Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Oh boy, you missed more than one. This blog looked like a warzone for half an hour.
more like trollzone but then a hammer fell
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


If spending your evening trying to annoy people is how exciting your evenings get, then I'm sure a ban won't stop you. Nice poetry.


There are some for whom this has become "sport".

Agreed, this one will return, constantly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This way...develop more and come this way!!!


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Quoting aquak9:
oh man, I missed a troll? my old age is showing...

yes there goes 94L like a giant tray of pastries and pies, and I'm tied to a tree...just barely outta reach

taz I do not have you on iggy- I love having you here


Oh boy, you missed more than one. This blog looked like a warzone for half an hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
375. IKE
Quoting RobDaHood:


heh heh heh...sorry, didn't mean to be a whiner.

Catch you folks later...have a great evening.
I was teasing with you.


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MJO still expected to move into our basin for the start of July.
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Quoting aquak9:
oh man, I missed a troll? my old age is showing...

yes there goes 94L like a giant tray of pastries and pies, and I'm tied to a tree...just barely outta reach

taz I do not have you on iggy- I love having you here
more tha 1 i believe 3 but now 0
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
oh man, I missed a troll? my old age is showing...

yes there goes 94L like a giant tray of pastries and pies, and I'm tied to a tree...just barely outta reach

taz I do not have you on iggy- I love having you here
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
nice and quiet now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting IKE:




heh heh heh...sorry, didn't mean to be a whiner.

Catch you folks later...have a great evening.
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Quoting IKE:
There it is....flipping off Florida as it passes to the east....




:'( oh sad day.
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See you too Taz btw :)
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01E/H/A/C1
MARK
15.47N/108.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
366. IKE

Quoting RobDaHood:

Yeah, NWS still calling for 40% here tomorrow, but have dropped precip from over 1/2 to under 1/10.

Might as well just spit on the yard.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Bmhjf0rKe8

This is to save our sanity people!
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Quoting NRAamy:
ok, back to 94L....




94L RIP
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Quoting IKE:
Hey.

i got zilch again today in rain.

So much for the above normal rain in the 6-10 day period for Florida.....



Yeah, NWS still calling for 40% here tomorrow, but have dropped precip from over 1/2 to under 1/10.

Might as well just spit on the yard.
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362. IKE
There it is....flipping off Florida as it passes to the east....


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To switch interest in some other direction - and I tell you, it's all true; it's really dangerous on German streets and it's somehow at least climate related:

Commuter Chaos
Lack of Infrastructure Threatens German Cyclists
By Guido Kleinhubbert
Germany has never had so many cyclists, but the country lacks the infrastructure to handle the spike in two-wheeler traffic. Accident levels have increased dramatically, but experts say cities can't keep up.
Much more dramatic stuff : http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,151 8,767522,00.html

Concerning weather resp. drought: Germany got some thunderstorms and even severe weather the last days that mitigated drought at least in most regions. I really hope, Florida and Texas will follow; I'm full of sympathy.
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ok, back to 94L....
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm not making fun of Taz.
He's a valuable member of this community.
I was making a constructive suggestion for him to think about.
.
.
Love you Taz!





thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not making fun of Taz.
He's a valuable member of this community.
I was making a constructive suggestion for him to think about.
.
.
Love you Taz!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5688
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Question, Taz. Do you use bad grammar/spelling on purpose?





POOF and reported
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356. IKE
Quoting RobDaHood:


Yeah, right! We got ripped off somewhere along the line!

BTW...Hi Ike!

TAZ.
It's all good man...just chill and ignore!
In otherwords...stay cool TAZ!
Hey.

i got zilch again today in rain.

So much for the above normal rain in the 6-10 day period for Florida.....


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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
We have a cloud over South Florida!



It's actually sprinkling in my part of Naples, and the sound of distant thunder is like music to my drought-stricken ears.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
bam
bam
bam
bam
bam
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Re-ported!
.
.
.
Maybe it's because many of your posts say not much more than the above word.


Do you realize how much he has been made fun of? Really? Was that necessary? Maybe he can't take this crap anymore.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Question, Taz. Do you use bad grammar/spelling on purpose?


You have mail
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Quoting shadoclown45:
Truthfully someone who sets up mutiple emials just to create another account which they will troll on must be 12 or younger (which is unlikely) or a 30+ year old living in their mothers basement.

Poll:

A) 12 year old

B) 30+ year old in basement

C) Angry banned blogger

D) Alien life trying to communicate with us.

B and C
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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore



I don't have you on ignore taz, I support you.
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Quoting IKE:
Here it comes south Florida. Break out the umbrellas!




Yeah, right! We got ripped off somewhere along the line!

BTW...Hi Ike!

TAZ.
It's all good man...just chill and ignore!
In otherwords...stay cool TAZ!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
337. FrankZapper 3:31 PM PDT on June 10, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore

I see you Taz. I am proud to say I have none in my ignore box, not even PurpleDrank, who seems to want a hurricane to destroy NOLA while he's high on codeine. I just glance at their posts and move on.
Action: Quote | Ignore User



thats good too here


Odeis sent me some hate mail taz, is he banned and reported?
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Quoting Grothar:



Oh, yeah. Well take this!! :)

Link
FOOD FIGHT!!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5688
343. IKE
Here it comes south Florida. Break out the umbrellas!


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Quoting Tazmanian:
337. FrankZapper 3:31 PM PDT on June 10, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore

I see you Taz. I am proud to say I have none in my ignore box, not even PurpleDrank, who seems to want a hurricane to destroy NOLA while he's high on codeine. I just glance at their posts and move on.
Action: Quote | Ignore User



thats good too here


Question, Taz. Do you use bad grammar/spelling on purpose?
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Quoting Grothar:



Oh, yeah. Well take this!! :)

Link


bring it on!

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337. FrankZapper 3:31 PM PDT on June 10, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore

I see you Taz. I am proud to say I have none in my ignore box, not even PurpleDrank, who seems to want a hurricane to destroy NOLA while he's high on codeine. I just glance at their posts and move on.
Action: Quote | Ignore User



thats good too here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


"Oh my god, now I doubt anyone can see me thanks to caneswatch: half of you or all of you have put me on ignore."



Oh gotcha, thanks kori
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
We have a cloud over South Florida!


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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore

I see you Taz. I am proud to say I have none in my ignore box, not even PurpleDrank, who seems to want a hurricane to destroy NOLA while he's high on codeine. I just glance at their posts and move on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
troll removal complete
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
335. DDR
Very lovely evening here in Trinidad.
3 inches of rain since June 1st,thing are on track here.
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Quoting HarryMc:


I live in New Hampshire. Maine is next door about 10 mile drive. They grow Maine Potatoes. We grow potatoes also but they apparently don't have a name... just plain old potatoes, not even a capital "P" in potato. But, I support our local farmers and eat potatoes with a lower case p whenever I can get fresh ones. Bummer. Maybe we should hire a marketing firm to get a capital P for our potatoes????
lol! You guys should get right on that.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


umm please say that again? no offense intended...


"Oh my god, now I doubt anyone can see me thanks to caneswatch: half of you or all of you have put me on ignore."
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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore



umm please say that again? no offense intended...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
rememeber to hit ignore after you hit ! then -

move on
no more garbage
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore

Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore

I see you Taz....when do you think you will hit 150,000 comments?....maybe we should get a pool going on that.:)
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thats good
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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