Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting Grothar:



Nea, I know you don't like me much, but I was wondering what you think of that feature behind Adrian. I have been mentioning it for days and no one responds.


I have been watching it to since it left the coast. Also the T-wave in the CATL.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting aquak9:

Yes Aussie, we need Faye, and her sisters ShaNayeNaye and D'Vonsai too

I think you mean Arlene, Emily, Irene, Maria and Tammy. All as TS or low end Cat 1's.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
710 Grothar "...that feature behind Adrian. I have been mentioning it for days and no one responds."

Been watching it grow between the flow toward 94L and the draft left behind by Adrian, and guessing that it'd be pulled by both northward to dump alotta rain on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Whether it makes a crossing to the Bay of Campeche... and what happens afterwards...
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726. IKE
aquak...I think it's too aggressive too. Maybe we'll both be proven wrong.
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725. Hugo7
Quoting Grothar:



Nea, I know you don't like me much, but I was wondering what you think of that feature behind Adrian. I have been mentioning it for days and no one responds.

Looks like it has a chance in the next 48 hours to be a TS. I'd give it 50% in the next 48 hours.
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Quoting aquak9:

Yes Aussie, we need Faye, and her sisters ShaNayeNaye and D'Vonsai too

LOL
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its a judgement call whether or not a system is annular. about a wk ago a model had something coming out of nw carib. 94 left alittle something there
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
Quoting AussieStorm:

You Florida people need another Fay to wonder around your state for a few days.

Yes Aussie, we need Faye, and her sisters ShaNayeNaye and D'Vonsai too
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Quoting unruly:
I saw that but, when I quoted his post on my blog, that stuff never came up....

Cause it's hidden as an image. I took away the < img from in front of what I posted before. If there is no image then nothing will be shown.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
hey ike- sorry I ran into here so quick without saying g'morning to ya.

yeah, scattered convection...that means two very isolated cells around the gainesville area, and the ocala national forest. I doubt thee will be anything EAST of I95, or WEST of I75.

Intermittent hazy/smoky conditions throughout the NE Fla area have dried us out, I could feel the dry difference this morning when I stepped outside.

So yeah, I believe it, but I think the wording is a little too aggressive on the hopes for precip. It ain't gonna happen.
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Quoting Vincent4989:
It's unusual how Annular Hurricane Adrian , unlike other annular hurricanes, weaken easily and quickly.

Cold SST's did him in. Normally they can deal with shear and dry air but once the waters they feed off cool down then they get starved of there food and wither away. I'm surprised how quick he crumbled.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting AussieStorm:

I clicked on it and it had all that stuff i posted before. Both comments posted by that handle had the same thing. Normally it should just say the comment you are quoting. That handle had extra.
I saw that but, when I quoted his post on my blog, that stuff never came up....
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Quoting aquak9:


it started once about three years ago, lasted about five days. Haven't seen it since.

You Florida people need another Fay to wonder around your state for a few days.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
It's unusual how Annular Hurricane Adrian , unlike other annular hurricanes, weaken easily and quickly.
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715. IKE
Aquak,.,.,,do you believe this....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
425 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IS FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING...ALONG WITH SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TODAY AND SUNDAY. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM... /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUING
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...POINTING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF
WAVES EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That can't be good. When does the normal rainy season start?


it started once about three years ago, lasted about five days. Haven't seen it since.
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713. IKE
Tampa's long-term discussion.....

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...L/W TROUGH WILL BE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN U/L RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
AT UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS. THE DECREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE
GULF WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST EACH DAY. ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
MAKE CONDITIONS VERY HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


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Quoting sporteguy03:

MLB, FL Discussion, so much for 94L and the onset of Rainy season.




CONFIDENCE HAS WANED A BIT THAT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS WILL
APPROACH CLIMO NORMS...AND AS SUCH THOSE ANTICIPATING THE ONSET OF
THE ECFL RAINY SEASON MAY HAVE TO WAIT A BIT LONGER.

Link

That can't be good. When does the normal rainy season start?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
711. IKE

Quoting sporteguy03:

MLB, FL Discussion, so much for 94L and the onset of Rainy season.




CONFIDENCE HAS WANED A BIT THAT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS WILL
APPROACH CLIMO NORMS...AND AS SUCH THOSE ANTICIPATING THE ONSET OF
THE ECFL RAINY SEASON MAY HAVE TO WAIT A BIT LONGER.

Link
Paging jeff9641....
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Adrian is still a hurricane, though just barely at 65 knots. Say your goodbyes now:

EP, 01, 2011061112, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1111W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 0, 20, 1007, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D



Nea, I know you don't like me much, but I was wondering what you think of that feature behind Adrian. I have been mentioning it for days and no one responds.

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Quoting Grothar:


But the Post Office isn't a Government Agency. It is a totally independent branch of the government. One of the largest civilian employers.


While they receive no direct tax dollars, their operations are still controlled by congress. They have wanted to eliminate one day of delivery and modify how their pensions are funded, but so far congress has not acted.
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708. IKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

MLB, FL Discussion, so much for 94L and the onset of Rainy season.




CONFIDENCE HAS WANED A BIT THAT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS WILL
APPROACH CLIMO NORMS...AND AS SUCH THOSE ANTICIPATING THE ONSET OF
THE ECFL RAINY SEASON MAY HAVE TO WAIT A BIT LONGER.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
almost the middle of june already it will be interesting how this tropical wave evolves watching the nw carib too i use to send alot of mail to friends. only bills now.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5001
704. IKE
"""WASHINGTON, May 18 (UPI) -- U.S. Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe
said Congress must act or the postal service would go into default.

"This year, I don't have the cash and I can't make the payment,"
Donahoe said in an interview, referring to a $5.4 billion the service is
obligated to pay toward a retiree health benefit plan.

"And if I did make the payment, I wouldn't have cash to (pay anything else," The Washington Post reported Wednesday.

Donahoe told the Senate subcommittee on postal affairs that the U.S.
Postal Service would fall into default Sept. 30 unless Congress
intervened.

Donahoe said the USPS was on track to lose $8.3 billion during the current fiscal year which ends Sept. 30.""".....

Those darn computers are killing the Postal Service

................................................. .................................................. ......

Summertime in the Florida panhandle....

Today: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after
1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. North wind between 5
and 10 mph.
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From vapor loop (post 625) - looks to me like frontal action is shoving that ULL back down into the Gulf -- straight southwards.

Everybody in Florida turn, face west, and BLOWWWWW!!!
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Quoting P451:


Didn't 190mph Linda go right over that island? If I recall it's uninhabited and known for it's birds.


I think you mean bird!
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Scoot toot and boogie!!
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Quoting emcf30:

We definitely need to change the way we operate for sure. Hope its not to late. The well is going to run dry.


But the Post Office isn't a Government Agency. It is a totally independent branch of the government. One of the largest civilian employers.
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Quoting unruly:
How can you tell if they add extras? I couldn't see it.

I clicked on it and it had all that stuff i posted before. Both comments posted by that handle had the same thing. Normally it should just say the comment you are quoting. That handle had extra.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
698. IKE

Two day QPF.....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ATCF says Adrian is still a hurricane, though just barely at 65 knots. Say your goodbyes now:

EP, 01, 2011061112, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1111W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 0, 20, 1007, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


This one needs removed also.
662. Karnakowy
How big is this hurricane?

I will be on the look out for new handles and checking if they are adding extra's to there comments
How can you tell if they add extras? I couldn't see it.
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Quoting IKE:

Postal Service is going broke too....along with Medicare and Social Security.

Country needs a fix. Badly.

We definitely need to change the way we operate for sure. Hope its not to late. The well is going to run dry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Good Job you guys!! You found another ip tracker/tracer.

Unruly- it's like an evil kitten that follows you home, then gets your ip address, then follows EVERYTHING.

For those of you who are non-members, I definitely would not click on, or purchase from, any of the advertisements.
You have WU mail aqua
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Quoting IKE:

Postal Service is going broke too....along with Medicare and Social Security.

Country needs a fix. Badly.

Bring in a Carbon Tax like our govt is. $26 per tonne. Oh and they said before the last election that was only just in August 2010 they wouldn't be bring it in when the opposition brought it up that they would.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
692. IKE

Quoting emcf30:
This is something we have discussed in the past. Looks like reality now.
Senators worry disaster fund could run dry


Excerpt:
Agency officials haven't yet tallied costs, which brought the number of states hit with major disasters to 40.

But Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., said FEMA estimates it will be short $2 billion to $4.2 billion in the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1.

"Without additional funds, it is very likely this fund will be exhausted as early as January," said Landrieu, who led a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing June 1 on FEMA's funding. "Recovery efforts, therefore, in all 50 states, including those recently harmed by flooding and tornadoes, will cease."
shreveporttimes
Postal Service is going broke too....along with Medicare and Social Security.

Country needs a fix. Badly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Good Job you guys!! You found another ip tracker/tracer.

Unruly- it's like an evil kitten that follows you home, then gets your ip address, then follows EVERYTHING.

For those of you who are non-members, I definitely would not click on, or purchase from, any of the advertisements.


This one needs removed also.
662. Karnakowy
How big is this hurricane?

I will be on the look out for new handles and checking if they are adding extra's to there comments
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Adrian looks like it may be exposed by the next advisory from NHC... looks to me like it is down to 50 mph right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Job you guys!! You found another ip tracker/tracer.

Unruly- it's like an evil kitten that follows you home, then gets your ip address, then follows EVERYTHING.

For those of you who are non-members, I definitely would not click on, or purchase from, any of the advertisements.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


It's embedded tracking. Report to admin and move on.

You mean like the poster wants to know where we are?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is something we have discussed in the past. Looks like reality now.
Senators worry disaster fund could run dry


Excerpt:
Agency officials haven't yet tallied costs, which brought the number of states hit with major disasters to 40.

But Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., said FEMA estimates it will be short $2 billion to $4.2 billion in the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1.

"Without additional funds, it is very likely this fund will be exhausted as early as January," said Landrieu, who led a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing June 1 on FEMA's funding. "Recovery efforts, therefore, in all 50 states, including those recently harmed by flooding and tornadoes, will cease."
shreveporttimes
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Quoting P451:


It's embedded tracking. Report to admin and move on.


This stuff shouldn't be allowed to be embedded in comments.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
683. IKE

Quoting AussieStorm:

Well that blows. Pity, all of Florida needs rain.
It's w-a-y too dry.
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682. IKE
No words needed............


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Quoting IKE:
...NEAR 0 PERCENT..

94L did nothing but tease Florida...from the south and now the east....



Well that blows. Pity, all of Florida needs rain.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting unruly:
Aussie, I have a sinking feeling that I know who this is...Possibly "the one who's name we do not speak"???

I will try to sort him out.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
679. IKE
...NEAR 0 PERCENT..

94L did nothing but tease Florida...from the south and now the east....


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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