Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Oscillating 'Plug' of Magma Causes Tremors That Forecast Volcanic Eruptions


The UBC model illustrates how, as the center 'plug' of dense magma rises, it simply oscillates, or 'wags,' against the cushion of gas bubbles, generating tremors at a consistent range of frequencies observed around the world. (Credit: Mark Jellinek, UBC)

ScienceDaily (Feb. 24, 2011) - University of British Columbia geophysicists are offering a new explanation for seismic tremors accompanying volcanic eruptions that could advance forecasting of explosive eruptions such as recent events at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, Chaiten Volcano in Chile, and Mount St. Helens in Washington State.

All explosive volcanic eruptions are preceded and accompanied by tremors that last from hours to weeks, and a remarkably consistent range of tremor frequencies has been observed by scientists before and during volcanic eruptions around the world.

However, the underlying mechanism for these long-lived volcanic earthquakes has never been determined. Most proposed explanations are dependent upon the shape of the volcanic conduit -- the 'vent' or 'pipe' through which lava passes through -- or the gas content of the erupting magma, characteristics that vary greatly from volcano to volcano and are impossible to determine during or after volcanic activity.


Link

from CNN

(CNN) -- Fire forced the sudden closing of Carlsbad Caverns in New Mexico late Monday afternoon, the National Forest Service said.
Carlsbad Caverns National Park was closed and at least 200 visitors were evacuated from the caverns as the second-largest fire in Arizona history spread across the border to New Mexico, officials said. Crews were battling a 3,000-acre wildfire inside the park.
The park, located in the southeast corner of New Mexico, boasts a number of natural wonders, most famously its deep caverns.
The fire had consumed about 706 square miles earlier Monday in Arizona and was about 10% contained there, fire officials said.
Fire was reported at the park about 4:20 p.m. and led the park to close about an hour later.
"It got so bad they brought people up from underground," said Joel Arnwine, emergency manager for Eddy County, New Mexico.
It took park officials about an hour to evacuate 200 to 250 visitors from inside the caves, officials said.
Twenty-two structures in the park were threatened, including the visitors center. No injuries were immediately reported.
Six air tankers, nine fire engines and three hand crews were fighting the fire and officials were calling for assistance.
CNN's Dave Alsup contributed to this story.

whats sounds weird. I like reading levi's tidbits on here and that is what he calls them .

Hmmm.... just took a look at recent imagery from Sat24, and it looks like there r now 2 small plumes instead of the one larger one.... weird....

Quoting BahaHurican:
So potentially, at least, a theory could be posited whereby vulcanism acts as a thermostatic kind of mechanism which increases when world temperatures become too high or low to maintain life of a certain type on the planet.....

This could be a very interesting idea if spun the right way.....

Thanks 4 the input / idea, all.....

GAIA James Lovelock. I recommend it to everyone. It's a small book and I find it to be indispensable.

It rained here! We got ~1.2 inches!!!

Large Earthquakes Trigger A Surge In Volcanic Eruptions

ScienceDaily (Jan. 12, 2009) -New evidence showing that very large earthquakes can trigger an increase in activity at nearby volcanoes has been uncovered by Oxford University scientists.. An analysis of records in southern Chile has shown that up to four times as many volcanic eruptions occur during the year following very large earthquakes than in other years. This -volcanic surge- can affect volcanoes up to at least 500 km away from an earthquake's epicentre.......

Link

They should have just asked Grothar. I'm sure he still remembers how to speak it from his childhood years.

A dictionary of the extinct language of ancient Mesopotamia has been completed after 90 years of work.

Quoting aquak9:
It rained here! We got ~1.2 inches!!!

proud of you!

I gotta go to bed... got to be up by 4:30 a.m. 2morrow and not likin' it either way.... So much interesting and good stuff tonight. Thanks all for the input!

Good night!

Quoting aquak9:
It rained here! We got ~1.2 inches!!!

braggart

Lordy, wind damage all over Mississippi this afternoon. There were two deaths from a falling tree. The power outages are unreal. So many of the trees in Ms were weakened by Katrina and with 60 mph winds,they fall like matchsticks. Winds at my home were 55mph, but thankfully we took out most of our damaged trees 2 years ago and didnt lose any today. Both my sons lost trees today and will be without power for a day or more. It was a bad storm with front line winds,...just wasnt expecting this...

There was an amazing wind/hail storm a little north of Pensacola today. I'll try to upload some pictures later.

NASA Data Show Earthquakes May Quickly Boost Regional Volcanoes


The Merapi and Semeru volcanoes released plumes of ash and steam on June 8, 2006. The plumes (gray) with Merapi (left) and Semeru (right) are mixed with clouds (white). “Hot spots" (red outlines), where surface temperatures are much hotter than the surroundings, are also shown in this image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite. (Credit: NASA)

ScienceDaily (Apr. 12, 2007) — Scientists using NASA satellite data have found strong evidence that a major earthquake can lead to a nearly immediate increase in regional volcanic activity. The intensity of two ongoing volcanic eruptions on Indonesia's Java Island increased sharply three days following a powerful, 6.4-magnitude earthquake on the island in May 2006. The increased volcanic activity persisted for about nine days. ...

Link

Quoting southernbell72:
whats sounds weird. I like reading levi's tidbits on here and that is what he calls them .

I'm sure it was meant in jest. His Tropical Tidbits are quite popular among many of us. It's just been a weird night here. :)

Been looking over some of Levi's tropical tidbits from Alex of last year, and it appears we'll see a very similar pattern in around 10 days from now, right when Alex was developing.

What a coincidence.

Quoting southernbell72:
whats sounds weird. I like reading levi's tidbits on here and that is what he calls them .

Hmmmm, "an info shot ... injected directly into your skull" would have more pizazz, but that's been used already by the Tech Bytes show on KPFT, Houston. See http://www.geekradio.com/.

Peter Hughes--voted best radio sidekick for Houston in 2001--I think came up with that phrase.

Quoting VTG:
There was an amazing wind/hail storm a little north of Pensacola today. I'll try to upload some pictures later.

Saw a lot of reports on WEAR FB page about it. North of I10 out towards Pine Forest road. Lot of power outages still.

Thank you all and I am not bragging- I did a big rain prayer to God yesterday, held up the corn stalks and thanked Him, then asked Him to PLEASE send rain so that things would still grow.

And I prayed for everyone- Texas too- probably so loud that the neighbors heard me.

Then...it became so very hot and smokey, I had to give up gardening and go inside- but I had FAITH, I always have FAITH-

And it RAINED!!

ok, returning ya'll to your regularly scheduled programming...

Quoting aquak9:
Thank you all and I am not bragging- I did a big rain prayer to God yesterday, held up the corn stalks and thanked Him, then asked Him to PLEASE send rain so that things would still grow.

And I prayed for everyone- Texas too- probably so loud that the neighbors heard me.

Then...it became so very hot and smokey, I had to give up gardening and go inside- but I had FAITH, I always have FAITH-

And it RAINED!!

ok, returning ya'll to your regularly scheduled programming...

Ohhh what good news....I am so glad :)

We have a new Tropical Wave in the surface charts at 00z around 20W.

Quoting aquak9:
Thank you all and I am not bragging- I did a big rain prayer to God yesterday, held up the corn stalks and thanked Him, then asked Him to PLEASE send rain so that things would still grow.

And I prayed for everyone- Texas too- probably so loud that the neighbors heard me.

Then...it became so very hot and smokey, I had to give up gardening and go inside- but I had FAITH, I always have FAITH-

And it RAINED!!

ok, returning ya'll to your regularly scheduled programming...

It may be better to be more specific...Like, instead of asking for rain, ask for a certain amount of rain, like 2 inches or something.

It's nice to actually get it anyways though isn't it?

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have a new Tropical Wave in the surface charts at 00z around 20W.

This tropical wave will come into play with possible development 10 days or so from now.

Quoting spathy:


Yes!
But Grothar seems to be silent on the subject. :O)

Are we talking about the chicken that crossed the road or the egg that rolled off the barn roof?

It may be better to be more specific...Like, instead of asking for rain, ask for a certain amount of rain, like 2 inches or something.

I would never be one to specify my prayers, I leave that part up to Him. I am just so very grateful.

Tropical wave? Go baby go!!

Take a look at 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season in just 4:27 minutes...



Summary in that youtube Video:
The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream's position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Saw a lot of reports on WEAR FB page about it. North of I10 out towards Pine Forest road. Lot of power outages still.

I heard about the outages on the news. Fortunately I didn't lose power at my house, but some trees around here fell down (probably a good thing, since they died way back during Ivan and Dennis).

Quoting aquak9:
Thank you all and I am not bragging- I did a big rain prayer to God yesterday, held up the corn stalks and thanked Him, then asked Him to PLEASE send rain so that things would still grow.

And I prayed for everyone- Texas too- probably so loud that the neighbors heard me.

Then...it became so very hot and smokey, I had to give up gardening and go inside- but I had FAITH, I always have FAITH-

And it RAINED!!

ok, returning ya'll to your regularly scheduled programming...

Since you're a praying person, why don't you pray I get the severe thunderstorm I've been yearning for? Nature keeps teasing me. :)

Quoting sunlinepr:
Take a look at 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season in just 4:27 minutes...



Summary in that youtube Video:
The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream's position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Thanks for the link. Video on 2010 hurricane season was enjoyable and enlightening. For sure, the yucatan peninsula region suffered most from the north atlantic 2010 hurricane season.

Quoting 1992Andrew:



Thanks for the link. Video on 2010 hurricane season was enjoyable and enlightening. For sure, the yucatan peninsula region suffered most from the north atlantic 2010 hurricane season.

I also enjoyed that video and also had the opportunity to observe why here in PR we had a record rainy season... Now I'm looking for the individual videos (time lapse) of every month (somewhere there in Youtube).. they are worth for collecting them and comparing the atmospheric behaviour of every month and year... If you use Mozilla Firefox you can download the videos using an add on called downloadHelper...

Quoting sunlinepr:
Take a look at 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season in just 4:27 minutes...



Summary in that youtube Video:
The 2010 Hurricane Season tied with 1887 and 1995 having the third highest storm count on record with 19 named storms. But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream's position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land. This movie shows GOES-13 infrared imagery from June 1 through November 30, the official extents of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

thank you, i loved the video

Also, for those of you who would like to have the 2005 Season,
Good Night...

where did ev1 go

The global models are developing another tropical cyclone in a similar location to Adrian during the Sunday/Monday (June 19 - 20) time frame. In particular, the GFS and ECMWF show a fairly deep system, and while the remainder of the global models are less aggressive, they too indicate at least some sort of development in the region. The GFS has been persistent in developing this system. The likely candidate is a tropical wave currently moving through the eastern Caribbean.

As of now, the models show a large threat to southwestern Mexico as a persistent trough dominants the western United States. Of course, there are always uncertainties.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Of course, there are always uncertainties.

Understatement of the day.

Quoting sunlinepr:
Also, for those of you who would like to have the 2005 Season,
Good Night...

Lookin' forward to blogging incessantly, as per hurricane season in Puerto Rico, and counting with my fellow countrymen. Of course, if I don't land that job in NYC.

Edit: I guess I'll still come in if I'm outside the cone.

Quoting serialteg:


Of course, if I don't land that job in NYC.

What job, if I may ask?

Quoting KoritheMan:

What job, if I may ask?

I'll be job hunting - probably - first weeks of July. Looking for IT-related stuff.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Its pretty clear I think, a 5.0m earthquake hit further south at 19:20utc causing the stress that caused the 5.7m earthquake that hit at 21:03utc and allowing the volcano to blow.

OR built up pressure from gases and magma trying to push through the crust caused an earthquake, which may have made the cracks in the crust weaker, ultimately allowing the volcano to go off.

Both ideas presented in your post and my post may be correct, so I wouldn't be so quick to settle on one.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


True, but there is absolutely no correlation between air temperatures and volcano eruptions.

there may not be any correlation, but that could just be due to a lack of sufficient, accurate, data.

(Keep in mind I am talking about true climate extremes from here on out (say a good 20c warmer or cooler than the present global average))

Two things would change (amongst a sea of the thousands other this which would change) if Earth experienced extreme global warming/cooling, first, the density of the earth's crust, and second, the pressure pushing down on earth's crust as a result of the presence of significant amounts of ice or lack thereof.

These two variables have a big impact on plate activity, as well as earthquakes and volcanoes.

So just a reminder, don't be so quick to say a dramatically altered climate would have no affect on volcanic activity.

Quoting alfabob:

There are positive and negative feedbacks which can influence the direction of climate change, but there is no ideal climate. We live on a large rock floating through space, and we adapt to what mother nature throws at us; things can become very hostile under the right circumstances.

The only connection I could see between vulcanism and a warmer climate is something I am currently researching. It has to do with the excess heat modifying the gravitational potential; examples are polar ice, overall water temperature (density and spatial distribution) and about 0.01%-0.1% due to the atmospheric temperature/water vapor concentration. The Earth is composed of a bunch of plates mashing into each other, some regions on these plates are very sensitive. So when something like the Arctic loses 10000 cubic km of ice over 30 years, or temperatures slowly begin increasing over time; there is bound to be more activity.

agreed. Nice post

Warm weather anyone?

Today: Sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Heat index values as high as 107. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 74. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: A
20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny and
hot, with a high near 102. Heat index values as high as 109. West
northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: A
20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly
cloudy, with a low around 76. West southwest wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: A
30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny
and hot, with a high near 99. West southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Key West....

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING A
MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE KEYS ON
FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TYPE OF REGIME IS TYPICALLY
NOT A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE MESOSCALE PATTERN FOR RAINFALL IN THE
KEYS...AND WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THE WEEKEND...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO BRING A TROPICAL WAVE (APPARENTLY THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN) AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WOULD LIKELY
BE A WETTER REGIME FOR THE KEYS...AND THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES OF THE
MEX MOS HAVE CRANKED OUT 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE EXTREME DIFFICULTY WE HAVE HAD IN GETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE KEYS DURING OUR DROUGHT OF THE PAST FEW MONTHS...WILL
NOT RAISE POPS AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL NUDGE UP TO LOW CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

Ike?

Approx 1.3 inches.

Good morning and good day, wherever/whenever you might be.

Isn't it a little too early to be seeing triple digits?

Quoting aquak9:
Ike?

Approx 1.3 inches.

Good morning and good day, wherever/whenever you might be.

Isn't it a little too early to be seeing triple digits?

1.3 inches...congrats to you!

yeah-boy...figured ya might've read back and seen the media announcement.

Ouch on your weather, major ouch. We're only a coupla degrees off that here, and our little icon for today is SMOKE.

I got .06 inches of rain yesterday.

Looks like another east-PAC system @ 114 hours on the 6Z GFS....