Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting Grothar:


I told you before; I'm taking names. :) So what are we arguing about tonight? I mean discussing?

Who makes the best brownies. : )
Edges are the best.
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Quoting aquak9:
what math, SLU? Shear dropping, AB high signing a lease, SAL looks about normal.

Am I missing something?
idk if you were kidding, but yes, you are missing a few things.

And I disagree with SAL being at normal levels.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting aquak9:
FL- (much nicer than typing fatlady) you're not gonna get banned for discussing weather memories.

Not too often it's quiet enough around here, to have nice conversation. Grothar's always bragging about something it seems...

:)


I told you before; I'm taking names. :) So what are we arguing about tonight? I mean discussing?
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Quoting aquak9:
Brownies outta the oven, ya'll. Let'm cool a bit, then help yourselves. Save the edges for me, tho.
Those brownies smell so good they've lured some ants outta' there deep nest........I'm sure your homemade brownies are delicious....I'm in outpatient therapy for addiction to Ghiardelli Ultimate Fudge. Save an edge for me too.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5655
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think we've also seen some changes in steering patterns as well. Case in point; the first moisture we normally got in June was not likely to be from a SW CAR low pressure system, but rather from an easterly Twave, moving progressively from the SE to the NW through the archipelago. Forecasting was relatively easy. Nowadays, it seems somewhat harder to know what to expect....


Agree with you on all points -- I made the same comment about the rain the other day -- just like an alarm -- 2:45 - 3:15 --- the winds have been different, and none of the "normals" are normal any more.
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Late Wednesday (local time) NHC was only forecasting cat 3 status for Adrian.

HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
0300 UTC THU JUN 09 2011

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

Adrian sure beat the heck out of that forecast.

HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
0900 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6106
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Annular hurricane generally do not weaken this quickly



They can when they're transiting into cooler waters. Igor was also semi-annular for a while too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
cool pics- errr..."steamy" pics with that link, p'cola

thanks
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 26296
I posted this earlier today ... I figured I would post it again for those that were not on earlier

Here is my advice for new members. Although I may not be the most popular poster here I have been around for a long time on here. Here are a few things to keep in mind for your first tropical season as a member here:

1. Give your opinion on tropical storms with backup... find specific data to back up your forecasters.

2. Ask questions.. even if you are the lead forecaster at National Hurricane Center... ask questions to show your genuine interest in other peoples opinions.

3. Stand up for yourself but don't resort to personal attacks.... defend your forecast don't put down your "opponent"

4. Read.... Read.... Read.... Read.... Read... find out what other people are saying don't try to control the conversation at all times.

5. Admit when you are wrong... if you mess up badly on a forecast... find out why and explain where you messed up... this will show that you are human just like the rest of us.

6. Be humble when you are right. Even if you got your forecast 100% right compliment someone else who also got the forecast right or don't say anything about your own forecast.

7. Post on other blogs in the same matter to help increase your post count and your reputation on the board.

8. Write your own blogs about the tropical system.. and keep it updated even if no one comments (many people read them even if no one comments)

9. Don't post links to your own website on here (you will be gone before you can create any reputation).

10. And finally... don't let people get on your nerves... there will always be bickering but you don't have to be a part of it.


Thanks for reading this post of mine
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Annular hurricane generally do not weaken this quickly

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Quoting caneswatch:


Taz, I made a simple mistake with punctuation. I'm sorry about that. The message was meant to tell you to report and ignore them and not confront them.

For those who have put Taz on ignore today, you can take him off.



ok
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The day the river boiled: Chilean volcanic eruption turns waterway into a steaming torrent

The usually chilly river temperature of six degrees has been raised to an average of around 45 degrees by the eruption.
The huge surge in temperature has caused more than 4.3million fish to die since it began last Saturday.
The eruption also forced the evacuation of 3,500 people from around the site, while a ten kilometre exclusion zone was also set up.


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Looking at the bigger picture, it seems like 94L is pretty much gone... a few more overnight showers if we get lucky.



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22592
Very true, Baha - I've lurked on this site for years and I don't often remember such jagged looking presentations of the northern jet stream in summer. There's always a crazy dip and a crazy ridge somewhere, but the whole thing across the Western Hemisphere this year has just been stuck for weeks ... plunging down to the subtropics, then running wildly up into the polar regions, plunging right back down to the subtropics again a couple hundred miles further over. And a lot of that's from big Lows and Highs just sitting in place -- nothing really wanting to move.

LOL it's like the whole northern atmosphere needs some Milk of Magnesia

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XX/AOI/XL
MARK
10.55N/41.22W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting OrchidGrower:
I think Buhdog put his paw on it earlier today, talking about how you used to could count on seabreeze and rain; now we have these crazy ULLs and what-not that park over a patch of water and won't move, destroy every wet system that comes along, etc. Speaking of which - is our ULL in the Gulf moving yet, or still hanging tough alongside? I saw beautiful stormclouds in the distance over Naples this afternoon, but here in Cape Coral/Ft. Myers that dreadful wind was up as usual of late, taking the wrecking ball to the afternoon's clouds.
I think we've also seen some changes in steering patterns as well. Case in point; the first moisture we normally got in June was not likely to be from a SW CAR low pressure system, but rather from an easterly Twave, moving progressively from the SE to the NW through the archipelago. Forecasting was relatively easy. Nowadays, it seems somewhat harder to know what to expect....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22592
Quoting SouthALWX:
I'd like to see how much of an effect the warm AMO has on Florida Seabreeze. With the water anomalously warm, it serves to reason that the temperature contrast between land and sea may not be as much as when the water is anomalously cool.


That's a very good point. I considered that as well, but that doesn't explain why Florida has only been this way recently, not since 1995 when the AMO went positive.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
rapid disapation
01E/H/A
MARK
15.55n/109.1w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
I'd like to see how much of an effect the warm AMO has on Florida Seabreeze. With the water anomalously warm, it serves to reason that the temperature contrast between land and sea may not be as much as when the water is anomalously cool.
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Quoting tropicfreak:




I would love to too aquak, but here the darn jet stream and the rain snow line hurts us here in Richmond VA. LOL. Oh how I long for those cold snowy days!


this one, tropics? it's kinda the wrong time of year for snow...I've never even seen it.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 26296
Quoting shadoclown45:
Guys what is the chance of rain at 6:00pm tomorrow  in staten island.
60 percent
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting aquak9:
fatlady- I guess I was ok, like I said, I don't remember.

But Jeanne/francis was a mess, sounds like you are better prepared now, hand crank is good. They even make some hand crank cell phone chargers these days.


Did you see my response to your comment aquak.
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Brownies outta the oven, ya'll. Let'm cool a bit, then help yourselves. Save the edges for me, tho.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 26296
Quoting aquak9:
FL- (much nicer than typing fatlady) you're not gonna get banned for discussing weather memories.

Not too often it's quiet enough around here, to have nice conversation. Grothar's always bragging about something it seems...

:)

AQ - well when you are as old as Grothar, what else is there to do?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. We're still overcast here from 94L, but not seeing any appreciable rainfall from it since this morning. I can tell the tropical moisture has arrived because the cooler temps / lower humidity was in FRONT of the stormy weather..... lol.....


Hey, this is the one our local met drew our attention to last night.... Will be interesting to see if it holds together well enough to bring us some more "typical" June storminess later this month.....



That would certainly be nice I'm sure.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
FL- (much nicer than typing fatlady) you're not gonna get banned for discussing weather memories.

Not too often it's quiet enough around here, to have nice conversation. Grothar's always bragging about something it seems...

:)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 26296
From 491, above: BahaHurican quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't know what's causing it but SE Florida used to have a rainy season that you could set your watch by. Year after year, for decades, depending on where you lived, the T-storms would blow through at some point between 3-7PM. All that stopped 4 years ago. This year is so extreme it's scary.

BahaHurican: Interesting u noted this. I just mentioned to a colleague today that you used to be able to set your watch by the afternoon showers here... sometime between 2:30 and 3:15 it was raining somewhere on New Providence, starting about the third week in May and running until about the end of June. This last 4-5 years it's been hard to know what to expect.



I think Buhdog put his paw on it earlier today, talking about how you used to could count on seabreeze and rain; now we have these crazy ULLs and what-not that park over a patch of water and won't move, destroy every wet system that comes along, etc. Speaking of which - is our ULL in the Gulf moving yet, or still hanging tough alongside? I saw beautiful stormclouds in the distance over Naples this afternoon, but here in Cape Coral/Ft. Myers that dreadful wind was up as usual of late, taking the wrecking ball to the afternoon's clouds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
fatlady- I guess I was ok, like I said, I don't remember.

But Jeanne/francis was a mess, sounds like you are better prepared now, hand crank is good. They even make some hand crank cell phone chargers these days.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 26296
Guys what is the chance of rain at 6:00pm tomorrow  in staten island.
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Quoting fatlady99:


Was it Wilma that wiped out the flock of whooping cranes?

I agree, it's been nice to have a break from the storms. Now we really need that water!


Not sure if it was her.

But since we need that water, we now have to rely on a tropical storm or hurricane to help us with relieving this drought. That's how it's always been, however.
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Quoting fatlady99:


Was it Wilma that wiped out the flock of whooping cranes?

I agree, it's been nice to have a break from the storms. Now we really need that water!


I'd best pipe down before I get banned! Can't help it, just like to chat. g'nite all.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well adrian made it to the triple nickel thats thats all folks


Cat 4, not bad for a June storm.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Wilma, though in the season after, was much worse. Those in inland PBC who were spared from Frances and Jeanne got heavily hit. The Hebert Hoover Dike that surrounds Lake O suffered cracks caused by Wilma. Around a couple hundred thousand live around the lake. Thankfully no storms have hit since.


Was it Wilma that wiped out the flock of whooping cranes?

I agree, it's been nice to have a break from the storms. Now we really need that water!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't know what's causing it but SE Florida used to have a rainy season that you could set your watch by. Year after year, for decades, depending on where you lived, the T-storms would blow through at some point between 3-7PM. All that stopped 4 years ago. This year is so extreme it's scary.
Interesting u noted this. I just mentioned to a colleague today that you used to be able to set your watch by the afternoon showers here... sometime between 2:30 and 3:15 it was raining somewhere on New Providence, starting about the third week in May and running until about the end of June. This last 4-5 years it's been hard to know what to expect.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22592
Quoting SLU:


This is wayyyy too favourable a tropical atlantic for June 10th.

Looks more conducive than this time last year.

That's why the wave near 43W is coming to life tonight.



You all are looking at that wave at 10N in the central atlantic? It actually looks kinda organized, NHC may mention this in the 2am TWO.
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Quoting aquak9:

Wasn't it Jeanne/frances that caused damage to Cinderalla's castle, and they actually shut down disney for a coupla days? I had big surgery in between those two storms, and I don't remember a lot.


I don't remember, but mostly we were focussed on picking the oak trees up off people's houses, and getting boats to people who were surrounded with water. Lots of hunters angry about losing all their winter meat when their freezers died. Trying to keep water on the grocery shelves...

This year I put small solar in my cabin, kerosene stove, and hand crank everything else. Couldn't afford the hand crank for the well, so we'll have to store water.

Glad you came thru the surgery OK. :)
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Quoting fatlady99:


me too, caneswatch. But only on the north side. nothing like you folk further down. I remember really holding our breath with ivan. Our power was only out for 3 or 4 days, but in those days we lived down the road from the power company. My current neighbor says they were out of power out here for about two weeks for every storm that year. I think there were three that actually hit us big time, but can't remember the name of the third....(not ivan)

you guys had some major devastation, down your way.


Yes we did. Pretty much every mobile park was severely damaged or destroyed. High-risers on the beach had all of their windows blown out and it looked like something exploded inside of them. The canals overflowed their banks and flooded streets.

Wilma, though in the season after, was much worse. Those in inland PBC who were spared from Frances and Jeanne got heavily hit. The Herbert Hoover Dike that surrounds Lake O suffered cracks caused by Wilma. Around a couple hundred thousand live around the lake. Thankfully no storms have hit since.
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Quoting aquak9:
Taz- I would be happy to have the snow.

Barbamz- no Idea where it came from? uhh..probably run-off water, or fertilizer. My only problems with my garden are the raccoons. And I could probably safely eat them too, if I had to.


I would love to too aquak, but here the darn jet stream and the rain snow line hurts us here in Richmond VA. LOL. Oh how I long for those cold snowy days!
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Quoting sunlinepr:
#413.... this is some amazing stuff.... first time I've seen a hurricane fade from the outside in.... last thing to go is the eye? Wow.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22592
tropics- yeah the chat here about the gulf of guinea, I really like learning something new.

Orca- thank you for bringing that to light. I will make sure to give bitmap kudos the next time I see him.

Wasn't it Jeanne/frances that caused damage to Cinderalla's castle, and they actually shut down disney for a coupla days? I had big surgery in between those two storms, and I don't remember a lot.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 26296
Quoting fatlady99:


me too, caneswatch. But only on the north side. nothing like you folk further down. I remember really holding our breath with ivan. Our power was only out for 3 or 4 days, but in those days we lived down the road from the power company. My current neighbor says they were out of power out here for about two weeks for every storm that year. I think there were three that actually hit us big time, but can't remember the name of the third....(not ivan)

you guys had some major devastation, down your way.

Sorry... brain f*rt... Charley, Jeanne, Frances... that was enough. Time to sign off.
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Quoting SLU:


This is wayyyy too favourable a tropical atlantic for June 10th.

Looks more conducive than this time last year.

That's why the wave near 43W is coming to life tonight.



And which is why it may have to be watched when it enters the Caribbean. This goes for all future TW's too.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


what a great game tonight orca. You like what you see from lu?


So far so good... its far to close for my liking.

I hate having to read pages to catch up...
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Evening all. We're still overcast here from 94L, but not seeing any appreciable rainfall from it since this morning. I can tell the tropical moisture has arrived because the cooler temps / lower humidity was in FRONT of the stormy weather..... lol.....


Quoting Levi32:
A noticeable tropical wave along 42W in the central Atlantic:

Hey, this is the one our local met drew our attention to last night.... Will be interesting to see if it holds together well enough to bring us some more "typical" June storminess later this month.....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22592

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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