Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting caneswatch:


Yeah, nothing should form for the time being.


Where you going?
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Quoting caneswatch:


Mildly favorable where that wave is.


That shear forecast is one week out.
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Quoting aquak9:
mmmm- warm brownies on a friday nght, it don't get much better

TomTaylor- please answer via wumail if you see my post, thank you

(passes Whack-a-Gro stick off to P'cola)

ya'll have a good evening, go in peace
don't worry, I gotcha
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting Grothar:
Hostile



Yeah, nothing should form for the time being.
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Quoting aquak9:
barbamz- (this is SO off-topic folks, sorry) it's sad because so many times, those symptoms are treated initially w/antibiotics...then the Ecoli burst, releasing a flood of toxins, and then you get severe kidney damage.
Link

killer fungus in Joplin.
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Hostile

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Quoting aquak9:
cosmic- these were from scratch, but I gotta box of Ghirardelli in the cupboard.

Grothar- here have a brownie and hush

geepy- keep yer paws offa the edges...ok you can have some...

TomTaylor- I am not smart at weather...so please enlighten me? What all am I missing?
I think you know much more than you think and probably just forgot to mention it.

here are the things I noticed which you didn't mention

-Gulf of Guinea cooler than normal
-MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf warmer than normal
-El Nino oscillation in neutral phase--although much of the waters off of c America and in the Nino 1+2 region are warmer than average
-SAL/dry air lower than normal


...nothing to complicated, just looking at the ol SSTs
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
571. xcool
hehehe 2011 ATL HURRICANESEASON IS BUST oppsss.hey all
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I just looked at the global models and they are all forecasting at least increased moisture in the eastern Caribbean in about a week's time. Perhaps it is in association with this feature? Could be potential for development down the road, once upper-level winds improve? The 18z GFS foresees the start of an anticyclonic environment at 168 hours beginning near Panama.



Just an observation. Doesn't necessarily mean anything.


Mildly favorable where that wave is.
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mmmm- warm brownies on a friday nght, it don't get much better

TomTaylor- please answer via wumail if you see my post, thank you

(passes Whack-a-Gro stick off to P'cola)

ya'll have a good evening, go in peace
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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It's going to be an early night for me. Night y'all!
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Quoting Grothar:
I stopped eating brownies in the sixties
Quoting twincomanche:
Hmmm, I started eating brownies in the sixties.

and so the Cosmic Balance is maintained.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


seems to me conditions are decent out there

shear is a bit high though


I just looked at the global models and they are all forecasting at least increased moisture in the eastern Caribbean in about a week's time. Perhaps it is in association with this feature? Could be potential for development down the road, once upper-level winds improve? The 18z GFS foresees the start of an anticyclonic environment at 168 hours beginning near Panama.



Just an observation. Doesn't necessarily mean anything.
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Quoting oceanbug:


Thank you, Thunder, for your excellent advice. It's nice to see all that common sense in one place. Now, if we could just get everyone to follow it! This year has been much better than last. *knocks on wood*

Thanks for the brownies, Aqua!

I went to Florida State, and I remember the afternoon rains always hit when one of my classes got out. I know there are some posters here who are currently at FSU. Are they messed up there this year, like they are farther south?


There have been no afternoon showers.
Further south is either on fire, dying, or struggling to survive.
pleasant dreams.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Hmmm, I started eating brownies in the sixties.


Another piece of the puzzle! :)
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Look at that dry air moving down from Texas.


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geepy- keep yer paws offa the edges...ok you can have some...
I only wanted one. :)
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Quoting PcolaDan:



Wow maaaan....they had brownies in the sixties?.....far out maaaaan


"special" brownies of course lol
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I mentioned this little swirl this morning. Looks like Adrian's family want to follow him.

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Quoting twincomanche:
Hmmm, I started eating brownies in the sixties.

Quoting Grothar:


I stopped eating brownies in the 60's.


Wow maaaan....they had brownies in the sixties?.....far out maaaaan
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I stated there was a chance it could exceed predictions (at that time predictions were cat 3)
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
where is that low with a 1006mb low going to!!


permanent low, will be staying generally in that area
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grothar- you're probably right, these have marshmallows cooked in'm so they're kinda chewy n gooey...probably give your dentures hell.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


seems to me conditions are decent out there

shear is a bit high though


True. Do you have the shear maps?
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ok, re-reviewing post 456

I see REALLY low shear. Tendencies taking a nose dive. Even very little shear near the AB high. I see SAL, but ok, quite low to non-existant the closer it gets to the ITCZ. So maybe I shoulda looked at it closer.

A big calm steamy bathtub?

TomTaylor?
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Quoting aquak9:
cosmic- these were from scratch, but I gotta box of Ghirardelli in the cupboard.

Grothar- here have a brownie and hush

geepy- keep yer paws offa the edges...ok you can have some...

TomTaylor- I am not smart at weather...so please enlighten me? What all am I missing?


I stopped eating brownies in the 60's.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
go back i did say c3 or c4 when storm first started to get its act together but to me that does not matter i just spot them and track them it turned out exactly as i said it would and is
ah, sorry keep. Hard to keep track of everybodys predictions...we usually get a pretty wide spread on this blog
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting caneswatch:
From NHC's 8pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 3N44W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES JUST W OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W.


seems to me conditions are decent out there

shear is a bit high though
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I posted this earlier today ... Here is my advice for new members...


Thank you, Thunder, for your excellent advice. It's nice to see all that common sense in one place. Now, if we could just get everyone to follow it! This year has been much better than last. *knocks on wood*

Thanks for the brownies, Aqua!

I went to Florida State, and I remember the afternoon rains always hit when one of my classes got out. I know there are some posters here who are currently at FSU. Are they messed up there this year, like they are farther south?
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I am so tired of snow. It snowed here at the house last Monday. Finally we have had three pleasant days of nice weather. Hopefully winter has given up the ghost. I lost all my grape vines, though the roots are starting to send up new shoots, and many of my trees suffered from frost. Six maples are struggling to send out green shoots. We had about 6 or 7 killer frosts in the last two months. Its nice to get back to monitoring the tropics. I have seen just a few Twaves come across so far. Doesn't seem very active.
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From NHC's 8pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 3N44W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES JUST W OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't think anyone forecasted it to be a cat 4. Some said cat 3, but I don't think there were any cat 4 predictions until it was a strong cat 2
go back i did say c3 or c4 when storm first started to get its act together but to me that does not matter i just spot them and track them it turned out exactly as i said it would and is
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe that is florida's rain


It hopefully is.
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cosmic- these were from scratch, but I gotta box of Ghirardelli in the cupboard.

Grothar- here have a brownie and hush

geepy- keep yer paws offa the edges...ok you can have some...

TomTaylor- I am not smart at weather...so please enlighten me? What all am I missing?
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XX/AOI/XL
MARK
10.55N/41.36W


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Mavs ...
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.g if
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Vancouver... 1 win away from the Stanley Cup
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I disagree with SAL being at normal levels.

Just curious, what is normal for the SAL in June? More or less than what's shown in the CIMSS image?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe that is florida's rain

I wish.
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Quoting bappit:
Late Wednesday (local time) NHC was only forecasting cat 3 status for Adrian.

HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
0300 UTC THU JUN 09 2011

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

Adrian sure beat the heck out of that forecast.

HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
0900 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
I don't think anyone forecasted it to be a cat 4. Some said cat 3, but I don't think there were any cat 4 predictions until it was a strong cat 2
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
need to watch 10.55N/41.22W

maybe that is florida's rain
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Quoting Grothar:


I told you before; I'm taking names. :) So what are we arguing about tonight? I mean discussing?

Who makes the best brownies. : )
Edges are the best.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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