Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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I have a question - why do no cyclones form in the south Atlantic? I've read shear, but why would that be higher than the north ATL?

Just curious.
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Watch this One. It is a slow mover, moderate-size storm, has a developing eye, situated over 30C (86F) SSTs, expected to affect low-lying parts of Gujarat, and moving toward an upper anticyclone w/ lower shear.
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"Well Adrian, you've fought hard...
you've been a great contestant on the show...
we appreciate all your efforts...
but, you're fired!"

;)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



it is a TS

Hey Taz, we had another tracked bomber again. You had any rain yet or is mother nature still being a tease.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
well organised tropical wave this early in the eatl. should bring some squally weather by tuesday week
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2687
start:
AL, 94, 2011060218, , BEST, 0, 150N, 803W, 20, 1008, DB,

Current:
AL, 94, 2011061106, , BEST, 0, 258N, 783W, 25, 1009, DB,
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821. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT of the blob N of Hispaniola.



ESPI fell again to -1.11
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


agreed, I noticed that this mourning. I don't feel to strongly with it though. It looks like it is headed for land and if it were to veer northward, it would likely be sheared away like the last system. I have heard that some computer models are suggesting something might try to get going later on with the trough in the gulf. First it has to get cut off though there.
Shear is low
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm not sure, though I don't believe Grothar was old enough to vote.

Nah, ATCF says it first became something to them on June 2 at 2:00 PM EDT. So, what, one hour short of nine full days?

Thanks. It seems like forever....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
818. JRRP
Quoting Hurrykane:



Nice high amplitude inverted "V" signature

yea
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Boy thrown a quarter-mile by tornado describes journey

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting pottery:
How long has 94L been around?
When did it get designated?
I cant remember.

I'm not sure, though I don't believe Grothar was old enough to vote yet.


ATCF says it first became something to them on June 2 at 2:00 PM EDT. So, what, one hour short of nine full days? Don't know that that's any type of record, but it's certainly on the long side of things...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
How long has 94L been around?
When did it get designated?
I cant remember.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
Quoting Tazmanian:



it is a TS

yes I know I found out after I posted that
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the way E-Pac Hurricane Adrian COC is now naked to some extent the main area of convection is now off to the NE



it is a TS
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by the way E-Pac Hurricane Adrian COC is now naked to some extent the main area of convection is now off to the NE
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Quoting HCW:


If it's still there at 2am they will mention it


Wind Shear in the area near Panama is almost no existence. Increases to around 20kts just north west of there before increasing even more over the North West Carribean.

Note: I have been finding that wind shear has decreased dramatically over the W.Gulf and have heard the trough of low pressure there might become cut off there. That would be something to watch. My guess is that the decrease in wind shear is an encouraging sign that something might be trying to get going soon. I know the people i West Texas need the rain.
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809. HCW
Quoting tropicfreak:



Could be mentioned in the 2pm TWO wunderkid.


If it's still there at 2am they will mention it
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well the upper level anticyclone is right on top



Could be mentioned in the 2pm TWO wunderkid.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Area moving north off Panama looks interesting


agreed, I noticed that this mourning. I don't feel to strongly with it though. It looks like it is headed for land and if it were to veer northward, it would likely be sheared away like the last system. I have heard that some computer models are suggesting something might try to get going later on with the trough in the gulf. First it has to get cut off though there.
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Quoting msphar:
So I take it nothing is going on down in the tropics.

It's drizzling here...
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Area moving north off Panama looks interesting

well the upper level anticyclone is right on top
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good day all
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
So I take it nothing is going on down in the tropics.
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802. HCW
Quoting PcolaDan:
A lone blob and a weird line of storms in the GoM



It started off the coast at 530 am and managed to spawn at least one waterspout. Good luck with the rain today :) We are around 19 inches below normal here in Mobile, AL




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Area moving north off Panama looks interesting
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.. Bueller?
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A lone blob and a weird line of storms in the GoM

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Quoting aquak9:
before you start to scare people...

Ok, Orca, no problem.

Let's just all welcome the tracker/tracer posts with open arms.

I'll put down my artillery and walk away in peace.

You are right to raise the issue.
But it is not a real problem-- this time--- apparently.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
Quoting AussieStorm:

So is this person trying to force people away from this site?

He did not insinuate that, Aussie...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

So is this person trying to force people away from this site?


No they are just trying to inflate their rating on google search engines by the hits.

last comment... or I am going to get a 24 hour vacation.. not to mention I have to go to work :(
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Quoting AussieStorm:

So is this person trying to force people away from this site?

No; he (or she) is A) gathering user location info and B) driving traffic to his (or her) site surreptitiously. Not super harmful, but sneaky, underhanded, manipulative, and against both normal netiquette and WU forum rules.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO.. I didn't mean it that way... some people who are not entirely computer computer literate... scare easily about what some people can do on the internet to them. Ip tracking is relatively innocent. Every single website they go to uses IP tracking... and cookies to track them.

Some people in a panic.. actually pull the plug on their computers in a panic. instead of backing out of a site.

So is this person trying to force people away from this site?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting aquak9:
before you start to scare people...

Ok, Orca, no problem.

Let's just all welcome the tracker/tracer posts with open arms.

I'll put down my artillery and walk away in peace.


ROFLMAO.. I didn't mean it that way... some people who are not entirely computer computer literate... scare easily about what some people can do on the internet to them. Ip tracking is relatively innocent. Every single website they go to uses IP tracking... and cookies to track them.

Some people in a panic.. actually pull the plug on their computers in a panic. instead of backing out of a site.
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before you start to scare people...

Ok, Orca, no problem.

Let's just all welcome the tracker/tracer posts with open arms.

I'll put down my artillery and walk away in peace.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25938
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery old friend... you have been on a world of your own for quite sometime... surprised you have just noticed :)

Yeah! This is what is so Wunderful about this Blog..
You get to find out all kinds of stuff and whatnot....

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
Quoting aquak9:
Good info on the tracker/tracers. Still for those who may own or run a small business via the net, it's no minor matter..

And these tracker/tracers may not be coming from an actual human, they could be bot-forced.

What bothers me is that all the screen names are non-American names. like Sadek and Krnaworky, or whatever it was. And one of the tracker sites is Polish.

This is not a bored kid, sitting at home, playing around.


OK, last computer related post, before you start to scare people...

If you run a small business with a website.. there is no need for an IP tracker... there are far more effective ways of tracking you... and they are simple easy commands... the easiest is "whois"

That will not only give you a location... but in most cases a name and phone number... of at least the owner or system admin.

This is all public knowledge
example:

WUNDERGROUND.COM WHOIS
Updated: 1 second ago
Registrant:
The Weather Underground
PO Box 3605
Ann Arbor, MI 48106
US

Domain Name: WUNDERGROUND.COM

Administrative Contact:
Ferguson, Jeff Email Masking Image@WUNDERGROUND.COM
The Weather Underground
PO BOX 3605
ANN ARBOR, MI 48106-3605
US
734-994-8824 fax: 734-994-8919

Technical Contact:
Schwerzler, Chris Email Masking Image@WUNDERGROUND.COM
Weather Underground
PO Box 3605
Ann Arbor, MI 48106-3605
US
415-543-5022 x 104 fax: (415) 543-5044


Record expires on 31-Mar-2019.
Record created on 30-Mar-1995.
Database last updated on 11-Jun-2011 11:08:22 EDT.

Domain servers in listed order:

AUTH1.DNS.COGENTCO.COM 66.28.0.14
AUTH2.DNS.COGENTCO.COM 66.28.0.30
AUTH4.DNS.COGENTCO.COM 80.245.32.74
AUTH5.DNS.COGENTCO.COM 80.91.64.50
DNS1.WUNDERGROUND.COM 64.243.175.2


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787. JRRP




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Good info on the tracker/tracers. Still for those who may own or run a small business via the net, it's no minor matter..

And these tracker/tracers may not be coming from an actual human, they could be bot-forced.

What bothers me is that all the screen names are non-American names. like Sadek and Krnaworky, or whatever it was. And one of the tracker sites is Polish.

This is not a bored kid, sitting at home, playing around.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25938
Quoting AussieStorm:
Could this be a bad omen?
The same list used this year was used in the 2005 season with the exception of Don, Katia, Rina, Sean, and Whitney, which replaced Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma.

We all remember 2005, some of us don't want to remember it also.
.....no omen,the nhc list of Tc's repeats every 6yrs,most strong tc's that have significant impacts to life and/or property are retired and replaced with new names,so its not a omen and means nothing imo,I'm thinking a yr more like 04,not alot of storms but i'd bet somewherre along the gulf coast gets atleast one landfall
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Found this site the map was almost correct.


IP trackers will only show the location of the service provider in most cases because they use dynamic addresses. If they ever reboot there equipment, or the IP has a short lease life then your home IP changes.
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Quoting pottery:

Well earlier I was just Temporary.
Now I am Temporary and Unfound.

This is getting worse all the time, man.


Pottery old friend... you have been on a world of your own for quite sometime... surprised you have just noticed :)
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Quoting pottery:

Well earlier I was just Temporary.
Now I am Temporary and Unfound.

This is getting worse all the time, man.


so it appears your remarks are unfounded...
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Quoting pottery:

Well earlier I was just Temporary.
Now I am Temporary and Unfound.

This is getting worse all the time, man.

ROTFLMAO
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Orcasystems:


exactly... it located the provider... it cannot locate your exact location.

Well earlier I was just Temporary.
Now I am Temporary and Unfound.

This is getting worse all the time, man.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
Quoting pottery:

That's interesting.
But it is locating the Cell Tower, not the location of the computer.
I am several miles from where that location is.

That's what I mean by almost correct. I am on a hard-line connection. yet it couldn't find where I am.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.