Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Well, I gotta run, and no guarantee I'll be able to get on before 3 p.m. today.... :o(.... please keep the info coming. Guess I will catch up later...
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Barb, that image is pretty impressive.... looks like that plume will reach the Mediterranean within 24 hours...
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2027. Jax82
Here is a MODIS image yesterday of Chile's Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcano, if you think the AZ wildfire is smokin, imagine this cloud of smoke.

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Ash from Eritrean eruption to reach Eilat
By JPOST.COM STAFF
06/13/2011 14:26

Volcanic ash from an eruption in Eritrea will likely hit Eilat early Tuesday morning, Israel Radio reported Monday.

Authorities have said that the ash cloud will, by the time it reaches Israel's southern coastal town, have settled low enough to become a hazard for flight arrivals and departures.
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2025. emcf30
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2022. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:

A wish-casting model. lol


Remnants of La nina and an east coast low
A bit of spin and decent moisture associated with the wave approaching the Antilles...
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Poor Aussie.... looks like it's hanging about...
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UCambridge has a brief report....
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Quoting hydrus:
GFS 384 hours..lol..

A wish-casting model. lol

Quoting BahaHurican:
We want 2 know y u r stealing r rain.... we need it back!

east coast low.


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2018. hydrus
GFS 384 hours..lol..
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Its been raining here since Friday afternoon, I wish it would b****y stop.
We want 2 know y u r stealing r rain.... we need it back!
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That means scientists can analyse the content of the plume from space.... does this suggest phreatic to anybody? There's a lot of orange in that plume.
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Anybody else play around with the EUMETSAT ash imagery? It's pretty clear that whatever triggered it, the eruption started between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC....



The first two images show mainly red and orange colours, but by the third image the leading edge of the plume was turning green.

According to the EUMETSAT guide, the red colours are ash and the green colours are SO2....



[Orange is cold thick high level clouds; black=cirrus/contrail type clouds.]
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if their grass is green write them a ticket e cen florida
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Quoting largeeyes:
It rained last night!!! WOOOOOT!

Its been raining here since Friday afternoon, I wish it would b****y stop.
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2011. FLdewey
NATIONAL CENTER FOR DEWEY'S YARD
SYNOPSIS FOR DEWEY'S YARD
630 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

SYNOPSIS...DEWEY'S YARD WILL REMAIN CRISPY AND REQUIRE MANUAL IRRIGATION FOR MANY DAYS TO COME. DEWEY WILL RESPECT THE SJWMD AND ONLY WATER ON ALLOWED DAYS... AT LEAST DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

It actually might rain on the east coast today... not holding ma breath.
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It rained last night!!! WOOOOOT!
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2009. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SE AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK THEN EXPAND BASIN WIDE
LATE FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARDS AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. A SECOND ENERGETIC
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY TUE THEN MOVE
W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY WED...REACH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THU AND MOVE TO ALONG 80W LATE FRI.
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2008. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1017 MB HIGH ACROSS THE NE GULF EXTENDING W-NW
INTO SE TEXAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WED THEN
COLLAPSE ACROSS THE E GULF THU AS HIGH PRES RIDGES FROM THE SW N
ATLC W-SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN THROUGH FRI.



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Good Morning to all. Update from Texas: Medium range models show very little wavering in the high pressure cell aloft through the end of June, which could spell disaster for agriculture. And, as already dry soils get even drier, it becomes more difficult to break away from the 100s. We'll have to keep an eye on the tropics for some possible relief. Computer models do hint at development in the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf for the final week of the month.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Aussie. This is off topic but just thought I would let you know. Australian marathon swimmer Penny Palfrey set a world record for swimming 68 miles between Little Cayman and Grand Cayman. It took her almost 41 hours to complete the swim.

Cool, Didn't know that. Thanks.
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Good morning to all. The ash plume continues to look strong.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

I spoke to a friend of mine. He is from Eritrea, I asked him about the quakes and eruption he had no idea. Even the Eritrean news have nothing on it.
Good morning Aussie. This is off topic but just thought I would let you know. Australian marathon swimmer Penny Palfrey set a world record for swimming 68 miles between Little Cayman and Grand Cayman. It took her almost 41 hours to complete the swim.
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EUMETSAT ASH CHANNEL SATELLITE

From the EUMETSAT site:
Ash is an RGB composite based upon infrared channel data from the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. It is designed to detect ash and sulphur dioxide (SO2) from volcanic eruptions which can be used for the provision of warnings to aviation authorities. The Ash RGB is composed from data from a combination of the SEVIRI IR8.7, IR10.8 and IR12.0 channels.

Link
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Twitter: Eritrea
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2011 Eritrean eruption
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2000. IKE
Atlantic is in snooze mode. I don't see anything on the GFS or ECMWF for the 7-10 days affecting the lower 48.

0-0-0 sleeps on.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Only source I could find was the same we've been using all night, earthquake-reports.com. I sure hope the first world news about this eruption isn't "East African Air Crash Blamed on Unknown Volcanic Eruption"..... :o(


Well, there's at least a volcanic ash advisory for aircraft.

Quoting AussieStorm:

I spoke to a friend of mine. He is from Eritrea, I asked him about the quakes and eruption he had no idea. Even the Eritrean news have nothing on it.


Yeah. It's on the border with Ethiopia and nothing seems to be from them, either. Nothing from the MSM.

Long live the internet!
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1998. IKE

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Only source I could find was the same we've been using all night, earthquake-reports.com. I sure hope the first world news about this eruption isn't "East African Air Crash Blamed on Unknown Volcanic Eruption"..... :o(
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Quoting Cotillion:
What's more worrying is the immediate local area. There's nothing official beyond the VAAC in regards to aviation and nothing from the authorities. You wonder if anyone in that area got any warning at all.

It did seem a bit of a sudden eruption.

I spoke to a friend of mine. He is from Eritrea, I asked him about the quakes and eruption he had no idea. Even the Eritrean news have nothing on it.
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What's more worrying is the immediate local area. There's nothing official beyond the VAAC in regards to aviation and nothing from the authorities. You wonder if anyone in that area got any warning at all.

It did seem a bit of a sudden eruption.
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Qantas resumes Melbourne flights as volcanic ash cloud splits up along southeastern Australia


MASSIVE "clumps" of volcanic ash will still cover all of Tasmania, as well as Adelaide and large parts of South Australia tomorrow and may stay for several days.

But Dr Andrew Tupper, manager of the federal government's Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in Darwin, said Melbourne's skies are expected to have become clear by early tomorrow morning.

Dr Tupper said reports of a second plume were innaccurate.

He said that in fact the plume from the eruption of Chile's Cordon Caulle volcano on June 4 had been broken up into `clumps' by various winds as it has travelled around the earth's stratosphere.

``It's not one big plume anymore, there are multiple areas of ash. There's stuff everywhere.

``There are six or seven major clumps this evening.''

Dr Tupper said forecasting where the ash would be tomorrow was difficult because it had split into clumps, but it was moving across Adelaide last night and would stay over the South Australian capital tomorrow.
The plume would only skirt far south western NSW, but all of Tasmania will be part of the contamination zone tomorrow.

``It looks like Tasmania will be disrupted for the next few days,'' he said.

Dr Tupper said the ash was between eight and 11 kilometres high.

``It is up to the airlines to make their decisions about flying,'' he said.

``The ash will slowly disperse but it also may come around again over Australia.''

The news comes as flights have resumed from Melbourne Airport, as experts warned another volcanic ash cloud could hit in 48 hours.

Up to 60,000 passengers have been stranded across Australia and New Zealand as a volcanic ash plume from a Chilean volcano forced the cancellations of more than 250 flights.

This afternoon, airlines assessing the situation had given the all-clear for flights to resume out of Melbourne Airport.
Meanwhile, airlines are battling to clear a huge backlog of passengers stranded by volcanic ash as another plume drifts our way.

While many flights have resumed at Melbourne Airport, experts have warned another volcanic ash cloud could hit in 48 hours.

Up to 60,000 passengers were stranded across Australia and New Zealand as a volcanic ash plume from a Chilean volcano forced the cancellations of up to 280 flights.

This afternoon, Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin had given the all-clear for flights to resume out of Melbourne Airport, with Tiger Airways set to resume flights just after 5pm.

Airservices Australia said the ash cloud from Chile's Puyehue volcano, which erupted more than a week ago, was completely covering Tasmania and parts of Victoria, including Melbourne.

Qantas resumed flights to and from Melbourne at 1pm, while services to Tasmania and New Zealand remain on hold.

Virgin Australia resumed flights to and from Hobart about 11am.

Airlines are now faced with a massive backlog of passengers, with Qantas considering extra flights - and possibly using 747 jumbo jets - to help carry the extra load.

Qantas spokeswoman Olivia Wirth expected clearing the backlog would “take some time” even though it was giving priority to those who had been booked on cancelled flights.

Passengers would be waiting until Wednesday to board flights.

Qantas will schedule extra services on tonight and Tuesday to start moving stranded passengers out of Melbourne.

“It could take a number of days (to clear the backlog) depending on when airspace in Tasmania and New Zealand opens up,'' a Qantas spokeswoman was quoted as saying.

Ms Wirth said the airline had lifted restrictions on all flights out of Melbourne except those to and from Tasmania and New Zealand.

A Virgin Australia spokeswoman said it expected it would take at least 24 hours to help stranded passengers and the airline would be consolidating its flights in an attempt to get as many passengers away as possible.

Virgin resumed Melbourne flights at 7am but said about 14,000 people were affected by 53 domestic and eight international cancellations over the past two days.

Tiger Airways spokeswoman Vanessa Regan said the airline had decided to cancel all Australian flights up until 5pm.

Tiger, which is based in Melbourne, has been hit hard by disruptions with most of its fleet flying in or out of Tullamarine.

As a result about half the airline's 60 daily flights were cancelle.3d, throwing the travel plans of about 5000 people into disarray.

Jetstar cancelled 82 flights today with a spokesman saying 22,000 passengers had been affected since aircraft were grounded.

The cancellations affected flights to and from New Zealand, Tasmania and Melbourne.

The Qantas website stated today: "Volcanic ash from the eruption of Mt Puyehue Cordon Caulle volcano in Chile, continues to cause significant flight disruptions to the Qantas network.

"The Australian Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) has advised airspace over Tasmania, Melbourne and New Zealand has been affected.

"At Qantas safety is our first priority and a number of flights have been cancelled or rerouted to avoid the volcanic ash cloud.

"Qantas will resume flights to and from Melbourne from 1.00pm Monday 13 June. However flights to and from New Zealand and Tasmania remain suspended for the duration of Monday 13 June.

'Customers are advised to refer to our real time Flight Status page for the latest up-to-the minute information on specific flights.

"Qantas sincerely regrets the inconvenience caused by these weather conditions and thanks customers for their patience."

Qantas announced the resumption of services to passengers in its Melbourne terminal at noon, with flight 683 to Adelaide and flight 616 to Brisbane the first flights to leave.

Jetstar flights to Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth all had gates listed as of midday today.

Virgin Australia resumed some of its flights this morning.

But while stranded holiday makers have been left to their own devices after 256 flights were cancelled, an emergency air force flight was dispatched to pick up stranded MPs in Tasmania today and take them to Canberra for the sitting of Federal Parliament tomorrow.

Tiger Airways Australia has cancelled all flights until 5pm on Monday, as the volcanic ash cloud across south eastern Australia continues to cause lengthy delays for airline travellers.

A Tiger Airways spokeswoman said about 30 of Tiger's 60 daily flights had been cancelled, affecting about 5000 passengers.

The airline had originally cancelled flights until 1pm on Monday.

"We're not flying any flights until 5pm," spokeswoman Vanessa Regan said.

The majority of Tiger's flights are in and out of Melbourne.

Supervising meteorologist at the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in Darwin, Gordon Jackson, said the cloud currently over Victoria and Tasmania would remain for the next 12 to 36 hours.

"It's in an area where there is very little wind therefore it's not going to be moving northward, so (it will be) moving to the east and to the west and spreading out a bit," he said.

Mr Jackson said the centre was monitoring a second ash plume hovering over the ocean south of Australia.

"It depends on how the wind is moving. It may actually be brought up over Tasmania and Victoria in 48 hours," he said.

Virgin resumed flights to Melbourne, Tasmania and New Zealand this morning.

All Qantas flights in and out of Tasmania and New Zealand remain cancelled for the rest of today due to the danger posed by the Chilean volcano ash cloud.

While some passengers said they understood the cancellations were for safety reasons, most were annoyed at a lack of communication from the airlines.

Maria Tsatsaris and her daughter Stacy flew up to Sydney for a hairdressing convention and are due to return to Melbourne on a 4pm flight today.

Ms Tsatsaris said she didn't hear about any problems until a waiter told her at a restuarant last night.

She said she wanted to get to the airport early today so she could make alternative plans if she had to.

"I haven't heard anything from them (Qantas)," Ms Tsatsaris said.

"I understand they're doing it for safety reasons, but they have to communicate with their passengers. That's been a big disappointment."

She said if the next flight is cancelled she would hire a car and drive back to Melbourne, but wondered if Qantas would cover the costs.

Qantas are offering people who don't live in Sydney, accommodation, cab fares and refunds.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has been caught in the ash cloud scare with his flight from Nauru forced to divert to Brisbane.

The pilot of Mr Abbott's charter jet warned other planes had been brought down in the past by volcanic eruptions and they cited a near miss with a British Airways flight over Indonesia.

Mr Abbott's plane will land in Brisbane at about 1.30pm, refuel and attempt to fly at a low altitude to Canberra.

In a statement released this morning Qantas said three international services have also been cancelled to Buenos Aires and Los Angeles.

A spokesman said more than 10,000 passengers had been affected by the flight cancellations over the last two days, a number that is now expected to increase.

He said passengers should check the Qantas website for further information on their flights.

Meanwhile, the referees for tonight's NRL clash between the Storm and Roosters are hitting the road in a bid to make it to Melbourne in time.

The five-man crew of referees Gavin Badger and Tony De Las Heras, touch judges Jeff Younis and Adam Reid and video ref Bernard Sutton were forced to board a flight to Albury and then drive to Melbourne.

The NRL is confident that they will make it in plenty of time for the 7pm kickoff at AAMI Stadium.

However, the Toyota Cup curtainraiser has been cancelled because the Roosters team has been stranded in Sydney by the airline chaos.

The NRL said it is planning to reschedule the match at an appropriate time.

The Wests Tigers have also been stranded in New Zealand by the ash cloud from the Cordon Caulle volcano that has hit airline services from New Zealand, Tasmania and in and out of Melbourne.

The team had another flight cancelled today and currently have no idea about when they will be flying out of Auckland but the NRL is hopeful they will be able to return to Australia tomorrow.
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Thanks, Aussie. A bit more than I remembered.

Still, working off the 'much', which I suppose is subjective, but the point remains the same. You need a really big eruption to drastically drop temperatures. However, as Neapolitan said up above, it does depend on a few factors.

Dubbi's last big eruption in 1861 according to Smithsonian was a 3. Peléan, perhaps. It does have a question mark, though. Of course, if it's Nabro, we've no idea on any track record.

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Christchurch


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1991. IKE

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Ike. Looks like u guys may get some rain this week....
It poured yesterday...south of me...at my mom's house.

I got zilch.


Quoting aquak9:
A wise pathologist once told me "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Look for the haystack, first."

Hi ike. You're running about 3º-5º higher than me all week. Like it really makes a difference, between 98º and 101º.
But that 5mph breeze this afternoon should cool it down:)
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Quoting Cotillion:


Unlikely. Even if it reached Pinatubo levels (which doesn't seem so), then it only cooled the worldwide temperature by 0.2C to 0.4C. Enough to make a difference, yes, but not utterly drastic.

You'd need to reach Tambora levels to get 'much cooler' temperatures (VEI7).

Still, it's a significant eruption for the area. Africa doesn't get many, though you feel the African Rift Zone is going to get more active in the next centuries to come.

After effects of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption

The powerful eruption of such an enormous volume of lava and ash injected significant quantities of aerosols and dust into the stratosphere. Sulfur dioxide oxidised in the atmosphere to produce a haze of sulfuric acid droplets, which gradually spread throughout the stratosphere over the year following the eruption. The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is thought to have been the largest since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883, with a total mass of SO2 of about 17 million tons being injected—the largest volume ever recorded by modern instruments.

This very large stratospheric injection resulted in a reduction in the normal amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface by roughly 10%. This led to a decrease in northern hemisphere average temperatures of 0.5–0.6 °C (0.9–1.1 °F), and a global fall of about 0.4 °C (0.7 °F). At the same time, the temperature in the stratosphere rose to several degrees higher than normal, due to absorption of radiation by the aerosol. The stratospheric cloud from the eruption persisted in the atmosphere for three years after the eruption.

The eruption had a significant effect on ozone levels in the atmosphere, causing a large increase in the destruction rate of ozone. Ozone levels at mid-latitudes reached their lowest recorded levels, while in the southern hemisphere winter of 1992, the ozone hole over Antarctica reached its largest ever size until then, with the fastest recorded ozone depletion rates. The eruption of Mount Hudson in Chile in August 1991 also contributed to southern hemisphere ozone destruction, with measurements showing a sharp decrease in ozone levels at the tropopause when the aerosol clouds from Pinatubo and Hudson arrived.

Another noticeable effect of the dust in the atmosphere was the appearance of lunar eclipses. Normally even at mid-eclipse, the moon is still visible although much dimmed, but in the year following the Pinatubo eruption, the moon was hardly visible at all during eclipses, due to much greater absorption of sunlight by dust in the atmosphere
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1989. aquak9
A wise pathologist once told me "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Look for the haystack, first."

Hi ike. You're running about 3º-5º higher than me all week. Like it really makes a difference, between 98º and 101º.
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Hey, Ike. Looks like u guys may get some rain this week....
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1987. IKE
Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after
1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as
high as 109. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph.
................................................. .................................................. .............

5 day QPF.....


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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
so if I get this right if it is indeed Nabro... we will have much cooler worldwide temperatures?


Unlikely. Even if it reached Pinatubo levels (which doesn't seem so as of now), then it only cooled the worldwide temperature by 0.2C to 0.4C. Enough to make a difference, yes, but not utterly drastic.

You'd need to reach Tambora levels to get 'much cooler' temperatures (VEI7).

Still, it's a significant eruption for the area. Africa doesn't get many, though you feel the African Rift Zone is going to get more active in the next centuries to come.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
so if I get this right if it is indeed Nabro... we will have much cooler worldwide temperatures?

Nabro and Dubbi are close enough together that any effects on weather will be the same regardless of which it was. Far more important is the type of material ejected--ash, smoke, or other gasses--the size of the particulates, the overall volume ejected, how high into the atmosphere it goes, and how long the eruption(s) last. A smaller eruption won't have much more effect than, say, a big forest fire, while a larger eruption can alter global weather patterns for several months or even years.

I look forward to finding out more today...
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Earthquake / Eruption summary : During the late afternoon and evening of June 12 2011, a series of moderate earthquakes struck the Afambo, Eritrea area. The moderate earthquakes were followed by 2 strong 5.7 earthquakes. Based on the earthquake pattern and the locations of the epicenter, volcano activity seemed imminent.

UPDATE 13/06 – 00:47 UTC : From now on we will have to wait for local reports, pictures, video’s etc.
We are very eager to get a confirmation that nobody was hurt and that no damage was inflicted during the earthquake and/or eruption.
Many scientists will board airplanes to take a close look at the volcano, take samples, etc.

UPDATE 13/06 – 00:15 UTC : This is a very recent Google earth picture (combined with satellite cloud image). The size of the cloud is 150 km on 50 km! (91 on 35 miles).




I hate to say it but that is not going to help the
piracy situation one bit.
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Morning all.

Seems pple r not expecting a non-active volcano to become active, so are assuming the historically active 1 to be the source. However, 1 would think there would be some more direct reports - eyewitness ones - by now...

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so if I get this right if it is indeed Nabro... we will have much cooler worldwide temperatures?
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1981. aquak9
good monday morning from NE Fla
hazy sky, smoky smell, predicted high of 98 today
(add 5 to that to get ike's predicted high)

From Nea's third link:
Following a potentially significant weather event, as there appears to have been a large volcanic eruption in Eritrea, with the ash cloud heading west towards Sudan. This appears to have happened in Nabro, a stratovolcano that has not erupted in historic times. (some early reports mention Dubbi or Dubbo to the north but satellite imagery confirms the source as Nabro)
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Still not much news, but the few sources there are say Dubbi, as others have noted. One even mentions a possible effect on tropical development:

Link

Link

...and this Irish weather forecast shows the uncertainty:

Link

FWIW, Dubbi sits about 15 miles northeast of Nabro's caldera, so the confusion, I think, understandable.
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Link

15 min interval satellite images of Ethiopian volcano
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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