Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

Share this Blog
5
+

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 229 - 179

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Quoting sammywammybamy:
This will not end well.



heh heh heh LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Here is my advice for new members. Although I may not be the most popular poster here I have been around for a long time on here. Here are a few things to keep in mind for your first tropical season as a member here:

1. Give your opinion on tropical storms with backup... find specific data to back up your forecasters.

2. Ask questions.. even if you are the lead forecaster at National Hurricane Center... ask questions to show your genuine interest in other peoples opinions.

3. Stand up for yourself but don't resort to personal attacks.... defend your forecast don't put down your "opponent"

4. Read.... Read.... Read.... Read.... Read... find out what other people are saying don't try to control the conversation at all times.

5. Admit when you are wrong... if you mess up badly on a forecast... find out why and explain where you messed up... this will show that you are human just like the rest of us.

6. Be humble when you are right. Even if you got your forecast 100% right compliment someone else who also got the forecast right or don't say anything about your own forecast.

7. Post on other blogs in the same matter to help increase your post count and your reputation on the board.

8. Write your own blogs about the tropical system.. and keep it updated even if no one comments (many people read them even if no one comments)

9. Don't post links to your own website on here (you will be gone before you can create any reputation).

10. And finally... don't let people get on your nerves... there will always be bickering but you don't have to be a part of it.


Thanks for reading this post of mine


KoritheMan likes this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C3
MARK
15.47N/108.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53811


here is a longer loop of that same area... kind of does look cool
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Here is my advice for new members. Although I may not be the most popular poster here I have been around for a long time on here. Here are a few things to keep in mind for your first tropical season as a member here:

1. Give your opinion on tropical storms with backup... find specific data to back up your forecasters.

2. Ask questions.. even if you are the lead forecaster at National Hurricane Center... ask questions to show your genuine interest in other peoples opinions.

3. Stand up for yourself but don't resort to personal attacks.... defend your forecast don't put down your "opponent"

4. Read.... Read.... Read.... Read.... Read... find out what other people are saying don't try to control the conversation at all times.

5. Admit when you are wrong... if you mess up badly on a forecast... find out why and explain where you messed up... this will show that you are human just like the rest of us.

6. Be humble when you are right. Even if you got your forecast 100% right compliment someone else who also got the forecast right or don't say anything about your own forecast.

7. Post on other blogs in the same matter to help increase your post count and your reputation on the board.

8. Write your own blogs about the tropical system.. and keep it updated even if no one comments (many people read them even if no one comments)

9. Don't post links to your own website on here (you will be gone before you can create any reputation).

10. And finally... don't let people get on your nerves... there will always be bickering but you don't have to be a part of it.


Thanks for reading this post of mine




well said
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have some painfully slow storms east of here in Richmond, there are also a lot of gust fronts, and as they move west, storms form in behind it. Kinda cool. And get this, the storms are moving east at 5 mph. Flood advisory is in effect for some of these storms.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wtf is going on here? Geez. This blog is long past its heyday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I question the maturity of this blog sometimes.

It really makes me upset when I am trying to read the blog and I see posts of trolls following each other back and forth.

This is a meteorology blog, for Gods sake.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is my advice for new members. Although I may not be the most popular poster here I have been around for a long time on here. Here are a few things to keep in mind for your first tropical season as a member here:

1. Give your opinion on tropical storms with backup... find specific data to back up your forecasters.

2. Ask questions.. even if you are the lead forecaster at National Hurricane Center... ask questions to show your genuine interest in other peoples opinions.

3. Stand up for yourself but don't resort to personal attacks.... defend your forecast don't put down your "opponent"

4. Read.... Read.... Read.... Read.... Read... find out what other people are saying don't try to control the conversation at all times.

5. Admit when you are wrong... if you mess up badly on a forecast... find out why and explain where you messed up... this will show that you are human just like the rest of us.

6. Be humble when you are right. Even if you got your forecast 100% right compliment someone else who also got the forecast right or don't say anything about your own forecast.

7. Post on other blogs in the same matter to help increase your post count and your reputation on the board.

8. Write your own blogs about the tropical system.. and keep it updated even if no one comments (many people read them even if no one comments)

9. Don't post links to your own website on here (you will be gone before you can create any reputation).

10. And finally... don't let people get on your nerves... there will always be bickering but you don't have to be a part of it.


Thanks for reading this post of mine
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
Quoting caneswatch:


Ignore and report Taz.


Don't advise people to report and ban others, if they have a problem with the user they'll be intelligent enough to do it themselves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rough crowd tonight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"I AM NOT A TROLL"
I believe that was a quite from Tricky Dick.. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&pr oduct=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Raining in Chokoloskee....not quite getting to downtown Naples yet.....But I can smell it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
211. j2008
Well I'm out, I'm getting sick of this fighting. I'll be back tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


You think?




LOL LOL LOL




yup we do
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




OMG



we got trolls on the blog


Ignore and report, Taz.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




OMG



we got trolls on the blog


You think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I fear this may be a tad hypocritical...


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:





can you plzs go back too school and larn how too spell i dont even under stan what you are saying





I fear this may be a tad hypocritical...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


What I'm sick of is people bashing real meteorologists and real experts, I think we got sore losers who are afraid of all the school it takes to get their so they jealously sit around on the internet bashing the NWS, and the NHC all day, or other meteorologists.

If may comments get removed for talking like this again, I don't care. I'll stand for whats right.


I am also sick of that. I mean if there's a extremely definitive reason why, then I can see. If it's often or constant, like I see on here, it gets real annoying.

They know what they're doing about 99% of the time. They worked hard to get there, and they do their jobs well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:





That music was a little after my time, but it was great. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
198. j2008
So I'm guessing that we are all willing to respect others ideas when they share them, and to give our feedback respectfully but most of all to keep this a civilized blog where everyone is welcome to share their ideas about the tropics and other weather related topics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


What I'm sick of is people bashing real meteorologists and real experts, I think we got sore losers who are afraid of all the school it takes to get their so they jealously sit around on the internet bashing the NWS, and the NHC all day, or other meteorologists.

If my comments get removed for talking like this again, I don't care. I'll stand for whats right.


+1000
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This blog is getting absurd. People need to stop talking about what other people have said and trying to start trouble. It's a weather blog, I'm sure there are plenty of other blogs where you can have a nice argument if that's what you're after.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
um....

Sheening has become a verb on social networks.
It means: Partying, questionable decision making and
public humiliation.
The title of the article was "Done any Sheening today?"
thanks....(dang, I'm so old!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


No offense to anyone I mention, but Levi is stubborn and hardheaded when it comes to others and their forecasts. I'm surprised most of you people....oh nevermind, i'm not getting myself in trouble.

If you're an expert, I expect you to be a nice and respectful person, like Grothar for example, and not have a "Oh i'm right, you're wrong!" attitude. Be nice and respectful to others' forecasts.


What I'm sick of is people bashing real meteorologists and real experts, I think we got sore losers who are afraid of all the school it takes to get their so they jealously sit around on the internet bashing the NWS, and the NHC all day, or other meteorologists.

If my comments get removed for talking like this again, I don't care. I'll stand for whats right.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7440
um....

Sheening has become a verb on social networks.
It means: Partying, questionable decision making and
public humiliation.
The title of the article was "Done any Sheening today?"

http://wordsmith.org/board/ubbthreads.php?ubb=sho wflat&Number=198130
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
him some in tells me JFV is on here some here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting j2008:

And If you recall I also stated that it would reach cat 3. Just to let you know everyones perspective is welcome here, so lets all listen to each other and have a civilized blog and not blame people for being wrong, nobodys perfect!! Like I also said yesterday, weather can be unpredictable sometimes especially in the US and tropics it seems.


No offense to anyone I mention, but Levi is stubborn and hardheaded when it comes to others and their forecasts. I'm surprised most of you people....oh nevermind, i'm not getting myself in trouble.

If you're an expert, I expect you to be a nice and respectful person, like Grothar for example, and not have a "Oh i'm right, you're wrong!" attitude. Be nice and respectful to others' forecasts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53811
As some of you may remember, a couple of year ago, we had a troll calling her/himself TropicalAmanda. Posing as a teenage girl, this person took a lot of us in...then it turned out that is was all a fake.

That left a bad taste in our mouths and everyone was naturally suspicious of new blog members.

Along came a guy named Hurristat who seemed to know way too much about weather for a teenage boy. Red flags shot up everywhere and he was not well treated by the regulars.

Well, I took a chance. I did a post explaining to him the reasons for the suspicion. I asked him to be a little less brash in his posts as a new blogger. I also asked that the older bloggers be a little more patient and, despite the mood of distrust that they not pounce on every new blogger that showed up. Still have faith that there may still be some talented young bloggers signing up.

I was backedup up and given kudos from many of the regulars at the time. Hurristat also posted that he understood. He toned his post down a little and became a valued member of the WU community.

I don't think that he would mind me saying that he sent me a WUmail about a year later thanking me and Surfmom for giving him a break when he was a newbie.


I think that was the thrust of RTLSNK's post. That new or old, we need to treat eachother with more respect. In the end, the trolls will be sorted out. But, until then...give eachother the benefit of the doubt and common courtesy.

The blog will be better for it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I heard that!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 229 - 179

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.