Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting Patrap:
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Indeed. Dr. Masters' posts are always greatly appreciated, but it's not as if we're lacking in things to discuss...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
2076. Patrap 2:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

YEAH, WHEN?
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
I do beileve those are just clouds and not related the Volcano. You can see it on the MODIS image...

Link



Do you have a later image, the item I am talking about started about 12:45 UTC?
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2076. Patrap
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
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2065. CybrTeddy 2:00 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
START A NEW BLOG ALREADY!!!! 2000+ posts...REALLY?

I've seen blogs go up to 5,000 last season in one day. This aint nothing.


Yeah I've seen it rack up too. Especially when we are all talking about interesting things like hurricanes. I just think this blog in particular is getting old, that's all.
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Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Is there a second eruption going on? About halfway up the plume, to the north, seems like a second plume starts.
I do beileve those are just clouds and not related to the Nabro Volcano. You can see it on the MODIS image...

Link

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Syntezon has embedded tracking codes. Report and ignore.

These are the embedded codes
< style="max-width: 501px;" src="http://www2.clustrmaps.com/stats/maps-no_clusters/www.magicznerodzenstwo.ownlog.com-thumb.jpg" alt="" height="1" width="1">
< src="http://rg.revolvermaps.com/h/m/a/0/ff0000/128/0/6szbksffjeh.png" ;="" style="border: 0pt none; max-width: 501px;" width="1">

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Is there a second eruption going on? About halfway up the plume, to the north, seems like a second plume starts.
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Complete Update

Stanley Cup....Boston... poof gone... after tonight :)

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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The Volcanism Blog just updated, and now says definitely Nabro (with props to those who called it).

http://volcanism.wordpress.com/

This one, too.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
2068. Bitmap7
Infrared shows the ash plume is on Egypt's border.
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2067. Levi32
CMC Ensemble mean 11-15 day total precipitation shows a lot of water in the Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps hope for the drought-stricken south.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
2066. Levi32
The CMC ensemble mean by Day 14 implies an area of tropical precipitation and low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico. It will be interesting to see if some of the ensembles start to look like the GFS as time goes on. The pattern would favor something like this, but of course model support would be nice. Still a long ways off.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Waltanater:
START A NEW BLOG ALREADY!!!! 2000+ posts...REALLY?


I've seen blogs go up to 5,000 last season in one day. This aint nothing.
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2064. Levi32
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Whens the last time Nabro when off?


Never in known history.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting starbuck02:
I have a 'stupid' question. Why are you guys talking about that volcano eruption? What's so special about it and why hasn't it made headlines?

As I said...stupid question.

Because an eruption of this apparent magnitude has the potential to alter the climate and the weather, specifically that in the Atlantic MDR.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting Neapolitan:
I realize there is still some back and forth as to which volcano this is, but after overlaying Google Earth with a high-resolution (250m) MODIS image of the eruption, I am 100% convinced it is not Dubbi.


Whens the last time Nabro when off?
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I realize there is still some back and forth as to which volcano this is, but after overlaying Google Earth with a high-resolution (250m) MODIS image of the eruption, I am 100% convinced it is not Dubbi.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
START A NEW BLOG ALREADY!!!! 2000+ posts...REALLY?
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2058. RJT185
Thanks Levi.
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I have a 'stupid' question. Why are you guys talking about that volcano eruption? What's so special about it and why hasn't it made headlines?

As I said...stupid question.
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UPDATE 13/06 – 12:1705 UTC : Intermediate overview of the current situation (by Pieter De Leeuw):
The estimated height of the ash cloud is ~13.5km, according to the VAAC. This is an essential piece of information in predicting the current size of the eruption, as the height of the ash cloud often reflects the force behind the eruption. In this case, it would so far be an average-to-large eruption. For comparison; the ashcloud from the Eyjafjallajokull only came up to 9km in April 2010, the more recent Grimsvotn eruption in Iceland forced ash up to 20km in the air, and the 1981 Mt. St Helens eruption’s ashcloud reached 25km into the atmosphere.
There however is some uncertainty with this way of estimating the size of an eruption. The height of the ash-cloud is influenced by many factors, such as prevailing wind, eruption style and eruption angle. In this case strong winds seem to prevail (the plume traveled over 250km in 2 hours after the onset of the eruption). The eruption style seems to be a ‘gray’ eruption (with much ash, little lava) instead of a red eruption (much lava, little ash). The eruption angle is however not possible to determine. Most eruptions occur horizontally, but exceptions do occur, as happened with Mt. St. Helens. A landslide triggered a so called ‘lateral’ eruption. This is a possible scenario, as the earthquakes (up to M5.7) were strong enough to possibly have created landslide.
Also, when estimating an eruption size based on the magnitude of the preceding earthquakes, one should take into account that this volcano (Nabro volcano ER) possibly has been dormant for hundreds to thousands of years.
This could mean that the overlaying ground was not ductile for magma movements, and therefor a massive force was needed to force it’s way up to the surface.
These are all plain speculations based on the information we currently have, and by no means an official report.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Isn't that about 2 weeks out?


7 days from now but in the long range.
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Quoting aspectre:
514 PcolaDan quoting a news item "Chilean volcanic eruption turns waterway into a steaming torrent
The usually chilly river temperature of six degrees has been raised to an average of around 45 degrees by the eruption.
"

Temperatures are in Celsius. 6degreesCelsius = ~43degreesFahrenheit ... 45deg.C = 113deg.F
YOU are the devil!
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Quoting iceagecoming:



Chile volcano: Qantas cancels Melbourne flights
12 June 2011 Last updated at 05:55 ET



Qantas has cancelled all its flights in and out of Melbourne, Australia, because of ash drifting over the Pacific Ocean from a volcano in Chile.

Qantas had already cancelled flights to and from Tasmania and parts of New Zealand. Other airlines have also grounded flights in the region, stranding thousands of travellers.

Australian airline Qantas said it was too dangerous to fly through the ash.

The Puyehue-Cordon-Caulle volcano has been erupting for more than a week.

Strong winds have carried the fine particles of ash from the volcano to southern New Zealand and Australia at between 6,000 and 10,600m (20,000 and 35,000ft).

Couple more volcanoes in the Northern Hemisphere
and it could get very tricky flying anywhere.

Sorry but that info is old.
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2051. Levi32
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 13th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
2050. srada
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS 06z..


the GFS loves the NC coast for some reason..it has been spinning storms off our coast in different type frames in the last runs..
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Chile volcano: Qantas cancels Melbourne flights
12 June 2011 Last updated at 05:55 ET



Qantas has cancelled all its flights in and out of Melbourne, Australia, because of ash drifting over the Pacific Ocean from a volcano in Chile.

Qantas had already cancelled flights to and from Tasmania and parts of New Zealand. Other airlines have also grounded flights in the region, stranding thousands of travellers.

Australian airline Qantas said it was too dangerous to fly through the ash.

The Puyehue-Cordon-Caulle volcano has been erupting for more than a week.

Strong winds have carried the fine particles of ash from the volcano to southern New Zealand and Australia at between 6,000 and 10,600m (20,000 and 35,000ft).

Couple more volcanoes in the Northern Hemisphere
and it could get very tricky flying anywhere.
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2047. Skyepony (Mod)
The slide in China may have been caused by illegal mining.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
It appears that my proclamation of last week that the rainy season had officially started may have been a bit premature.

Kinda like the championship celebration the Miami Heat held prior to the season.



Old man Dirk is the man. I have no respect for the Heat.

How's the Volcano situation looking? Just how big is this and it does it look to play a role in the upcoming hurricane season possibly?
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GFS 06z..
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2044. Skyepony (Mod)
Japan~ Heavy rain triggered by an active rain front and low pressure system continued to fall in the Kyushu region in southwestern Japan on Sunday, leaving a man missing in Kagoshima Prefecture and leading a local government in Kumamoto Prefecture to briefly recommend residents to evacuate. The Japan Meteorological Agency continued to warn of mudslides and flooding, as heavy rain is expected to fall intermittently on parts of the archipelago's western half through early Monday. In the city of Satsumasendai in Kagoshima Prefecture, Mutsuo Arimura, a 78-year-old farmer, went missing after he went to his rice fields near his home on Saturday, the police said Sunday. A series of landslides occurred in Nagasaki Prefecture, leaving a firefighter injured while he was helping local residents to sandbag their homes in the city of Unzen on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Kumamoto city government in Kumamoto Prefecture issued a recommendation for residents living near rivers and hills to evacuate, warning of mudslides and flooding.

After a wide range of areas experienced downpours Saturday, a low pressure system that developed into a rain front over the East China Sea passed over the Kyushu region in southwestern Japan and is expected to move toward the Izu island chain south of Tokyo around daybreak Monday, the agency said. JR Kyushu said, due to heavy rain, it has suspended services on the Kyushu Shinkansen bullet train line between Shintamana Station in Tamana and Kumamoto Station, both in Kumamoto Prefecture. Services are also suspended between Shinyachiyo Station in Yachiyo, Kumamoto Prefecture, and Izumi Station in Izumi, Kagoshima Prefecture. The Pacific side of southwestern to western Japan is likely to see heavy rainfall of between 50 to 70 millimeters per hour, and the weather agency said heightened vigilance is required, particularly in Kyushu where large amounts of rain also fell Saturday. Around 200 mm of rainfall is forecast to fall in southern Kyushu and 150 mm in Shikoku and the Kinki region in the 24 hours to 6 p.m. Monday.
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It appears that my proclamation of last week that the rainy season had officially started may have been a bit premature.

Kinda like the championship celebration the Miami Heat held prior to the season.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 533
2042. Skyepony (Mod)
China~ More than 100 people in nearly 60 vehicles were trapped after a rain-triggered landslide Monday interrupted traffic on a highway in Tibet autonomous region. The debris of the landslide, which happened around 8 am, buried about 30 meters of the Sichuan-Tibet Highway in Tibet's Nyingchi county, said rescue squad leader Liu Wanlin. Twenty-five rescuers are attempting to clear the debris with an excavator and two loading machines, as well as free those trapped individuals and get them to safety, Liu said. He added that it's hard to estimate when traffic will resume, as the cleanup efforts have been hampered by the risk of further geological calamities.
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2041. Skyepony (Mod)
Pakistan~ Heavy rain and hailstorm destroyed standing crops spreading over thousands of acres of land in Bajaur Agency on Sunday night. According to Met office, a total of 18 millimetres of rain was received which also broke the backbone of the sweltering heat in the region. Trees, signboards on roadside and pasted on building walls have also fallen due to heavy storm which badly affected the gardens of apricots, watermelon, melon, vegetables and standing crops. Food stuff was also destroyed due to accumulation of rain water which inundated shops and houses. The routine life was also badly affected due to hailstorm in the agency. The boundary walls of dozens of houses collapsed while power supply was suspended in several parts due to uprooting of electricity polls. The local people demanded of the government to provide compensation for losses they received.
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2040. Skyepony (Mod)
Situation Update No. 16
On 13.06.2011 at 03:28 GMT+2

A new wildfire is burning in the Huachuca Mountains in southern Arizona. Marylee Peterson with the Coronado National Forest says it is called the Monument Fire. The fire was spotted at about 1:15 PM Sunday. Peterson says it started in the Coronado National Memorial So far, approximately 70 to 80 acres have burned. The fire is about ¼ mile from the Forest Service Boundary. Crews are fighting the fire both on the ground and from the air, with at least four aircraft and eight Hotshot crews. Coronado National Memorial Visitors Center has been closed because of the fire. Peterson says the fire could cross into Ash Canyon, so there are notices for residents to stand-by for possibility of evacuation. At this point, it is unknown how many residents may be impacted.
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2039. Skyepony (Mod)
That new little blob in the EPAC might be our next AOI. The wave approaching South America looks vigorous but like it's going to hit land.
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2038. emcf30
This video details reports surrounding the eruption.

Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1936
Quoting robj144:


Didn't it erupt in 1861?
Dubbi did; largest documented African eruption to this point, apparently. However, Nabro, the larger volcano in this complex of volcanos, has not erupted in the historical record.
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2036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good morning bloggers
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Quoting hydrus:
GFS 384 hours..lol..
That would be prayers answered if it happens. Have a great day!
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11256
2033. robj144
Quoting emcf30:
UPDATE 13/06 – 12:1705 UTC : Intermediate overview of the current situation (by Pieter De Leeuw):
The estimated height of the ashcloud is ~13.5km, according to the VAAC. This is an essential piece of information in predicting the current size of the eruption, as the height of the ashcloud often reflects the force behind the eruption. In this case, it would so far be an average-to-large eruption. For comparison; the ashcloud from the Eyjafjallajokull only came up to 9km in April 2010, the more recent Grimsvotn eruption in Iceland got up to 20km, and the Mt. St Helens reached 25km.
There however is some uncertainty with this way of estimating the size of an eruption. The height of the ashcloud is influenced by many factors, such as prevailing wind, eruption style and eruption angle. In this case strong winds seem to prevail (the plume travelled over 250km in 2 hours after the onset of the eruption). The eruption style seems to be a ‘grey’ eruption (with much ash, little lava) instead of a red eruption (much lava, little ash). The eruption angle is however not possible to determine. Most eruptions occure horizontally, but exceptions do occur, as happened with Mt. St. Helens. A landside triggered a so called ‘lateral’ eruption. This is a possible scenario, as the earthquakes (up to M5.7) were strong enough to possibly have created landslide.
Also, when estimating an eruption size based on the magnitude of the preceding earthquakes, one should take into account that this volcano (Nabro volcano ER) possibly has been dormant for hundreds to thousands of years.
This could mean that the overlaying ground was not ductile for magma movements, and therefor a massive force was needed to force it’s way up to the surface.
These are all plain speculations based on the information we currently have, and by no means an official report.


Didn't it erupt in 1861?
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earthquake-report.com has a poster who says geologists in the area are attempting to get to the site of the eruption from Djibouti and Jeddah; hopefully we will see some on-site imagery if they do get there.
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2031. JRRP

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2030. emcf30
UPDATE 13/06 – 12:1705 UTC : Intermediate overview of the current situation (by Pieter De Leeuw):
The estimated height of the ashcloud is ~13.5km, according to the VAAC. This is an essential piece of information in predicting the current size of the eruption, as the height of the ashcloud often reflects the force behind the eruption. In this case, it would so far be an average-to-large eruption. For comparison; the ashcloud from the Eyjafjallajokull only came up to 9km in April 2010, the more recent Grimsvotn eruption in Iceland got up to 20km, and the Mt. St Helens reached 25km.
There however is some uncertainty with this way of estimating the size of an eruption. The height of the ashcloud is influenced by many factors, such as prevailing wind, eruption style and eruption angle. In this case strong winds seem to prevail (the plume travelled over 250km in 2 hours after the onset of the eruption). The eruption style seems to be a ‘grey’ eruption (with much ash, little lava) instead of a red eruption (much lava, little ash). The eruption angle is however not possible to determine. Most eruptions occure horizontally, but exceptions do occur, as happened with Mt. St. Helens. A landside triggered a so called ‘lateral’ eruption. This is a possible scenario, as the earthquakes (up to M5.7) were strong enough to possibly have created landslide.
Also, when estimating an eruption size based on the magnitude of the preceding earthquakes, one should take into account that this volcano (Nabro volcano ER) possibly has been dormant for hundreds to thousands of years.
This could mean that the overlaying ground was not ductile for magma movements, and therefor a massive force was needed to force it’s way up to the surface.
These are all plain speculations based on the information we currently have, and by no means an official report.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1936
Well, I gotta run, and no guarantee I'll be able to get on before 3 p.m. today.... :o(.... please keep the info coming. Guess I will catch up later...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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