Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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1179. Grothar
Quoting ycd0108:
Grothar:
We are around.
Maybe your time zone (or mine). What are you doing up at this hour in Florida, anyway?
Good pictures!


What zone are you in?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting Grothar:


Why Miss EYES, how did I miss you. How you doing. I just put presslord to bed. I told him to say Good Night Gracie! Do you remember that line, or does a gentleman not ask a lady that? LOL


LOL...oh yes...loved George and Gracie! Did ya see the post where I said my father was in the CCC and helped plant those trees? He loved to talk about those days...he was only 17 and had never been away from home....but loved his time with them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1177. Grothar
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


+1000 and a goodnight to you Vet


Why Miss EYES, how did I miss you. How you doing. I just put presslord to bed. I told him to say Good Night Gracie! Do you remember that line, or does a gentleman not ask a lady that? LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1176. Grothar
Quoting presslord:


.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....


Say Good night, Gracie!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1175. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


In all seriousness, you truly are a very valuable asset to the blog.

I thank you for the steady presence you maintain and your broad, informed perspective, Doctor.

I hope everyone has an excellent night. :)


Wish you would drop in more often PSL. Take care.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


In all seriousness, you truly are a very valuable asset to the blog.

I thank you for the steady presence you maintain and your broad, informed perspective, Doctor.

I hope everyone has an excellent night. :)


+1000 and a goodnight to you Vet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
I can't sleep........somebody tell me a story.....


Once upon a time, Louisiana had a wet climate, with daily afternoon thunderstorms generated by strong heating common in the summer. It also typically experienced mild, wet winters. Beginning last winter, however, its climate gradually shifted to that of an arid one. The result? Extremely dry ground.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
Quoting Grothar:


That's cause you were brought up proper! How you doing, Canes?


Well, and yourself?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1171. Grothar
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Groth....is this you?
Link


No, but I remember that well. We used to wait for it on the Steve Allen Show. I still have the original album. In case some of you don't know what an album is, picture a really big CD in a cardboard cover.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting Grothar:



Once upon a time, long, long ago, before there were two Carolinas, there lived a..................


.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1169. ycd0108
Those brownies must be past "best Before".
Ten Years ago I had one or two too many. 'Course there was no Wunderground then so I made it up to bed and my wife eventually came up and pulled the covers over me.
T'anks God I did not have a keyboard.
(I know there was internet and wunder back then - but I was catatonnick, maybe still am)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Little known fact. The Peshtigo fire in Wisconsin on the same day killed thousands of people and it was hardly reported. I may be wrong, but I believe it remains one of the worst fire disasters in our countries history.

p.s. Rumor had it that it was really Mrs. O'Brian who started it.


In all seriousness, you truly are a very valuable asset to the blog.

I thank you for the steady presence you maintain and your broad, informed perspective, Doctor.

I hope everyone has an excellent night. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1167. Grothar
Quoting presslord:
I can't sleep........somebody tell me a story.....



Once upon a time, long, long ago, before there were two Carolinas, there lived a..................
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, you are all here. I was, but it was nothing compared to the dust when they were building those pyramids. You think it is easy carrying 2000 lbs stones sideways. They made us walk that way.
Groth....is this you?
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't sleep........somebody tell me a story.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1164. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



A silent witness to Mrs. O'Leary's cow? You holdin' out on us, Grothar? hehehe


Little known fact. The Peshtigo fire in Wisconsin on the same day killed thousands of people and it was hardly reported. I may be wrong, but I believe it remains one of the worst fire disasters in our countries history.

p.s. Rumor had it that it was really Mrs. O'Brian who started it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1162. Grothar
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm around. Just thought you were around well before the dust bowl.


Boy, you are all here. I was, but it was nothing compared to the dust when they were building those pyramids. You think it is easy carrying 2000 lbs stones sideways. They made us walk that way.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1161. jazzie
Quoting Grothar:


How do you know I am a Doctor?


I happen to be lucky enough to be on the blog the night you posted that picture.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1160. Grothar
Quoting ycd0108:
Grothar:
We are around.
Maybe your time zone (or mine). What are you doing up at this hour in Florida, anyway?
Good pictures!


Ate some of aqua's brownies. They'll do that to you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1159. aquak9
What's left of'm, Gro. Looks like mice got into them...ain't no one under this roof can cut straight.

If we had a dust bowl scenario today, it would be so much worse, because of all the pesticides, fungicides, fertilizers, etc that's been laid down on the soil.

Not trying to SCARE anyone....
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26487
Nite all. More exciting weather down the road.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1157. Grothar
Quoting jazzie:
Dr. Grother, thanks for that insight on the Dust Bowl, your humor, all the great info and knowledge you give to this blog.
I never post here, I jusr lurk but you are on of the reasons I stay.

Dr. Grother, thanks for that insight on the Dust Bowl, your humor, all the great info and knowledge you give to this blog.
I never post here, I just lurk but you are on of the reasons I stay.


How do you know I am a Doctor?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1156. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:
Good late evening from NE Fla, ya'll. Good reading back. Love being able to come here, read and learn so much.

The back and forth of questions, comments, and info here is amazing.

A few brownies left, help yourselves, finish them off. I already ate all the edges.


Still hitting those brownies, are you? tsk tsk
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm around. Just thought you were around well before the dust bowl.



A silent witness to Mrs. O'Leary's cow? You holdin' out on us, Grothar? hehehe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1154. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Because no one remembers to refresh the page, like me :(


That's cause you were brought up proper! How you doing, Canes?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1153. ycd0108
Grothar:
We are around.
Maybe your time zone (or mine). What are you doing up at this hour in Florida, anyway?
Good pictures!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm around. Just thought you were around well before the dust bowl.
He was around during certain happenings on the Nile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)


I read your posts, and I appreciate you bringing these facts to the blog.

Thank you, Kind and Gentle Gro. Kudos. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)
I'm around. Just thought you were around well before the dust bowl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1149. jazzie
Dr. Grother, thanks for that insight on the Dust Bowl, your humor, all the great info and knowledge you give to this blog.
I never post here, I jusr lurk but you are on of the reasons I stay.
Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)


Dr. Grother, thanks for that insight on the Dust Bowl, your humor, all the great info and knowledge you give to this blog.
I never post here, I just lurk but you are on of the reasons I stay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1148. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting twincomanche:
OK I am Swiss cheese.


Lol. Me too I guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1146. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
Drought comes and goes in various parts of the Country and always have. We need to understand this and learn how to deal with it painful as it seems. Knowledge really helps in how to deal with the dry periods.


Yes, very true. They know through studies now, that droughts like that happened previously in that area and will happen again. If someone has enough interst, they should look up the Ogallala Aquifer and see what a delicate balance we must maintain to keep our farming land productive.

here is the link


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting Grothar:
Many people are unaware that the lines of trees which you can still see were done in this manner.

Excerpt from Chrome history site

In April 1935, Bennett was on his way to testify before a Congressional committee about his soil conservation campaign when he learned of a dust storm blowing into the capitol from the western plains. At last, he believed that he would have tangible evidence of the results of bad farming practices. As the dust settled over Washington and blotted out the midday sun, Bennett exclaimed, "This, gentlemen, is what I have been talking about." Congress responded by passing the Soil Conservation Act of 1935. In addition, the Roosevelt administration put its full weight and authority behind the improvement of farming techniques to prevent a recurrence of the Dust Bowl.

President Roosevelt ordered that the Civilian Conservation Corps plant a huge belt of more than 200 million trees from Canada to Abilene, Texas, to break the wind, hold water in the soil, and hold the soil itself in place. The administration also began to educate farmers on soil conservation and anti-erosion techniques, including crop rotation, strip farming, contour plowing, terracing and other beneficial farming practices.



My father was with the CCC and helped plant those trees.....I've heard the story many times. Appreciate that Grothar......times were hard then..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)


Because no one remembers to refresh the page, like me :(
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1143. aquak9
Good late evening from NE Fla, ya'll. Good reading back. Love being able to come here, read and learn so much.

The back and forth of questions, comments, and info here is amazing.

A few brownies left, help yourselves, finish them off. I already ate all the edges.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26487
Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)
OK I am Swiss cheese.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1141. Grothar
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting Grothar:



What surprises me is that "The Dust Bowl" was one of the greatest disaster to ever hit this country, and so few are familiar with it. I read "Grapes of Wrath" in 1954 and went to the Library and read everything I could about it. And, I am really not being funny, here, but I was in Germany at the time and read it in German. The many things that were put in place after that disaster are still in place today.
Drought comes and goes in various parts of the Country and always have. We need to understand this and learn how to deal with it painful as it seems. Knowledge really helps in how to deal with the dry periods.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1139. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Wow. That's really cool.



This would be a very good subject for a paper. I did one in High School and one in college. (Actually is was the same one, but I used bigger words in the second one) It was one of the worst weather related disasters in the U.S. which actually changed the way we live today. I know you will find is fascinating.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1138. Grothar
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


How horrible. :( Lets hope that never happens again.


If you are from Texas, you might find the excerpt I just posted especially interesting. It involves your state which was also hit very badly during that period.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1137. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:
Many people are unaware that the lines of trees which you can still see were done in this manner.

Excerpt from Chrome history site

In April 1935, Bennett was on his way to testify before a Congressional committee about his soil conservation campaign when he learned of a dust storm blowing into the capitol from the western plains. At last, he believed that he would have tangible evidence of the results of bad farming practices. As the dust settled over Washington and blotted out the midday sun, Bennett exclaimed, "This, gentlemen, is what I have been talking about." Congress responded by passing the Soil Conservation Act of 1935. In addition, the Roosevelt administration put its full weight and authority behind the improvement of farming techniques to prevent a recurrence of the Dust Bowl.

President Roosevelt ordered that the Civilian Conservation Corps plant a huge belt of more than 200 million trees from Canada to Abilene, Texas, to break the wind, hold water in the soil, and hold the soil itself in place. The administration also began to educate farmers on soil conservation and anti-erosion techniques, including crop rotation, strip farming, contour plowing, terracing and other beneficial farming practices.



Wow. That's really cool.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
1136. Grothar
Many people are unaware that the lines of trees which you can still see were done in this manner.

Excerpt from Chrome history site

In April 1935, Bennett was on his way to testify before a Congressional committee about his soil conservation campaign when he learned of a dust storm blowing into the capitol from the western plains. At last, he believed that he would have tangible evidence of the results of bad farming practices. As the dust settled over Washington and blotted out the midday sun, Bennett exclaimed, "This, gentlemen, is what I have been talking about." Congress responded by passing the Soil Conservation Act of 1935. In addition, the Roosevelt administration put its full weight and authority behind the improvement of farming techniques to prevent a recurrence of the Dust Bowl.

President Roosevelt ordered that the Civilian Conservation Corps plant a huge belt of more than 200 million trees from Canada to Abilene, Texas, to break the wind, hold water in the soil, and hold the soil itself in place. The administration also began to educate farmers on soil conservation and anti-erosion techniques, including crop rotation, strip farming, contour plowing, terracing and other beneficial farming practices.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting Grothar:
Excerpt from Wessels:

The Dust Bowl got its name after Black Sunday, April 14, 1935. More and more dust storms had been blowing up in the years leading up to that day. In 1932, 14 dust storms were recorded on the Plains. In 1933, there were 38 storms. By 1934, it was estimated that 100 million acres of farmland had lost all or most of the topsoil to the winds. By April 1935, there had been weeks of dust storms, but the cloud that appeared on the horizon that Sunday was the worst. Winds were clocked at 60 mph. Then it hit.


This image is from 1934. Black Sunday storm was 1935 previously posted





How horrible. :( Lets hope that never happens again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We had a nice little thunderstorm in Metairie this PM. I opened the windows so I could smell all that ozone. But they are saying the heat's on next week again as the high builds in from Texas. We want it partly sunny tomorrow. 3 festivals wrapping up tomorrow in French Quarter. LA Seafood, Zydeco and Creole Tomato Festivals.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1133. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
Our cultivation and tillage practices are way more enlightened than back then along with I believe it is not near as dry.



What surprises me is that "The Dust Bowl" was one of the greatest disaster to ever hit this country, and so few are familiar with it. I read "Grapes of Wrath" in 1954 and went to the Library and read everything I could about it. And, I am really not being funny, here, but I was in Germany at the time and read it in German. The many things that were put in place after that disaster are still in place today.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1132. Grothar
Excerpt from Wessels:

The Dust Bowl got its name after Black Sunday, April 14, 1935. More and more dust storms had been blowing up in the years leading up to that day. In 1932, 14 dust storms were recorded on the Plains. In 1933, there were 38 storms. By 1934, it was estimated that 100 million acres of farmland had lost all or most of the topsoil to the winds. By April 1935, there had been weeks of dust storms, but the cloud that appeared on the horizon that Sunday was the worst. Winds were clocked at 60 mph. Then it hit.


This image is from 1934. Black Sunday storm was 1935 previously posted



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
Quoting Grothar:
There are some estimates of over 25,000 people dying directly due to the dust storms during this period.

Our cultivation and tillage practices are way more enlightened than back then along with I believe it is not near as dry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1130. Grothar
The "Black Sunday" Dust storm

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
1129. Grothar
There are some estimates of over 25,000 people dying directly due to the dust storms during this period.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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