Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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barbamz- (this is SO off-topic folks, sorry) it's sad because so many times, those symptoms are treated initially w/antibiotics...then the Ecoli burst, releasing a flood of toxins, and then you get severe kidney damage.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
Quoting Levi32:
Showers are teasing south Florida.



So Rude!!!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It is quite humorous. Lack of available moisture in the drought areas? You couldn't squeeze a drip out of the soil right now. Has to be some science behind it.


It is rather interesting that Florida has been so dry in the majority of at least the last 5 years, isn't it. I'm unsure of what reason lies behind it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
well adrian made it to the triple nickel thats thats all folks
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Quoting Levi32:
Showers are teasing south Florida.



It is quite humorous. Lack of available moisture in the drought areas? You couldn't squeeze a drip out of the soil right now. Has to be some science behind it.
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Quoting NOVArules:
94L is basically trolling Florida right now...
pretty much
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01E/H/A
MARK
15.55n/109.1w
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Quoting aquak9:


Barbamz- no Idea where it came from? uhh..probably run-off water, or fertilizer. My only problems with my garden are the raccoons. And I could probably safely eat them too, if I had to.


Maybe, Aqua. But maybe it's more complicated. Maybe even anthropogenic (= human source: i.e. people who worked in this farm). Nature is a constant laboratory. But for sure: There is a quite chaotic and very severe situation in hospitals in northern Germany (fortunately not in our region).
Some more informations (but just google "Ehec" for more) http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/06 11/1224298736466.html
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Showers are teasing south Florida.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting Grothar:


We didn't call them that in those days. We called them ag-ag.



LMAO

Thanks for the clarification.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
once the persitant area of weather moving into sw tropical atlantic moves up and out then the gates open and a more east to west flow with a risen ITCZ will commence the tropical season

Some additional 10 degrees N and will be CV season start...
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94L is basically trolling Florida right now...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL i hop you no am olny kinding around


No worries, Pal. It's been very pleasant here, so far this May and June. The heat is being held well north of us.

BTW, if ya wanna send at least a snow cone, or an Italian ice, we're receptive. hehehe
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For anyone interested, The Old Farmer's Almanac forecast for Florida for June. NOTE HURRICANE RISK starts today.

JUNE 2011: temperature 79 ° (2 ° below avg.); precipitation 14.5" (8" above avg.); Jun 1-3: Heavy t-storms, cool; Jun 4-9: Sunny north, a few t-storms south; Jun 10-13: Hurricane threat; Jun 14-20: Sunny north, t-storms south; cool; Jun 21-24: Hurricane threat; Jun 25-30: Scattered t-storms, warm.

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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Greetings, Gro.

Since we seem to have a lull, can you regale us with the tale of the first time the 'tater was cultivated, some 7,000 years past?

:)


We didn't call them that in those days. We called them ag-ag.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
Quoting sunlinepr:
once the persitant area of weather moving into sw tropical atlantic moves up and out then the gates open and a more east to west flow with a risen ITCZ will commence the tropical season
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Quoting CosmicEvents:






KOFG has been living up to his name well. Plus, look at how far we've come in eliminating the drama since....you know. All in all, it's a smoother running, more informative(props to Nea), and sometimes divertingly humorous and interesting blog this year..


You'll get no argument from me there, Cos. Keeper is doing a WUnderful Job. :)

Nice to see you around.
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Quoting aquak9:
Taz- I would be happy to have the snow.

Barbamz- no Idea where it came from? uhh..probably run-off water, or fertilizer. My only problems with my garden are the raccoons. And I could probably safely eat them too, if I had to.


Of course you can safely eat them. You don't think Davy Crocket or Dan'l Boone would just use the hide do you?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting CosmicEvents:






KOTG has been living up to his name well. Plus, look at how far we've come in eliminating the drama since....you know. All in all, it's a smoother running, more informative(props to Nea), and sometimes divertingly humorous and interesting blog this year..
lol
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Quoting sunlinepr:
EPAC ITCZ Firing up now...

the march of the storms has begun and increases from here
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Quoting aquak9:
Looks like heavy fog to me, Zap. But I think there's a horned, three-headed fish wandering around in the background.
Oh,OK. Yea I see it now. Kind of slimy.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Stocks Fall in Longest Dow Slump Since 2002
Maybe the heat got to them on Wall Street.
It was 96 up there yesterday, and that's broiling in Manhattan amongst all that concrete.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5606
Adrian was fun while it lasted. Annular cat 4 with beautiful pics.
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Taz- I would be happy to have the snow.

Barbamz- no Idea where it came from? uhh..probably run-off water, or fertilizer. My only problems with my garden are the raccoons. And I could probably safely eat them too, if I had to.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
A noticeable tropical wave along 42W in the central Atlantic:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Stocks Fall in Longest Dow Slump Since 2002
By Rita Nazareth and Lu Wang - Jun 10, 2011 4:12 PM AT
U.S. Stocks Decline

The Dow lost 137.41 points, or 1.1 percent, to 11,986.95 at 10:47am in New York, its first dip below 12,000 since March. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg
U.S. stocks extended a sixth weekly drop, the longest slump for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2002, and oil slid while Treasuries, the dollar and yen rose amid concern the global economy is slowing. Crude extended losses as OPEC said Saudi Arabia pumped the most since 2008.

The Dow lost 172.45 points, or 1.4 percent, to 11,951.91 at 4 p.m. in New York, its first dip below 12,000 since March, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.4 percent to 1,270.98. Ten-year Treasury yields lost three basis points to 2.97 percent, the Dollar Index rose for a third day and the yen strengthened against all 16 major peers. The cost of insuring Greek and Portuguese debt rose to records amid lingering concern over Europe’s debt crisis. Oil sank below $100 a barrel.
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Where are all the west casters? Lord, I could hop on a Booze cruise and get drenched. :-(
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LOL i hop you no am olny kinding around
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


There are some for whom this has become "sport".

Agreed, this one will return, constantly.






KOFG has been living up to his name well. Plus, look at how far we've come in eliminating the drama since....you know. All in all, it's a smoother running, more informative(props to Nea), and sometimes divertingly humorous and interesting blog this year..
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5606
Quoting Tazmanian:
i send some snow for FL


Thanks, Taz! We'll welcome the gift. :)
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Quoting aquak9:
from Barbamz' link:

while tea produced in all 18 other areas had safe levels

Like I want there to be "safe levels" of cesium in my tea? And not only that, those 18 other areas were tested by the farmers themselves!

No Cesium in my Teasium!! That's it, I'm boycotting imported tea.


You're right, Aqua. But, on the other hand: Is there any product which is totally free of radiation in our times? Life is always at risk (and somehow it has ever been, lol).

Edit: Watch our problems in Germany with those healthy sprouts: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,151 8,767935,00.html
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


maybe I should write a full blog about how to work and act on the blogs here


Good luck with that...whenever the usuals return you'll get piled on. Been down that road before...it's not pretty!
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i send some snow for FL
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i talk about your spelling LOL you cant even spell


It's obvious he's just jerkin' your chain!
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from Barbamz' link:

while tea produced in all 18 other areas had safe levels

Like I want there to be "safe levels" of cesium in my tea? And not only that, those 18 other areas were tested by the farmers themselves!

No Cesium in my Teasium!! That's it, I'm boycotting imported tea.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
Quoting Grothar:


Where did you find that? We better stop or they will both start calling us potato-heads.


Greetings, Gro.

Since we seem to have a lull, can you regale us with the tale of the first time the 'tater was cultivated, some 7,000 years past?

:)
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Looks like heavy fog to me, Zap. But I think there's a horned, three-headed fish wandering around in the background.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
Quoting FrankZapper:
Is it about to blow its top of or something?

No, not such dramatic. But they use to release steam from the meltdown crippled units regularily. With heavy impacts to environment and people, of course. Just follow the news. Edit; F.e.: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/tea-from -shizuoka-exceeds-radioactive-standard-after-quake -1-.htmlFor the moment, it seems to be fog though.
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EPAC ITCZ Firing up now...

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12z NAEFS has elevated precipitation in the western Caribbean in 2 weeks similar to the GFS ensembles:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
385. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
OVER THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LOW IS INTERACTING
WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
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Quoting barbamz:
Heavy steam (??) show at nuclear power plant fukushima right now:
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/f1-np/camera/index-e .html
Click to Windows Media, if it won't show up at once.
Blog to follow those nuclear events:
http://www.scribblelive.com/Event/Japan_Earthquak e5Link
Is it about to blow its top of or something?
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


bring it on!



Where did you find that? We better stop or they will both start calling us potato-heads.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
382. wpb
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=DGTMFL
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Eye isn't visible anymore...This is a Category 2 hurricane now.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32262
Heavy steam (??) show at nuclear power plant fukushima right now:
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/f1-np/camera/index-e .html
Click to Windows Media, if it won't show up at once.
Blog to follow those nuclear events:
http://www.scribblelive.com/Event/Japan_Earthquak e5Link
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Oh boy, you missed more than one. This blog looked like a warzone for half an hour.
more like trollzone but then a hammer fell
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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