Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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thats good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
01E/MH/A/C2
MARK
15.47N/108.5W
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


The Idaho Potato commission will be in touch.



Link


I live in New Hampshire. Maine is next door about 10 mile drive. They grow Maine Potatoes. We grow potatoes also but they apparently don't have a name... just plain old potatoes, not even a capital "P" in potato. But, I support our local farmers and eat potatoes with a lower case p whenever I can get fresh ones. Bummer. Maybe we should hire a marketing firm to get a capital P for our potatoes????
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You're not doing any good by talking with the trolls, just so you know...


You're right, I'll stop now.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore




nope
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Seriously, I think you're on the wrong board, I believe it's an imageboard with a number and a channel part of the website name that you're looking for.


You're not doing any good by talking with the trolls, just so you know...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20553
Quoting Sheening:


U mad bro?


Seriously, I think you're on the wrong board, I believe it's an imageboard with a number and a channel part of the website name that you're looking for.
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Quoting shadoclown45:
Truthfully someone who sets up mutiple emials just to create another account which they will troll on must be 12 or younger (which is unlikely) or a 30+ year old living in their mothers basement.

Poll:

A) 12 year old

B) 30+ year old in basement

C) Angry banned blogger

D) Alien life trying to communicate with us.


E: All of the above? ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20553
Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore



You're still with me Taz
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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore


nope
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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore



I see ya ;)
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oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


The Idaho Potato commission will be intouch.



Link



Oh, yeah. Well take this!! :)

Link
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I believe this may be our next Pacific concern. None of the models develop, but the conditions are conducive for some strengthening.

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Quoting Sheening:
Hurricane season
I'm here for the duration
A ban can't stop me


getting suspicious....
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Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, I heard they grew them big in Idaho. I was born on Long Island. We grow potatoes there, too. As a matter of fact, we grow Idaho potatoes there.


The Idaho Potato commission will be in touch.



Link
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Adrian's eye does indeed appear to be collapsing:




Going down to low end Category 3.
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I predict adrian will be a tropical storm with 45-60 mph winds by this time tommorrow its moving inot cool waters and dry air... sorry adrian you've been Replaced... Get it like it was trying to do to its eyewall. *sigh* im going back to lurking :( .
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Quoting Sheening:
Hurricane season
I'm here for the duration
A ban can't stop me


If spending your evening trying to annoy people is how exciting your evenings get, then I'm sure a ban won't stop you. Nice poetry.
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microwave imagery shows that we almost have a break in the eyewall... this may be down to 90 knts right now
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Adrian's eye does indeed appear to be collapsing:


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Quoting caneswatch:


I am also sick of that. I mean if there's a extremely definitive reason why, then I can see. If it's often or constant, like I see on here, it gets real annoying.

They know what they're doing about 99% of the time. They worked hard to get there, and they do their jobs well.


Exactly...
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After the heat wave and major t-storms last night, today was the most wicked awesome day I can imagine here in NH. Perfect.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
NASA's 'Age of Aquarius' Dawns With California Launch


A Delta II rocket launches with the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft payload from Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on Friday, June 10, 2011. The joint U.S./Argentinian Aquarius/Satelite de Aplicaciones Cientificas (SAC)-D mission, set to launch June 10, will map the salinity at the ocean surface, information critical to improving our understanding of two major components of Earth's climate system: the water cycle and ocean circulation. (Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls)

ScienceDaily (June 10, 2011) - NASA's 'Age of Aquarius' dawned June 10, 2011 with the launch of an international satellite carrying the agency-built Aquarius instrument that will measure the saltiness of Earth's oceans to advance our understanding of the global water cycle and improve climate forecasts.

The Aquarius/SAC-D observatory rocketed into space from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California atop a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket at 7:20:13 a.m. PDT (10:20:13 a.m. EDT). Less than 57 minutes later, the observatory separated from the rocket's second stage and began activation procedures, establishing communications with ground controllers and unfurling its solar arrays.

Initial telemetry reports show the observatory is in excellent health. The SAC-D (Sat%uFFFDlite de Aplicaciones Cient%uFFFDficas) observatory is a collaboration between NASA and Argentina's space agency, Comisi%uFFFDn Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE..........................

Link

NASA Goes Below the Surface to Understand Salinity
Link
Good news.

Always happy when we launches go well
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
empty space being created


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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Check out my Avi...and yes I always dress like that and yes I grew that spud in my garden in about a day and a half.;^)


Yeah, I heard they grew them big in Idaho. I was born on Long Island. We grow potatoes there, too. As a matter of fact, we grow Idaho potatoes there.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
We have some painfully slow storms east of here in Richmond, there are also a lot of gust fronts, and as they move west, storms form in behind it. Kinda cool. And get this, the storms are moving east at 5 mph. Flood advisory is in effect for some of these storms.






Wow i dont recall seeing that before or at least not with that many thunder storms at once (downdrafts?)
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I feel a sadness in my soul when a post is ignored or buried :(.
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Quoting presslord:
we're gonna have pizza out on the beach...most of you are welcome to join us...bring your own beer...
ok, be there in about 4 days.:(
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empty space being created
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Quoting caneswatch:


It's ok. I made an punctuation error, so I see the reason why you misunderstood.



How many times have I told you about that? I guess now I will have to teach you how to use a semicolon.

Like this sentence could be misinterpreted.

Is it, you twit? Is it you, twit? See how that can cause confusion. Two totally different meanings.
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Quoting caneswatch:
I am away from home, so i'm going to go enjoy my visit in Hutchinson Island. Be back later, and play nice!


At least this isn't 2004. *points to Frances and Jeanne*
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20553
Quoting Osmin:
It's ok cyclonechaser, i alreddy reportd taz four his pregudishal re marks


Did you read my wunderground mail that I sent to you, and there is no need for you to report him.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


If the eyewall is collapsing then it is most probably on it's way out, I don't think it would be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.


I agree... I dont think it will be a hurricane by this time tomorrow.
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we're gonna have pizza out on the beach...most of you are welcome to join us...bring your own beer...
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Quoting NRAamy:
spudsly....

:)
Check out my Avi...and yes I always dress like that and yes I grew that spud in my garden in about a day and a half.;^)
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Actually looking over Adrian more in detail it does actually appear that the eyewall is collapsing there is a weakness developing within it on the western side... I would say that the wind speeds are down to 85-90 knts at the next advisory


If the eyewall is collapsing then it is most probably on it's way out, I don't think it would be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.
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Grothar...any plans for the weekend? Lawn bowling?

;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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