Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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That's a candidate for this collection of bizarre stories: Onion-Like Headlines in Real Life

Edit: exempli gratia -- Alton attorney accidentally sues himself

Alton attorney Emert Wyss thought he could make money in a Madison County class action lawsuit, but he accidentally sued himself instead. Now he has four law firms after his money - and he hired all four.

Edit: by the way, the link works great. Thanks!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6011
Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters


Yes, not much to talk about in the Atlantic basin. Any thoughts on that. The general pattern that you used to be able to set your watch on?
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Interesting story you link to. All should read it but I will say that I'm not surprised Accu-Weather is behind this bit of faux science.
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Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5562


Oops....
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters



Can anyone think of a provider that might give more accurate reports?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters

yep, amazing how slow it gets when the Atlantic slows down

Interesting story too, especially since I live in San Diego. we dont get the paper though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters


Cool story. Trouble sleeping?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6011
Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters



by Accuweather they mean....Close guesstimateweather....
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Those were big swings. How could something like that go on for so long?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I thought you were referring to my post on the wind shear in post 573. I didn't see the other one. I would never post anything reminiscent of Monet.


No no no. I was referencing my own. Sorry about the confusion.
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evening doc i will give it a read

hey thanks for stopping by

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Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters



Bah, anyone even remotely familiar with meteorology understands you can't just perform guesswork, at least not like that. Unreal.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters



Those are big swings. Don't understand how it could have gone on that long.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
They need a certified calibration technician OR Looks like there is a hidden agenda there to hide actual high temperatures...

4 out of 25 are reported higher / 21 out of 25 are reported lower

How can there be an Actual Reading column N/A
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X
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Quoting KoritheMan:


At the top, above all the pretty colors.
Quoting KoritheMan:


At the top, above all the pretty colors.


Oh, I thought you were referring to my post on the wind shear in post 573. I didn't see the other one. I would never post anything reminiscent of Monet.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
613. JeffMasters (Admin)
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters

Look at the object that comes from the NW.... That's Isla Socorro...


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Quoting Chicklit:

everything is effed up weatherwise.
unprecedented, historic.
and they still want us to swallow the argument that the earth is a very old planet and there is no way we can determine if what we are experiencing is part of manmade effects.
like i've said before, once the insurance companies get on board with alternative energy, and take it seriously (only because it is hurting their bottom line but who cares), we will begin to see serious efforts toward alternative energy investments that will be less polluting to the planet. And I think with all of the spent fuel rod issues we are currently (not) facing, it is not going to be nuclear.


Chicklit, did you get any rain at all today. We didn't get a drop. Cloudy, but not a drop.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
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Quoting Grothar:


Me, sarcastic. No, seriously, where do you see 168?


At the top, above all the pretty colors.
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Quoting aquak9:
Thank you TomTaylor for your oh-so-sweet patience and kind explanation. My sincerity is heartfelt, and you are always welcomed to brownies.
no problem, asking questions is always good, everybody learns something - even the teacher since it forces the him/her to learn how to explain what they know.

What type of brownies you got?
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606. xcool
brb
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey!

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but because it says 168 at the top.


Me, sarcastic. No, seriously, where do you see 168?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
next update the the winds will be 90 mph or less


90 mph sounds like a good estimate. Despite the satellite appearance, it takes time for the winds of such a powerful system to die down.
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goodnight gracie

ya'll behave ♥
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Quoting Grothar:



Yo, Kori. Where you been? How do you figure it is one week out?


Hey!

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but because it says 168 at the top.
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Most of the FEMA disaster housing inspectors were sent home early from Joplin due to the high levs of asbestos as well.
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599. xcool
Grothar .hey friend ;)
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Quoting oceanbug:


Wow. I hope things turn around soon! For all the drought areas.

Here in Chicago we just have drastic temperature changes and suchlike (Wednesday was 95 and Thursday was 47).

everything is effed up weatherwise.
unprecedented, historic.
and they still want us to swallow the argument that the earth is a very old planet and there is no way we can determine if what we are experiencing is part of manmade effects.
like i've said before, once the insurance companies get on board with alternative energy, and take it seriously (only because it is hurting their bottom line but who cares), we will begin to see serious efforts toward alternative energy investments that will be less polluting to the planet. And I think with all of the spent fuel rod issues we are currently (not) facing, it is not going to be nuclear.
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Link

Zygomycosis
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Quoting aquak9:
Grothar. My dau has a guinea pig named Ryder. I am going to throw Ryder at you.

Gulf.
Of.
Guinea.

See if I EVER EVER EVER offer you brownies again, you old grumpo.

Thank you TomTaylor for your oh-so-sweet patience and kind explanation. My sincerity is heartfelt, and you are always welcomed to brownies.



LOL Say Goodnight, Gracie!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
tom- temp chart was not there the first time I saw that post, there were only three graphics, I see now there are four, last one is SST.

We are all good.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That shear forecast is one week out.



Yo, Kori. Where you been? How do you figure it is one week out?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
Grothar. My dau has a guinea pig named Ryder. I am going to throw Ryder at you.

Gulf.
Of.
Guinea.

See if I EVER EVER EVER offer you brownies again, you old grumpo.

Thank you TomTaylor for your oh-so-sweet patience and kind explanation. My sincerity is heartfelt, and you are always welcomed to brownies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
oh hi tom- thank you for answering- I was only going by what was posted in 456, was not considering neutral phase, SST's or TCHP. (not TCP- no brownie jokes please)

Was not considering temps in guinea gulf, either.
all that adds to active season...but just like brownies, just cause all the ingredients are there, a pile of flour sugar eggs n chocolate does not a brownie make.

We could have an active Season™, yes....just send rain. :)
so was I, there's an SST map in that post...unless it wasnt there when you first saw it and he edited it in there
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Quoting twincomanche:
What's that supposed to mean?


Oh nvm I quoted the wrong person I'll delete that comment.
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Quoting Grothar:


Why don't you ever hey! me anymore?


Hey Grothar!
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Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan hey lol


Why don't you ever hey! me anymore?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
Quoting aquak9:
ok, re-reviewing post 456

I see REALLY low shear. Tendencies taking a nose dive. Even very little shear near the AB high. I see SAL, but ok, quite low to non-existant the closer it gets to the ITCZ. So maybe I shoulda looked at it closer.

A big calm steamy bathtub?

TomTaylor?
pretty much
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Quoting aquak9:
oh hi tom- thank you for answering- I was only going by what was posted in 456, was not considering neutral phase, SST's or TCHP. (not TCP- no brownie jokes please)

Was not considering temps in guinea gulf, either. all that adds to active season...but just like brownies, just cause all the ingredients are there, a pile of flour sugar eggs n chocolate does not a brownie make.

We could have an active Season™, yes....just send rain. :)



It is the Gulf of Guinea, not the Guinea Gulf.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan hey lol


sup?
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Quoting Chicklit:


There have been no afternoon showers.


Wow. I hope things turn around soon! For all the drought areas.

Here in Chicago we just have drastic temperature changes and suchlike (Wednesday was 95 and Thursday was 47).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh hi tom- thank you for answering- I was only going by what was posted in 456, was not considering neutral phase, SST's or TCHP. (not TCP- no brownie jokes please)

Was not considering temps in guinea gulf, either. all that adds to active season...but just like brownies, just cause all the ingredients are there, a pile of flour sugar eggs n chocolate does not a brownie make.

We could have an active Season™, yes....just send rain. :)
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Quoting twincomanche:
Grothar can probably tell us if my history is accurate. I think he was there.


I may still have that book somewhere. I am a collector of old books. Of course they were new when I purchased them.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26052
580. xcool
KoritheMan hey lol
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.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.