Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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1779. emcf30
Quoting twincomanche:
Dubbi.


Go to Google Earth and turn on the weather overlay. It is clearly not Dubbi. It is about 16 mile SSE of that at Nabro. That is where the plume begins.
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1778. ncstorm
Quoting emcf30:


For those who want to get in the mood, Deep Impact is on TNT. Getting ready to hit Earth


Well I watch "Knowing" with nicholas cage today..the big "solar flare" taking out earth..very good movie by the way..
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1776. aquak9
Chiklet- please don't make us started spelling/saying that again.

Eye-uh-jah-ful. Elijah-waffle. Oh never mind.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
1775. emcf30
Quoting PcolaDan:


You must be like Amy then, glued to the Armageddon (History) Channel. :)


For those who want to get in the mood, Deep Impact is on TNT. Getting ready to hit Earth
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1774. aquak9
Quoting PcolaDan:


You must be like Amy then, glued to the Armageddon (History) Channel. :)


Actually, I'm just glued to this place.

Cosmic- thank you for spelling it out for him. C'mon, Gro, get with the program here.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
We better hope Katla is not getting antsy.

Volcano ash: Threat of second volcano Katla '10 times the strength'
A second volcano in Iceland could erupt with 10 times the force of Eyjafyoll if history repeats itself, scientists have warned

LinkApr2011
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Quoting twincomanche:
Dubbi everyone thinks (not confirmed) and if so it last erupted in 1861.
seems like some think the larger 1 to the SW is what erupted... still a couple hours to sunrise there and visible sat photos.

If Dubbi, at least we have some relatively recent reports. If the other, it becomes more of a puzzle.
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Grothar, it's a volcano named NABRO.
And, it'd big, in fact this might be the big one!.
.
.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5606
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh Conner, your a trip.

I'm going to bed early, night all and Grothar.


Haha, night Cody.
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Quoting aquak9:
Apocalyptic? My kinda people!

for the first time since the earthquake/tsunami, strontium has been found in the groundwater near Fukushima.

so suddenly it's 240 times the limit? when was the last time they tested? Who's been doing the testing?

Apocalyptic is my middle name.


You must be like Amy then, glued to the Armageddon (History) Channel. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
UPDATE 23:46 UTC : We are now convinced that the erupting volcano is the Nabro volcano (an official confirmation is still missing)
This is from the earthquake geeks at earthquake-report.com.

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1766. Bitmap7


BD enhancement of ash plume.


NHC enhancement of ash plume.
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aquaApocalypticK9

...is a bit of a mouthful

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1759 - lol...
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi TC, this is on wiki: (Nabro)
Geology
False-color topographical relief image of the Nabro and nearby Mallahle (in Ethiopia) volcanoes.Part of the Afar Triangle, the Nabro Volcano is one of many volcanic caldera complexes in the northeasternmost part of the East African Rift valley region. The twin calderas likely formed about during an eruption of about 20 to 100 cubic kilometres consisting of ignimbrite, although the date of their formation is unknown. The subaerial volume of volcanic material within the Nabro Volcanic Range mantle plume is likely on the order of 550 km3.[2]

[edit] 2011 eruptionDespite having undergone no eruptions in recent history, the Nabro Volcano likely erupted shortly after midnight on June 13, 2011 local time, after a series of earthquakes in the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region, ranging up to magnitude 5.7. The ash plume was observed on satellite drifting to the west-northwest along the border, and spanned about 50 km wide and several hundred kilometres across in the hours immediately following the reported eruption.



The last part was just added by one of our bloggers here.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting caneswatch:


Must....stop....bad thoughts LOL


Oh Conner, your a trip.

I'm going to bed early, night all and Grothar.
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Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?


It appears it may be Nabro in Eritrea.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1759. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
Dubbi everyone thinks (not confirmed) and if so it last erupted in 1861.



No one knows the name. Come on, if it was 11,000 years ago, I might be of some help. What volcano erupted?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?


Speculation that is was Nabro.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Please keep coming, PLEASE.



Must....stop....bad thoughts LOL
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Hi TC, this is on wiki: (Nabro)
Geology
False-color topographical relief image of the Nabro and nearby Mallahle (in Ethiopia) volcanoes.Part of the Afar Triangle, the Nabro Volcano is one of many volcanic caldera complexes in the northeasternmost part of the East African Rift valley region. The twin calderas likely formed about during an eruption of about 20 to 100 cubic kilometres consisting of ignimbrite, although the date of their formation is unknown. The subaerial volume of volcanic material within the Nabro Volcanic Range mantle plume is likely on the order of 550 km3.[2]

[edit] 2011 eruptionDespite having undergone no eruptions in recent history, the Nabro Volcano likely erupted shortly after midnight on June 13, 2011 local time, after a series of earthquakes in the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region, ranging up to magnitude 5.7. The ash plume was observed on satellite drifting to the west-northwest along the border, and spanned about 50 km wide and several hundred kilometres across in the hours immediately following the reported eruption.

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To keep with the current apocalyptic theme..
5.2 Magnitude 5 miles ESE of Christchurch, NZ
Link
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1753. aquak9
Apocalyptic? My kinda people!

for the first time since the earthquake/tsunami, strontium has been found in the groundwater near Fukushima.

so suddenly it's 240 times the limit? when was the last time they tested? Who's been doing the testing?

Apocalyptic is my middle name.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?


Pick one...Link
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1751. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?



Volcanoes of Eritrea

Jalua

Alid

Dubbi

Nabro

Assab

Gufa

Mousa All






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Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?

They think it's Nabro.
I think the last time this one erupted was about 11,000 years ago.
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1749. Bitmap7
From another blog:

I just spoke to a friend of mine in Djibouti, about 200 km South of Nabro.
(They live in the night and sleep in the day!)
They felt the earthquakes in the evening and initially though it was bombs.

Until now, they did not hear anything about volcanic eruption; but he also state that their goats and camels are unsettled since late last night; to such extend they posted guards fearing someone was trying to steel them.

I still don't see any confirmation on any news; including Aljazeera and Ethiopia First news agency.

This is Africa and this area is very remote, not many people living there.
BUT Africa has its own; when it comes to news travels very fast and wide.
Somewhat strange nobody officially reporting yet.
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1747. Grothar
What volcano erupted?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
1746. Patrap
Quoting presslord:
George Noory is explaining it allLink



Good,,George is on it..



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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Can't verify, but reports of double harmonic tremors now at Katla volcano in Iceland, too.

Katla? That's the big one.

This may have been oosted before, but the vulcanologists are already scurring to the scene.
Strong earthquakes are setting off a powerful volcanic eruption in Eritrea (based on satellite images)
Last update: June 13, 2011 at 12:50 am by By Armand Vervaeck and James Daniell 7 Comments

Earthquake / Eruption summary : During the late afternoon and evening of June 12 2011, a series of moderate earthquakes struck the Afambo, Eritrea area. The moderate earthquakes were followed by 2 strong 5.7 earthquakes. Based on the earthquake pattern and the locations of the epicenter, volcano activity seemed imminent.


UPDATE 13/06 %u2013 00:47 UTC : From now on we will have to wait for local reports, pictures, video%u2019s etc.
We are very eager to get a confirmation that nobody was hurt and that no damage was inflicted during the earthquake and/or eruption.
Many scientists will board airplanes to take a close look at the volcano, take samples, etc.



Link
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Thanks 4 the various links and imagery, all. I'm getting a much better image of what the potential source is [looking like Nabro, IMO, uneducated though it may be] and what the potential impacts may also be. Only good thing about this so far is this seems to be a relatively low-density district population wise that's receiving the most immediate impacts. Looks like the plume is getting to the Sudanese border now....
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Anik krakatau, is 1 of the volcanoes to watch it is active growing about 16 feet per year and it has both types of magama chambers black and red under tremendous pressure.Just like the aug 1883 explosion which was heard 2,200 miles away in perth australia and another 3,000 miles in mauritius.Basically it was about 4 times the power of the most powerful nuclear device detonated,the tsar bomba it changed the global average temperature about 1.2 degrees for 5 years.When this volcanoe decides to go maybe within out lifetime it will be a catastrophic event, just for the size of the tsunami's it would create.
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Can earthquakes be remotely triggered?

Research journal

Wikipedia

Geology.com
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George Noory is explaining it allLink
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1740. Patrap
If the Caldera or crater is 4 miles wide and open,,thats one thing


If its 8..thats another.


I've been crunching some quick noodling numbers...




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1739. Bitmap7
> 2hrs before we get a visible satellite image.
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Well, since we're being all apocalyptic and all, I thought I'd add that, for the first time since the earthquake/tsunami, strontium has been found in the groundwater near Fukushima. The strontium, which accumulates in bones and causes cancer and leukemia, is at levels 240 times the legal limit.

So, there's that, too...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting Patrap:
Erta Ale is an active shield volcano located in the Afar Region of northeastern Ethiopia. It is the most active volcano in Ethiopia. Erta Ale stands 613 metres tall, with a lava lake, one of only four in the world, at the summit. It is located in the Danakil Depression, a desert area spanning the border with Eritrea.
Erta Ale's last major eruption was in 2005, when thousands of nearby residents were forced to flee. Additional lava flow activity took place in August 2007, forcing the evacuation of hundreds and leaving two missing.



Purely speculative, but: when that area gets surrounded by seawater after potentially only 7 metres of sea level rise, the extra water might stress faults and increase volcanic activity.
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1735. Patrap


PIA04953:
Nabro and Mallahle Volcanoes, Eritrea and Ethiopia, SRTM Colored Height and Shaded Relief
Full Resolution:
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1733 - Looks good, hope it follows through, you guys need it. The storms just teased us here in NW FL today.
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Please keep coming, PLEASE.

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1732. Bitmap7
Iceland Katla

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FWIW...

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1730. Patrap
Erta Ale is an active shield volcano located in the Afar Region of northeastern Ethiopia. It is the most active volcano in Ethiopia. Erta Ale stands 613 metres tall, with a lava lake, one of only four in the world, at the summit. It is located in the Danakil Depression, a desert area spanning the border with Eritrea.
Erta Ale's last major eruption was in 2005, when thousands of nearby residents were forced to flee. Additional lava flow activity took place in August 2007, forcing the evacuation of hundreds and leaving two missing.

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1729. Patrap



Eritrea from Sea Level
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.