Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Grothar...any plans for the weekend? Lawn bowling?

;)
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I am away from home, so i'm going to go enjoy my visit in Hutchinson Island. Be back later, and play nice!
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Quoting tropicfreak:
We have some painfully slow storms east of here in Richmond, there are also a lot of gust fronts, and as they move west, storms form in behind it. Kinda cool. And get this, the storms are moving east at 5 mph. Flood advisory is in effect for some of these storms.





yes, cool gust fronts. Thanks!
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Actually looking over Adrian more in detail it does actually appear that the eyewall is collapsing there is a weakness developing within it on the western side... I would say that the wind speeds are down to 85-90 knts at the next advisory
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spudsly....

:)
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Dont worry I have done had my bouts of people threatening and harassing me on here... I know the difference



That other was very good. What is the sign for plus?
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


My apologies, I completely misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were advising others to report Taz.


It's ok. I made an punctuation error, so I see the reason why you misunderstood.
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Quoting Grothar:
Rough crowd tonight!


Where's Pottery when you need him?
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Today i havent been able to get and read some good info on the tropics like i always do with all the trolling. Please stop it ignore and talk about the good stuff ;). Sorry for my inglish
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Quoting caneswatch:


I did direct it to him. Didn't you see it?



My apologies, I completely misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were advising others to report Taz.
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Ok now just to quote a great person " Cant we all be friends? Why can't we all be friends? Lets just all be friends." I swear now if you dont start talking weather ill destroy you by sending a noaa aircraft to pick you all up to go to the insane asylum you trolls/taz belong in. ps. Taz got nothing against you but dude leave it to the blog admins to take care of. Quoting trolls just makes it worse dude you should know you have more posts then me, but thats probally because i lurk... In the shadows.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It only has about three or four days before it merges with a frontal zone. Thus, even if upper-level winds were to suddenly become more favorable, it would have very little opportunity to develop.


Yep, I think the shear is forecast to relax a little in 2-3 days, but it is only to relax for a short period of time, probably not enough time to develop even if it was going to be hanging around on its own for a while.
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.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


But he can help not responding to trolls all the time.

I bet if he would have never responded to trolls, no one would be imitating him or making a mock of him.

I think people on this blog are upset at the nonsense that goes around here sometimes. I come here to learn and update myself with the subject that I enjoy educating myself about, as well as many other people here, and I don't think anyone enjoys these types of annoyances.

And people question why some important people that kept this blog going left and started to fend off on their own blogs and or other blogs.

Wouldn't be surprised if that would happen again during this season as well.



You have mail
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Then direct the advice towards him, not everyone else.


I did direct it to him. Didn't you see it?

Quoting caneswatch:


Ignore and report Taz.
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Quoting Osmin:
taz pleez stik to da hurrikayns n da seezon we r in da midzt of


You have mail
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I was merely joking with him, I'm pretty sure he realised that,



i do
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lay off Taz....
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I think waters are just too cold at this stage for any increase in strength.

Though, under the circumstances, I'll stress that this is my opinion, and that I am not being abusive or threatening towards you. :-)


Dont worry I have done had my bouts of people threatening and harassing me on here... I know the difference
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258. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Date/Time: 2011JUN10 210100
CI: 1.6
Location: 23.1N 116.9E
Pressure: 1002.7/
Winds (kts): 26.0
Final T: 1.1
Adjusted T: 1.0
Raw T: 1.0
Scene: SHEAR
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Quoting presslord:
one is entitled to one's own opinion...but one is not entitled to one's own facts...


a politician ...... you are not
;-)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting tropicfreak:


Again, he can't help that he is typing like that. Leave him alone please.


I was merely joking with him, I'm pretty sure he realised that.
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Quoting Osmin:
taz pleez stik to da hurrikayns n da seezon we r in da midzt of



your in a mist of a tronado you have fun
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I wonder if Adrian is just tightening the eye... it does not look like a collapse has occurred yet maybe a second bout of strengthening???


I think waters are just too cold at this stage for any increase in strength.

Though, under the circumstances, I'll stress that this is my opinion, and that I am not being abusive or threatening towards you. :-)
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


here is a longer loop of that same area... kind of does look cool


Radar looks like little ripples of water that stones make when you drop it.
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have fun my little ones play nic
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Leave him alone, he can't help that he is typing like that.


But he can help not responding to trolls all the time.

I bet if he would have never responded to trolls, no one would be imitating him or making a mock of him.

I think people on this blog are upset at the nonsense that goes around here sometimes. I come here to learn and update myself with the subject that I enjoy educating myself about, as well as many other people here, and I don't think anyone enjoys these types of annoyances.

And people question why some important people that kept this blog going left and started to fend off on their own blogs and or other blogs.

Wouldn't be surprised if that would happen again during this season as well.

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Quoting caneswatch:


2 people like this.


maybe I should write a full blog about how to work and act on the blogs here
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one is entitled to one's own opinion...but one is not entitled to one's own facts...
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Quoting caneswatch:


Taz has a history of dealing with trolls himself. If he doesn't want to get banned this time around, it's best to give him the advice.


Then direct the advice towards him, not everyone else.
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I wonder if Adrian is just tightening the eye... it does not look like a collapse has occurred yet maybe a second bout of strengthening???
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
134. I agree. This blog has a very "holier than thou" attitude, and the views of most new or non-regular posters are often discarded. Probably because of the high troll level in here.
I agree with the holier than thou comment. But you guys, old and new need to stop with the "T" word. It's the N word of blogging and violates DR M rules. Just use the reporting tools if you think someone is out of bound, but a diversity of opinions ain't one of them. Thanks FZ
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I fear this may be a tad hypocritical...


Again, he can't help that he is typing like that. Leave him alone please.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Here is my advice for new members. Although I may not be the most popular poster here I have been around for a long time on here. Here are a few things to keep in mind for your first tropical season as a member here:

1. Give your opinion on tropical storms with backup... find specific data to back up your forecasters.

2. Ask questions.. even if you are the lead forecaster at National Hurricane Center... ask questions to show your genuine interest in other peoples opinions.

3. Stand up for yourself but don't resort to personal attacks.... defend your forecast don't put down your "opponent"

4. Read.... Read.... Read.... Read.... Read... find out what other people are saying don't try to control the conversation at all times.

5. Admit when you are wrong... if you mess up badly on a forecast... find out why and explain where you messed up... this will show that you are human just like the rest of us.

6. Be humble when you are right. Even if you got your forecast 100% right compliment someone else who also got the forecast right or don't say anything about your own forecast.

7. Post on other blogs in the same matter to help increase your post count and your reputation on the board.

8. Write your own blogs about the tropical system.. and keep it updated even if no one comments (many people read them even if no one comments)

9. Don't post links to your own website on here (you will be gone before you can create any reputation).

10. And finally... don't let people get on your nerves... there will always be bickering but you don't have to be a part of it.


Thanks for reading this post of mine


2 people like this.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
wtf is going on here? Geez. This blog is long past its heyday.
wish i was here for it's heyday...
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Anyway, weather. 94L still not doing anything incredible development wise, no suprise there, though there's a line of thunderstorms which may just give a little rain to Florida by the looks of things.




It only has about three or four days before it merges with a frontal zone. Thus, even if upper-level winds were to suddenly become more favorable, it would have very little opportunity to develop.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Quoting Sheening:


I fear the pot is calling the kettle black in this instance.

Or perhaps in Tza langwidge

I feer teh pto is call ing teh kett ill blcka in thsi in stants.


Leave him alone, he can't help that he is typing like that.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Don't advise people to report and ban others, if they have a problem with the user they'll be intelligent enough to do it themselves.


Taz has a history of dealing with trolls himself. If he doesn't want to get banned this time around, it's best to give him the advice.
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Adrian still looks good!

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Quoting Tazmanian:




hayday no no its called MayDay


hahaha
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Anyway, weather. 94L still not doing anything incredible development wise, no suprise there, though there's a line of thunderstorms which may just give a little rain to Florida by the looks of things.


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Quoting sammywammybamy:
This will not end well.



heh heh heh LOL
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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