Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting aquak9:
That is sad, Rita. I fear Florida is gonna end up like central Texas in a year or two.


Those were well established with a good root system, can tell by looking at them by how big they were, and they had ground cover on the ground which should of protected the soil moisture even more for them. And it's only getting worse.

And...1-2 inches of rain fell late this morning just a few miles from me and this location.....nothing for us
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Quoting Levi32:


That's an empirical probability model based on a perfectly "well-behaved" MJO. It is not a dynamic forecast.

I checked out the dynamic models also, that is what my statement was off of; they all show a somewhat similar trend. Also the last activity that occurred wasn't predicted by any model, and some still do not have the correct history relative to the magnitude.
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That is sad, Rita. I fear Florida is gonna end up like central Texas in a year or two.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26250
Quoting IKE:
Tampa shows no chance of rain til Tuesday. Orlando...30% tomorrow...20% on Monday.


I'm south of Orlando and NWS saying 30% all week. Also reads scattered and isolated...so I'm thinking just the default June forecast.

LOL

Quoting StAugustineFL:


Hey Aqua. I'll be visiting family in Missouri and Iowa in a couple of weeks. Maybe I'll see rain then.


If so, throw a lasso around that cloud and drag it home with you!

Well, folks...don't think I'm getting any liquid refreshment from the sky tonight, so I'm gonna head inside and try the fridge.

Enjoy your evening!
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Here is a pic I just took of some Crape Myrtles that are dead because of lack of rain. To the left there are green crape myrtles that are fine, only because of water sprinklers.

Never seen anything like this before

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Exposure enhanced animated GIF Puyehue-Cordón Caulle June 11 ENHANCED

CREDIT: Raving from the big think Eruptions blog.

.
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Quoting RobDaHood:
Ugh!
All my rain keeps getting shifted one day to the right!
Also, my wind has shifted from NE back to E.
So now it is hot enough, and I'm sweating so much that maybe if I just go walk around the yard the grass will grow!
:o)


Rob, off topic but after I joined WU you helped me with posting images and links. Just wanted to let you know I appreciate it. Thank you.
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StAug- can you bring me back some fresh corn?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26250
Quoting aquak9:
ike- my NWS office got outsourced to Utah, remember?

Hi StAug


Hey Aqua. I'll be visiting family in Missouri and Iowa in a couple of weeks. Maybe I'll see rain then.
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According to NCEP reanalysis, the last very dry decade in Florida was the 1970s. However, that decade had the opposite multidecadal signals (PDO and AMO) that we have now, which suggests that they may not be the root of the issue. It's an intriguing problem.
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MODIS today - Chile volcano

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.
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917. IKE
Tampa shows no chance of rain til Tuesday. Orlando...30% tomorrow...20% on Monday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting PcolaDan:


Grass doesn't like salt water. ;>)

Good point...been working outside most of the day. Might be compromising my ability to think straight.

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Quoting RobDaHood:
Ugh!
All my rain keeps getting shifted one day to the right!
Also, my wind has shifted from NE back to E.
So now it is hot enough, and I'm sweating so much that maybe if I just go walk around the yard the grass will grow!
:o)


Grass doesn't like salt water. ;>)
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There is no such thing as rain in Florida, you either have hot and sunny or sunny and hot. Pick your choice.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24456
Ugh!
All my rain keeps getting shifted one day to the right!
Also, my wind has shifted from NE back to E.
So now it is hot enough, and I'm sweating so much that maybe if I just go walk around the yard the grass will grow!
:o)
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Quoting StAugustineFL:
I'm buying a Winnebago and will live day-to-day where the wet stuff falls from the skies.

From the Jax NWS: BEST I CAN SAY ON THE PRECIPITATION IS THE MODELS DO SEEM TO WANT
TO BRING US INTO A SUMMER MONSOON-SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVECTIVE
REGIME NEXT WEEK. GOOD FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS BUT THAT MAY LEAVE
COASTAL AREAS ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN FOR RAINFALL.


Guess I'm outta luck.


NWS Melbourne Says basically the same thing. Damn...

HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE HAS WANED A BIT THAT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS WILL
APPROACH CLIMO NORMS...AND AS SUCH THOSE ANTICIPATING THE ONSET OF
THE ECFL RAINY SEASON MAY HAVE TO WAIT A BIT LONGER.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1950
That's what I do PcDan....we're very dry here, and havent had rain since the tornado outbreak..but we dont have the serious drought conditions of others...
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Quoting alfabob:
I'm thinking MJO will be back quicker than the models are saying. Looks very similar to what they did last time, as they were saying that no activity was going to occur. Even the plots of previous activity were incorrect, and some still are. Around June 18th-20th seems like a good estimate for when activity will pick up, models say a week or two later though.



That's an empirical probability model based on a perfectly "well-behaved" MJO. It is not a dynamic forecast.
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ike- my NWS office got outsourced to Utah, remember?

Hi StAug
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26250
I'm thinking MJO will be back quicker than the models are saying. Looks very similar to what they did last time, as they were saying that no activity was going to occur. Even the plots of previous activity were incorrect, and some still are. Around June 18th-20th seems like a good estimate for when activity will pick up, models say a week or two later though.

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Okay, I may not be getting any rain, but I can root for the other end of the state.

RAIN BABY RAIN

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906. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB01-2011
23:30 PM IST June 11 2011
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB01-2011 over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-South Gujarat coasts remained practically stationary and lays centered near 20.0N 71.5E, or about 180 km northwest of Mumbai (India), 150 km southeast of Veraval (India/Gujarat), and 700 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan). It may intensify further and move slowly northwestward.

As of 12:00 UTC/17:30 IST
-----------------------
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. Winds are stronger over the southern part under the influence of the monsoon surge. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center. Satellite imagery indicates gradual organization of convection during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated intense to very intense convection (Cloud Top Temperature is -77C) lies over Arabian Sea between 16.5N to 21.0N and east of 65.5E.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate (10-20 knots). The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 24.0N. Sea surface temperature is also favorable for intensification as it is 30-32C over the region. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence are also favorable for intensification. However, the ocean heat content is less than 60 kj/cm2 over the region which does not favor intensification. The MJO is lying in phase 4, but with lower amplitude (>1) according to both statistical and dynamical forecast, it is expected to be in phase 4 and 5 next 3-4 days. It may not be favorable for amplification of convection and hence intensification of the system.

There is no consensus by the numerical weather prediction models for intensification and movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is expected to intensify gradually and move initially northwestward during the next 24 hours.
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The daily pop-ups ....sorry Aqua, wish you could get a pop-up,too :] Maybe today...



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I'm buying a Winnebago and will live day-to-day where the wet stuff falls from the skies.

From the Jax NWS: BEST I CAN SAY ON THE PRECIPITATION IS THE MODELS DO SEEM TO WANT
TO BRING US INTO A SUMMER MONSOON-SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVECTIVE
REGIME NEXT WEEK. GOOD FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS BUT THAT MAY LEAVE
COASTAL AREAS ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN FOR RAINFALL.


Guess I'm outta luck.
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902. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
ike- I told you this morning, they were being overly aggressive with the wording. Heck, twenty percent is the new zero percent.
lol. I've noticed before that that office is too aggressive at times.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
ike- I told you this morning, they were being overly aggressive with the wording. Heck, twenty percent is the new zero percent.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26250
Best chance we've had in weeks.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Southwest wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


and only chance until next Thursday.
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899. IKE
Aquak...your chance of rain the next 2 days...down to 20%!! What happened to the "unsettled weather" the met talked about this morning?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
898. IKE
Tomorrow's forecast for here.....inland Florida panhandle....

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
after 1pm. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Calm wind
becoming southwest between 5 and 10 mph. New rainfall amounts between a
tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in
thunderstorms.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
ElCon- and if we have no tropical development to affect the state? Like it's been for the past two years? Then what?

hi ike, whoa 0.10, good job on the rain guage.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26250
Plus there is always this, it seems that they modified the baseline for arctic ice volume anomaly; so this is actually worse than it seems when comparing to the older graphs.

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Quoting ElConando:


It may be Tropical development that gets us out of this drought in the end it seems.

Possibly. Let's just hope that tropical development doesn't "get us out of this drought" the way that, say, last month's tornado took care of Joplin's overgrown tree problem. :-\
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
894. IKE
BREAKING NEWS....

I just picked up .10 inches of rain in my rain gauge! WOOHOO!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting TomTaylor:
SSTs don't get warm enough there for true tropical cyclones. So I'm guessing by cyclones you meant sub tropical or extratropical cyclones

...Unless the SSTs needed for topical cyclones is no longer 26c/80f


Oh yes I meant that lol.
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Quoting aquak9:
I don't know if the drought in Fla will ever be able to right itself.


It may be Tropical development that gets us out of this drought in the end it seems.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


No, not everything points to July, the weather in Florida is weather more typical behind schedule, more like May.

Yes but was it really hot right before it returned to normal? Hit 98F 2 days in a row in MI, which is record territory for July, not early June. Seems to me like we keep hitting record temperatures (that are more typical of the next months records), then drop below average for a couple of days due to cold fronts. Anyways, Florida is about the only state in that region which is at normal temperatures right now, its not going to stay that way. Large plume of moisture and heat is coming from the SE; plus you can see there isn't much cold air left.

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I don't know if the drought in Fla will ever be able to right itself.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26250
Quoting alfabob:
Even though the calendar says it is June, almost everything else points to mid-late July. I wouldn't be surprised if multiple storms form throughout June, even CV. Climate change involves an extended hurricane season, just as a decreasing supply of cold air (plus additional heat from the equator) leads to shear dropping quicker after the winter season.


No, not everything points to July, the weather in Florida is weather more typical behind schedule, more like May.
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During a Hurricane, flooding or tornado strike, household chemicals can spill over and contaminate our surroundings... So this info can be helpfull...

Eight Substances Added to U.S. Report on Carcinogens, Including Formaldehyde, May Increase Cancer Risk

ScienceDaily (June 10, 2011) - The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has added eight substances to its Report on Carcinogens, a science-based document that identifies chemicals and biological agents that may put people at increased risk for cancer.

The industrial chemical formaldehyde and a botanical known as aristolochic acids are listed as known human carcinogens. Six other substances -- captafol, cobalt-tungsten carbide (in powder or hard metal form), certain inhalable glass wool fibers, o-nitrotoluene, riddelliine, and styrene -- are added as substances that are reasonably anticipated to be human carcinogens. With these additions, the 12th Report on Carcinogens now includes 240 listings. It is available at http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/go/roc12.

Link
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Is 2001 an analog year for this hurricane season?? It looks like it could be.

Just wondering.
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Plenty off LLC for something to pop-up; EPAC trying to form another one off of the monsoon, south Caribbean has some vorticity, 94L, whatever is next to 94L, the LLC NE of PR and that wave..
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The Wallow Fire in Arizona & New Mexico has now burned more than 430,000 acres, or roughly 672 square miles (equivalent to a rectangle 26 miles on each side). That's a jump of more than 20,000 acres in one day, one of the least windiest since the fire began. With today's resurgent strong winds, however, it's expected the fire will surpass in size 2002's Rodeo-Chediski Fire (which, at 469,000 acres, was Arizona's largest ever). Due to the added acreage, containment dropped back down to 5% from yesterday's 6%.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Even though the calendar says it is June, almost everything else points to mid-late July. I wouldn't be surprised if multiple storms form throughout June, even CV. Climate change involves an extended hurricane season, just as a decreasing supply of cold air (plus additional heat from the equator) leads to shear dropping quicker after the winter season.
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Quoting islander101010:
and we all might be dead before another


given that Arani and Anita happened in two consecutive years I doubt it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24456
Quoting ElConando:


Cyclones also form in the Mediterranean Sea also.

Interesting....
January 1995.. This last system developed a well-defined eye, and a ship recorded 85 mph (140 km/h) winds, along with an atmospheric pressure of 975 mbar. Although it had the structure of a tropical cyclone, it occurred over 61 F (16 C) water temperatures, suggesting it could have been a polar low.[27]

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Quoting ElConando:


Cyclones also form in the Mediterranean Sea also.
SSTs don't get warm enough there for true tropical cyclones. So I'm guessing by cyclones you meant sub tropical or extratropical cyclones

...Unless the SSTs needed for topical cyclones is no longer 26c/80f
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
There have been 3 named storms ever recorded in the SATL. Catarina, Anita, and Arani.
and we all might be dead before another
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4862
The lack of Saharan Dust could play a role, in an early cape Verde season. 1996 and 2008 had a Cape Vede TC in July.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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