Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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The lack of Saharan Dust could play a role, in an early cape Verde season. 1996 and 2008 had a Cape Vede TC in July.
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Eastern Africa very active...
Link





From May 21-31, 2011, the ITF experienced a significant northward advancement, in particular at its eastern segment. A major proportion of the ITF is now ahead of the climatology mean position due to enhanced southerlies in the Gulf of Guinea region and moisture convergence from the Congo Air Boundary. The mean western portion of the ITF was located approximately at 15.4 degrees North and led the climatology mean by 0.3 degrees. The eastern portion of the ITF was approximated at 14.9 degrees North, which was ahead of the climatology mean position by two degrees. Figure 1 shows the current ITF position relative to the climatology position for the third dekad of May and its previous position during the second dekad of May. Figures 2 and 3 are time series, illustrating the latitudinal means of the western and eastern portions of the ITF, respectively, and their evolutions since the start of April.

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There have been 3 named storms ever recorded in the SATL. Catarina, Anita, and Arani.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181
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Grothar, could you please post the TC development link? I hope it's zoomable.
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Quoting Grothar:
Look at all that dry air over the SW US. They really need a break.




I think the whole south needs a break. Its gotten pretty bad.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Cyclones do form in the SATL. Cyclone Catarina
More here also.


Cyclones also form in the Mediterranean Sea also.
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Levi,how active do u see july being?
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870. wpb
only spotty showers over souyh dade me need tons more rain. drought extreme. outlook for rain glommy.
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Quoting Grothar:
Bet no one has ever seen this before. A map that shows where all tropical storms form. Take note of the South Atlantic. Levi's assessment was pretty accurate.


there is one problem with that map mainly in the S atlantic. check wikipedia on South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
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Quoting Grothar:
Look at all that dry air over the SW US. They really need a break.




Its the Southwest, they usually don't get a break anyway. Its not weird to have severe drought in a Climate that is already dry.

What is weird is to be so dry in a wet climate like here, that is weird.
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Quoting Grothar:
Look at all that dry air over the SW US. They really need a break.




What is up with the troughs of low pressure this year? There have been so many and I don't remember so many back to back before (Points to area of North Atlantic off the coast of Novia Scotia)
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TC 1: That is West India not West Africa. Ok now it makes more sense.
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and Adrian a Cat 4 Hurricane for the first EPAC/ATL storm of the season, not too bad!
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ne1 know when that trof in GOM is forecast to lift out, or Im going modeling...lol
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Quoting Grothar:
Bet no one has ever seen this before. A map that shows where all tropical storms form. Take note of the South Atlantic. Levi's assessment was pretty accurate.



So we haven't seen a storm form in this area before? Lot of confusion because of it. In west central Africa??? Am I thinking of the same storm or are my bearings wrong?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah adrian is giving up he's ghost now thats it for this one i don't think this is tropical anything now
def toast RIP!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
nice pic Keeper
yeah adrian is giving up he's ghost now thats it for this one i don't think this is tropical anything now
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


decoupling now not even a tropical storm anymore as far as iam concearn
nice pic Keeper
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Bet no one has ever seen this before. A map that shows where all tropical storms form. Take note of the South Atlantic. Levi's assessment was pretty accurate.

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Quoting Levi32:


Well, tropical waves can contribute to development early in the season if they travel far enough west, but they don't generally develop on their own this early in the season. We have to wait until later for that to start happening.

The blob near Panama appears to be regular thunderstorm activity along the monsoon trough which is almost always near Panama, and is unlikely to be a threat for development.


Thank you, Levi.
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Central Africa loop. There is what appears is a wave in that area.

Link
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decoupling now not even a tropical storm anymore as far as iam concearn
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Hi Levi-

Would that mean a wave would have an opportunity to develop, right? How about that mass off the coast of Panama in SW Carib?


Well, tropical waves can contribute to development early in the season if they travel far enough west, but they don't generally develop on their own this early in the season. We have to wait until later for that to start happening.

The blob near Panama appears to be regular thunderstorm activity along the monsoon trough which is almost always near Panama, and is unlikely to be a threat for development.
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Quoting Grothar:


Is that good or bad for development?


That would generally favor development. Very few June storms have ever developed without the MJO in our part of the world.
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Quoting Levi32:
Some ensemble sets are bringing the MJO right into phases 8 and 1 in two weeks or so, which would bring upward motion back to the Atlantic.







Hi Levi-

Would that mean a wave would have an opportunity to develop, right? How about that mass off the coast of Panama in SW Carib?
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Quoting Grothar:


Dan, I could have translated that for you. Since you found that translator button you don't need me anymore.


LOL You weren't around. And Google Chrome is always polite enough to ask me if I want something translated. :)
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Quoting Levi32:
Some ensemble sets are bringing the MJO right into phases 8 and 1 in two weeks or so, which would bring upward motion back to the Atlantic.







Is that good or bad for development?
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Look at all that dry air over the SW US. They really need a break.


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Some ensemble sets are bringing the MJO right into phases 8 and 1 in two weeks or so, which would bring upward motion back to the Atlantic.





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Quoting PcolaDan:
translated from Icelandic

Airlines that fly to and from New Zealand were this morning warned that flights could be disrupted due to ash from the volcano, Puyehue, Chile, is about 9,000 miles away. Winds have carried the ash from the mountain of 9,400 kilometers and is expected to ashes to detect over New Zealand at the weekend. Then it may affect the air next week or so.
Aviation authorities in New Zealand to consider possible adjustments in flight plans, but not to stop because of this flight.


Dan, I could have translated that for you. Since you found that translator button you don't need me anymore.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm not sure, though I don't believe Grothar was old enough to vote yet.


ATCF says it first became something to them on June 2 at 2:00 PM EDT. So, what, one hour short of nine full days? Don't know that that's any type of record, but it's certainly on the long side of things...


Hey,I saw that! :) I still have my "Vote IV TIBERIVS and CLAVDIVS" buttons.
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translated from Icelandic

Airlines that fly to and from New Zealand were this morning warned that flights could be disrupted due to ash from the volcano, Puyehue, Chile, is about 9,000 miles away. Winds have carried the ash from the mountain of 9,400 kilometers and is expected to ashes to detect over New Zealand at the weekend. Then it may affect the air next week or so.
Aviation authorities in New Zealand to consider possible adjustments in flight plans, but not to stop because of this flight.
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843. beell
Quoting pottery:

Thinking about this and... why not?


No mechanism in place to generate them. The temperature gradient between the Sahel and equatorial Africa that gives rise to the African Easterly Jet and from that, the perturbations in the AEJ known as easterly waves.
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Hey Pottery, what you think about the blob east of Costa Rica moving north into the Carribean. I think we will be talking about this shortly.Oh by the way hope all is well in your corner of this world.
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Just throwing this out there.... on this date in 2005, Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall in Florida.
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Quoting pottery:

Thinking about this and... why not?

OK, post 831 covered that.
tks.
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Quoting beell:
I would add the lack of tropical waves also.

Thinking about this and... why not?
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Quoting AussieStorm:



ARB 01/2011/01 Dated: 11.06.2011

Time of issue: 2000 hours IST


Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-Gujarat coasts.


Latest satellite imageries and surface observations indicate that a depression has formed over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-south Gujarat coasts and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 11th June 2011, near lat. 20.00 N and long. 71.50 E, about 180 km northwest of Mumbai, 150 km of southeast of Veraval and 700 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan). It may intensify further and move slowly northwestwards initially.


Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over Konkan, Saurashtra and south Gujarat region during next 36 hours. Isolated extremely heavy falls may also occur over Konkan during next 24 hours. Isolated heavy fall would occur over Madhya Maharashtra during next 36 hours.


Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off Maharashtra - south Gujarat coasts during next 48 hours.


Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off these coasts.


The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.



Next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 12th June, 2011.


TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY, 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED EYE FEATURE WITH GROWING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FEEDER BAND. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
REMAINS DETACHED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE GUJARAT PENINSULA AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36.

THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH WBAR ON
THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND RELIES HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102221Z JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 062230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 8 FEET.
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Quoting beell:
I would add the lack of tropical waves also.


That's a good point.
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835. beell
I would add the lack of tropical waves also.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Cyclones do form in the SATL. Cyclone Catarina
More here also.


And yeah. They do form rarely. I'm glad they do, as it's pretty awesome to see it happen down there, at least when they're not making landfall where people don't suspect such things to bring them danger.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Watch this One. It is a slow mover, moderate-size storm, has a developing eye, situated over 30C (86F) SSTs, expected to affect low-lying parts of Gujarat, and moving toward an upper anticyclone w/ lower shear.



ARB 01/2011/01 Dated: 11.06.2011

Time of issue: 2000 hours IST


Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-Gujarat coasts.


Latest satellite imageries and surface observations indicate that a depression has formed over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-south Gujarat coasts and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 11th June 2011, near lat. 20.00 N and long. 71.50 E, about 180 km northwest of Mumbai, 150 km of southeast of Veraval and 700 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan). It may intensify further and move slowly northwestwards initially.


Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over Konkan, Saurashtra and south Gujarat region during next 36 hours. Isolated extremely heavy falls may also occur over Konkan during next 24 hours. Isolated heavy fall would occur over Madhya Maharashtra during next 36 hours.


Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off Maharashtra - south Gujarat coasts during next 48 hours.


Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off these coasts.


The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.



Next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 12th June, 2011.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
I have a question - why do no cyclones form in the south Atlantic? I've read shear, but why would that be higher than the north ATL?

Just curious.


Well, there are a couple of possible reasons. One may be that the ITCZ doesn't ever get south of 5S on average during the height of the southern hemisphere summer. In the northern hemisphere, the extra land around the equatorial areas draws the ITCZ up to 10N or higher at times, giving us a focused convergence area for TC genesis.

Another possible reason could be that the South American monsoonal circulation is too powerful. The thunderstorm activity over central Brazil during their summer creates upper ridging aloft over them. This is counteracted by what may be a TUTT-like trough over the southern tropical Atlantic (and remember, the winds flow the opposite direction around ridges and troughs down there).

The orientation of this trough on average brings upper convergence and thus sinking air to the areas just east of South America. These areas have plenty warm enough water for tropical development, greater than 27C during the summer down to 23S. However, it may be that this sinking air on the outskirts of the South American monsoonal circulation doesn't allow much tropical convection to form over water.

Once you get to the other side of the upper trough, farther east, where upper divergence lies, the SSTs have dropped off to 26C or lower in the eastern boundary current of the Southern Atlantic that brings cool water up the west coast of Africa (the Benguela Current). Therefore, tropical development is more unlikely in the eastern part of the ocean. The ITCZ is also much farther north due to the presence of Africa in that region drawing it away from the south Atlantic waters.

Again, I'm not sure, and am no expert on that area, but those are just a couple guesses.

Feb-Apr Climatological 200mb winds:

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Quoting CanesfanatUT:
I have a question - why do no cyclones form in the south Atlantic? I've read shear, but why would that be higher than the north ATL?

Just curious.

Cyclones do form in the SATL. Cyclone Catarina
More here also.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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