Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Did Adrian's CDO shrink overnight? he looks TINY!!!


It's because he is now an annular hurricane.

Good afternoon all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Did Adrian's CDO shrink overnight? he looks TINY!!!
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54. CanesfanatUT 5:17 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

Quoting HCW:


Everybody knows that Jim Cantorie is the Storm shield and that you are safe if he shows up at your location. One storm in his long career at TWC say's it all



Where he was in MS during Katrina was no joke. They were extremely lucky, from what I remember.

********

He's no storm shield. He's just a better than average weather forecaster (with a lot of help) and a cagy broadcast personality. He sets up close enough to where to the storm will hit to get dramatic video without loosing signal. Then he can be one of the "first ones on the scene". You really think his network and insurance co. are going to let him pull the kind of stunts a (best to remain nameless) former frequenter of this blog did?
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The TAFB/NHC also forecast the associated surface trough to move west-northwest and into South Florida in the next couple days:

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As that Ull in the "GOMEX" drifts SSW should increase rain chances along gulf coast states i would think?
Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting cchsweatherman:


The cold front will likely stall out over the Carolinas and will likely not be enough to pull the disturbance out to sea just yet.


Okay, thanks!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Well that sure was spectacular how much Adrian strengthened into an annular major - awesome sat presentation esp around 0Z to 04Z Thu eve at peak before clouds warmed in it's core... It looked as good as any Cat 4 140 mph storm could, and who knows how strong it actually was... LOL, it matched the intensity of the Mavericks-Heat game last night!

Just some additional thoughts...
(and somewhat related to blsealevel's post #47 above)

Interesting to note, Adrian's one good outflow channel to the SW amidst the dry air also reflects it's deep-layered tropical moisture source it continued to feed off of, as I mentioned would couple days ago... GFS analysis had been showing this persistent moisture plume at ALL layers, offering all the moisture it needed, such as this 500 mb RH analysis at 0Z near it's peak... Also it's clearly seen in all views of the total precipitable water, such as CIRA TPW E Pac loop... So Adrian wasn't completely surrounded by dry air... There certainly was dry air entraining as late as 14-15Z period yesterday on it's NNW quad when the eye was ragged, ill-defined still in it's formative stage giving the impression of it struggling - IMO, streaking in from the dry air wedge on it's SE side... Immediately after in response, fresh convection formed and further blossomed into a solid convective ring as system fully closed off the dry entrainment, while the moisture-rich SW plume tied to the ITCZ maintained it.

It makes for interesting study observing the effects we see from dry air entrainment at different stages of development, from killing systems to even making them stronger, each situation / response varying quite a bit, often unpredictably... I'm sure most of you can remember several instances... As one example, IMO, Gustav's extreme 212 mph gust over Cuba was directly due to the initial dry air streak entrainment at the time it was peaking, at or right after landfall - and a fairly steady diet of dry air ingestion (via a developing ULL, progressing NE to SW over GOM ahead of Gus' passage) kept it a relatively weak Cat 3 before it slammed us in SE LA as a Cat 2... LOL, I compared it to a dragster running a "too lean" fuel mixture... Examples of dry air killing systems trying to organize are too numerous to list...

Okay, gotta go find some lunch!
Later...
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Quoting Jax82:
You can def see the spin East of Miami.

churn baby churn!
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Quoting ncstorm:


I understood there was a cold front exiting the eastern coast that will turn this out to sea not the steering currents


The cold front will likely stall out over the Carolinas and will likely not be enough to pull the disturbance out to sea just yet.
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Shear is going to keep this east of the coast of Florida 40-50 knots unless it calms down to 15-20 knots are below I dont think this ones going to pan out.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting Jax82:
You can def see the spin East of Miami.



Very nice imagery there.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Avila not impressed


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MOVING NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN




Not surprising at all considering the rather hostile upper level environment. Watching this more for some possible much needed rainfall for South Florida than for development.
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Avila not impressed


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MOVING NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN


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You can def see the spin East of Miami.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just doing some analysis and there is indeed a weak surface low just off Andros Island in the Bahamas as shown in the nowCOAST analysis below:



Recent RGB imagery also supports a weak surface low in this area and does not appear to moving much at all throughout the day.

At this time, steering currents (as seen below) have essentially broken down but based on the evolving pattern and current trends, the weak surface low and associated trough should gradually shift west-northwest to northwest in the coming days and finally bring some much needed rainfall to South Florida.




Good analysis there CCH. Let's hope and pray it verifies. Otherwise it's going to get smoky the next couple days at the coast.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just doing some analysis and there is indeed a weak surface low just off Andros Island in the Bahamas as shown in the nowCOAST analysis below:



Recent RGB imagery also supports a weak surface low in this area and does not appear to moving much at all throughout the day.

At this time, steering currents (as seen below) have essentially broken down but based on the evolving pattern and current trends, the weak surface low and associated trough should gradually shift west-northwest to northwest in the coming days and finally bring some much needed rainfall to South Florida.



I understood there was a cold front exiting the eastern coast that will turn this out to sea not the steering currents
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Just doing some analysis and there is indeed a weak surface low just off Andros Island in the Bahamas as shown in the nowCOAST analysis below:



Recent RGB imagery also supports a weak surface low in this area and does not appear to moving much at all throughout the day.

At this time, steering currents (as seen below) have essentially broken down but based on the evolving pattern and current trends, the weak surface low and associated trough should gradually shift west-northwest to northwest in the coming days and finally bring some much needed rainfall to South Florida.

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56. I feel like a lost a few man points just now...
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Quoting yesterway:
The climate in Florida has changed. I am a Florida native and grew up in Miami. Every afternoon (during the 50's,60's and 70's) around 1500 the sky would darken and the hydrologic cycle would activate via sea breeze collision and provide between 0.50 - 3.00" of rain. Now you cannot buy 0.50" of rain at any given location on any given day. Florida is now like a desert. And what concerns me most [as a hydrologist with the SJRWMD] is the following;

No population/development growth control which causes increased consumptive use demand on Florida's groundwater supplies


No effective water restriction enforcement by water management districts

Lack of public awareness and cooperation (People seem to care more about having green grass than water to cook with and drink)

The west coast of Florida is already using desalinization plants as a means of providing fresh water as a result of saltwater intrusion (which is irreversible!)

If the citizens of Florida and the powers that be do not change the way this state's water supply is managed we are all going to be getting our potable water from bottles or a pipeline unless the mechanism's that Florida has always depended upon for rainfall return.
We already have our problems here with the quality of potable water. Most water is ground water, supplied either from wellfields in Andros and barged to Nassau, or pumped directly from the existing water table / lense via individial wells. In either case, the vast majority of water users on New Providence buy bottled water for drinking. It's a very viable business here. My househould averages $50 a month on water just for drinking, and others use more. When supplies get very low, sometimes there is water rationing. S FL could avoid these problems, but public awareness has to be greater.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Why did I get "its raining men" stuck in my head just now I'll never know...


AAAGGGGHHHH!!!!!!


;)
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Quoting HCW:


Everybody knows that Jim Cantorie is the Storm shield and that you are safe if he shows up at your location. One storm in his long career at TWC say's it all


Where he was in MS during Katrina was no joke. They were extremely lucky, from what I remember.
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Looks like 94L maybe relocating north of Cuba, near the Bahamas.
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The climate in Florida has changed. I am a Florida native and grew up in Miami. Every afternoon (during the 50's,60's and 70's) around 1500 the sky would darken and the hydrologic cycle would activate via sea breeze collision and provide between 0.50 - 3.00" of rain. Now you cannot buy 0.50" of rain at any given location on any given day. Florida is now like a desert. And what concerns me most [as a hydrologist with the SJRWMD] is the following;

No population/development growth control which causes increased consumptive use demand on Florida's groundwater supplies

No effective water restriction enforcement by water management districts

Lack of public awareness and cooperation (People seem to care more about having green grass than water to cook with and drink)

The west coast of Florida is already using desalinization plants as a means of providing fresh water as a result of saltwater intrusion (which is irreversible!)

If the citizens of Florida and the powers that be do not change the way this state's water supply is managed we are all going to be getting our potable water from bottles or a pipeline unless the mechanism's that Florida has always depended upon for rainfall return.
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High pressure moving in to the northeast next couple of days,might aid in any spin 94l still has,if it decides to move slowly north.
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Quoting IKE:
There's your rain Florida....




Why did I get "its raining men" stuck in my head just now I'll never know...
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48. IKE
I see a spin east of Miami on visible. Kind of see it on radar......


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Ooops, Click link and check dry air.
Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
94L definitely has a LLC, although it is weak and is getting strongly sheared. Center is very close to Nassau. Winds are from the SSW there.

Link
West winds are very unusual here at this time of year. Currently we are seeing a glimmer of sun through the cloud cover here. Most of the rain seems east of us now.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Intresting to say the least at least to me



Link
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44. IKE
There's your rain Florida....


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XX/AOI/XXL
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Morning...
I was glad to hear that Baha finally got rain in Nassau.
We have clearing today, after 10 day period of some rain every day.
I have to admit I didn't think it was fair u guys got rain and we didn't.... lol.... like we had the "cone of silence" over us....

The cool breeze and the moisture is a really pleasant change from the constant sun.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.43N/107.6W
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Quoting sunlinepr:



That upper low is starting to push off to the NW at the end of the image. COMON RAIN....MOVE WEST....
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
Quoting yesterway:
Would someone please tell me how you add an animated file to the blog. I understand how to add an image but not an animated image. Thank you kindly.


Kinda new to this myself, and doesnt always work for me...but try this:

Right click on the antimating image
Click on properties
Copy the address
Click on image button...Paste to box that pops up..click ok.....I always check the Preview Comments before sending to blog....maybe this will help :)
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Quoting yesterway:
Would someone please tell me how you add an animated file to the blog. I understand how to add an image but not an animated image. Thank you kindly.

You can only add GIF animations or Embeded Flash (from Youtube)...
Find an animated weather satellite in Gif format, copy and paste...

Example:

Goto
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteL oop/hicbsat_None_anim.gif
Link

Copy that animation to the blog, It is a Gif animation...
(You have to Select copy image location and paste)
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a plate of pastries
or a fruit pie
or a fluffy chocolate pie


I gained 5 pounds just by reading that....
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36. HCW
Quoting PcolaDan:
Cantore tweet

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
http://twitpic.com/59lps0 A great, albeit hot day for shooting Cantore Stories here at Pensacola Beach. Only worry if I come back ;-)


Everybody knows that Jim Cantorie is the Storm shield and that you are safe if he shows up at your location. One storm in his long career at TWC say's it all
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Quoting aquak9:
you tricked me
I thought it would be a plate of pastries
or a fruit pie
or a fluffy chocolate pie

but it was a rainbow loop of SlapInTheFace


Maybe you will get some swells for a seashore excursion.
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Would someone please tell me how you add an animated file to the blog. I understand how to add an image but not an animated image. Thank you kindly.
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94L definitely has a LLC, although it is weak and is getting strongly sheared. Center is very close to Nassau. Winds are from the SSW there.

Link
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I guess it is safe to say that Invest 94 will not be providing any rainfall for Florida. It was the perfect kind of system to provide rainfall without exacting a price. I hate to see it pull away. It is so dry here and now no chances for rain in view.
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Cantore tweet

@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
http://twitpic.com/59lps0 A great, albeit hot day for shooting Cantore Stories here at Pensacola Beach. Only worry if I come back ;-)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.