Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Evening all. We're still overcast here from 94L, but not seeing any appreciable rainfall from it since this morning. I can tell the tropical moisture has arrived because the cooler temps / lower humidity was in FRONT of the stormy weather..... lol.....


Quoting Levi32:
A noticeable tropical wave along 42W in the central Atlantic:

Hey, this is the one our local met drew our attention to last night.... Will be interesting to see if it holds together well enough to bring us some more "typical" June storminess later this month.....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Quoting caneswatch:


Taz, I made a simple mistake with punctuation. I'm sorry about that. The message was meant to tell you to report and ignore them and not confront them.

For those who have put Taz on ignore today, you can take him off.


Whew, I feel much better now thank you.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Video of the hospital we were in before Charley destroyed it: (If I only had a clue what was about to happen)


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Quoting aquak9:
what math, SLU? Shear dropping, AB high signing a lease, SAL looks about normal.

Am I missing something?


The cooling of the Gulf of Guinea is an important factor to add to the favorable ones.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14311
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


That they were, I remember the moment that we realized that Jeanne was going to hit us in the same spot that Frances did. Felt like being kicked in the "nether region".


When she made that 270 degree turn, I bet everyone's face was like: O_o

I woke up the Tuesday before she hit, and I saw her 5am cone. I thought it was gonna move north after Haiti and I never paid any attention to it until then.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Personally, I was in both storms myself. No power for a week after each storm. Imagine if Ivan made a Charley-like turn....


me too, caneswatch. But only on the north side. nothing like you folk further down. I remember really holding our breath with ivan. Our power was only out for 3 or 4 days, but in those days we lived down the road from the power company. My current neighbor says they were out of power out here for about two weeks for every storm that year. I think there were three that actually hit us big time, but can't remember the name of the third....(not ivan)

you guys had some major devastation, down your way.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Probably one of the best posts of the year :)


what a great game tonight orca. You like what you see from lu?
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Quoting RTLSNK:
I have an interesting report on Hurricane Adrian and the conduct and behavioral tendencies of members of this website.

On Dr. Master's blog of June 08, 2011, on page 11, post 547 that evening, a new blogger named Bitmap7 downloaded the following comment:

"I call cat3 on Adrian by 8:00 am tomorrow. Thunderstorms popping up in the center like crazy, and its dmin."

On page 12 he began to be questioned and even threatened to be ignored by one blogger for giving his opinion in his comment. You can go back two blogs and read them for yourselves, but allow me to give you a guide:

555 - AussieStorm
559 - taco2me61
569 - AussieStorm
575 - Levi32
592 - AussieStorm
593 - Hurrykane
594 - Levi32

It continued on the next page, page 13:

602 - Levi32
610 - AussieStorm
611 - Levi32
614 - AussieStorm

On page 13, in his post 621, Bitmap7 tried to explain to "The Experts" why he felt Adrian had a chance to fight off the dry air that was ahead of the storm. He cited the report of the NASA Hurricane Science Research Program concerning what they had discovered about the convective ring feature in storms that had rapid intensification capabilities.

Bitmap7 finally gave up trying to swim upstream against the "Experts" vast knowledge and left.

Let us now fast forward to the very next morning, and see what happened. This was a portion of the NHC report on poor little Adrian:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

Holy Hurricane Batman, did the NHC just say that ADRIAN IS A CAT 3 AT 8:00 HRS?

Gee, isn't that what Bitmap7 said last night?

I have read every comment on the blog for the last two days. I have yet to see anyone give credit to this new blogger for his excellent call on Wed night. Nor have I seen any one apologize.

Bitmap7, if you are still lurking on this blog, what we normally do in a case like this is give you verbal kudo's for your well thought out and reasoned and studied call.

Let me also apologize to you for the treatment you received and advise you not to give up on something that you are obviously very good at.

For the rest of you in this report: shame on you.


Probably one of the best posts of the year :)
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470. SLU
Quoting aquak9:
what math, SLU? Shear dropping, AB high signing a lease, SAL looks about normal.

Am I missing something?


This is wayyyy too favourable a tropical atlantic for June 10th.

Looks more conducive than this time last year.

That's why the wave near 43W is coming to life tonight.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh my god now i dont any one can see me be come thanks too caneswatch: hafe of you or all of you have put me on ignore



Taz, I made a simple mistake with punctuation. I'm sorry about that. The message was meant to tell you to report and ignore them and not confront them.

For those who have put Taz on ignore today, you can take him off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


I know. Those two storms were nightmares. Someone put up a video, can't remember who, but so many memories just came rushing back.


That they were, I remember the moment that we realized that Jeanne was going to hit us in the same spot that Frances did. Felt like being kicked in the "nether region".
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Quoting caneswatch:


I know. Those two storms were nightmares. Someone put up a video, can't remember who, but so many memories just came rushing back.


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Quoting fatlady99:

Yeah, they were pretty awful for lots of folks. Folks up here with no power for weeks. But my tomatoes loved 'em. never saw so many wild cherry tomatoes as after that hurricane season, all the way till January.

It makes me wonder if and when the climate will cycle back to more moisture up here...


Personally, I was in both storms myself. No power for a week after each storm. Imagine if Ivan made a Charley-like turn....
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Quoting KanKunKid:


Charley "C" 3rd named storm came in late August '04. I hope we get a no-name before then.


A no-namer would definitely be nice help.
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464. Jax82
Well it looks like we have to wait for the MJO to come back to our neck of the woods, some were saying towards the end of the month? I guess its back to wave watching. Its about as cool as watching grass grow.
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Quoting KanKunKid:


It's actually kind of nice outside here in SW FL. I couldn't stand outside admiring it if it was raining, but I learned how to drink beer and look out the window. So, I think I am ready for it.

I just hope it rains before we get some nasty fires here. I can't run and drink beer while I'm on fire. Stop, Drop and Roll is what happens to the beer can, not me!


LOL

Fire bad, beer, not bad...:)
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Quoting caneswatch:


I know. Those two storms...

Yeah, they were pretty awful for lots of folks. Folks up here with no power for weeks. But my tomatoes loved 'em. never saw so many wild cherry tomatoes as after that hurricane season, all the way till January.

It makes me wonder if and when the climate will cycle back to more moisture up here...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Sure hope Florida gets some much needed rain soon


All of us here, thank you for the sentiment!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what math, SLU? Shear dropping, AB high signing a lease, SAL looks about normal.

Am I missing something?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


At least this isn't 2004. *points to Frances and Jeanne*


I know. Those two storms were nightmares. Someone put up a video, can't remember who, but so many memories just came rushing back.
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456. SLU
You do the math ...

Image and video hosting by TinyPic">





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Sure hope Florida gets some much needed rain soon
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Quoting Levi32:
Showers are teasing south Florida.



Yep second eve in a row. No rain here in KCB for a long time. Rain barrel is almost empty :>(
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Quoting KanKunKid:


At least we can still find beer.


Nice to hear from you, K. :)

Agreed.
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Quoting aquak9:
When I was little, here in NE Fla, the rains would make for fat juicy blackberries, you could pick tea-pitchers full of them. Keep bags of them and freeze them.

Now all our woods can't even keep blackberry brambles alive anymore. No rain, never like it used to be.

I miss blackberries.


I miss precipitation.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It's not the lack of tropical activity is the lack of everyday rainfall that is killing. 04/05 big cane years 06 Ernesto? 07 was dry as a bone. It's funny as I went back to my old handle that the last blog I did in March/07 was on the drought and aside from changing a couple dates, would still apply today. Very strange indeed.


I've been in the same area of ECFL for 26 years. Things have changed dramatically.

As Cos said, the afternoon rains were like a fine watch, always dependable. Not so, for quite a while now.
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Quoting aquak9:
fatlady- you've noticed, too? we never made jam...just froze them for pies, and dumplings. Strebought are no good once you've picked them yourself.

BTW, hi progreesive and cosmic...I'm making brownies...would rather be making a blackberry pie.


Howdy Aqua. Ummmmm love chocolate.


Did you say something about blackberries?
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Sometimes being the monkey in the middle isn't funny. Seriously, really? Maybe Ray Finkel can make it through those uprights?

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fatlady- you've noticed, too? we never made jam...just froze them for pies, and dumplings. Strebought are no good once you've picked them yourself.

BTW, hi progreesive and cosmic...I'm making brownies...would rather be making a blackberry pie.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Don't get me started...lol.
I might start talking about the ants, or lack of.
It's slim pickings for the birds.
Of course, these days, we don't see as many as birds as we used to.......
.
.
.
This is beginning to feel like a Twilight Zone episode.
.
.
.




Even the snow birds are starting to thin out. However, I think this area needs a little de-population.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Don't get me started...lol.
I might start talking about the ants, or lack of.
It's slim pickings for the birds.
Of course, these days, we don't see as many as birds as we used to.......
.
.
.
This is beginning to feel like a Twilight Zone episode.
.
.
.



Just sayin'...
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Maybe the monitor lizards are trying to tell us something, lol.
Don't get me started...lol.
I might start talking about the ants, or lack of.
It's slim pickings for the birds.
Of course, these days, we don't see as many as birds as we used to.......
.
.
.
This is beginning to feel like a Twilight Zone episode.
.
.
.

Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5606
Quoting aquak9:
When I was little, here in NE Fla, the rains would make for fat juicy blackberries, you could pick tea-pitchers full of them. Keep bags of them and freeze them.

Now all our woods can't even keep blackberry brambles alive anymore. No rain, never like it used to be.

I miss blackberries.

We went looking for blackberries to make jam. Could only find a few stunted ones that hadn't even ripened. Hasn't been enough moisture for them to get ripe at all. No jam. At least not till July when we can buy them, but the wild ones are so much better.
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Maybe the monitor lizards are trying to tell us something, lol.
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When I was little, here in NE Fla, the rains would make for fat juicy blackberries, you could pick tea-pitchers full of them. Keep bags of them and freeze them.

Now all our woods can't even keep blackberry brambles alive anymore. No rain, never like it used to be.

I miss blackberries.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't know what's causing it but SE Florida used to have a rainy season that you could set your watch by. Year after year, for decades, depending on where you lived, the T-storms would blow through at some point between 3-7PM. All that stopped 4 years ago. This year is so extreme it's scary.


Up here as well. Our front acre used to be a meadow with oaks. Now it's covered with palmetto, cactus, and expanding sand pits.
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Adrian fading, but still a respectable Cat 3:

EP, 01, 2011061100, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1089W, 100, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1010, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting Levi32:


It is rather interesting that Florida has been so dry in the majority of at least the last 5 years, isn't it. I'm unsure of what reason lies behind it.


It's not the lack of tropical activity is the lack of everyday rainfall that is killing. 04/05 big cane years 06 Ernesto? 07 was dry as a bone. It's funny as I went back to my old handle that the last blog I did in March/07 was on the drought and aside from changing a couple dates, would still apply today. Very strange indeed.
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Quoting Levi32:


It is rather interesting that Florida has been so dry in the majority of at least the last 5 years, isn't it. I'm unsure of what reason lies behind it.
I don't know what's causing it but SE Florida used to have a rainy season that you could set your watch by. Year after year, for decades, depending on where you lived, the T-storms would blow through at some point between 3-7PM. All that stopped 4 years ago. This year is so extreme it's scary.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5606
Quoting aquak9:
g'nite barbamz, peace be with you

As well with you, Aqua, Thanks ... And now Sqzzzeeeeee chrrr (or how do you snore in the the US?)
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Quoting ElConando:


So Rude!!!


Roger that!
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g'nite barbamz, peace be with you
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With no rain at all up here in NCen FL, and all the smoke from the brush fires, its not happy making....
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Quoting Grothar:


We didn't call them that in those days. We called them ag-ag.

Hi, Groth, and hi, Dan. I had a some good laughter with you the last days. Always appreciate your comments (and a lot of the others as well, for sure!). But now I have to go to bed, it's very late in Germany (near dawn already). Have a good time! At Pentecost we usually are free of duty even at Monday in Germany ...
And BTW: Adrian was a really beautiful hurricane!!!
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barbamz- (this is SO off-topic folks, sorry) it's sad because so many times, those symptoms are treated initially w/antibiotics...then the Ecoli burst, releasing a flood of toxins, and then you get severe kidney damage.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.