Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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2179. aspectre
3:52 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
2164 hurricanehunter27 "Link says they know the volcano that erupted."

Thanks. Up 'til now, it's pretty much been bloggers reporting what other bloggers were saying, and satellite views without landmarks.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2178. earthlydragonfly
3:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Isn't the composition of Ash and "African Dust" Different? (shape size weight) I thought is was the micro in nature of the dust (micro in size) from the Sahara is what attached itself to water molecules that weighted the water molecule down that "potentially" affected (suppress) tropical development.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
2177. Jax82
3:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Hang out at the NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
2176. blsealevel
3:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting hcubed:


At this time. As we've seen from other recent volcanic eruptions, the "cloud" may drift as the prevailing winds change. There's still a chance that some garbage may wind up in the MDR, possibly supressing hurricane development.

Too soon to say.


I'v got to assume it's going to effect the carib. weather some kind of way might take a while though.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
2175. DEKRE
3:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Link says they know the volcano that erupted.
Link


It is really a moot point, which one it is. This whole region (Afar Triangle) is one big active area, the continuation of the Red Sea and part of the Great Rift, where Africa is breaking apart.
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
2174. AussieStorm
3:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting hcubed:


At this time. As we've seen from other recent volcanic eruptions, the "cloud" may drift as the prevailing winds change. There's still a chance that some garbage may wind up in the MDR, possibly supressing hurricane development.

Too soon to say.

This is where the Chile ash has gone.

Wouldn't be surprised this could be the same but take a little longer.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
2173. Neapolitan
3:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Hey, Waltanater: NEW BLOG ENTRY.

;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
2172. hcubed
3:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It seems as if the ash is being blown more northwesterly than westerly.


At this time. As we've seen from other recent volcanic eruptions, the "cloud" may drift as the prevailing winds change. There's still a chance that some garbage may wind up in the MDR, possibly supressing hurricane development.

Too soon to say.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
2171. blsealevel
3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like the ash clouds getting worse in that pic
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
2170. aquak9
3:21 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Gro- still spewing? not letting up yet?

trying to catch as much as I can here in as little as time as possible
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26067
2169. Grothar
3:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
2168. barbamz
3:19 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


Hi Barb. Unfortunately I don't know if anything can stop the violence in that area. Since the vote for the south to become their own country the violence has gotten worse because of........ OIL. If they can't fly aircraft then they will just throw in more ground forces.


Hi Dan, sadly you may be right. A volcanic fissure should open along the border between all these countries to protect them from each other ...
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6032
2167. Bitmap7
3:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Well gentlemen, I have done my research on Eritrea and found it to be a new country. More interestingly though, is that it seems to have some of the most beautiful African women in the world.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2166. Grothar
3:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Link says they know the volcano that erupted.
Link


Would have been nice if they spelled it correctly.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
2165. PcolaDan
3:15 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting barbamz:
I hope at least the plume will stop the ongoing bombing on the border between North and South Sudan. Reuters is covering this, but doesen't pay any attention to the volcano yet.

http://af.reuters.com/news/country/?type=sudanNew s


Hi Barb. Unfortunately I don't know if anything can stop the violence in that area. Since the vote for the south to become their own country the violence has gotten worse because of........ OIL. If they can't fly aircraft then they will just throw in more ground forces.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2164. hurricanehunter27
3:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Link says they know the volcano that erupted.
Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
2163. Neapolitan
3:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
The Wallow Fire is now up to 407 square miles, a bit smaller than 2002's Rodeo-Chediski fire, which consumed a little over 732 square miles. Inciweb lists the blaze as 10% contained, so they're making progress...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
2162. blsealevel
3:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Cotillion:


No, no, no.

Completely exclusive from one another.

Just to point out that supervolcanoes are capable of mass extinction from a separate comment. It's probably Mother Earth's most dangerous weapon. Siberian Traps eruption was an extremely long time ago - 250 million years ago or so, Permian/Triassic boundary. As the name suggests, it was in Siberia, Russia.

You can sleep soundly :)


Umm, I should of reread, must of had some kind of brain thing going on sorry and thanks
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
2161. PcolaDan
3:07 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Bitmap7:


Yeah, in fact this is the first time I am hearing of a country named Eritrea.


It was part of Ethiopia for a while. The bold below is what we mostly heard about on the news, if anything.

...which in turn led to Eritrea's annexation as Ethiopia's 14th province in 1952. This was the culmination of a gradual process of takeover by the Ethiopian authorities, a process which included a 1959 edict establishing the compulsory teaching of Amharic, the main language of Ethiopia, in all Eritrean schools. The lack of regard for the Eritrean population led to the formation of an independence movement in the early 1960s (1961), which erupted into a 30-year war against successive Ethiopian governments that ended in 1991. Following a UN-supervised referendum in Eritrea (dubbed UNOVER) in which the Eritrean people overwhelmingly voted for independence, Eritrea declared its independence and gained international recognition in 1993.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2159. Neapolitan
3:07 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
It's always amusing when someone comes into a forum (or into a RW room) just to complain about the current topic(s), and when you ask them what they'd like to discuss, they only stomp their feet and say, "I don't know! Just not what you guys are talking about!"

Ah, human nature. Always entertaining... ;-)

Far more entertaining, however--and interesting--would be if the volcano were, as suggested here, neither Nabro nor Dubbi. Parhaps a new fissure vent? Paricutin in Eritrea?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
2158. weathermanwannabe
3:07 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


He is actually having a virus problem this morning.


Thanks for the info...........On the volcano issue, a possible effect on h-season is pretty speculative and depends on a lot of factors related to duration of eruption, how much ash, steering currents, effect on SSTs in the MDR; almost similar to SAL issues; it might have a great impact or it might not.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
2157. AussieStorm
3:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


That may in fact be a bigger issue. That is one of the most dangerous areas of the world.

I work with a guy from Eritrea. He has told me things i can't repeat or want to remember. I think if you google Eritrea and Ethiopia war, you'll get what I mean.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
2156. barbamz
3:05 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
I hope at least the plume will stop the ongoing bombing on the border between North and South Sudan. Reuters is covering this, but doesen't pay any attention to the volcano yet.

http://af.reuters.com/news/country/?type=sudanNew s
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6032
2155. AussieStorm
3:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
aussie- same old same old...hand waltenater some of your YellowDrank- he needs it!

Yeah, I would hand him the bottle.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
2154. PcolaDan
3:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Not to mention the hostile environment, both environmentally and politically.


That may in fact be a bigger issue. That is one of the most dangerous areas of the world.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2153. AussieStorm
3:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:
If this eruption is related to tropical hurricanes, I should expect to see the NHC talk about this in their next discussion??

If the ash was moving westerly i might expect them to maybe mention it, but since it's not i wouldn't.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
2152. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning..........Given the late hour and still no post from Dr. M, I would imagine he will be addressing the volcano issue and putting together lots of charts and analog comparisons....


He is actually having a virus problem this morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
2151. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:
If this eruption is related to tropical hurricanes, I should expect to see the NHC talk about this in their next discussion??


Unlikely, because we still do not know what kind of impact it COULD have on our hurricane season.

I think the impacts would be small, if any.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
2150. weathermanwannabe
3:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Good Morning..........Given the late hour and still no post from Dr. M, I would imagine he will be addressing the volcano issue and putting together lots of charts and analog comparisons....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
2149. Bitmap7
3:02 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


Actually the volcano is in Eritrea, even LESS interesting to media.


Yeah, in fact this is the first time I am hearing of a country named Eritrea.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2148. ncstorm
3:02 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
If this eruption is related to tropical hurricanes, I should expect to see the NHC talk about this in their next discussion??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15684
2147. aquak9
3:01 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
aussie- same old same old...hand waltenater some of your YellowDrank- he needs it!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26067
2146. PcolaDan
3:01 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Bitmap7:
Its ethiopia. "Who Cares" is the media philosophy on this one. Why pay attention to that when there are sex scandals going on in the US.


Actually the volcano is in Eritrea, even LESS interesting to media.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2145. AussieStorm
3:01 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Alright, I'm gone again. May be back later.... So likely to see u on the new blog... stay cool!

I'm not cool... i'm cold.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
2144. AussieStorm
3:00 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


Lack of feet on the ground because of it's isolation, plus the probability of it being extremely dangerous in the area make it difficult to figure out what it really going on. So all the estimates of which volcano erupted are based on all the various satellite views. Hopefully a first person account will come out soon.

Not to mention the hostile environment, both environmentally and politically.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
2143. gulfbreeze
2:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
What could this Volcano do to the ITC?
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 913
2142. Jax82
2:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
someone in here has a case of the Mundays.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
2141. Bitmap7
2:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Ethiopia UPDATE (10 AM Eastern): Well, leave it to an eruption this week to not be simple. It appears that the eruption in Eritrea from not from Dubbi but rather from Nabro, an even more mysteries volcano. It is a composite volcano with no known historical eruption - in fact, very little is known about the volcano beyond the fact that it is part of a volcanic complex that has a number of nested calderas.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2140. BahaHurican
2:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Alright, I'm gone again. May be back later.... So likely to see u on the new blog... stay cool!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
2139. PcolaDan
2:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting aspectre:
I'm finding myself becoming curious about the long delay in officially announcing which volcano blew its stack... and speculating about the possibility that it was neither Dubbi nor Nabro.

Ignoring the dots labeled with HOD(HodeidaInternational) and ASA(AssabInternational)

The centermost dot(s) in the cluster are the (nearly co-located) epicenters where yesterday the magnitude5.1quake stuck at 3:37pmGMT and the magnitude5.7quake struck at 8:32pmGMT.
~18.2kilometres to the NorthEast is Dubbi : ~9.9kilometre to the (east of) dueSouth is Nabro
The bloated unconnected dot is the 9:03pmGMT magnitude5.7quake's epicenter _AND_
a third*volcano at 13.524n41.617e ~0.6kilometres to the southeast of that third epicenter.

There appears to be remnants of at least two more within a couple of kilometres of that 3rd epicenter. (Note that the third volcano is about as close to the 2nd epicenter as Nabro.)
A volcanic reawakening there might explain the delay in an official announcement and the lack of news out of Afambo, the nearest Eritrean town likely to have cellphone communications.
(The 3rd volcano rim would be the most likely spot to place a cellphone tower. And a major-for-Eritrea road runs eastward near the south of the rim.)

* Sorry. Can't get the blog program to allow a GoogleMaps satellite-view link to work. And the GreatCircleMapper doesn't show a finer(more closeup)view.


Lack of feet on the ground because of it's isolation, plus the probability of it being extremely dangerous in the area make it difficult to figure out what it really going on. So all the estimates of which volcano erupted are based on all the various satellite views. Hopefully a first person account will come out soon.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2138. BahaHurican
2:56 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
2127. aspectre

Seems this is one larger complex of volcanic activity with several potential "vent" spots... will be quite interesting to see exactly where the venting is taking place.... the geologists sure seem excited.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
2137. Orcasystems
2:55 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Bitmap7:
Its ethiopia. "Who Cares" is the media philosophy on this one. Why pay attention to that when there are sex scandals going on in the US.


True.. I was reading the drudge report (I have no idea why) and I doubt they even know where it is.. more less what it is.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2136. Cotillion
2:55 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting blsealevel:


Sorry i havent studied up on this yet, is this Volcano
left over from from the Siberian Traps eruption?


No, no, no.

Completely exclusive from one another.

Just to point out that supervolcanoes are capable of mass extinction from a separate comment. It's probably Mother Earth's most dangerous weapon. Siberian Traps eruption was an extremely long time ago - 250 million years ago or so, Permian/Triassic boundary. As the name suggests, it was in Siberia, Russia.

You can sleep soundly :)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2135. ProgressivePulse
2:55 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
2116. Levi32 2:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Volcanoes affect the atmosphere. Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere. Enough said.

That's exactly my point! Then you should SAY NO MORE!

BTW it is the "eruption" of volcanoes, not volcanoes themselves. 'Nuff said!



What are you going to do if the next blog is on the Volcano? LOL.

Regardless, members will still be talking about it.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
2133. AussieStorm
2:54 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Bitmap7:
Its ethiopia. "Who Cares" is the media philosophy on this one. Why pay attention to that when there are sex scandals going on in the US.

I'm thinking it's the lack of information getting out of the area is the problem. News channels want footage to show along with reporting them.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
2132. emcf30
2:53 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It seems as if the ash is being blown more northwesterly than westerly.


Agreed
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
2131. Bitmap7
2:52 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Its ethiopia. "Who Cares" is the media philosophy on this one. Why pay attention to that when there are sex scandals going on in the US.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2130. BahaHurican
2:50 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Walt. Get the drift. There is a connection between this particular volcanic eruption and the tropical wx we are watching. That's one reason we r watching it.

I'm starting 2 wonder if u r just trolling the blog for fun with these comments. Just IMO.... YMMV.

I know last night I was thinking more of a direct westerly drift of particles. Obviously my understanding of prevailing winds in that part of Africa has improved since then. So everything is a potential learning situation.

Cool out.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
2129. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:50 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting emcf30:
Excerpt out of bigthink that Nea post earlier.

One interesting note is speculation of how any extending periods of ash might effect the hurricane season as the ash is blown westward over Africa to the Atlantic


It seems as if the ash is being blown more northwesterly than westerly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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