Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting pottery:

That's interesting.
But it is locating the Cell Tower, not the location of the computer.
I am several miles from where that location is.

That's what I mean by almost correct. I am on a hard-line connection. yet it couldn't find where I am.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting pottery:

That's interesting.
But it is locating the Cell Tower, not the location of the computer.
I am several miles from where that location is.


exactly... it located the provider... it cannot locate your exact location.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Found this site the map was almost correct.


Oh sure.. now your going to freak everyone out who clicks on that :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Found this site the map was almost correct.

That's interesting.
But it is locating the Cell Tower, not the location of the computer.
I am several miles from where that location is.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24911
Quoting Neapolitan:

It depends. Some people logging on via, say, their corporate computer have the same IP each time. It's only home users who rotate through a set of IP addresses blocked out by their internet provider (whodo that, of course, so regular home users can't host websites from their home computers, though there are many ways around that constraint).

At any rate, even if the tracker doesn't harvest your IP for a later attack, excess hits to his server to fetch the embedded object artificially inflate traffic to that server, driving up the tracker's rankings in search engines and website traffic analyzers.

Again: just put the user on ignore; that'll make his work pointless, and will eventually drive him away--sooner rather than later, if we're lucky.

We just need to be careful of new handles.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I thought IP # changed each time you log on.

It depends. Some people logging on via, say, their corporate computer always have the same IP address. It's only home users who rotate through a set of IP addresses blocked out by their internet provider (whodo that, of course, so regular home users can't host websites from their home computers, though there are many ways around that constraint).

At any rate, even if the tracker doesn't harvest your IP for a later attack, excess hits to his server to fetch the embedded object artificially inflate traffic to that server, driving up the tracker's rankings in search engines and website traffic analyzers.

Again: just put the user on ignore; that'll make his work pointless, and will eventually drive him away--sooner rather than later, if we're lucky.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Not necessarily.
If you are using dial up.... yes
If you are using a home network with a cable modem or something similar... it "may" change if you reboot the cable modem.

BUT, since most people are on a network like Shaw or something large like that... you will get the same IP back when you reboot the modem.

usually your IP will only change if the provider reboots.. or does an IP shuffle.






This also explains why you cannot do a IP Ban like everyone keeps asking for... you would have to ban the entire IP spectrum of a given provider for it to be successful.

I hope this helps...as I will probably get a 24 hour vacation for a non weather related post :)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Not necessarily.
If you are using dial up.... yes
If you are using a home network with a cable modem or something similar... it "may" change if you reboot the cable modem.

BUT, since most people are on a network like Shaw or something large like that... you will get the same IP back when you reboot the modem.

usually your IP will only change if the provider reboots.. or does an IP shuffle.





Found this site the map was almost correct.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I thought IP # changed each time you log on.


Not necessarily.
If you are using dial up.... yes
If you are using a home network with a cable modem or something similar... it "may" change if you reboot the cable modem.

BUT, since most people are on a network like Shaw or something large like that... you will get the same IP back when you reboot the modem.

usually your IP will only change if the provider reboots.. or does an IP shuffle.




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Speaking of tracking. Check this out if you use Facebook. They currently have a database that recognizes your face from photos you upload. If you put a photo on your wall it can now automatically place the names on it. Interesting Video.
Nightline
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I thought IP # changed each time you log on.

Now I know why I feel so Temporary all the time...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24911
Quoting Orcasystems:


No.
Just allows them to know what general area you are in based on your IP provider. It does allow them to know your specific IP, so they can use other programs to try and attack your firewall to try and gain access.... but a IP tracker alone is not capable of gaining access to your computer.

I thought IP # changed each time you log on.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting Orcasystems:


No.
Just allows them to know what general area you are in based on your IP provider. It does allow them to know your specific IP, so they can use other programs to try and attack your firewall to try and gain access.... but a IP tracker alone is not capable of gaining access to your computer.



Many thanks!!
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Quoting presslord:
OK...I never claimed to be very bright...so I need some guidance from someone smarter than me...which is pretty much all of you...

What happens if one clicks on an "IP tracker"? Can someone then steal my data or damage my computer? Or does it just enable them to know which porn sites I visit?


No.
Just allows them to know what general area you are in based on your IP provider. It does allow them to know your specific IP, so they can use other programs to try and attack your firewall to try and gain access.... but a IP tracker alone is not capable of gaining access to your computer.

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Kinda looks like a small system trying to spin up down around Columbia to me but I'm not a Meteorologist either so it very well could nothing.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That can't be good. When does the normal rainy season start?


It usually starts at the end of May. The rainfall coverage we have had lately in Florida is what is usually is in mid May.
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Rare Freak Storm hits Belize
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that Karnakowy? Hopefully Admin will take care of them soon. We don't need that stuff on here.

FWIW, such trackers needn't be clicked on to do their job; just the simple act of putting them in a comment causes your browser to contact the tracker's server, revealing your IP address, etc., while also inflating the visitor count to the tracker's website. It's no different than anyone posting an image; it's just more nefarious.

Best bet is put the user on ignore, then minus and hide the offending comments until they're deleted when the user is banned.

Some people have no class. But karma will catch up with them; it always does. Always.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

to trace an IP address or do an IP address lookup


yea...but what's the point of that? Or potential threat to me?
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Quoting presslord:
OK...I never claimed to be very bright...so I need some guidance from someone smarter than me...which is pretty much all of you...

What happens if one clicks on an "IP tracker"? Can someone then steal my data or damage my computer? Or does it just enable them to know which porn sites I visit?

to trace an IP address or do an IP address lookup
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
"They" are we,,as the members control the site with the controls..ADMIN is not real time.

Keep clicking the ! and the comment is removed..admin will deal with it in due time as well.
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Quoting Grothar:
A lot of dry air ahead of the wave in the CATL. Very high wind sheer and very dry are in the Easter Caribbean. Has anyone ever seen any development in the eastern Caribbean this time of year? I don't recall any.


Very True.
I was looking at the WV loops earlier and zoomed right in to Trinidad.
A small cloud passed over but is gone now.

Will be interesting to see how that wave deals with the dry air. And how it behaves once it passes the Islands.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24911
OK...I never claimed to be very bright...so I need some guidance from someone smarter than me...which is pretty much all of you...

What happens if one clicks on an "IP tracker"? Can someone then steal my data or damage my computer? Or does it just enable them to know which porn sites I visit?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
A lot of dry air ahead of the wave in the CATL. Very high wind sheer and very dry are in the Easter Caribbean. Has anyone ever seen any development in the eastern Caribbean this time of year? I don't recall any.



There's an Easter Caribbean now? XD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes it was, looks like they took care of it.

I was thinking of a more permanent basis.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
752. srada
Quoting Grothar:
A lot of dry air ahead of the wave in the CATL. Very high wind sheer and very dry are in the Easter Caribbean. Has anyone ever seen any development in the eastern Caribbean this time of year? I don't recall any.



Good Morning Everyone!! Gorgeous Saturday morning here in NC..whats that blob I see near SC? Has 94L left something behind?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that Karnakowy? Hopefully Admin will take care of them soon. We don't need that stuff on here.


Yes it was, looks like they took care of it.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
#741 IP tracker, don't click on it.

Is that Karnakowy? Hopefully Admin will take care of them soon. We don't need that stuff on here.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
A lot of dry air ahead of the wave in the CATL. Very high wind sheer and very dry are in the Easter Caribbean. Has anyone ever seen any development in the eastern Caribbean this time of year? I don't recall any.

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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
its this map old!!


its wasn't to old.. I made it about 5 minutes before I posted it.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Huh?! What did I ever do (or not do) that makes you say that? Geez, I guess my comment about humor wasn't communicated well. ;-) I suppose I should have gone to greather lengths to make it known I was directing it at a very small group of people who in my personal opinion lower the value of the blog, and not all members in general. Mea culpa..


Interesting little thing, isn't it? It doesn't seem to have much spin to it, but that would be easier to tell if ASCAT hadn't missed it on both up and down passes. It has a lot of persistent lightning, so that's something. SSTs are certainly warm enough (as Adrian showed). And shear in the area is expected to remain low. But the models I've looked at show nothing much; have you found anything different?


Just yanking your chain, Nea. I hadn't seen anyone attack you for a few days and didn't want you to feel left out. LOL Just my early attempt at sarcasm.


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#741 IP tracker, don't click on it.
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Good Morning all.
A cloudy day here with scattered showers. (you wouldn't think that, looking at the images!)
11n 61w.

Nice wave in the Atl. looks to be holding up well.

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24911
Quoting aspectre:
710 Grothar "...that feature behind Adrian. I have been mentioning it for days and no one responds."

Been watching it grow between the flow toward 94L and the draft left behind by Adrian, and guessing that it'd be pulled by both northward to dump alotta rain on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Whether it makes a crossing to the Bay of Campeche... and what happens afterwards...


Hey, anybody who can spell Isthmus of Tehuantepec correctly has to know what they are talking about. Thanks, spec!
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Quoting Grothar:



Nea, I know you don't like me much...

Huh?! What did I ever do (or not do) that makes you say that? Geez, I guess my comment about humor wasn't communicated well. ;-) I suppose I should have gone to greather lengths to make it known I was directing it at a very small group of people who in my personal opinion lower the value of the blog, and not all members in general. Mea culpa..

Quoting Grothar:



...I was wondering what you think of that feature behind Adrian. I have been mentioning it for days and no one responds.

Interesting little thing, isn't it? It doesn't seem to have much spin to it, but that would be easier to tell if ASCAT hadn't missed it on both up and down passes. It has a lot of persistent lightning, so that's something. SSTs are certainly warm enough (as Adrian showed). And shear in the area is expected to remain low. But the models I've looked at show nothing much; have you found anything different?
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We remember the lost and those who suffered...but we will never forget.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
w central fl is fine


Go ahead, rub it in! Why don't ya!
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Could this be a bad omen?
The same list used this year was used in the 2005 season with the exception of Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney, which replaced Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma.

We all remember 2005, some of us don't want to remember it also.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting Hugo7:
Looks like it has a chance in the next 48 hours to be a TS. I'd give it 50% in the next 48 hours.


Yeah. At least it will give us something to watch next week.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
its this map old!!

yes
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting Orcasystems:

Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






Good game from the Canucks today mate, awesome goalie.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Blog Update!

Part 1/3: Adrian rapidly weakening

Comments are appreciated as usual.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860

Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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Quoting AussieStorm:

Well that blows. Pity, all of Florida needs rain.
w central fl is fine
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Quoting Grothar:



Nea, I know you don't like me much, but I was wondering what you think of that feature behind Adrian. I have been mentioning it for days and no one responds.


I have been watching it to since it left the coast. Also the T-wave in the CATL.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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