE FROM THE CAROLINAS TUE PUSHING ACROSS THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI.

So what else is new?

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Hi Guys,
(from the 2 p.m. Discussion)
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N45W TO 4N48W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE AND AT THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH THE PLACEMENT BASED ON CONSISTENCY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N56W TO 9N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA ALONG 85W MOVING W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

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post 114

hahahahaha!

:)
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Quoting NRAamy:
Quoting jeffs713:
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?


( where's that smiley face graphic, beating the dead horse, when we need it? )



I think it's covered with ash from the volcanic eruption.
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Quoting jeffs713:
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?


( where's that smiley face graphic, beating the dead horse, when we need it? )

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Special Statement

Statement as of 1:17 PM EDT on June 13, 2011

... Smoke will continue to impact the Jacksonville Metro area...

Smoke from the wildfires across portions of Charlton County
Georgia will continue to spread southeastward across the
Jacksonville Metro area... reducing visibility to 1 mile in
areas.

The smoke will continue to affect the Jacksonville Metro area
tonight and Tuesday.

People should limit their exposure to the smoke... especially
those with respiratory ailments... the elderly... and the very
Young.

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Quoting caribbeantracker01:
boss its just reference take it easy besides its not a dead horse one thing is interesting is that where the last storm formed or atleast the steering
Talking about an invest that didn't become a tropical storm a YEAR ago (marking it like an anniversary) is a bit "beating a dead horse".

2011 and 2010 have vastly different environments for storm formation, so there isn't even a good basis for comparison between 2010 92L and anything so far this year.
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Quoting 7544:
we need a invest

we need a invest !


shoot I would take a blob at this point..
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Here's the latest image of the sun...

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_ igr/1024/latest.html
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108. 7544
we need a invest

we need a invest !
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Wonder what they are basing this on.I have yet to see a view that shows a major lava flow.


I believe it's getting capped which could make for even a larger explosion soon.

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Good afternoon, all.
@ 11n 61w..
Temp is currently 94.5F under blue sky with easterly breezes keeping things bearable.
Nice wave is approaching here and will most likely bring heavy rains tomorrow and beyond.

Was up last night when the Ethiopia volcano got going.
I have to say that having tried to get info from everywhere else, the WUNDERGROUND was the ONLY place where people were on the ball.

Kudos again !
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105. Jax82
You'd think a volcano erupted in Jax today, so tired of the smoke.

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Quoting jeffs713:
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?
boss its just reference take it easy besides its not a dead horse one thing is interesting is that where the last storm formed or atleast the steering
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103. beell
click to open graphic in new window
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Quoting jeffs713:
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?
Boredom? Carib. and GOM clear as a bell (and heating up more and more) waiting for the right "spark".
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Quoting jeffs713:
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?


That's how dead the tropics are
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99. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I do not believe that 92L was a tropical storm. Looking at earlier ASCAT passes, the circulation was not well-defined. Winds weren't strong either.



That's a respectable looking circulation which appears to be closed if not a little broad.

The interesting thing to note is that the following day when the system became less organised it passed just north of the buoy at 14n 46w which reported winds veering from NE - NW - SW - SE and 30 - 35kt sustained winds during the system's passage.

It probably was at least a TD.
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Quoting jeffs713:
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?


I don't know, it was one year ago though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31995
Hold on a sec... Why are we STILL beating a dead horse from LAST YEAR?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm guessing just historical precedent for other Rift volcanoes; they're almost always of the liquid type, aren't they?


Correct, but it is still a supposition. As is the rating of a 5.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
95. SLU
Underestimated pre-Tomas wave.

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Quoting SLU:


Yeah the NHC made a complete mess with this one. Similar to the way they were super conservative with the pre-Hurricane Tomas tropical wave in the same location which proved to be detrimental to the Antilles as they highly underestimated its maximum intensity as it approached the islands.



After looking at ASCAT, I changed my opinion.

Now, I do agree about Tomas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31995
93. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I truly believe that 92L was at least a Tropical Depression.


Yeah the NHC made a complete mess with this one. Similar to the way they were super conservative with the pre-Hurricane Tomas tropical wave in the same location which proved to be detrimental to the Antilles as they highly underestimated its maximum intensity as it approached the islands.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.