Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh I know. But in this case, as alluded to previously, wind shear is forecast to remain strong throughout the next week. Pre-94L conditions were actually forecast to be very favorable for tropical cyclogenesis after the first few days, and before that, what shear there was did not affect it too much because it did not move.
I am not saying it is probable but this time of year I still think it is possible. Stranger things have happened without model support.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
you sure you want my 24/7 cloudy, non rainy, 60 degree weather?

Is be happy to swap with you though
60 degrees? We wont see that until October if we are lucky. Let me see everything is dead around here, all ponds are just about dryed up, animals dont have anything to drink, farmers have lost everything, have had several wildfires around past few months, cracks in the ground big enough to get your foot stuck in. I have had 12 days of over 100 with 30 other days of 95 plus. Ok I guess I will trade with you. :) In Texas the darn Sun can be beyond Brutal.
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Just a final passing thought on your disturbing drought in the southern US. I as far as I can determine would think it a reasonable idea to set up at state level some sort of study groups to look at places in the world like the Mediterranean coasts and Eastern Australia where savagely hot dry summers with occasional torrential winter deluges are the homes to all kinds of plants which survive without irrigation.
I am becoming gravely concerned with your problem and the increasing pressure on water supplies from 3 sources.1 droughts,2 population growth and 3 salt migration to your wells. you may have to introduce enforceable controls on the use of the environment to combat desertification.
Good night everybody from a cold Northern Europe.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Kori, how many models DID show development in the Caribbean last week ? The only thing that developed was a broad area of low pressure. I am sure you can use models for guidance but I certainly would not rely on them 100%.


Oh I know. But in this case, as alluded to previously, wind shear is forecast to remain strong throughout the next week. Pre-94L conditions were actually forecast to be very favorable for tropical cyclogenesis after the first few days, and before that, what shear there was did not affect it too much because it did not move.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20597
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I would love to swap with someone, anyone, low 73, high 101.
you sure you want my 24/7 cloudy, non rainy, 60 degree weather?

Is be happy to swap with you though
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June is generally not very active. Take 2004 for example, first storm formed on July 31st and we all know what that season was like. May be quiet for a while, may not be. Expecting a busy season either way. That is if this dry air gets kicked out of the atmosphere.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Maybe not but I am sure something can form without model support.


Normally I'd agree, but vertical shear is forecast to remain quite strong by the GFS throughout the forecast period (seven days). Barring any holes in the shear like with Tropical Storm Chris in 2006, I don't foresee a tropical cyclone developing in such an environment.

The stage still isn't really set for development in the Atlantic. This is typical for June, and if you recall, even during 2008, one of our analog years, we did not witness a June storm (unless you count Arthur, which was only active for a few hours).
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20597
Quoting Grothar:


A tad unusual for this time of year, isn't it. Sound more like Northern California.
well, it is usually cloudy through most of June in southern California along the coast due to the heat low created in the desert which draws in the marine layer (these really low level clouds which produce no rain, maybe a little drizzle, but mostly just block the sun). However, these clouds usually evaporate and disappear by noon and we have a sunny afternoon.

Unfortunately, this year has been much more extreme. It's been overcast all day long and temps are certainly below average.

I believe the cold phase of the PDO is mostly responsible for this. It's keeping our SSTs cooler off of California and as a result we are cooler along the coast. Additionally, because the SSTs are unusually cold, not dissimilar to the cooling of the gulf of guinea, the temp gradient between the desert and ocean is stronger than usual and as a result winds are a little stronger, and the marine layer clouds over the ocean are being drawn further inland, keeping us extra cloudy.

Oh well, hopefully things will be nice by July and August. This overcast pattern will likely continue for the most of June despite a minor warm up forecasted next week
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The global models do not show any development over the next week.
Kori, how many models DID show development in the Caribbean last week ? The only thing that developed was a broad area of low pressure. I am sure you can use models for guidance but I certainly would not rely on them 100%.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
A clean board at NHC. Nothing expected in next 10-14 days. Perhaps we are in for a quiet June? We watch with anticipation.


I don't see anything on the global models worth mentioning. We're quiet for at least another 7 - 10 days.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20597
Quoting KoritheMan:


The global models do not show any development over the next week.
Maybe not but I am sure something can form without model support.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
You can grow olives in NW Florida I HAD 2 TRESS I grew from very small tress.I bought from Shoreline Foods in Pensacola in 2006 and they had Olives and where about 10 feet tall with Olives last year!!


That's where I got my stick (tree) from.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't really think there is a chance but surprisingly shear has really dropped down and NHC does show a low in that area although I am sure it is the Colombian Low which is permanent or semi-permanent in that area.


The global models do not show any development over the next week.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20597
A clean board at NHC. Nothing expected in next 10-14 days. Perhaps we are in for a quiet June? We watch with anticipation.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
so there's a 0.2%, or 1 in 500, chance that a tropical cyclone will form in that tiny little rectangle?

Im liking our chances!
I don't really think there is a chance but surprisingly shear has really dropped down and NHC does show a low in that area although I am sure it is the Colombian Low which is permanent or semi-permanent in that area.
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1014. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:
978- gro- thank you for reposting that, I had not seen it before



You know my memory doesn't go that far back. Was I being nice?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Quoting Grothar:


A tad unusual for this time of year, isn't it. Sound more like Northern California.
I would love to swap with someone, anyone, low 73, high 101.
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1012. Grothar
Quoting TomTaylor:
lucky

Id love to swap weather conditions with you.

Highs been in the low-mid 60s and overcast for the last week now.

I don't have a pool, but my neighbors is in the low 70s.

Pretty crummy weather for summer in Southern California


A tad unusual for this time of year, isn't it. Sound more like Northern California.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
You can grow olives in NW Florida I HAD 2 TRESS I grew from very small tress.I bought from Shoreline Foods in Pensacola in 2006 and they had Olives and where about 10 feet tall with Olives last year!!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Tiniest bit of purple beginning to show up in the SW Caribbean.
so there's a 0.2%, or 1 in 500, chance that a tropical cyclone will form in that tiny little rectangle?

Im liking our chances!
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1009. aquak9
978- gro- thank you for reposting that, I had not seen it before
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 25935
Quoting Grothar:


We overdid it at the pool today. Got a little burned. Pool temp at 88.


Owww.

I played golf on a Par 61 course this morning, and shot a 67.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553



Tiniest bit of purple beginning to show up in the SW Caribbean.
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Quoting Grothar:


We overdid it at the pool today. Got a little burned. Pool temp at 88.
lucky

Id love to swap weather conditions with you.

Highs been in the low-mid 60s and overcast for the last week now.

I don't have a pool, but my neighbors is in the low 70s.

Pretty crummy weather for summer in Southern California
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 112333
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



zzzzzz....
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1004. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:


Where'd you get that?

USDA Forest Service. Has mapping MODIS Products. We used it a lot for when the Feds came in and took over large incidents. This is the public version.
Link
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1003. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:


Where'd you get that?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
1002. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Very well Grothar, how about you?


We overdid it at the pool today. Got a little burned. Pool temp at 88.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Quoting Grothar:



How you doing, Canes?


Very well Grothar, how about you?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1000. emcf30
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Quoting pottery:

Thanks for the response...
Yes, 'completely irrelevant' is too strong. Bad of me, that. "Less Relevant" would be closer to the truth.
And regarding your second part, I think that one of the problems that forecaster have to deal with is that the dynamic keeps changing...

There is no denying that conditions have certainly changed pretty fast recently. (and they have in the past too)
Now the challenge is to figure out what effect those changes have/will have.

And by the time we do that, they have changed again...

The current and recent amazing weather in the US is surely cause for furrowed brows and scratching of heads!
yes, the atmosphere is definitely changing. And also our ability to observe the atmosphere is very poor. Upper air soundings are only done twice a day over very tiny selected locations. Other than that we have satellites, which are very useful for observing the atmosphere, but they still only give a limited view of the atmosphere, and surface observations.

So we are quite limited in our ability to accurately observe the atmosphere
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Quoting caneswatch:
A calm time on the blog, I see. First one in a while.



How you doing, Canes?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Speaking of missing people, anyone seen PensacolaDoug? Hasn't been around.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Quoting PcolaDan:


My olive stick survived this past winter just fine. (doesn't qualify as a tree) Planted it last summer. Haven't seen any growth except for some new leaves, but it's still alive.


Sorry Dan, but I thought you put the stick in the olive after it was grown? I didn't know they grew that way.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Quoting Jedkins01:


Its the Southwest, they usually don't get a break anyway. Its not weird to have severe drought in a Climate that is already dry.

What is weird is to be so dry in a wet climate like here, that is weird.
Here in Texas May and June are our wettest months of the year, we get close to 30 percent of our yearly rainfall in these 2 months and so far alot of this area has not received any rain and haven't for 8 to 10 months. If Texas does not get good rains in May and June then it will take a tropical system to get decent rains, next rainy month is September. I believe in the Southwest part of the USA the monsoon season is coming up so they have something to look forward in the near future.
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Quoting Grothar:


Didn't know that.

Yea it was interesting reading. BTW cool image ya posted
of the fires.
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Quoting Ivanhater:
The GFS is still advertising a storm in the Gulf in the long range. It is interesting looking at the evolution of this. A westward moving tropical wave slows in the Western Caribbean as it approaches the Yucatan and rounds the edge of the upper high. The end of June might be interesting.



Is lala-land on that timrframe,but let's see if as the days go by,more models join GFS on that scenario.
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A calm time on the blog, I see. First one in a while.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting stormpetrol:
I'm 46 years old and I can't remember it being this hot here in Grand Cayman in my life,just didn't get enough rain here from 94L.
I disagree. I said to someone yesterday that the only thing this heat reminds me of is 2004.
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Hello everyone, I just wanted to say that I washed my car twice today! The neighbors wondered what I was up to. lol. No rain! I remember well the 1950s when it rained everyday in the summer, in ST. Pete FL. Around 3pm the rain would come. Seems things are changing in our world! I live in Hernando county Fl now, and rain seems to go around my house. I really hope that everyone gets the rain that they need, without a name! Stay safe everyone.
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Quoting aquak9:
Thank you plaza- I don't think almonds or olives will grow in North Fla, too cold of winter...maybe further south...


My olive stick survived this past winter just fine. (doesn't qualify as a tree) Planted it last summer. Haven't seen any growth except for some new leaves, but it's still alive.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, he found the place anyway, didn't he. So stop complaining.


I never Complain,,and YOUR the one who told Napoleon he was a "short pompous SOB"..


I still Miss the Russians though
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Speaking of posting the globe, has anybody seen Miami lately?
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985. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Quoting Grothar:


You couldn't wait until I posted it, could you? You little twit! P.S. Have you see that someone is now posting our globe?


No way. :o
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Quoting TomTaylor:
thanks for that link, never seen it before

idk about completely irrelevant, but I do agree with what you are saying. The atmosphere and it's interaction with the Earth's other systems are ridiculously complex. I honestly don't think we will ever have it all perfectly mapped out.

Thanks for the response...
Yes, 'completely irrelevant' is too strong. Bad of me, that. "Less Relevant" would be closer to the truth.
And regarding your second part, I think that one of the problems that forecaster have to deal with is that the dynamic keeps changing...

There is no denying that conditions have certainly changed pretty fast recently. (and they have in the past too)
Now the challenge is to figure out what effect those changes have/will have.

And by the time we do that, they have changed again...

The current and recent amazing weather in the US is surely cause for furrowed brows and scratching of heads!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Thank you plaza- I don't think almonds or olives will grow in North Fla, too cold of winter...maybe further south...


Its all a bit debatable! In the Alpujarra mountains to the south of Granada/Sierra Nevada,Spain the winter climate at around 5,000ft is well below freezing and in the summer it gets to 40/c = about 103F, all sorts of trees and plants grow there and its a paradise in spring/summer, a study of these areas would produce in my opinion suitable varieties for Florida, their summer rainfall is almost zero from April until October.
I'm not splitting hairs on this but change and adaption is going to be the watchword for some areas in the future, In my opinion now people want too much beauty in their surroundings without considering extremes.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/

Will have to fix the space in "death".


You couldn't wait until I posted it, could you? You little twit! P.S. Have you see that someone is now posting our globe?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Q: What will TS Adrian be at the next advisory?

A.) 50 mph

B.) 45 mph

C. 40 mph

D. 35 mph or lower

I choose C or D.

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Quoting Patrap:
No ,,actually he was still kinda on the run from the Spanish at that time.

He sold them Bum sextants to Columbus..


Hey, he found the place anyway, didn't he. So stop complaining.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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