Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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Quoting FrankZapper:
Does anyone have an MJO forecast for the GOM, Caribbean and Western Atlantic for the meat of the season(mid Aug thru Sept)?
I don't think they do forecasts that far out for the MJO.

One thing you can look at however, are the seasonal model forecasts for precipitation and mslp, as well as SST anomalies. I would think forecasted greater precipitation, lower mslp, as well as above normal SSTs in a basin would favor the idea that when the MJO finally reaches that basin, it would be stronger than usual and possibly last longer than usual.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting TomTaylor:
One last thing before I sign off, how does the MJO affect t wave exit latitude?
I don't want to hog the spotlight Levi, but I don't know if you're still around so I thought I'd answer his question.

Tom, I am not entirely sure, but I wager that during the peak months of the season, when SSTs are warmest in the eastern Atlantic, the upward phase of the MJO is in full force in that region whenever it comes around, effectively causing a northward migration of the ITCZ.

Conversely, if the negative phase is present, the ITCZ is more southward, and thus waves come off farther south as well.
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Quoting Levi32:


I haven't researched that, but that could be a part of it. However, it should also be noted that tropical wave amplitude and exit latitude is affected strongly by the MJO, so there is still a modulation of tropical wave activity there. That said, I think you are right that the waves have a better chance at development without the MJO than the monsoonal lows do.
ok thanks for your input, and I agree that the MJO still helps t waves develop into tropical storms. One last thing before I sign off, how does the MJO affect t wave exit latitude?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Does anyone have an MJO forecast for the GOM, Caribbean and Western Atlantic for the meat of the season(mid Aug thru Sept)?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

My state is NSW(New South Wales) we have an unemployment rate of 5.4%, there was 20,000 jobs advertised in May, down 7000 from April. Is your unemployment rate going up or down?


Here in Southwest Washington it's officially 14.9%, unofficially (they don't count those that no longer qualify for unemployment) is 20%. Lewis county.
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1224. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Levi, do you think the fact that a majority of the storms during the peak of the season come from waves emerging off of africa has somethig to do with it?

I know the MJO influences waves as it does with monsoonal lows, but since t waves already have vorticity and structure associated with them, I am inclined to believe that Monsoonal lows are more dependent on MJO phases.


I haven't researched that, but that could be a part of it. However, it should also be noted that tropical wave amplitude and exit latitude is affected strongly by the MJO, so there is still a modulation of tropical wave activity there. That said, I think you are right that the waves have a better chance at development without the MJO than the monsoonal lows do.
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Quoting iahishome:


Hi Tom,

I don't know what part of Southern California you're in, but I'm certainly not complaining. I haven't had to run the air conditioner yet. I'm in Colton.

Afternoons are barely reaching 80 thus far, though that's been warm enough to hit the water park today with my kids. It's been an awesome day! It looks like we'll hit 90 by Tuesday. Hopefully it doesn't last...

Tropics look quiet except for Adrian... I'm all for a trough picking up his remnants next week and sending some rain into the desert Southwest... Gro, can you make that happen for us, you know, put it a good word with our maker, since you were around when he made it?
San Diego near the coast
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting Levi32:


Statistically, a very small percentage of early-season storms develop without the support of the MJO (having the upward motion phase over the Atlantic). In the peak months of the season, that percentage increases. The majority of storms still develop when the MJO is favorable, but a greater percentage is able to develop without the MJO's direct support. I believe this is because overall conditions are much more fragile for development in the early season, and thus taking away the support of the MJO generally shuts down all possibilities for tropical development. During the peak of the season, taking away the MJO isn't as much of a problem, though it still greatly reduces tropical activity.
Levi, do you think the fact that a majority of the storms during the peak of the season come from waves emerging off of africa has somethig to do with it?

I know the MJO influences waves as it does with monsoonal lows, but since t waves already have vorticity and structure associated with them, I am inclined to believe that Monsoonal lows are more dependent on MJO phases.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, with our Govt bringing in a stupid carbon tax, it's going to practically end all manufacturing here in Australia and send it to China. Oh and they did say before the last election back in August last year there would be no carbon tax, then February this year they said there would be. If there was another Election in the coming months, the current govt would lose badly.


That's unfortunate.

When is the next election for you guys?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It went up slightly (+0.7%) in April; the May statistics aren't yet released.

Well, with our Govt bringing in a stupid carbon tax, it's going to practically end all manufacturing here in Australia and send it to China. Oh and they did say before the last election back in August last year there would be no carbon tax, then February this year they said there would be. If there was another Election in the coming months, the current govt would lose badly.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

My state is NSW(New South Wales) we have an unemployment rate of 5.4%, there was 20,000 jobs advertised in May, down 7000 from April. Is your unemployment rate going up or down?


It went up slightly (+0.7%) in April; the May statistics aren't yet released.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Not sure about locally, but nationally, it's about 9.2%, last I heard.

My state is NSW(New South Wales) we have an unemployment rate of 5.4%, there was 20,000 jobs advertised in May, down 7000 from April. Is your unemployment rate going up or down?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


DAng, always pictured you as older.


I definitely feel older than I actually am. Not physically, mind you, but in terms of maturity. I actually shake my head at how misguided my generation is. :(
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Luck job hunting. Btw, whats the unemployment rate there atm, here it's 4.5%.
Not sure about locally, but nationally, it's about 9.2%, last I heard.
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Well, I better get some rest....night all :))
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It never left here in Mississippi. Lol.


hahahaha, thats so true. Probably alabama neither.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


LOLOL....you know that is true....but..."my kin not in"........


I don't know anyone that's in it, thank God. I wouldn't want to know them. Unfortunately, they are still around here in MS somewhere, in small numbers, though.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It never left here in Mississippi. Lol.


LOLOL....you know that is true....but..."my kin not in"........
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The KKK is back?!


Yes, he's back...lol..love to read his stuff...another Hemingway, I say...
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The KKK is back?!


It never left here in Mississippi. Lol.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I do remember that , old Cosmic :) and BTW the KKKid is back, and writes just as good as ever....


The KKK is back?!
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GFS consistently shows something developing in the SW Caribbean/GOM in the long range:

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Quoting aquak9:

That is a beautiful story. I always wondered about your screen name. Thank you for sharing that with us.

Kori- with your class, you should be able to get a good job. You handle people well.

Aussie- I will take your kind-hearted advice, and carry myself to the horizontal. Bless you all for being such good people.

Go in peace.


Goodnight Aqua :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm 20. Since I am not burdened by schoolwork (until I go to university), I can afford to stay up late. However, that will soon change, as I am going job hunting next month, and intend to find one with decent hours; hours that will require I wake up early.


DAng, always pictured you as older.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
It would be interesting to know the derivation of a lot of member's screen names. Usually it's something unexpected, like your's. Mine, which I revealed late last year just before I put her to sleep, is derived from my old dog's name, Cosmic.


I do remember that , old Cosmic :) and BTW the KKKid is back, and writes just as good as ever....
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1202. aquak9
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


LOL, yeah, that was a little before Cheney's time. One more thing about my dad....he was an avid deepsea fisherman...in later years he went blind, but my brother still took him out to catch those big redfish...his boat was named "EYEStoSEA"

That is a beautiful story. I always wondered about your screen name. Thank you for sharing that with us.

Kori- with your class, you should be able to get a good job. You handle people well.

Aussie- I will take your kind-hearted advice, and carry myself to the horizontal. Bless you all for being such good people.

Go in peace.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26054
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm 20. Since I am not burdened by schoolwork (until I go to university), I can afford to stay up late. However, that will soon change, as I am going job hunting next month, and intend to find one with decent hours; hours that will require I wake up early.

Good Luck job hunting. Btw, whats the unemployment rate there atm, here it's 4.5%.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


LOL, yeah, that was a little before Cheney's time. One more thing about my dad....he was an avid deepsea fisherman...in later years he went blind, but my brother still took him out to catch those big redfish...his boat was named "EYEStoSEA"
It would be interesting to know the derivation of a lot of member's screen names. Usually it's something unexpected, like your's. Mine, which I revealed late last year just before I put her to sleep, is derived from my old dog's name, Cosmic.
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I should have known better than to try to post on-topic information this late. I could hear my own echo when I posted that stuff up there. ^^^ :-)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Doesn't anyone here go to bed, It's almost 1am there, go to bed will ya's get ya energy levels up for the upcoming season.


Hey Aussie, it's only 12 here...lol...I'm retired and stay up as long as I like !! Waiting on that season !!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Doesn't anyone here go to bed, It's almost 1am there, go to bed will ya's get ya energy levels up for the upcoming season.
I'm 20. Since I am not burdened by schoolwork (until I go to university), I can afford to stay up late. However, that will soon change, as I am going job hunting next month, and intend to find one with decent hours; hours that will require I wake up early.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's because he wasn't around for Cheney. Seriously, that's a mighty compliment to a man's character. I wish my son could say the same about me....one day.


LOL, yeah, that was a little before Cheney's time. One more thing about my dad....he was an avid deepsea fisherman...in later years he went blind, but my brother still took him out to catch those big redfish...his boat was named "EYEStoSEA"
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Something interesting I've been noticing is how moist the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic has been as compared to normal. Normally this time of the year, it's bone dry north of about 15N. See the color in the Gulf? That brown color is usually in the Eastern Atlantic. I haven't seen the Eastern Atlantic any drier this season than it is now and that is very interesting to me. It's normally dominated by SAL. This tells me that the SAL could have little to no effect on tropical waves emerging from Africa early in the season. I even read where TPWs are well above average for the Eastern Atlantic and that makes sense from looking at water vapor. Would not be surprised at all to have an early season tropical wave try to develop if shear and SSTs permit...

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Doesn't anyone here go to bed, It's almost 1am there, go to bed will ya's get ya energy levels up for the upcoming season.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


He was a great man....and you know, your post are always positive...havent seen any negativity :)
I strive to be positive and not speak ill of others. Unfortunately, I do fail from time to time. Eventually, perhaps, I will slip here, although I hope not.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Your dad sounds very admirable. I humbly admit that I am guilty of doing the opposite.


He was a great man....and you know, your post are always positive...havent seen any negativity :)
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


,...but even if it was hard for him...he wasnt the kind to complain...Never heard my dad say a negative thing about anyone in my entire life...
That's because he wasn't around for Cheney. Seriously, that's a mighty compliment to a man's character. I wish my son could say the same about me....one day.
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Quoting Grothar:


Getting tired. It was fun tonight. Just hope all that need rain get it. Nite, Canes. Nite Everybody! Somebody may have to wake presslord up in the morning. I may have induced coma with my story to him.


Night Grothar!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553

Quoting EYEStoSEA:

Never heard my dad say a negative thing about anyone in my entire life...
Your dad sounds very admirable. I humbly admit that I am guilty of doing the opposite.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Now that you've potentially opened up a can of worms, I won't have myself to blame for discussing the issue. ;)

I have actually been thinking about this. I realize that no single weather event can be attributed to global warming, but the myriad of weather extremes experienced thus far in 2011 seriously makes me ponder that, perhaps it is possible that AGW is at least partially to blame.

One thing is certain: humankind grossly underestimates our ability to alter our climate.


But you know, the weather we have had this year has been really typical of a La Nina. Large tornado numbers and extreme drought are pretty typical of La Nina years, especially second year La Nina events. I think we just got unlucky this year with the violent tornadoes going through heavily populated areas. Extreme heat and cold...I'm not so sure about...
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Quoting Grothar:


Just went back to see if I missed anything and saw it. He actually planted them? They put those poor people in these camps and kept them away for months. It really was a terrible time. Thousands of families were separated and it caused a massive migration, as I am sure you know. Did he ever say where he was?


Oh yes, he was in a camp in La first....there they cut trees and built bridges....then went to Texas to plant trees. He talked fondly of his times, especially all the good food,...but even if it was hard for him...he wasnt the kind to complain...Never heard my dad say a negative thing about anyone in my entire life...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Now that you've potentially opened up a can of worms, I won't have myself to blame for discussing the issue. ;)

I have actually been thinking about this. I realize that no single weather event can be attributed to global warming, but the myriad of weather extremes experienced thus far in 2011 seriously makes me ponder that, perhaps it is possible that AGW is at least partially to blame.

One thing is certain: humankind grossly underestimates our ability to alter our climate.


Yeah, I've been on the fence the whole time about the issue. However, with the extremes that we continue to experience, I just have to wonder.
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1185. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Well, and you?


Getting tired. It was fun tonight. Just hope all that need rain get it. Nite, Canes. Nite Everybody! Somebody may have to wake presslord up in the morning. I may have induced coma with my story to him.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26483
Quoting Grothar:


That's cause you were brought up proper! How you doing, Canes?


Well, and you?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1183. aquak9
ok, I have a story.

Hubby and I just put some meat(his and hers) in the fridge to marinade. His, were two flank steaks. Mine, was a big brisket. My brisket was all thick and white on one side, a thick layer of fat, as it should be.

He grabs both of the bags of meat, smushes all the marinade around, and says "Hey! your backside is all covered with fat!"

The ambulance arrived quickly.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26054
Quoting MississippiWx:


Should I or should I not? Ah, what the heck...

Human-induced global warming/climate change?


Now that you've potentially opened up a can of worms, I won't have myself to blame for discussing the issue. ;)

I have actually been thinking about this. I realize that no single weather event can be attributed to global warming, but the myriad of weather extremes experienced thus far in 2011 seriously makes me ponder that, perhaps it is possible that AGW is at least partially to blame.

One thing is certain: humankind grossly underestimates our ability to alter our climate.
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1181. Grothar
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


LOL...oh yes...loved George and Gracie! Did ya see the post where I said my father was in the CCC and helped plant those trees? He loved to talk about those days...he was only 17 and had never been away from home....but loved his time with them.


Just went back to see if I missed anything and saw it. He actually planted them? They put those poor people in these camps and kept them away for months. It really was a terrible time. Thousands of families were separated and it caused a massive migration, as I am sure you know. Did he ever say where he was?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26483
Quoting KoritheMan:


Once upon a time, Louisiana had a wet climate, with daily afternoon thunderstorms generated by strong heating common in the summer. It also typically experienced mild, wet winters. Beginning last winter, however, its climate gradually shifted to that of an arid one. The result? Extremely dry ground.


Should I or should I not? Ah, what the heck...

Human-induced global warming/climate change?
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1179. Grothar
Quoting ycd0108:
Grothar:
We are around.
Maybe your time zone (or mine). What are you doing up at this hour in Florida, anyway?
Good pictures!


What zone are you in?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26483

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.