Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting Grothar:


I heard that!


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Quoting Sheening:
Is a man not entitled to his own opinion without fear of ridicule from his peers?

Maybe a well thought out opinion but not an ignorant one not based on anything
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Quoting Sheening:
Is a man not entitled to his own opinion without fear of ridicule from his peers?


Absolutely, he is. I didn't see much ridicule though.
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Been out all day and just checking in so I have missed any drama of the day. I agree with an earlier post on that little area in the e-pac at about 93W/10N; might be worth watching and note that ITCZ is firing nicely towards the Pacific with the Caribbean basin and Gulf continuing to clear out.

As mentioned yesterday by a few bloggers, MJO moving away from the Atlantic and E-Pact starting to fire up starting with Adrian; it will probably remaiin pretty quiet on the Atlantic side once 94L and it's remnants clear out, and, as long as the e-pac keeps firing up; I think that Klotzbach's "storm clusters" observations at to the CV season in the Atlantic basin might also apply to the E-Pac so we might be seeing a similar cluster of storms there over the next few weeks if this next blob, or the larger one behind it exiting from near Panama, also develop into a storm.

In any event, everyone have a Great Weekend.....WW
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
173. j2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Is it bad I've had to ignore as many people in the last few days as I did half of last season? :-/

Anyways, Adrian is weakening and the eye is becoming quite deformed.

Looks as if Adrian has reached the cold water demise stage in hurricanes.
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172. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN (EP012011)
2:00 PM PDT June 10 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: "ADRIAN" Weakening And Remains Well-Offshore Of Mexico

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Adrian (956 hPa) located at 15.5N 108.6W or 340 NM south southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico has sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3N 111.4W - 85 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.2N 113.6W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.5N 115.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Just watch these pop-ups....will cool ya right down :P



You know the weather is screwed up when there are more afternoon heating storms in Alabama and Georgia then in Florida. What is strange, is the PWAT and CAPE in Florida are both a lot higher, there is more overall instability and sea breezes, yet still very little action over Florida.

I mean sure, the PWAT and instability is still below normal for June, but it has recovered some from the last few days enough to what is supposed to be more storms, but nope, still nothing more than about 20% coverage again...
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Howdy Buhdog, man it's been awhile, good to see ya...
Thanks!

As too frequently the case, the aftn chores are calling,
Catch up with yas later...
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Is it bad I've had to ignore as many people in the last few days as I did half of last season? :-/

Anyways, Adrian is weakening and the eye is becoming quite deformed.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
Quoting RTLSNK:
For the rest of you in this report: shame on you.


This is a blog on which anybody can express their opinions on weather patterns, and their predictions, people are allowed to disagree. Having just looked at all of your 'quotes', I saw nothing abusive or threatening. If I put emphasis on the comments from Levi32, yes his prediction was incorrect, and he has accepted this, but he provided an accurate scientific basis for his prediction. In post 602, which I can only assume is where you are accusing him of being in any way disrespectful or wrong, what he said was that rapid thunderstorm development is not an indication of rapid intensification of a hurricane, which is completely true. There was nothing abusive in any of these comments, merely views, regardless of whether or not they were correct. Full credit to Bitmap7 for having a correct prediction, but others can make their own too. Also, I'd question who commissioned you to create a 'report'.
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167. j2008
Quoting RTLSNK:
I have an interesting report on Hurricane Adrian and the conduct and behavioral tendencies of members of this website.

On Dr. Master's blog of June 08, 2011, on page 11, post 547 that evening, a new blogger named Bitmap7 downloaded the following comment:

"I call cat3 on Adrian by 8:00 am tomorrow. Thunderstorms popping up in the center like crazy, and its dmin."

On page 12 he began to be questioned and even threatened to be ignored by one blogger for giving his opinion in his comment. You can go back two blogs and read them for yourselves, but allow me to give you a guide:

555 - AussieStorm
559 - taco2me61
569 - AussieStorm
575 - Levi32
592 - AussieStorm
593 - Hurrykane
594 - Levi32

It continued on the next page, page 13:

602 - Levi32
610 - AussieStorm
611 - Levi32
614 - AussieStorm

On page 13, in his post 621, Bitmap7 tried to explain to "The Experts" why he felt Adrian had a chance to fight off the dry air that was ahead of the storm. He cited the report of the NASA Hurricane Science Research Program concerning what they had discovered about the convective ring feature in storms that had rapid intensification capabilities.

Bitmap7 finally gave up trying to swim upstream against the "Experts" vast knowledge and left.

Let us now fast forward to the very next morning, and see what happened. This was a portion of the NHC report on poor little Adrian:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

Holy Hurricane Batman, did the NHC just say that ADRIAN IS A CAT 3 AT 8:00 HRS?

Gee, isn't that what Bitmap7 said last night?

I have read every comment on the blog for the last two days. I have yet to see anyone give credit to this new blogger for his excellent call on Wed night. Nor have I seen any one apologize.

Bitmap7, if you are still lurking on this blog, what we normally do in a case like this is give you verbal kudo's for your well thought out and reasoned and studied call.

Let me also apologize to you for the treatment you received and advise you not to give up on something that you are obviously very good at.

For the rest of you in this report: shame on you.

And If you recall I also stated that it would reach cat 3. Just to let you know everyones perspective is welcome here, so lets all listen to each other and have a civilized blog and not blame people for being wrong, nobodys perfect!! Like I also said yesterday, weather can be unpredictable sometimes especially in the US and tropics it seems.
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Just watch these pop-ups....will cool ya right down :P

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We have had barely a sprinkle in the davie plantation area so much for the 40% thingy
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T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C3
MARK
15.43N/107.6W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
U mean Trolls like Sheening that just like to rile you guys up..
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Very strange... The NWS said that moisture over Central and South Florida is quite a bit higher today than yesterday, and the subsidence layer is gone, as well as cooling temps in the mid levels, all that should fave favored more thunderstorms today but the coverage is really no higher than yesterday so far...
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Quoting Jax82:
Its pretty normal for this blog: My way, or the highway. Very few admit defeat. As for Adrian, I personalize believe it stunned a lot of folks. And even looking at the TCHP it didnt warrant that much RI but it did anyways. Thankfully this little monster isnt going to affect anything but ships.

TCHP depends both on SST and temperature with depth, areas that are more shallow do not give a proper TCHP. The 30-31C SST didn't show up as much but there was basically a lot less cool water to up-well, and more hot water being pulled horizontally. I had a feeling that it would hit cat 2 with a small chance of cat 3, but didn't expect the RI that occurred.

As for 94L, I posted this on the last blog; but nothing is likely to form, shear is too high and the ULL will be moving N/NE with it. After that though I think something will take advantage of the low shear and SST anomalies.
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Quoting Grothar:


I heard that!


Was the only way I could get you up !! ~~~~~~:]
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Quoting Grothar:


I heard that!


guilty conscience?
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extreme west coast of florida mainly getting some sea-breeze collisionsLink, heading west

Quoting DocNDswamp:
#134 RTL,
Yep, was a good call by Bitmap...

And on the plus side, at least his contribution here was acknowledged...

Y'all have a good evening...


DOC.... thanks for the post earlier. you really bring the noise when you post. very infomative
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134. I agree. This blog has a very "holier than thou" attitude, and the views of most new or non-regular posters are often discarded. Probably because of the high troll level in here.
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#134 RTL,
Yep, was a good call by Bitmap...

And on the plus side, at least his contribution here was acknowledged...

Y'all have a good evening...
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Welcome to you, WCFL.....and please post more often. As you already know by lurking, there are young, old, male and females posters here which makes for some good diversity.....also...some very old....and very young...:)


I heard that!
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Just my 2 cents.....

I see two phenomena occurring in this instance. 1. There is a pecking-order based on date joined and # of posts. 2. Trolls are attracted to this blog like flies to ..... a dead fish, so members here tend to be a little harsh with newcomers. Discussing statements made by bloggers is pretty much the purpose of this place so I don't have a problem with that. The ridiculing of opinions that are backed up by reasonable data is what needs to be curtailed.
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Quoting WestCentralFL:
Hi All,

I am a longtime lurker and thoroughly enjoy reading this tropical weather blog. I find the information educational for the most part, and find that the members have a great sense of humor. Hopefully I will get more time to post, but I just wanted to say "thanks" to all of you and keep up the good work!


Welcome to you, WCFL.....and please post more often. As you already know by lurking, there are young, old, male and females posters here which makes for some good diversity.....also...some very old....and very young...:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTLSNK:
I have an interesting report on Hurricane Adrian and the conduct and behavioral tendencies of members of this website.

On Dr. Master's blog of June 08, 2011, on page 11, post 547 that evening, a new blogger named Bitmap7 downloaded the following comment:

"I call cat3 on Adrian by 8:00 am tomorrow. Thunderstorms popping up in the center like crazy, and its dmin."

On page 12 he began to be questioned and even threatened to be ignored by one blogger for giving his opinion in his comment. You can go back two blogs and read them for yourselves, but allow me to give you a guide:

555 - AussieStorm
559 - taco2me61
569 - AussieStorm
575 - Levi32
592 - AussieStorm
593 - Hurrykane
594 - Levi32

It continued on the next page, page 13:

602 - Levi32
610 - AussieStorm
611 - Levi32
614 - AussieStorm

On page 13, in his post 621, Bitmap7 tried to explain to "The Experts" why he felt Adrian had a chance to fight off the dry air that was ahead of the storm. He cited the report of the NASA Hurricane Science Research Program concerning what they had discovered about the convective ring feature in storms that had rapid intensification capabilities.

Bitmap7 finally gave up trying to swim upstream against the "Experts" vast knowledge and left.

Let us now fast forward to the very next morning, and see what happened. This was a portion of the NHC report on poor little Adrian:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

Holy Hurricane Batman, did the NHC just say that ADRIAN IS A CAT 3 AT 8:00 HRS?

Gee, isn't that what Bitmap7 said last night?

I have read every comment on the blog for the last two days. I have yet to see anyone give credit to this new blogger for his excellent call on Wed night. Nor have I seen any one apologize.

Bitmap7, if you are still lurking on this blog, what we normally do in a case like this is give you verbal kudo's for your well thought out and reasoned and studied call.

Let me also apologize to you for the treatment you received and advise you not to give up on something that you are obviously very good at.

For the rest of you in this report: shame on you.



+20000 we can all use a lil checks and balances in life. Kudos
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTLSNK:
I have an interesting report on Hurricane Adrian and the conduct and behavioral tendencies of members of this website.

On Dr. Master's blog of June 08, 2011, on page 11, post 547 that evening, a new blogger named Bitmap7 downloaded the following comment:

"I call cat3 on Adrian by 8:00 am tomorrow. Thunderstorms popping up in the center like crazy, and its dmin."

On page 12 he began to be questioned and even threatened to be ignored by one blogger for giving his opinion in his comment. You can go back two blogs and read them for yourselves, but allow me to give you a guide:

555 - AussieStorm
559 - taco2me61
569 - AussieStorm
575 - Levi32
592 - AussieStorm
593 - Hurrykane
594 - Levi32

It continued on the next page, page 13:

602 - Levi32
610 - AussieStorm
611 - Levi32
614 - AussieStorm

On page 13, in his post 621, Bitmap7 tried to explain to "The Experts" why he felt Adrian had a chance to fight off the dry air that was ahead of the storm. He cited the report of the NASA Hurricane Science Research Program concerning what they had discovered about the convective ring feature in storms that had rapid intensification capabilities.

Bitmap7 finally gave up trying to swim upstream against the "Experts" vast knowledge and left.

Let us now fast forward to the very next morning, and see what happened. This was a portion of the NHC report on poor little Adrian:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

Holy Hurricane Batman, did the NHC just say that ADRIAN IS A CAT 3 AT 8:00 HRS?

Gee, isn't that what Bitmap7 said last night?

I have read every comment on the blog for the last two days. I have yet to see anyone give credit to this new blogger for his excellent call on Wed night. Nor have I seen any one apologize.

Bitmap7, if you are still lurking on this blog, what we normally do in a case like this is give you verbal kudo's for your well thought out and reasoned and studied call.

Let me also apologize to you for the treatment you received and advise you not to give up on something that you are obviously very good at.

For the rest of you in this report: shame on you.
This is the internet! I'll leave it at that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTLSNK:
I have an interesting report on Hurricane Adrian and the conduct and behavioral tendencies of members of this website.

On Dr. Master's blog of June 08, 2011, on page 11, post 547 that evening, a new blogger named Bitmap7 downloaded the following comment:

"I call cat3 on Adrian by 8:00 am tomorrow. Thunderstorms popping up in the center like crazy, and its dmin."

On page 12 he began to be questioned and even threatened to be ignored by one blogger for giving his opinion in his comment. You can go back two blogs and read them for yourselves, but allow me to give you a guide:

555 - AussieStorm
559 - taco2me61
569 - AussieStorm
575 - Levi32
592 - AussieStorm
593 - Hurrykane
594 - Levi32

It continued on the next page, page 13:

602 - Levi32
610 - AussieStorm
611 - Levi32
614 - AussieStorm

On page 13, in his post 621, Bitmap7 tried to explain to "The Experts" why he felt Adrian had a chance to fight off the dry air that was ahead of the storm. He cited the report of the NASA Hurricane Science Research Program concerning what they had discovered about the convective ring feature in storms that had rapid intensification capabilities.

Bitmap7 finally gave up trying to swim upstream against the "Experts" vast knowledge and left.

Let us now fast forward to the very next morning, and see what happened. This was a portion of the NHC report on poor little Adrian:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

Holy Hurricane Batman, did the NHC just say that ADRIAN IS A CAT 3 AT 8:00 HRS?

Gee, isn't that what Bitmap7 said last night?

I have read every comment on the blog for the last two days. I have yet to see anyone give credit to this new blogger for his excellent call on Wed night. Nor have I seen any one apologize.

Bitmap7, if you are still lurking on this blog, what we normally do in a case like this is give you verbal kudo's for your well thought out and reasoned and studied call.

Let me also apologize to you for the treatment you received and advise you not to give up on something that you are obviously very good at.

For the rest of you in this report: shame on you.


boo hoo... its a internet blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
145. DEKRE
Quoting BobinTampa:
134. I believe Levi has already admitted his mistake on this one.



The question is not the mistake but the arrogance of the quoted commentators
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
134 RTLSNK "For the rest of you in this report: shame on you."

Just goes to show, never discuss weather in polite company. Stick to safe topics like sex, politics, and religion.
On the other hand... if ya can't stand the heat, stay outta predictions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
143. Jax82
Its pretty normal for this blog: My way, or the highway. Very few admit defeat. As for Adrian, I personally believe it stunned a lot of folks. And even looking at the TCHP it didnt warrant that much RI but it did anyways. Thankfully this little monster isnt going to affect anything but ships.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Quoting Levi32:
134.

I recall nothing as intense as you are trying to describe. I personally was discussing the forecast with Bitmap, which is allowed here. Grats to him for a good call. I hope you are satisfied.


I remember it only being Aussiestorm who was being very negative and shooting the poor guy down and not Levi..but yeah I thought Aussie's attack on Bitmap7 was something out of high school..and no he has not yet apologized and gave credit..
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Hi All,

I am a longtime lurker and thoroughly enjoy reading this tropical weather blog. I find the information educational for the most part, and find that the members have a great sense of humor. Hopefully I will get more time to post, but I just wanted to say "thanks" to all of you and keep up the good work!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
134. I believe Levi has already admitted his mistake on this one.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
In case you missed it...

The Hurricanes Of 2004

...behind the scenes emergency management perspective
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
134.

I recall nothing as heated as you are trying to describe. I personally was discussing the forecast with Bitmap, which is allowed here. Grats to him for a good call. I hope you are satisfied.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting RTLSNK:
I have an interesting report on Hurricane Adrian and the conduct and behavioral tendencies of members of this website.

On Dr. Master's blog of June 08, 2011, on page 11, post 547 that evening, a new blogger named ......


For me, this comment is an Excellent Social behaviour observation of the blog.... In my opinion, with an Excellent conclusion....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
way to go RTL call em out...
I have made a few comments on observations and have been shushed by the experts on here also, this is a tropical weather blog and alot of us read other blogs and study weather as a hobby. I get my info from many sources and some of the guys and gals here are very good and very helpful so long as you don't question their reasoning......
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Quoting sonofagunn:
A tiny rope tornado appeared under one of the storms West of Tampa today around 2:30 PM. It only lasted 3-4 minutes and never came close to the ground. Very unusual, and interesting to see in such a small storm.


If a vortex did not make contact with the ground, that would be a funnel cloud.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1951
I have an interesting report on Hurricane Adrian and the conduct and behavioral tendencies of members of this website.

On Dr. Master's blog of June 08, 2011, on page 11, post 547 that evening, a new blogger named Bitmap7 downloaded the following comment:

"I call cat3 on Adrian by 8:00 am tomorrow. Thunderstorms popping up in the center like crazy, and its dmin."

On page 12 he began to be questioned and even threatened to be ignored by one blogger for giving his opinion in his comment. You can go back two blogs and read them for yourselves, but allow me to give you a guide:

555 - AussieStorm
559 - taco2me61
569 - AussieStorm
575 - Levi32
592 - AussieStorm
593 - Hurrykane
594 - Levi32

It continued on the next page, page 13:

602 - Levi32
610 - AussieStorm
611 - Levi32
614 - AussieStorm

On page 13, in his post 621, Bitmap7 tried to explain to "The Experts" why he felt Adrian had a chance to fight off the dry air that was ahead of the storm. He cited the report of the NASA Hurricane Science Research Program concerning what they had discovered about the convective ring feature in storms that had rapid intensification capabilities.

Bitmap7 finally gave up trying to swim upstream against the "Experts" vast knowledge and left.

Let us now fast forward to the very next morning, and see what happened. This was a portion of the NHC report on poor little Adrian:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

Holy Hurricane Batman, did the NHC just say that ADRIAN IS A CAT 3 AT 8:00 HRS?

Gee, isn't that what Bitmap7 said last night?

I have read every comment on the blog for the last two days. I have yet to see anyone give credit to this new blogger for his excellent call on Wed night. Nor have I seen any one apologize.

Bitmap7, if you are still lurking on this blog, what we normally do in a case like this is give you verbal kudo's for your well thought out and reasoned and studied call.

Let me also apologize to you for the treatment you received and advise you not to give up on something that you are obviously very good at.

For the rest of you in this report: shame on you.
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Quoting blsealevel:


look out Portugal!
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Earth from Space: A Gush of Volcanic Gas


This image shows the huge plume of sulphur dioxide that spewed from Chile’s Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex, which lies in the Andes about 600 km south of Santiago. It was generated on 6 June using data from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer on the MetOp-A satellite and represents sulphur dioxide concentrations within the full vertical column of atmosphere. As the eruption continued, the image shows how strong winds initially swept the broad plume of sulphur dioxide northwards and then eastwards across Argentina and out over the southern Atlantic Ocean. The MetOp programme was jointly established by ESA and Eumetsat and forms the space segment of Eumetsat’s Polar System. (Credit: Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB))

ScienceDaily (June 10, 2011) — A new image shows the huge plume of sulphur dioxide that spewed from Chile’s Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex, which lies in the Andes about 600 km south of Santiago.

After lying dormant for more than 50 years, a series of rumbling earthquakes signalled the beginnings of this major volcanic eruption. On 4 June, a fissure opened, sending a towering plume of volcanic ash and gas over 10 km high.

The image was generated on 6 June using.....

Link
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in Wales

Summer snow falls on summit of Snowdon
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I know, and Texas cant even get a pop-up....but I'm staying optimistic :)



I'm trying but my lawn is sooooo parched!! :(

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Quoting wxhatt:


We have been reduced to a few pop-up late day showers in the drought stricken southeast...


I know, and Texas cant even get a pop-up....but I'm staying optimistic :)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.