Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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679. IKE
...NEAR 0 PERCENT..

94L did nothing but tease Florida...from the south and now the east....


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Very quite day ahead, no model support for development of a cyclone in the Atlantic for the next 10 days.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Here we go again
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quoting Karnakowy:
Hurricane are very dangerous :/ style="max-width: 501px;" src="http://www2.clustrmaps.com/stats/maps-no_clus ters/www.magicznerodzenstwo.ownlog.com-thumb.jpg" alt="" height="1" width="1">
style="max-width: 501px;" src="http://liczniki.org/ms2.php?l=szymon92xx& 1307 622670127" alt="" height="1" width="1">
http://rg.revolvermaps.com/h/m/a/0/ff0000/128/0/6 szbksffjeh.png" ;="" style="border: 0pt none; max-width: 501px;" width="1"


What the **** is this.??????????
Aussie, I have a sinking feeling that I know who this is...Possibly "the one who's name we do not speak"???
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm out for the day, ya'll. Happy wave-watching!



The big picture:

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Quoting Karnakowy:
How big is this hurricane?





Hey, look, at #662, aqua! ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
For West Palm Beach:

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Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters


Thet do that with my power bill also only they round off to the higher number LOL
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I'm out for the day, ya'll. Happy wave-watching!

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514 PcolaDan quoting a news item "Chilean volcanic eruption turns waterway into a steaming torrent
The usually chilly river temperature of six degrees has been raised to an average of around 45 degrees by the eruption.
"

Temperatures are in Celsius. 6degreesCelsius = ~43degreesFahrenheit ... 45deg.C = 113deg.F
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

Well, June storms are not unheard of. That wave is still just breaching 10N, so if it does make something of itself it has a good chance of making some kind of island landfall. Even as a mere Twave, it could be in position at least potentially to bring some rains to the E Car, even the Bahamas / TCI and eventually FL.... but that's a long way down a potential road...

I need to find that comparison site for average location of the ITCZ at a given point in time. In my mind I'm thinking it's usually a bit closer to 10N on average by this time....


This paper, Deconstructing Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone variability: Influence of the local cross-equatorial sea surface temperature gradient and remote forcing from the eastern equatorial Pacific has a graph of the mean ITCZ position between 15-35W, data from the years 1979-1999.

Appears to me the current position is anomalously low.





However, Mcnoldy has a Hovmoller that shows it to be in a more normal position.
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Have to admit.... having a Twave in the forecast seems a bit more normal for June... lol.

Good thing about them... unlike the monsoonal lows, they just keep chugging along, 10mph, raining on everything in their path, but not hanging about for too long. I'd rather have a long series of them than one or two severe storms....
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Good morning to all. That tropical wave is already being mentioned in the San Juan NWS discussions. Here is this morning's excerpt.

LOOKING AHEAD...STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS NEAR
OR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME
OF NEXT WEEK.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, we got 1.1 in of rain in Nassau yesterday.... most in months.


Yep ok, you answered my question. (How much rain did you get.) You all needed that rain so its all good.
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BTW, we got 1.1 in of rain in Nassau yesterday.... most in months.

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Latest 94L

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Morning all.

Quoting HuracanTaino:
Interesting wave for early June this far out in the atlantic I know is not climatologically the time for tropical storm formation here, but nice looking wave nevertheless and shears and SST aren't bad either, of course not saying it would develop.
Well, June storms are not unheard of. That wave is still just breaching 10N, so if it does make something of itself it has a good chance of making some kind of island landfall. Even as a mere Twave, it could be in position at least potentially to bring some rains to the E Car, even the Bahamas / TCI and eventually FL.... but that's a long way down a potential road...

I need to find that comparison site for average location of the ITCZ at a given point in time. In my mind I'm thinking it's usually a bit closer to 10N on average by this time....
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
43 west
Interesting wave for early June this far out in the atlantic I know is not climatologically the time for tropical storm formation here, but nice looking wave nevertheless and shears and SST aren't bad either, of course not saying it would develop.
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Certainly a far cry from what it was just 24-30 hrs ago, amazing... will be interesting to see how quickly it's downgraded, imagine still a hurricane w next advisory, but a TS shortly after...

Adrian gave us a good run!
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Wow, I think Adrian may have set the record for Rapid Weakening, lol! An excellent analysis by Stewart in the last NHC discussion of it's quick demise underway... Can see it decoupled from it's moisture field as well in the CIRA TPW E Pac loop, but all pretty obvious on sat trends...

Dr Jeff, thanks for the story on DV temp record mismanagement. Hard enough to decipher / maintain accurate records between the context of historical obs and varying periods of record, much less seeing this allowed.
Glad someone was curious.
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Sweet rain this afternoon in SW Louisiana. And enough of it to help a bit. I think about half to three quarters of an inch. Slow starting, then hard rain for an hour, then slow ending for another hour. The garden and the yard looked a lot better afterwards. First time in weeks!
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
NEED TO WATCH THIS!!
Definitely looking impressive for a wave in early June
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today is day 11
171 days remain
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KoritheMan:
For anyone who wants to read it, here's my latest blog update on 94L and Adrian. Cheers.
thanks kori
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Quoting sunlinepr:
its done bro going going gone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Precipitable water has risen to near 2 inches over South Florida as seen in the latest sounding data from Miami.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
South Florida should finally get some scattered shower and thunderstorm action Saturday and Sunday as the surface trough in association with Invest 94L lifts northward across the area. Tropical moisture has been building during the past 24 hours and should get the necessary trigger and instability to unleash rains this weekend from the trough.
I hope you're right.
My yard will believe it when it feels it.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5528
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South Florida should finally get some scattered shower and thunderstorm action Saturday and Sunday as the surface trough in association with Invest 94L lifts northward across the area. Tropical moisture has been building during the past 24 hours and should get the necessary trigger and instability to unleash rains this weekend from the trough.
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i do believe if one is operating a station recording weather data that if un read-able it should be listed as N/A no data ever should be entered
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters

Those lazy rangers couldn't drive 3 MILES? And I have always thought of them as REAL public servants.
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XX/AOI/XE
MARK
10.33N/93.86W


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
10.55N/41.41W


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296

Quoting JeffMasters:
Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Jeff Masters

Error link......
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630. beell
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Can anyone think of a provider that might give more accurate reports?


For now, anyone that can type "N/A" or "M"!
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That's a candidate for this collection of bizarre stories: Onion-Like Headlines in Real Life

Edit: exempli gratia -- Alton attorney accidentally sues himself

Alton attorney Emert Wyss thought he could make money in a Madison County class action lawsuit, but he accidentally sued himself instead. Now he has four law firms after his money - and he hired all four.

Edit: by the way, the link works great. Thanks!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.